Did Auction Rate Securities Ever Have A Natural Success Rate?

When Wall Street withdrew its support for auction-rate securities, many investors discovered their cash is trapped. Their brokers told them their investments in instruments that were marketed as cash-equivalents were suddenly illiquid. Issuers who depended on the securities for financing are being told by their banks that they must refinance, and of course hand over deal fees to the very institutions that allowed the markets to collapse. And now many want to know why the auctions were in such dire condition that the banks decided the cost of supporting them was not longer acceptable.

“How long did they know the auctions were on life support?” one investor with nearly half-a-million dollars in now illiquid auction-rate securities asked DealBreaker.


The immediate cause of the auction failures was the pullback of the banks and brokerages. In mid-February the financial institutions conducting the auctions stopped acting as principals or buyers of excess ARS inventory. Investors and issuers were caught off guard, surprised by the sudden change that occurred nearly simultaneously and without warning. Even some within the financial institutions were caught off guard, with brokers learning only after the fact that their auction desks were allowing the auctions to fail.

“Wall Street executives have defended their conduct, saying losses on holdings such as mortgage assets have curtailed their ability to use their balance sheets to support faltering markets,” the Wall Street Journal’s Randall Smith and Liz Rappaport report in their article today about a large bond marketer lashing out against Wall Street over the auction failures.

But this raises the question of why the markets were faltering in the first place. In our earlier reporting, we revealed how accounting changes may have set some corporate buyers running for the exits from this market. More recent conversations with a broader array of bond traders and dealers points toward another possiblility—the market never had enough buyer demand to support itself and has been dependent on stabilization from the banks for a very long time.

“The truth is there was no natural auction success rate. But for the banks acting as market makers, these auctions would have failed from the get go,” a bond trader told DealBreaker.

Rather than merely acting as buyers of the last resort, the financial institutions have been consistently called upon to stabilize the ARS market. In many cases, investors were lead to believe the market was much healthier than it has ever been. But with balance sheet capital at a premium due to recent losses, the banks decided that the fees received for structuring the auctions and managing clients money in ARS were did not justify deploying the capital necessary to support the market.

If these bond traders are correct about the way the ARS market operated, Wall Street may soon find itself the subject of yet another round of lawsuits and investigations by authorities.

Comments

Posted by diablo, Feb 27, 2008 4:27PM

Carney, Bloomberg beat you to that story.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ayejZe3dpOeQ&refer=home

"Muni Regulators Seek Disclosure on Auction-Rate Bonds (Update5)

By Michael Quint

Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Securities regulators may impose new rules on brokers in the $330 billion auction-rate bond market where rigged bids left investors unable to sell their holdings and taxpayers with higher borrowing costs.

The U.S. municipal bond market's main regulator, the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board, plans to seek comment on whether dealers should reveal the number of bidders and disclose how often auctions fail in the market for the securities, whose rates are set periodically at auctions, said Executive Director Lynnette Hotchkiss. "


Farther down in the story:

"SEC Probe

The board began looking at ways to increase auction-rate disclosure at the request of the SEC, which in 2006 fined 15 banks a total of $13 million for using inside information to submit bids on auction-rate securities. Banks have been allowed to continue the practice so long as they disclose to investors that they might bid, though they haven't been required to reveal if, or how much they paid at auctions or what the range of offers was.

Revealing the interest rate would help investors and issuers, Martha Haines, head of the SEC's Office of Municipal Securities, has said.

Investors have few publicly available sources of information on yields of auction-rate securities, beyond indexes published on the Web site of the Securities Industry Financial Markets Association, the bond market's trade group. The indexes are based on securities whose rates reset on Tuesday or Wednesday, and are published with a lag. The most recent indexes are for Feb. 13. "

Posted by guest, Feb 27, 2008 4:30PM

Doesn't it more raise the issue of whether it was appropriate for brokers to continue marketing these as cash equivalent securities while at the same time knowing that liquidity was severely curtailed because their own houses were supporting the auction?

