Archive for October 2007

Stan O’Neal is having the best day ever. We’re pretty sure he’s getting ready to pull the old “I just got fired” thing that our little brother did back when the market crashed in 2001. You know, that’s where you take your box of belongings and stolen office supplies into the bar and get everyone to buy you drinks because you just got laid off. (This worked so well to get free drinks for our brother that he has been doing this for about six years now.)
Wait. What were talking about? Oh. Right. Merrill Lynch. That’s pretty much all we’re talking about today. So, where were we?
Hmmm. Oh. Right. Again. We’re back.
So the share price of Merrill is shooting up (we already made that joke) while everyone talks about Stan O’Neal getting the boot. And we’re having one of those “dog that didn’t bark” moments. Ordinarily, when the lads get to yapping like this, a company will officially say it “does not comment on market speculation” but someone “familiar with the situation” will tell that David Faber fellow to quash the rumor.
And you know what’s not happening? There’s no anonymous sources quashing the rumor. If Stan wasn’t three steps from the door, someone would be giving a “not for attribution” denial about the rumor. But no one is. Dog not barking.

The Big “R”

Oil costs like a billion dollars a barrel now. And, according to a Bloomberg survey, 2/3 of the American public think we’re headed for a recession.
Of course, the “American public” is kind of dumb. As Barry Ritholtz says, they’ve predicted 9 out of the last four recessions. But just because you’re stupid doesn’t mean you’re wrong!

Americans Turn Negative on Economy, Expect Recession, Poll Says
[Bloomberg]
2/3rds Americans Say Recession is Likely [The Big Picture]

mozilo.jpgDespite a quarterly loss of $1.2 billion, compared to a profit of $647.6 million last year, Countrywide’s shares rose the most since May 2000 on the wishful thinking that the company will be profitable in the fourth quarter. Morgan Stanley’s Kenneth Posner said that his team feels “substantially more confident in the company’s liquidity after [their] first glance at the results.” Peter Plaut, an analyst at Sanno Point Capital Management even went so far as to call the mortgage lender “a survivor,” and congratulated it for turning results that “were not as bad as market participants anticipated.” President David Sambol characterized the Q3 loss as an “earnings trough,” and predicted that fourth-quarter profits could be anywhere from 25 to 75 cents per diluted share.
Countrywide Posts Loss, Shares Advance on Forecast [Bloomberg]
Countrywide Gets Off the Mat [MarketBeat]

Oh. Please. When will it end? Remember when we used to write about a variety of topics? Like proxy access, Halloween custumes, Bank of America, chocolate, backdating and Bess Levin’s nocturnal habits. That’s so over. Now it’s just Merrill. Merrill. Merrill Merrill.
Yes. We’ve got more Merrill on the brain. Our pal Charlie Gasparino is reporting that Merrill Lynch head honcho Stanley O’Neal has told “associates” (read: people who pretend they like you but are totally talking about you behind your back) that he’s likely to be ousted as CEO in the coming days as the big brokerage firm’s financial problems mount.
(See what we mean?)
Chuck G (who is totally unrelated to Flavor Flav and was never, ever in either Public Enemy or that band named for that shit that was going to kill us all in late 2001 but never did) says that John Thain and Larry Fink are in the running to run Merrill—despite their menacing names!
Also: hey. Enough with the halloween costumes. We’re totally writing more stuff now. Look up here!

Update:
That band was called Anthrax! Thanks anonymous tipster Hank Poll-Son!

Merrill’s O’Neal Adieu By Weekend
[CNBC.com]

Wow! Can we write about anything else? Apparently not. Yesterday was all about Bank of We Lost Your Money. Today it’s all Merrill Lynch all the time this morning. MerrillBreaker.
Anyway, Merrill shares are shooting up like, uhm, Sid Vicious on a good night with Nancy. (Or should that be a bad night? Whatevs.) And what seems to be driving the buying is the speculation that Merrill could do that thing that might get Stan O’Neal fired. You know, merge with the company we used to think was pronounced “Watch Ova Ya.”
But now Dangerous Dana Cimullica of Deal Journal is calling bullshit on the deal. According to Cimullica, the deal isn’t happening. Why? It’s over-determined!
• Wachovia top jock Ken Thompson may have chatted with Stan the Man, but he never took the issue to his own board. Hint: that means he doesn’t think a deal is in the works.
• Thompson’s totally worn out from merging with Golden West. Deals are hard!
• As it turns out, we still have anti-trust laws. And, apparently, people think that bringing the 15,000 strong thundering Merrill stampede together with Wachovia’s 10,000 brokers might tick off people who work for the government and think they know how big a brokerage should be.
• Also, the world is heavily populated by Chinese people and Arabs! And a lot of them are rich. Way before Wachovia got in on this deal, those rich foreign types would totally be in there buying up yer sherz.
• Actually, that might be what’s happeing right now! (Hey! This might mark the first time in recent memory that inexplicable market movements have been attributed to the Arabs. Michael “I banged the MTV chick” Lewis call you effin office.)

Why a Merrill-Wachovia Deal is Unlikely
[Wall Street Journal]

So, as it turns out, Stan O’Neal might not be fired for turning Merrill Lynch into a subprime hedge fund. But he may be fired for talking to Wachovia about a merger without first consulting with Merrill’s board. For reals!
“Facing billions of dollars in losses from the subprime mortgage crisis, Merrill Lynch chairman and chief executive, E. Stanley O’Neal, floated the idea of a merger with a large bank, a foray that angered Merrill’s board and could cost him his job, according to people close to the beleaguered Wall Street firm,” New York Times hottie Jenny Anderson and some other dude report.
Why fire O’Neal over this talking out of turn thing rather than the massive losses? Pay attention! You see, the losses stemmed from decisions that board of directors of the bank approved. So they can’t exactly fire Stan over that without admitting that they kind of suck too. But a phone call with someone at Wachovia that wasn’t authorized by the board? That’s it! He can totally be fired for that without indicting the board. The lesson: don’t answer the phone. Ever. Ev.Er.
Actually, we’re pretty sure this is such a cop-out that even Merrill’s board couldn’t really own up to it.
Merrill’s Chief Is Said to Consider a Bid to Merge [New York Times]

Halloween Costumes

Hey, what are you being for Halloween? Bess and I have been invited to a variety of Halloween parties and apparently Halloween falling in the middle of the week means that everyone feels entitled to tell you that you must wear a costume for, like, five days. Horrendous. Or even worse. So, we need your help. What should we dress up as this week.
We’ve got some conceptual ideas but we need your suggestions about how we should make these happen. Please let us know what you think the best ways to dress as the following.
• Credit Crunch.
• Oil roaring to record levels.
• Write downs.
• Ben Bernanke.
• Ben Bernake’s helicopter.
• Slutty Nasdaq.
• Slutty China.
• Slutty Warren Buffett.
• Slutty and Pregnant Becky Quick.
• Maria Bartiromo.
• Opec.
• Free furniture.
• Cheap chocolate.
• Proxy access.