Fed funds and discount window. The talk all morning has been that this was coming. The Fed had no stomach for testing the lows.
Why did the Fed swing so hard in favor of cuts? It’s hard to escape the impression that the Fed is taking orders from the stock markets. Forget the blather about credit and housing markets; the Fed could have waited till the regular meeting to deal with those problems. Today’s cut is all too clearly a response to the action in the global equities markets. So what is the market saying now? The fed fund futures market is already predicting/demanding another cut at the regular meeting at the regular meeting. Cramerica is saying that this cut is “too little, too late.”
Our sources say that the view within the Fed right now is that there’s at least another 25 basis points coming at the end of the month. But the view within the Fed keeps changing every few weeks, so maybe we should stop wondering what the Fed is planning.
Full release after the jump.
Release Date: January 22, 2008
For immediate release
The Federal Open Market Committee has decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate 75 basis points to 3-1/2 percent.
The Committee took this action in view of a weakening of the economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth. While strains in short-term funding markets have eased somewhat, broader financial market conditions have continued to deteriorate and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households. Moreover, incoming information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets.
The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, but it will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.
Appreciable downside risks to growth remain. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act in a timely manner as needed to address those risks.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Charles L. Evans; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Eric S. Rosengren; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was William Poole, who did not believe that current conditions justified policy action before the regularly scheduled meeting next week. Absent and not voting was Frederic S. Mishkin.
In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 75-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago and Minneapolis.
is this “weekend at ber(nank)ies”
keep propping up the dead man
We could use another 25 bps at noon.,,, The Fed should have beaten expectations not met them.
So someone check my math, does this mean negative real rates?
Thank you helicopter Ben
2 little 2 late
see ya in June
Jim Cramer just said that he has been calling a bear market for a while. Man! is that guy a shameless liar or what?
8:49
You could argue he’s been calling for a Bear market since his “they know nothing” speech back in August
Hey, hes right 60% of the time, everytime!
No, he’s just a liar. He quickly recovered from the they know nothing speech….
thats a pretty good hit rate
Poole dissenting, what a nut!
still think the “they know nothing” tirade was more about his wall street buddies (ie. his paycheck) getting stuck with losing positions – not tha same thing as a bear market
I think cramer just challenged rick santelli to a duel on the steps of Treasury. what a whacko. Bear market? He plugs 25 stocks a show. He is the Donald trump of CNBC.
FMOC is weak. They should have cut friday, i mean cutting a week before a meeting is kinda silly. So much more fat could have been squeezed out of the market before the meeting, then cutting would have actually helped the economy.
Clearly the fed is not paying attention to the global markets, but rather to the Donald, who called for 1.5% cut. They’re just doing it in 2 phases.
F’ huge rate cuts. The streets will flow with the blood, I say let ‘em bleed
Anal_yst, you continue to be my favorite poster.
Bleed this shit for all it’s worth!
Down 450 already. Here we go.
Good time to be short real estate. That is, currently in a rental with two roommates but with your eye on a nice co-op.
Talking about cramer and they know nothing speech did’t he say he would buy wamu and get the dividend? if memory holds the stock was about 32 then and haven’t they cut their dividend?
Bush and others to discuss economy at 2:40EST.
Early Transcript:
“Tax cuts, F the Dems, Tax cuts, Clinton got a BJ in office, Tax cuts, stay the course”
Astounding. Every strategiest (excepting the UBS guy) is bearish. Bullish contrary indicator, I suppose. But a 3500 bounce in SP? I wouldn’t fuck this market with your dick.
who the hell looks at the dow? friggin retail investors.
@09:56
You just made my day.
at the regular meeting at the regular meeting at the regular meeting at the regular meeting at the regular meeting at the regular meeting
this morning felt like a shopping spree
@ John T -
WaMu cut their div by 73% weeks ago.
im an index buyer.
Poole said “why now when the meeting is next week?” agreeing with 9:22.
The Fed is being wagged by the stock market, on the strange delusion that the 95% of the economy not directly involved in the market is either (1) irrelevant (if you’re cyncial) or (2) already on life support and needs to be propped up (if you’re Bernanke studying the Great Depression).
@10:18 Ha
Congratulations. Talk to you in 2 weeks. (And if you make it though 2 years, you can probably be quite happy with the companies that are left.)
This feels more like a shorting spree. Just like every other Fed cut day.
Really think everything is cured with Ben having executed on what the market was already prognosticating?
GET TO DA CHOPPA!!! -The Bernankinator
Dear Phil,
When McDonalds is making commercials punning on a week dollar, CNN.com has a sobbing floor-trader on the front page, real rates are negative, internals are oversold in epic proportions with the market pricing in unrealistic multiple contraction and the night operators orchestrate a shock-and-awe a.m. futures plunge, you do not call your broker and short a few more lots of the Qs…
Of course they will retest the lows, and then the indexes will take off like NDX just stole something. The bottom? Doubtful, but then I don’t care. I’ll check back in 2 weeks to see how you enjoyed the squeeze…
I squeeze myself enough to withstand anything the market can dole out. Stops are for quitters! But seriously not shorting further at that/this level.
And who knows, you may be right. I just don’t think so.
We’ll see.
“week” dollar?
Someone corrected someone else’s strategy like this?
:-))