Posted by miami, Feb 27, 2008 4:32PM

Retail Brokers knowing what the Risk Mgmt was doing?

Now THAT'S funny.

Posted by guest, Feb 27, 2008 4:32PM

The 3 step Muni Problem

1) Failed Auctions
2) Monoline Insurance
3) Supreme Court due to rule on double taxation issues.*

*http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/02/05/8399181/index.htm

Though nearly all municipal bonds are exempt from federal taxation, state tax policy varies. Like many states, Kentucky exempts income on bonds issued there but not on those issued out of state. The goal: to enhance demand for local bonds, thereby lowering public borrowing costs. The yields on bonds from states with in-state tax advantages are often ten to 25 basis points lower than those from states without them.

Should the high court side with the Davises, muni-bond experts like Oppenheimer Funds' Ron Fielding believe the ruling would trim between 1 and 4 percent from the value of munis from California, Missouri, New York, Rhode Island and other states with big in-state tax advantages.

The potential beneficiaries: bonds from Illinois, Texas, Washington and other states where the lack of in-state tax breaks has required issuers to offer higher yields.

A ruling in favor of the Davises would also call into question the raison d'être of the 1,300 single-state municipal bond mutual funds that exist to capture in-state tax breaks.

Posted by Matt_m, Feb 27, 2008 4:33PM

I find some of the sanctimonious outrage from a few of these debt issuers to be wierd. I mean dude - if the market is not buying your debt at even 20% then it means that you are that risk! Get your house in order - maybe people will then buy your stuff.
.
The analogy to this would be if tomorrow a bill was passed explicitly cutting off the agencied from any guarantee from the US govt. Their debt costs would soar. Their low cost is not a function of how well managed they are financially but of the implicit backstop even if they mess up.

Posted by guest, Feb 27, 2008 4:44PM

Miami not saying it is the retail broker's fault, but it is indisputable that the firm knew it had a product that its brokers market as cash, but which was behaving like anything but. This is an operational risk management failure.

In all likelihood instead of divulging this there was a coverup, hoping the situation would rectify itself in time.

Posted by guest, Feb 27, 2008 4:54PM

Bonds with 20% yield are hardly priced entirely on the basis of just the issuer. Yield is a function of several factors beyond the credit risk of the issuer including liquidity, reinvestment, market, and inflation among others.

Right now I would say the entire market is at risk because of potential FASB regulation saying these aren't cash which is driving liquidity risk since no company wants to be stuck holding these when they aren't cash.

Also, I don't know if these are securities with bond insurance (someone who knows can speak to that), but if they were there would be additional credit risk since most likely unless its back by Buffett you aren't going to have the insurance payout you might expect from monolines.

Posted by guest, Feb 27, 2008 4:59PM

to 4:54 pm

There's a seat on the short bus with your name on it.

Posted by Anal_yst, Feb 27, 2008 5:43PM

Another issue (or sub issue as it were), is that the Brokers selling this stuff don't understand it, while I'm not sure where this is explicitely illegal, I'm pretty sure its not A-OK.

The lawsuits are coming, the lawsuits are coming!

(of course its not exactly a surprise that a retail broker sold a client a product he/she didn't understand, butt thats a larger discussion for another time)

Posted by guest, Feb 27, 2008 5:49PM

I am a private investor with a considerable sum frozen in auction rate securities, purchased through a brokerage firm from preferred, closed end funds such as Pimco, Nuveen, and Clarion.

All the articles I have read on this meltdown deal with the intracacies and machinations of the broad auction rate market and its effect on markets and agencies. Interesting enough, but I have yet to read an article that answers the simple questions nagging at small, unsophisticated, private investors like me.

Will we ever get our money? When?

Is there any liklihood that this fiasco will worsen and our investments will be lost?

A recent announcement by the National Securities Trading Network (NSTN) says they will begin buying ARS on March 3. Is this an action that will solve the problem? Can private investors expect their securities to sell on or shortly after March 3? OR is NSTN a firm that hopes to buy at a discount, where private investors are offered just so much on the dollar?

