Opening Bell: 3.18.08

cadboardbox.jpgThe Week That Shook Wall Street: Inside the Demise of Bear Stearns (WSJ) They're still talking about this one? Not that you need yet another "must-read" account of the Bear Stearns collapse, but this may be the closest thing we have to a definitive history right now. From Tuesday through Sunday, the rapid final days before the sale. Definitely a must-read.


Northern Rock to axe a third of staff (Telegraph)
Some layoffs news from across the pond: Northern Rock will lay off over a third of its staff, perhaps up to 2500 of its 6,000 employees. The layoffs come as part of the nationalized bank's attempts to reorganizes its business and head back into the world. Other aspects of the plan: selling assets and luring retail depositors back.

Bush Supports Fed’s Actions, but Critics Quickly Find Fault (NYT)
It seems like some folks are getting tripped up over language. The term Bear Stearns bailout has really got to go. Yes, the Fed engaged in some sort of bailout. And yes Bear Stearns was involved. It doesn't mean the Fed bailed out Bear Stearns, as evidenced by, say this stock chart. Why does it matter? Because the perception is that the government stepped into to protect its investment bank cronies while leaving millions of Americans on the hook for their debts. Then again, politicians will always use anything to say anything, so why be surprised.

Gov. Paterson admits to sex with other woman for years (Daily News)
For several hours last night, Drudge was running a teaser about a paper getting set to release a 'political bombshell'. Then the word was that it was the Daily News and our hearts sank a little. And then it we saw the headline and got excited -- the new gov? An affair? Already? But it's not really so great. It's old and his wife already knew about it. It was during a difficult time and even she had an affair. So, good they're getting it out there. Not really a scandal. Oh and no sex-for-money, which pretty much undercuts any commerce angle we might've found.

Bernanke May Cut Benchmark Rate by Most Since Volcker (Bloomberg)
Oh right: Fed meeting today. So, who says we're going to get the big 1-point-0? Anyone? Let's say we do, what then? Might just be a sell the news. As we mentioned yesterday, the last thing we need is confirmation that the Fed will do anything to save the ship. That we've known forever. Might be more reassuring to know that the Fed has some cojones.

Court frees SocGen trader Kerviel pending probe (Reuters)
This is ridiculous. Pending an investigation, Jerome Kerviel has been freed. We are outraged by this negligence. As long as men like Kerviel are free to roam the streets, our financial system is insecure. What's stopping him from trading away another $7.1 billion just like that? Nothing. Only behind bars, without access to a trading terminal, can we rest easy again. Unfortunately, he's not in America, so we doubt that Bill O'Reilly could browbeat the judge into putting him back where he belongs.

Tornadoes in the City? (AccuWeather)
As the recent events in Atlanta demonstrate, Tornadoes can and do occur in the city. Yet they are very rare. Got an answer? Joe Sobel is running a weather quiz. As far as we're concerned though, you can put them in the comments here and we'll let you know when he gives his answer. Or you can send your answer to him and be good internet citizens.

Tottenham come through £500m crisis (Telegraph)
We were sort of curious about this yesterday: where stands Joe Lewis' fortune, following his $1 billion Bear hit. Turns out: he'll do okay. Dude has about $5 billion, though even still, you have to figure that a $1 billion "haircut" has to smart a little bit. It's like when we lose $200 playing poker. Yeah, technically it doesn't matter, but it still takes a minute to shake off. We're sure it's the same for him, although on CNBC they kept quoting him as saying the offer was "derisory", so it sounds like he doesn't want to accept it. Meanwhile, his stake in the parent of Football club Tottenham is said to be secure, which was actually the entire hook for the Telegraph article. Brits. (via Controlled Greed)

Where Does Bear Stearns Go From Here? (Information Arbitrage)
One of yesterday's recurring questions: Why is BSC trading so far above $2? It's still a little hard to say, though people must see some combination of 'breathing time', 'Fed lifeline', 'White knight', 'deal restructuring' bringing in a better offer, otherwise, let's just say, economic rationality has been seriously turned on its had. Anyway, probably not going to happen, says Roger Ehrenberg. There are really only two endpoints for Bear at this point and they are $2/share and $0/share, the latter being more likely if shareholders get uppity.

