Shocked into an inconsolable state, Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton feared out loud yesterday that injecting liquidity into the economy might reduce the United States to the economic level of post 1990s Japan.
We might be drifting into a Japanese-like situation. I don't think we can work our way out of the problems we're in in the broad-based economy with monetary policy alone. I think the Japanese tried that and tried and tried that.The phenomenon Mrs. Clinton is grasping for is the "Liquidity Trap." With interest rates so low that monetary authorities have no where left to go with rate cuts, and where the economy is stagnate, expectations for long term returns in, e.g., equity investment are low and market participants keep their assets in short-term vehicles or cash. This, of course, makes matters even worse.
Liquidity isn't the answer, you see. Instead, we have to use liquidity.
Details after the jump.
Specifically, Clinton's suggests that the government, or a proxy for the government (the FHA in this case), buy up mortgages where borrowers are underwater on equity. In typical Clinton fashion, the size of such a program wasn't discussed. This was probably a good thing, given that the best estimates put underwater mortgages in the United States at about $2 trillion.
Clinton is right about one thing, the answer to a liquidity trap is generally a "money gift." In Greenspan vocabularly, "Helicopter Money." You have to find non-bank ways to pour money into the economy. Back, "in the day," that is during the Great Depression, the Fed managed it by buying gold at significantly above market rates. Clinton has stolen a Great Depression concept, and cleverly worked to kill two birds with one stones. First, the Helicopter Money. Second, acquiring political capital by directing the gift at a demographic likely to vote for her: Homeowners daft and financially irresponsible enough to take on mortgages that required insanely optimistic assumptions about eternally rising asset prices to make economic sense. Of course, her charity is cast in the light of compassion, "fairness" and justice.
Far be it from us to point out that just because a homeowner is faced with negative equity, nothing is necessarily preventing them from making their payments, or preventing them from being back above water if asset prices recover. We would never point out that these particular "victims" don't seem like decent candidates for government assistance. They probably are in exactly the demographic that Clinton hopes to win away from other candidates for high office, however.
As for "turning Japanese," the Wall Street Journal might give us a clue there:



Hmmm. Could be.
We don't have the heart to tell her what the song is actually about, however.
Clinton Fears Japan-Style Malaise [WSJ]
-- Equity Q. Private is the Author of Going Private and a Guest Editor for DealBreaker.com






Posted by guest , Mar 28, 2008 9:48AM
EP that's just an urban legend about the song. We expect more diligence from you on stuff like that. Please don't let your standards fall just because of the generally lax dealbreaker attention to detail.
Posted by HAM05 , Mar 28, 2008 9:49AM
do you and bess ever sit around the db office sipping ruffino and discussing monitary policy when all of a sudden you say something anti-zionist and bess playfully throws a pillow at you? then you throw the pillow back insighting a full blown fight and all of a sudden you're on the floor in your bra and panties, panting from exhaustion when you catch a wiff of her apricot scented hair and cant help but tilt your head and lean in and make out till morning?
just asking
Posted by Anal_yst , Mar 28, 2008 9:55AM
Damn you EP, you beat me to the Hillarity-bashing party today!
Posted by guest , Mar 28, 2008 9:58AM
HAM: you win the prize. That has to rank as one of the best all year.
I haven't been following totally though. How do we know the author here wears bra and panties?
Posted by Lowly Assistant , Mar 28, 2008 9:58AM
@Ham05,
It's inappropriate to "turn Japanese" at your desk. However, the descriptive language re: pillow play was great. I saw it all.
Posted by ep , Mar 28, 2008 10:02AM
"do you and bess ever sit around the db office sipping ruffino and discussing monitary policy when all of a sudden you say something anti-zionist and bess playfully throws a pillow at you? then you throw the pillow back insighting a full blown fight and all of a sudden you're on the floor in your bra and panties, panting from exhaustion when you catch a wiff of her apricot scented hair and cant help but tilt your head and lean in and make out till morning?
just asking"
Bess is usually the one with the anti-zionist comment (she's such a traitor to her people). I kid... I kid....
"EP that's just an urban legend about the song."
Wikipedia:
"In fact, some US media outlets claimed that the phrase "turning Japanese" was a popular euphemism in the UK for masturbation; in reality, however, it has only become such a euphemism subsequent to the release of the song. Dave Fenton would alternately confirm and deny this suggestion in interviews, but admitted the phrase "turning Japanese" just popped into his head one morning when he woke up, and he viewed it as a love song when writing it."
Posted by IA , Mar 28, 2008 10:12AM
Notice how EP avoided the central question.
This is my favorite comment thread ever - it almost makes up for the tranny picture yesterday.
Posted by guest , Mar 28, 2008 10:13AM
"In fact, some US media outlets claimed that the phrase "turning Japanese" was a popular euphemism in the UK for masturbation; "
Many years back, if some PM was caught shagging someone other than his/her spouse, the brit tabloids would refer to such activity by printing that the PM and paramour were "found to be vigourously discussing Uganda".....
Posted by guest , Mar 28, 2008 10:22AM
DB's tranny pictures usually have the best stories attached to them. Tobias being the exception, since Filomania is not a tranny - as far as we know
Posted by guest , Mar 28, 2008 10:22AM
Exactly. just an urban legend.
Posted by guest , Mar 28, 2008 10:36AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIZpF111Ojw
Nuff sed.
--Schmooze
Posted by girl , Mar 28, 2008 10:38AM
I always thought he was singing about sugar snap peas, thanks for clearing that up.
(Also @ HAM, hilarious)
Posted by guest , Mar 28, 2008 10:48AM
Nice post Ham. Were you in a house there?
Posted by guest , Mar 28, 2008 10:51AM
HAM05 needs to get a gold star or something. That was well written. As a long-time Going Private and DB reader, the Bess-EP combination is going to make April fantastic. I used to pant for pictures of either one but now I realize that the fantasy is better.
Posted by american bandersnatch , Mar 28, 2008 10:56AM
What does the Q in Equity Q. Private stand for?
Posted by onetwo , Mar 28, 2008 11:46AM
Point EP.
On a side note, one i've been exploring for posting purposes, wasn't (isn't?) it a primary complaint of politicians to deride housing as being "so unaffordable that middle-class people can't purchase homes" (or something to that effect)? Well, true to economics they are getting their wish now (prices lowering) but now complain about their declining values. They created the incentives (low interest rates, fannie, freddie, etc) to bring market players (homebuilders) into the market and build homes (increased supply) and meet demand. Now that the supply has increased, and demand decreased, the magic hand is (gasp!) LOWERING THE PRICE OF GOODS! Wow. Crazy.
Thank Science!
(i love parens)
Posted by ep , Mar 28, 2008 12:17PM
"What does the Q in Equity Q. Private stand for?"
Q-Ratio.
Posted by guest , Mar 28, 2008 12:20PM
Not sure how I feel about EP joining with DB.
Kind of feels like Goldsmith Agio's (DB) deal with Lazard (EP).
EP, aren't you a bit too legit for this site?
Posted by guest , Mar 28, 2008 1:03PM
"Point EP." explain?