The fund companies have frozen our money until they, as it was explained to me by my broker,"sort things out."
How long do they have to sort things out -- another week, a month, a year, forever?

Guest

Posted by John Carney, Feb 27, 2008 5:50PM

It's worse than not understanding it. In some cases, brokers were specifically trained to sell these to clients as if they were as good as cash. After all, auctions hadn't failed since 1986 or some such. It was perfectly liquid. Until suddenly it wasn't.

Posted by guest, Feb 27, 2008 6:19PM

"Will we ever get our money? When?"

It will be a long, long time. Enjoy the interest (which fortunately resets to market regularly), but you could be tied up for years until a class action or derivative suit can be organized to sue the closed end funds and force them to redeem the preferreds. The market will not save you (except at a material discount to par), because nobody wants to hold this stuff long term.

Posted by guest, Feb 27, 2008 7:19PM

I hope Bernanke is correct --

Bernanke sees muni bond market returning to normal

Wed Feb 27, 2008 12:12pm EST
WASHINGTON, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday that municipal bond borrowers were generally good credit risks, and market conditions in that segment would likely return to normal.

"As a general matter, municipal borrowers are of very good credit quality. My expectation is that within a relatively short period of time we'll see adjustments in the market to allow municipal borrowers to finance at reasonable interest rates," Bernanke told the U.S. House of Representatives' Financial Services Committee.

Some municipal borrowers have seen interest rates spike in recent weeks because they sold "auction-rate securities" with rates that regularly reset. Hundreds of auctions in the $330 billion market have failed since late January as buyers balked, forcing municipal borrowers to pay sharply higher rates. (Reporting by Emily Kaiser; Editing by James Dalgleish)

Posted by guest, Feb 27, 2008 7:53PM

Come on people!!!! Learn what you are buying!!!! If you were smart about it you could have gone out and bought great quality muni issuances that have great credit. How about 6% double tax free on entity that won't default (ignore the OC)??? Doesn't sound bad. I'll take that. (by the way, that's almost equivalnet to 10% if you are in the highest tax bracket)

Posted by guest, Feb 27, 2008 9:49PM

one problem with your grand scheme, you can't get 6% on an invesment grade muni, moron.

Posted by guest, Feb 28, 2008 6:19AM

Has it occurred to anyone that it was a flood of net sales at auctions that caused the dealers holdings in ARS to grow to the point of pain?

I am on the buy-side and everyday I see the holdings of a number of dealers in the form of offering sheets, I can tell you with certainty that the dealers were buying back paper throughout 4Q07 and into February. The largest dealers were holding hundreds of millions if not billions of ARS in inventory. With the fear of the monolines' collapse, more sellers showed up further pressuring the markets.

So, was it not the holders' selling pressure that strained the dealers to the point that they said "no mas"? Does investors' continued "sale" orders now, irrespective of their need for funds, not exacerbate the problem further?

Sure, any broker who represented this as "Cash" has a problem, but the investor community is not without blame.

Posted by guest, Feb 28, 2008 7:29AM

I think most of the blame has to be accepted by the individual investor. Unless your FA lied to you and told you your money was in a money market account, CD, etc., it's up to you to learn about what you're investing in. I didn't know what ARS were until this month, but it took all of 5 minutes to learn online. Just do a search. I'm also glad I don't have a FA, if you trust them enough to make moves for you, then outside of outright lies, the buck stops with you. I would never invest in something I didn't understand or never heard of. Hate to say it, but if you were too lazy to research what you were buying, then too bad.

