The Big "R"

Posted by John Carney, Oct 26, 2007, 11:54am

Oil costs like a billion dollars a barrel now. And, according to a Bloomberg survey, 2/3 of the American public think we're headed for a recession.

Of course, the "American public" is kind of dumb. As Barry Ritholtz says, they've predicted 9 out of the last four recessions. But just because you're stupid doesn't mean you're wrong!


Americans Turn Negative on Economy, Expect Recession, Poll Says [Bloomberg]
2/3rds Americans Say Recession is Likely [The Big Picture]

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Posted in: Economic Indicators

Comments

Posted by FOXy, Oct 26, 2007 12:05PM

at risk of being yelled at by watchmen for commenting off-topic, why is FOX business broadcast with the background graphic of an aquarium? that is so weird!

Jenna Lee is totally slammin though

Posted by B W, Oct 26, 2007 12:06PM

Mozillo looks greasier than Langone and Grasso combined. I thought I've seen this before...anyone remember "Goodfellas"???? Millions vanishing???? Shareholders gettin sodomized?????

Posted by Too Easy, Oct 26, 2007 12:22PM

FOX Biz Channel is "fishy", that's why.

Posted by , Oct 26, 2007 12:30PM

The American public is stupid for predicting a recession. That doesn't sting so much assuming its coming from John "Black Monday 2K7" Carney.

People in glass houses...

Posted by economoy vey, Oct 26, 2007 12:35PM

it IS a bit late in the jobs cycle to see the economy slip into recession

Posted by dat, Oct 26, 2007 12:39PM

First, the the "predicted x+6 of the last x recessions" joke has been attributed to just about everyone now, but it's supposed to apply to economists. But if we're now applying it to average joes, what that really means is no one knows when a recession is coming, which is fine with me, because no one does know.

However, this is important because consumer expectations drive many of their decisions.

Posted by John Carney, Oct 26, 2007 12:48PM

Anon 12:30: You totally misread me! I don't think people are stupid for predicting a recession at all. I think that the public is shockingly (although perhaps rationally) ignorant. But I also think that this doesn't mean they are wrong. Which, I think, is what I said.

Posted by Barry Ritholtz, Oct 26, 2007 7:14PM

As I note in the post, Economists, as a group, have NEVER correctly predicted a recession:

They tend to be overly-optimistic as a profession. Some of it can be blamed on their employers, who tend to dislike negative sentiment as bad for business; Some of it can be blamed on the tools of profession, which are not particularly well suited for determining contractions in advance.

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