Fighting Recession With Panic (American)
Another argument for why the Fed is delivering the wrong medicine to the economy. Maybe not not new ground for you, but well reasoned.

Comments

Posted by guest, Mar 18, 2008 7:25AM

Joe Weisenthal's opening bell remains must reading for anyone. Unless the typos are to try to be chic, I wish someone would edit it.

Posted by guest, Mar 18, 2008 7:59AM

bailout was for the bondholders and counterparties (many of whom are investment banking cronies) not the stockholders Joe. open your mind.

the wealth created by the fed yesterday in the price of bear stearns obligations outweighs that destroyed in equity value by orders of magnitude

Posted by guest, Mar 18, 2008 8:02AM

also, just want to point out that my unofficial canvass indicates shareholders are already uppity
-s75

Posted by brianvan, Mar 18, 2008 8:39AM

//threadjack

Goldman and Lehman both beat market estimates. Mortgage write-downs were modest, only half the rumored numbers flying around. Both are up in futures trading.

Get off me, son! Bear is Bear, Lehman is not Bear, Goldman is not Bear. No more bailouts needed, Mr. Bernanke. kthxbye.

Posted by guest, Mar 18, 2008 8:44AM

GS took charges of $2.52 billion, that is pretty close to the $3 billion that was the prevalent rumor yest.

Posted by guest, Mar 18, 2008 8:54AM

LEH and GS have both performed way better than the rest of their peers. I think one needs to give credit to their management.

Also, whats with the financial press pushing to doomsday spiel. There are a HUGE bunch of positives in GS and LEH performance today but BBg to a massive extent and WSJ to a lesser extent put a negative spin on the news. Kinda sad.

Posted by AJ, Mar 18, 2008 9:05AM

So, just to bring up something other than Bear, if the fed cuts rates by 100 bps, the dollar hits what? $1.75 per euro? $2.50 per pound? 75 yen?

Posted by ab, Mar 18, 2008 9:18AM

25 Thai Bhat

Posted by Anal_yst, Mar 18, 2008 9:27AM

@ 8:54

And that is the FINANCIAL press...the other media outlets are even worse, ugh...

Posted by AJ, Mar 18, 2008 9:27AM

The building purchase option staying with JPM even if the deal isn't completed is ingenious. Who's going to put in a higher bid if JPM can buy the building out from under them?

Also, the baht was in the mid-40s last time I was in Thailand. Stupid weak dollar.

Posted by guest, Mar 18, 2008 9:33AM

Well I'm going to Thailand in May and expected everything other than flight and hotel to be cheap. Stupid me...

Posted by Anal_yst, Mar 18, 2008 9:50AM

Anyone else catch in the merger agreement apparently ABN Amro is the lessor? Anyone got some insite into that?

Posted by guest, Mar 18, 2008 10:02AM

@8:39, if you don't think that LEH is hiding a ton of subprime off balance sheet you are on drugs, and when it hits the fan, you don't want to be anywhere near it son

Posted by guest, Mar 18, 2008 10:07AM

newsflash, it already hit the fan. wake up, broker dealers are going out of business.

Posted by guest, Mar 18, 2008 10:25AM

MER and LEH both hiding things, wait and see. MER hs 31 billion in subprime that is about as liquid as the concrete in Cramers head

Posted by guest, Mar 18, 2008 10:50AM

Can someone get an analyst to run a excel sheet of total #/$ insider sales at BSC for last 5yrs?

Spector had 500,000 Shs in August and has 15,000 today.

Yahoo does it for last yr and the #s are huge

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