Some people are going to be screwed for a while, not all ARS have a high penalty rate. And why isn't there more demand for those who do have high current yields? I think it's because most people can't get into them. I have no FA and am a smallish investor. How would I go about buying an ARS? I would probably have to contact a dealer right? These securities are still too obscure for the average Joe investor, and too opaque。

Posted by guest, Feb 28, 2008 9:46AM

Buyside guy again. The brokers catering to the retail community are dissuading individual investors buying failed auctions in cross trades. In the absence of a robust secondary market, being "under the tent" is the only way to get involved. That said, hedge funds, large bond investors and UHNW individuals ARE buying at the penalty rates or high successful auction levels. Based on my observations, auctions with penalty or potential clearing rates above 8-10% are being successful about 80-90% of the time. Just the opposite for paper below 6%. Interestingly, there have been a couple of successful student loan backed auctions (SLARS) this week.

The rub is that the high rate paper will be the first to be called from the market via refi/restructuring so I am not sure you are missing much by not being able to play.

Posted by diablo, Feb 28, 2008 10:52AM

guest @9:46 AM

Great comment!

Posted by miami, Feb 28, 2008 2:13PM

'cash equivalent' != cash.

The investor [yes, you @5:49] was receiving a *higher* rate than overnite cash, repo, or Daily MM Fund. Yes?

Did you think the bank was just cheerfully lining your pockets with Free Money? I mean, Risk-Free Free Money every 7 days?

Carney, while tax-free muni auctions hadn't failed in like 20 years, taxable ones failed just last year. Diff market but similar enough for investors to be aware of.

If the investor had discretion on his acc't, he has no one to blame but himself, by definition. He can't come back and claim he didn't understand paper with a stated tenor of 20-30 years wasn't going to be 100% liquid on a daily basis.
That's what MM Funds are for, or overnites.

If not, the securities would be governed by the terms of the agreement, which will most likely list 'near-cash equivalents' or notes without daily liquidity as permissable.

Posted by Debter, Feb 28, 2008 2:48PM

Jesus people, some of you are so wrong it's scary. I just wonder where you're getting your info from. I don't comment on equities and banking b/c that's not what I know. I would advise the same when it comes to munis or ARS. Just saying...

Funny, some on here are very correct in their analysis and then a few posts later some retard ridicules them for being right. Well, maybe not so much funny as sad.

Posted by guest, Feb 28, 2008 2:51PM

part of the charm of DB is how many people there are who relish the opportunity to try and make an anonymous stranger look dumb, irrespective of whether they know what they are talking about.

Posted by guest, Feb 28, 2008 5:13PM

Buyside guy again. Debter, I hope you weren't refering to me as being one of the wrong guys. I have done with a very long time with some very large dollars and I DO know from what I speak.

Miami - yeah, there were about 60 taxable auction cusips that failed late last Summer. Most of that rot was backed by RMBS, CDOs that owned RMBS and monoline related contingent liabilities. Real dog shit marked by a small group of dealers. About $6Bn of the $330Bn auction market. Bristol Myers (and others) very big writedowns related to auctions were in this stuff which is now worth ~50 cents on the dollar. The wealthy family take action against Lehman was in that paper.

Those failures are VERY different from what we have faced the past three weeks. The current flood of failed auctions are NOT credit issues with the auction issuers (though one could argue they were credit issues of the dealers). This is a liquidity crisis first and foremost. BTW, I checked the various auction results today and the percentage of muni deals having successful auctions appears to be increasing, sometimes down to rates near 4.5%. If that is a trend, it is a very welcome one for the muni ARS market. The SLARS and ARPS markets are still dead.

Any individual who says he/she didn't know that auctions could fail or could become illiquid get little sympathy from me. The disclosures that the dealer community had to provide after the settelement with the SEC were very clear. To say that you didn't read it so you can't be at fault is right up there with sub-prime lenders who never read the fine print on all those documents then signed. Sorry, that was a bit excessive but as Miami points out, the yield spread between ARPS and MARS and SLARS relative to USTs and MMFs should have been an indication that there was greater risk.

The only defense will be when someone shows an email or letter from a predatory broker that says that auctions were "just like cash". That is a winning defense every day. Otherwise, good luck in arbitration.

