We’re kind of having a Ben Stein afternoon here at DealBreaker. We can’t seem to put his Sunday column down.
Earlier today we noted how his Sunday column rested on the nonsensical position that there was something unethical about shorting mortgage indexes while selling collateralized mortgage products. But the thing that seems to be getting the most attention around town is Stein’s sleazy smear against one of Goldman Sachs' leading economic analysts, Jan Hatzius. We want to talk about this but we can't even get straight what it is Stein is accusing Hatzuis of doing. (And we suspect Stein can't get it straight either.)
On the one hand, Stein points out that Goldman Sachs apparently sold collateralized mortgage products but—don’t try to follow this too closely or you’ll wind up stupider for having tried to think like Stein—one of it’s chief economists has said that the credit crunch may force banks, brokerages and hedge funds to cut lending by $2 trillion and trigger a recession.
“Doesn’t this bear some slight resemblance to Merrill selling tech stocks during the bubble while its analyst Henry Blodget was reportedly telling his friends what garbage they were?” Stein asks.
On the other hand, Ben Stein makes the opposite point: that Goldman’s chief economist is attempting to talk up a recession to help Goldman’s short positions.
“Here is my humble hypothesis, even after talking to Goldman: Is it possible that Dr. Hatzius’s paper was a device to help along the goal of success at bearish trades in this sector and in the market generally?” Stein asks. “His firm says his paper, like all of its economists’ work, was not written to support any larger short-trading strategy. But economists, like accountants, are artists. They have a tendency to paint what their patrons, who pay them, want to see.”
Goldman can’t win with Stein. If the sell credit products while shorting them he accuses them of being new-age stock pumpers. If they publish reports predicting dire consequences for the economy, he accuses them of creating fear to bolster their short positions.
Our humble hypothesis is that Stein has no idea what he’s saying. He can’t decide whether Goldman’s sin was selling products it doesn’t believe in or promoting a view of the credit markets it does believe in. His main column is a mess of innuendo and half thought out positions, mixed is misplaced populist bravado. It’s like he packed every nasty thing he could think of—without bother to actually think thought any of them—and then let them pour onto the pages of the New York Times, like so many clowns falling out of a tiny car.
Earlier on DealBreaker: Ben Stein's Crazed Attack On Goldman and Ben Stein's One Good Point.






Posted by Typing Out Loud , Dec 03, 2007 2:31PM
Stein is really, really well "connected" from his days as a Nixon speech writer and his celebrity days. So, I bet he was fed the GS stuff via some high ranking banker he knows who doesn't work at GS but perhaps wishes he/she did..
Stein is also a genial conservative (thankfully) and GS has been giving a lot of money to a non-conservative slate of candidates for the highest political office in our country. One wonders if Rudy or Rupert has been having morning coffee with him.
Posted by TheUnrepentantGunner , Dec 03, 2007 2:46PM
Incidentally, how are Ben's accusations any different than Ben being a hopeless and raging bull all while taking paychecks from a variety of investment groups, including the variable annuity association, which, is a group that would pray for the overall indexes to go up if there was one.
Oh yeah, I have it now. GS at least makes money. Ben was telling you to buy finance stocks in june.
Posted by Powell , Dec 03, 2007 2:51PM
Stein's view comes from the idea that if you underwrite a security, you are "supporting it" as a firm. Meaning if Goldman is selling CMOs to its clients in an underwriting that it believes the value will continue to go up. The old idea was that the issue was "backed" by the good name of the investment bank.
I don't know if any investor has taken this idea seriously for the past 20 years. Underwriters are their to make their fees and that is it; all the disclosures make that clear.
And the economist made his views on mortgages known. Clients of Goldman had access to his work; if they wanted to listen to him, they could have. But they didn't.
Look, people want separation within banks between underwriting, banking, and public research, so you got it. Don't expect these guys to be aligned in their view. Do expect them to all make money wherever they can.
At the end of the day Goldman makes money for its constituents, which are its shareholders and employees. Sophisticated investors all know this; those who bought CMOs and lost all their money have no one to blame but themselves.
Posted by michael schumacher , Dec 03, 2007 3:25PM
Powell-
You think that GS made money for it's clients?
Take a look at the last 8 and 10-k to see how much money GS made with it's own money as opposed to the client's money.
IT's quite surprising to see Goldman seem to make all the correct moves with it's own money yet fail miserable for it's "shareholders" or retail folks like you and me.
Not even one bad trade....as reported from it's own internal desk (or at least what they made public)
unless you have more than several mil. located at GS you did'nt do 1/10th of what they did with it's own money of course.
Posted by Matt , Dec 03, 2007 4:17PM
I think reading this article might help all of you out there with a problem in seeing what GS did wrong:
http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/15/markets/junk_mortgages.fortune/index.htm
They basically bought sh*t, painted lipstick on it, sold it off and shorted everyone who bought it. This tranche GSAMPTrust-2006 S3, was created a year ago.
It's pure crap. Now one could argue that GS taking the X trache absolves it, because it seems to have lost money on the deal. The problem is, you and I have NO IDEA if GS leveraged the bejezzus out it, to post monster profits when everyone else is getting killed.
GS and the credit rating agencies colluded and sold crappy second mortgages that were backed up basically by the word of the borrower.
GS knew they were sh*t and sold them and had no problem whatsoever with letting Moody's and S&P know these were pure junk.
Meanwhile, Moody's and S&P dropped the ball so badly as to baffle the mind. They didn't know that the loan to value of the issue's borrowers was 99.29%?! How would that possibly comply with investment grade!?
Appalling.
Posted by Matt , Dec 03, 2007 4:22PM
Was supposed to say: "GS knew they were sh*t and sold them and had no problem whatsoever with NOT letting Moody's and S&P know these were pure junk."
And I'd like to add: Either that, or the Credit Ratings Agencies didn't bother to vett the issue.
Posted by bo , Dec 04, 2007 4:45PM
can anybody show the link or source to the recent paper by Jan Hatzius? I'd like to peruse that article.