
Regional Indexes Rebound (WSJ)
It's been a volatile week and it's only Wednesday. After two days of fear, the foreign markets reversed course, with several former big losers surging by 5 percent. The big winner was Hong Kong, which tacked on a cool 10.7 percent. Japan sort of lagged, gaining only 2. So will we take our cues from abroad?
U.S. Futures Fall, Point to Sixth Straight Drop for S&P 500 (Bloomberg)
Probably not. It's sort of hard to get excited about a rate cut and a surge overseas when iPod unit sales are only growing by 5 percent and when the growth story of the decade reports conservative first quarter guidance. In addition, we've got eBay and Motorola on tap today, so could be more bad news. Nobody wants to hear that Motorola's new strategy revolves around more iterations of the RAZR. That'll be good for another half a percentage fall on the S&P.
Stocks May Drop to Reflect Recession, Strategists Say (Bloomberg)
This is awfully specific. An analyst at Bank of America says stocks need to drop another 4 percent to really price in a recession. Apparently the withering declines have so far been profit taking, or basically they're just not enough. 4 percent's pretty minimal though. What he's essentially saying is that a recession will be fully priced in sometime this afternoon, or maybe Thursday or Friday.
The (Unlisted) Hot Tickets at Davos (Dealbook)
Dealbook's Davos Diary reports, unsurprisingly, that the hot tickets at the World Economic Forum are not the main panels, but the private panels, lunches and after-parties hosted by top names, like Rupert Murdoch and the Google Guys. Makes sense. It's the same with SxSW down in Austin. Sure you can be like everyone else and go see Feist, or if you know what's hot, you can go to some listening party/bbq with the Pixies. Anyway, to us Davos has always seemed to attract more attention than it's worth. Yes, we understand that anytime you have the super-famous ans super-powerful hanging out in Switzerland together it's news. Fine. But we've never heard of anything of substance or meaning coming out. It's basically a chance for George Soros to be a boldface, right? Back in the day when it was all Bono, Bill Gats and Kofi Annan -- that seemed like its metaphysical peak.
What does the Enron cert denial mean? (Ideoblog)
You know you want to know.
Ken Lay: Not Such a Bad CEO After All? (O&M)
And speaking of Enron, it's about time the revisionists revised their view of Ken Lay. Actually, it seems a little early. He hasn't been dead that long. He must've been really good for his legacy to start resurrecting itself so soon. From the paper: "News analysts assert that a positive feature of Lay’s legacy is that CEOs are now spending more time monitoring the details of financial reports and internal controls. This study suggests that the opportunity costs of this change in CEO behavior are higher than these analysts suggest." That we have an easy time believing.
Urgently, Washington Responds (NYT)
Washington is frequently criticized for being too slow, so this article about how quickly the various players in the economic stimulus have come together should counter some of those critics. On the other hand, if you're like us, and you think Washington moves too fast, then here's some disturbing, Capote-esque literature about how fast Bernanke, Paulson, Nancy Pelosi and others can swing into action ot stave off an emergency. As we see it, there aren't many important things that can't wait a day or even a month. Rarely do you regret taking a deep breath and keeping your impulses in check, especially when it comes to stuff like doling out $150 billion dollars or slashing interests. Anyway, while guys like Jim Cramer yell to they turn purple that people shouldn't panic, Roger Ehrenberg has some nice advice: "Pull out the New York Times crossword, sharpen your skills, read a good book and hold on." We'd add play some chess to that, but that's just us. Oh and do more lifting.
The Inevitable Dumbing Down of Building Systems (New Daedalus)
We made a bet to a friend the other day that the next big economic expansion in the US would come from advances in energy technology and energy utilization. That stuff's been hot for awhile, but maybe a little early. It might need one more bust/boom cycle to really take off and start being a growth leader. And we don't just mean solar power and ethanol or even algae, but advances in how traditional electricity is consumed. But the above is a sobering piece from our favorite blog on smart buildings.






Posted by eddy , Jan 23, 2008 7:38AM
"So will we take our queues from abroad? "
As in "queues" of huddled masses or something?
Posted by , Jan 23, 2008 8:19AM
bofa layoffs expected to be today
Posted by tedclark , Jan 23, 2008 8:23AM
Davos.....is this going to solve the value of the falling dollar? Is this going to wake up a sleeping Federal Reserve Board? Is it going to create jobs here in America? Will it solve boarder crossings that take American jobs and put our people in umployment lines? Think not. It seems it is annual event designed to give the female reporters a chance to party without their husbands watching and show whose eyes look best with dark circles under them. Then (damn) back home on the weekend. You DB readers know who among the pretty ladies will be getting down on the slopes, eh?
Posted by Anal_yst , Jan 23, 2008 9:27AM
I am deeply disturbed by the gov't reaction to the economic events and situation of late (such to the point I even toyed with the idea of writing to the WSJ, gasp!).
Someone needs to sit the flapping heads and "decision makers" in DC down and learn them some basic logic (e.g. action => consequence(s)), then move on to 'common sense 101', followed by - stay with me here - economics (for dummies).
The current moves by the Fed, and this bullsh!t "Stimulous" malarkey completely subverts any and all reason, not to mention tears at the fabric of the social contract (the laws of physics, etc).
Short-sighted, greedy, ill-informed decisions result in (more often than not) negative consequences, and the agents of those decisions must be left to accept the consequences of their decisions and actions, lest they fail to learn from their mistakes and inevitably repeat them again with impunity and without fear of consequence.
As I said yesterday, the streets will (and must periodically) flow with blood, in the grand scheme of things, a little blood lost every now-and-then is alot healthier than a catastrophic hemorrage.
Posted by , Jan 23, 2008 9:41AM
@9:27 What you fail to acknowledge is that the upside run was also in good part the result of tinkering. Aggressive rate cuts, liquidity that led to a housing bubble that fueled a consumer spree. Really just a smoke screen to make it seem like those tax cuts were doing some good. Getting rid of that coke snorting asshole in the White House should be a step in the right direction.
Posted by , Jan 23, 2008 10:09AM
Ron Paul if you can hear me please come and rescue this country
Posted by Ratings Man , Jan 23, 2008 10:10AM
I project with 25%of of precincts reporting that Alexis Glick is the winner for getting the most interesting people on the air fastest and if this has to be, according to the big ass execs, Fox and Alexis will win the race for most interesings and what might benefit you the investor.
Thanks FOX Business. Projected winner Alexis Glick
Posted by Anonymouse , Jan 23, 2008 10:13AM
Sorry, @10:09, Ron Paul is doing fondue shots off the naked belly of an Indonesian ski bunny in Davos. We're shit outta luck.
Posted by , Jan 23, 2008 11:38AM
Erin tarted up like a ho today. I wish someday Haines would smack that disgusting fake smile off her stupid face.
Posted by Toby Considine , Jan 28, 2008 10:47PM
I don't think this is as pessimistic as you think. If the systems truly get to be pre-assemblies, or made-to-order at the factory, then we might get better systems. We will also get more predictability – and greater pressure for systems to be intelligent and self-configuring (to a point).
If this creates systems that bring abstract interfaces up to the building agent, whatever it may be, then this will put us closer to a transformed, transactive energy grid. Or perhaps merely closer to Galvin’s microgrid as the fundamental unit of reliability.
Either way, it would not be too bad.