Buyside

Posted by guest, Feb 28, 2008 7:34PM

Hey 2/27/08 @9:49;

17%!!! sorry, i was willing to take 6%... UPMC AA

WSJ 2-19-08
"The university's medical center has expanded rapidly in the past decade, partly by gaining a greater share of federal research grants but also through growth overseas and increased marketing of its health-care technology. The system has a $3 billion investment portfolio and a top-tier credit rating.

It also has $2.4 billion in tax-exempt debt outstanding, including $430 million in auction-rate debt. Last week, market rates on its auction-rate debt rose from 3.5% in early February to 10% and 12% last Wednesday, and then above 17% Thursday."

WSJ 2-21-08
"For municipal issuers, the average interest rate after failed auctions between Feb. 12 and Feb. 15 was 7.3%, up from between 4.25% and 4.7% in January, J.P. Morgan said. For issuers raising money to fund student lending, the average rate jumped to 6.3% compared with last months' average of about 4.75%."

Bloomberg 2-19-08
"The average rate for seven-day municipal auction bonds rose to a record 6.59 percent on Feb. 13 from 4.03 percent the previous week, according to indexes compiled by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association."

Posted by thoffman, Mar 05, 2008 9:42AM

I am the owner of preferred auction rate shares in a Van Kampen Massachusetts muni fund. Realistically speaking, these shares will never trade again (if they ever did, without the active involvement of the brokers), because no sane person would purchase them after learning about their history, the past conduct of the brokers, the 2006 FASB changes, and the severe liquidity risk. Therefore, the whole concept and mechanism of the fund has broken down, both for preferred and common, and will never function again. Meanwhile, the fundamental assets of the fund are in good shape. It is the fund itself which is the problem. Under these circumstances, Massachusetts state law suggests that the fund should be liquidated. Has anyone thought about this? Also, does anyone have any ideas how I will be able to identify the other preferred shareholders, who are probably only a few hundred in number? Obviously, my broker Merril Lynch will not provide this information because they are afraid of litigation against them. The fund itself does not know who the ultimate owners are, because the shares are held in the name of the brokers. This is kind of a nasty situation, legally speaking.

Posted by diablo, Mar 05, 2008 10:07AM

thoffman,

Have you contacted the MA attorney general's office about this? Also, check this:

http://www.stockbroker-fraud.com/lawyer-attorney-1284530.html

Posted by guest, Mar 06, 2008 11:43PM

thoffman - you realize that an auction rate preferred for a muni fund is a form of leverage? To solve this problem, all a fund has to do is find an alternate form of leverage (bank debt, retail notes, reverse repos, extendibles, etc) and redeem your preferred shares. The fund is fine, and shouldn't be liquidated under any circumstance because, as you admit yourself, the underlying assets are in good shape. Incidentally, so are the common shareholders because they have the benefit of low cost perpetual leverage.

Problem is Rome wasn't built in a day, and figuring out the solution to this is going to take a bit more time than 3 weeks.

Posted by thoffman, Mar 07, 2008 10:05AM

guest @ 11:43: Thanks for the interesting comment. I do not understand how it will be so simple for the fund to replace the preferred shares because of the tax exempt feature. This has typically meant that preferred shareholders have been willing to invest at a significantly lower rate of return than ordinary lenders would offer. The alternate sources of financing you mention would not be able to enjoy tax free dividends, as I understand the matter. Thus, the fund would have to pay higher rates, and this would in turn completely upset the intended economic balance of the fund. If I don't understand this, what do I have wrong?

Posted by guest, Mar 07, 2008 4:19PM

ARPS Solution

Redemption has started !

Put this is the face of your issuer. Use it to pressure your fund.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=ahyUx8wCN4uU&refer=home

Posted by shivelys, Mar 09, 2008 4:22PM

thoffman, and any other investors who owns Auction Rate Preferred Securities, read this excerpt, and contact him...he is trying to get all ARPS holders together so that we can combine our information and put up a fight!!

I repeat: If you own failed auction rate preferred securities (ARPS), please send me an email. We need to talk. There are serious benefits in combining our thinking. harry@harrynewton.com . I am not a law firm. I am not a financial advisory firm. I am not seeking fees, I am stuck in these things, just like you. I am seeking collective wisdom.

