
Political contributions are one of the big mysteries in American politics. Why would anyone give to their favored candidate or political party when they could simply free-ride on the donations of others? It’s even more of a mystery than voting, which strikes most political scientists as irrational since the chance of any one vote making a difference is minuscule. Big donors are making an even larger sacrifice than voters, yet the chance of any individual donor’s contribution making a difference is probably just as minuscule.
The most likely answer is that political giving isn’t like voting—whereas voting is anonymous, giving is disclosed. This means political giving can have effects that voting cannot, such as winning favor with politicians receiving the contributions. This, in turn, suggests that giving patterns should differ from voting patterns because the two actions are differently motivated. Voting is a symbolic act whereby voters express a political preference and engage in solidarity with other citizens. You don’t get points for voting for winners or losers (unless it just makes you feel good to have voted for a winner). Giving is a self-serving act—so it makes a lot more sense to give to winners than losers. Think of it this way: voting is like praying or hoping; giving is like betting. Or investing.
And this year hedge funds and private equity firms have been piling into the same trade they did in 2004 and 2006: betting on the Democrats. Hedge fund and private equity donations totaled $6.4 million in 2007 for presidential candidates, with the Democrats getting 59.7 percent of the loot and 40.3 percent going to the Republicans.
These numbers are heavily skewed by the Democratic Senator Christopher Dodd’s role in the presidential race.
Although a little known candidate that few believed had a realistic chance of becoming his party’s nominee, Dodd garnered as much support from the alternative investment category as one-time Republican front-runner Mitt Romney. Dodd is widely believed to have a fund raising advantage as the Senator from Connecticut, where many funds have offices. If we net out contributions to Dodd, the fund raising contest narrows dramatically. Democrats retain an edge over Republicans of just 50.6% to 49.4%.
So hedge funds may have "elected" the Democrats in 2007, as the headline says, but the contest looks a lot more like the closely contested elections of 2000 and 2004 when you take away the Dodd factor.
Hedge Funds 'Elect' Democrats in '08 Race [International Business Times]






Posted by , Feb 11, 2008 1:05PM
That will probably be the only thing Chris Dodd is ever a factor in other than the creation of hot air.
Posted by Mep , Feb 11, 2008 1:10PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aTKLE4HlcrUE&refer=home
Posted by , Feb 11, 2008 1:10PM
Carney, the simple calculus is: you back the guy who you think a) is going to win and b) will stay bought. Also, you hedge your bets. I was once at a hedge fund where one partner would back the Dems and the other the GOP, both in equal measure.
Posted by Anal_yst , Feb 11, 2008 1:11PM
Or they're giving to the Dems cus they know if they don't they're all completely and royally F&CKED with zero recourse, at least with contributions they can play the, "See, I supported you the whole time" quid-pro-quo game
Posted by , Feb 11, 2008 1:23PM
These donations are protection money in the purest sense--- the super-rich are vulnerable to shakedown in the case of a Democratic victory.
You've already seen rumbles of it in Congress's discussion of the proper tax rate to apply to HF/PE profits (ie is it corporate income or capital gains).
Posted by , Feb 11, 2008 1:24PM
These donations are protection money in the purest sense--- the super-rich are vulnerable to shakedown in the case of a Democratic victory.
You've already seen rumbles of it in Congress's discussion of the proper tax rate to apply to HF/PE profits (ie is it corporate income or capital gains).
Posted by , Feb 11, 2008 1:34PM
a little disappointed in dealbreaker...
Dodd is chair of senate banking committee... nuff said
Posted by burned by romney , Feb 11, 2008 1:56PM
@1:10 PM
Bingo!
Posted by , Feb 11, 2008 2:42PM
...and $2,300 x2 for a spouse is the equivalent of a dinner somewhere decent in the city.
Posted by Ben_H , Feb 11, 2008 2:56PM
1:34 hit it. Bundle 4-5 $2,300 slugs and you can have a one-on-one meeting with the chair of the Banking Committee. You think your average HF portfolio manager in the ABS space might think an hourlong chat with Dodd about "Dodd Principles" worth a few thousand bucks?
Posted by , Feb 11, 2008 3:46PM
@2:42 So the people NOT from NY don't think we're crazy, admit you're exaggerating re the price of dinner. Per Se is the most expensive place and a couple would spend around $1,000 - $1,100 there for dinner for two with a decent but not overly extravagant wine.
Posted by Teddy , Feb 11, 2008 5:36PM
who can forget Chris Dodd and Teddy Kennedy at Le Brasserie in Washington DC with those two 18-year old pages ??? ...... " she's my niece "
Posted by Teddy , Feb 11, 2008 5:38PM
who can forget Chris Dodd and Teddy Kennedy at Le Brasserie in Washington DC with those two 18-year old pages ??? ...... " she's my niece "
Posted by Teddy , Feb 11, 2008 8:32PM
who can forget Chris Dodd with Teddy Kennedy at le Brasserie in Washington DC with those two 18-year old pages ??? ...... " she's my niece "