Pay No Attention To Mounting Volatility

While everyone else was talking about the anniversary of “Black Monday” last week, we kept reminding anyone who would listen that it was not insignificant that the blackness of that day in 1987 fell on a Monday. The calendar may have read October 19th on Friday but today is a much better proxy for the day that the bottom fell out of the equities markets twenty-years ago. Black Monday, we think, is more like Easter Sunday—we should always commemorate the anniversary on a certain day of the week rather than have the calendar tell us that it’s Black Monday on a Friday.

And Friday was eerily close to the Friday before the original Black Monday. On that day twenty-years ago, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 4.6%. This past Friday we saw the Dow down 4.1% when the market closed. The Nasdaq saw it’s worst decline since the great Glitch of February. The S&P was down 5.2% in 1987, and 3.9% this past Friday.

Anxiety is everywhere, and not least in the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s implied volatility index. The Vix has climbed back to levels it hasn’t seen since the last week of July, just when the credit and equities markets decided to take a header. And this morning? We’re all over the place this morning. A sharp decline at the open, followed by a bit of a rally led by the Nasdaq. But that was short lived and now we’re back down in slightly negative territory. Which does, we hate to point out, bear a scary resemblance to both that day in 87 and a typical Thursday happy hour for DealBreaker.

It’s completely superstitious to think that market conditions will repeat on anniversaries. What are the odds, right? This two week run-up in the Vix is probably not really telling us anything at all. Market psychology, ten and twenty month trend lines, Fibonacci numbers and, for all we know, the Da Vinci Code all say the equities market will stabilize. Merrill Lynch reports on Thursday, and it only has suffered $5.5 billion in losses from the subprime mortgage market and credit crunch, providing you believe the very people who told us in July that their exposure to subprime was “limited.”

We can’t even talk about this stuff without getting sarcastic. Oh, hey, another market uptick. Maybe everything will be alright after all.

Comments

1

Posted by , Oct 22, 2007 11:49AM

Chicago Board of Exchange???

CBOE is chicago board options exchange


silly lawyers

2

Posted by Anon , Oct 22, 2007 12:12PM

Stop looking at 3 year VIX charts and take a look at a 10 or 15 year VIX chart. The VIX at 23 is hardly anything to get excited about.

3

Posted by , Oct 22, 2007 12:17PM

Brilliant 12:12....

Except that vix is a PRICE weighted (inversely) index against the SPX, so that spx at 300 is going to have a huge relative vix vs spx at 1500.

4

Posted by , Oct 22, 2007 12:21PM

12:17, the VIX is not an index of S&P500 prices (inverse or otherwise). Read the whitepaper again.

5

Posted by , Oct 22, 2007 12:31PM

12:12, 17 and 21, you guys are need to do battle using your pocket protectors and thick rimmed 1950s glasses (R McNamara style).

6

Posted by 12:12 , Oct 22, 2007 12:31PM

VIX levels have nothing to do with the absolute level of the SPX.

7

Posted by , Oct 22, 2007 12:43PM

where's bess?

8

Posted by John Carney , Oct 22, 2007 12:56PM

Bess is being held hostage by Chinese bankers. We've just obtained her release. Expect Bear Stearn's related posting from her shortly.

9

Posted by L'Emmerdeur , Oct 22, 2007 1:07PM

If Chinese bankers are holding her hostage, that is as good excuse as any to BUY CHINESE STOCKS.

Also, any update on that rumored Merrill emergency board meeting this weekend? I hope there were hookers. Stress relief is important at times like this.

10

Posted by Joe , Oct 22, 2007 1:17PM

The real question is when will we see the whites of the market's eyes?

11

Posted by UrAllNuts , Oct 22, 2007 1:22PM

People still use VIX? Jeez, the smart money bailed on that a long time ago.

The new indicator is the "FIX".

12

Posted by The "That's Too Much" Guy , Oct 22, 2007 1:31PM

I'm watching the reporting of the tragic fires in Malibu and the Sheriff was talking to TV reporters. The Sheriff has 5 stars on each lapel of his shirt!! I think the last 5 start heroes were Eisenhower and Marshall.

I am not a subscriber of first responders wearing a galaxy of "rank" stars on their lapels.

13

Posted by J , Oct 22, 2007 1:39PM

another good indicator of volatility is $/BRL - starting to tic up again.

14

Posted by Chris , Oct 22, 2007 3:19PM

@Anonymous, 12:31 -

Don't you have some unresolved breaks to fix or something?

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