In the meantime, if you own auction-rate securities sold by closed-end funds, you had better be prepared to hold.

+ An owner of $60 million+ of ARPs emails me that his "strategy" is:

1. VERY FIRMLY, call your brokers and notify them that you NEVER authorized them to purchase Auction Rate Preferred Shares

2. You want 100% of your principal returned immediately.

3. In the event they don't agree, notify them you will legally hold them accountable for all principal, interest, and damages.

4. A loan makes no sense, since we are acknowledging collateral on an asset we NEVER authorized them to purchase.

This is a formal complaint to the broker, which we have made, and we are awaiting a response which could take 2-3 weeks. After that, we band together and attack.

the website where I found all of the above info is:

http://www.auctionratepreferreds.org/index.php

Posted by guest, Mar 09, 2008 11:02PM

thoffman - you are correct in your statement that the solutions I mentioned would not be tax efficient for a municipal closed end fund. However, there are other tax efficient forms of leverage available such as a variable rate demand obligation note. A fund could also chose to de-lever and finance their assets with equity only. However this is detrimental to the common shareholders because they would then receive inferior returns on the unlevered fund.

The worst thing to do right now is try and sell your preferred shares to anybody offering less than par. These shares are still worth their full value, backed by the assets of the fund, and anybody offering to buy at a discounted rate is trying to take advantage of the panic. Classic run-on-the-bank mentality.

Posted by guest, Mar 14, 2008 1:10AM

Does anyone know what the spread between LIBOR and long term rates needs to be for taxable ARPS to still be worth par? It seems that some of these securities have such low "penalty" rates that they are bound to lose a lot of value. If the rate is high enough, of course, they will get refinanced by someone, but if it is low, it was just cheap money for the issuer with no penalty for failure, and hence it never was market based, and a true market will price it below par.

Posted by lasherm9, Mar 22, 2008 10:13PM

If you are an investor in Auction Rate Securities, please join other investors at: http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/02/27/when-the-collapsed-auction-rate-securities-ars-market-gets-per/1#c11175781

Posted by lasherm9, Mar 22, 2008 10:13PM

If you are an investor in Auction Rate Securities, please join other investors at: http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/02/27/when-the-collapsed-auction-rate-securities-ars-market-gets-per/1#c11175781

Posted by guest, Apr 06, 2008 7:18PM

Speaking of auction-rate bonds, why is it so hard to find information on individual such bonds and their interest rates. I am interested in buyig some tax exempt municipal auction-rate bonds and have been trying to research what is available out there and at what rates, with no luck. Does anyone know where I can find such information, it it's availabe at all? And who do I go to if I want to buy such bonds? Any pointers are much appreciated. Thanks.

Posted by guest, Apr 08, 2008 1:11AM

As yet another unfortunate investor in these Auction Rate Securities, I've been befuddled that I can negotiate a price for durable goods on EBay any day-of-the-week, but I can't get my stock broker to find a buyer for my Auction Rate Securities -- no matter what discount I'm willing to sell at.

So, we've created an electronic secondary market at ESER.org for investors to directly buy and sell Auction Rate Securities with one another -- independent of the brokerage houses.

It's frustrating that none of the banks that have previously back-stopped the auctions of these securities are willing to step in and redeem the issues from their clients.

The decision of the Wall Street Banks to terminate back-stopping auctions of these securities has cut a swath right through the investment world -- from mid-size investors such as ourselves to large corporations.

We're running ESER.org (Electronic SEcurities Registry) at http://www.eser.org as a sort of public-service: sellers are free to list their Auction Rate Securities for sale; and buyers are free to browse the listings and negotiate pricing and settlement with the sellers.

Hopefully, a vibrant secondary market, such as ESER.org, will allow investors to cash-out of these illiquid Auction Rate Securities.

-ESER.org (Electronic SEcurities Registry): www.eser.org

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