Let's Predict the Fed Move -- Because Don Would Have Wanted It That Way

Posted by Bess Levin, Apr 29, 2008, 4:45pm

two_old_men_zoom1.jpgA few readers have noted that the wheels are coming off here in the absence of our fearless leader, Ron Blarney, and his capacious intellect and market moving insight. While I could never hope to bring the same gravitas that he has demonstrated in his coverage of the rice market, I will now endeavor to honor the memory of Lon Varney, via his famed ‘What Will The Fed Do?’ poll. Bon always took such pride in the predictive prowess of the DealBreaker Fed Poll, and while it is indelibly linked to him and him only, I know he would’ve wanted us to carry it on in his absence. And, I bet you his annual take home (2 large) that he’s looking down on us and smiling. To those of you who think I am the local yokel—btw, how dare you—and that it is sacrilegious of me to attempt to climb on the shoulders of a giant, please realize that I approach this subject with the greatest humility, and self-awareness that I could never come close to Don Klarney’s level of magisterial prognostication.



For the uninformed: Maestro69 and GandalFED are the screen names of Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, respectively.

3Recommend this! 20Comments

Tags: Fed

Comments

Posted by guest, Apr 29, 2008 4:47PM

It'dbe great if they raised rates a lot and fucked every commodity fund.

Posted by guest, Apr 29, 2008 4:50PM

at the conclusion of the poll, will you proudly crow "our brilliant readers nailed the 25 bps cut" even though the market is already priced to 80% chance of a 25 bps cut, to honor JC the way he would want it

Posted by Investorcluzo, Apr 29, 2008 5:00PM

@4:50 - do you really think that db readers know where to look for probability/size of a rate cut? I think you give them (us) too much credit...bessy is just doing what her alter ego would want done.

now how about citi offering $3 billion more in common stock...share price taking another hit after hours (as would be expected)

Posted by guest, Apr 29, 2008 5:05PM

How many C employees will get fired now? Hopefully at least 10,000....I'd hate that capital to be spent on worthless banker wannabees

Posted by guest, Apr 29, 2008 5:06PM

@investorcluzo...you're right. YOU, a db reader, probably are too dumb to know where to look for probability/size of a rate cut.

Posted by Lowly Assistant, Apr 29, 2008 5:08PM

Have I had one too many cans of Sparks, or does this post contain a shout-out to Maestro69 and another Goya painting? The world is still okay, even with that sudden infiltration of Germans a few articles back.

Makes me want to participate with the Pinecone Research Panel, I'm so happy.

Posted by guest, Apr 29, 2008 5:15PM

ffip

Posted by guest, Apr 29, 2008 5:18PM

@5:15 what does 'ffip' stand for?

Posted by guest, Apr 29, 2008 5:19PM

@investorcluzo-- carney isn't bess's alter ego...must this be spelled out for you? this post was written to make a mockery of rb (ron blarney) (and succeeds brilliantly).

Posted by onetwo , Apr 29, 2008 5:27PM

ffip =fed funds implied probability on bberg

Posted by guest, Apr 29, 2008 5:47PM

@4:47

Don't hate

Posted by Investorcluzo, Apr 29, 2008 5:48PM

@5:06 - you found me out! you are indeed brilliant. probably why you're posting on a blog and not making billions at SAC (a$$clown).

@5:19 - the alter ego thing is a long running joke, but appreciate the clarification.

Posted by guest, Apr 29, 2008 5:49PM

sounds like Cluz can dish it out but can't take it:

"Posted by Investorcluzo, Apr 29, 2008 5:00PM

@4:50 - do you really think that db readers know where to look for probability/size of a rate cut?"

Posted by Anal_yst, Apr 29, 2008 5:52PM

@ 4:50 unfortunately not all of us are sitting infront of a bbg, much to my dissapointment, sigh...

Posted by guest, Apr 29, 2008 5:52PM

no. the (dumb) joke was that bess is carney's alter ego, not the other way around, cluzy.

Posted by diablo, Apr 29, 2008 5:55PM

Or see here:

http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/data/fedfunds/index.cfm

Posted by Investorcluzo, Apr 29, 2008 6:11PM

@5:49 - if you can't see the sarcasm in the comment, then the comment was lost on you. and yes, I can "take it". notice I post under an alias - at a minimum you can track all of my comments and agree/disagree with me (even if you don't know who I really am).

@5:52 - if you had gone to the spitzer event, you would know where the joke came from. that said, if you find the joke dumb, it wasn't meant for you. but let me ask you this: have you ever met bess?

Posted by Investorcluzo, Apr 29, 2008 6:14PM

@5:49 - you misquoted me: note that I included (us), ie. including myself, which pokes fun at myself as well. so you, my friend, also missed the joke...

Posted by guest, Apr 29, 2008 7:45PM

I personally guarantee .25% cut. I stake my reputation on it. All in memory of Don Klanrey, God rest his soul.

Posted by guest, Apr 30, 2008 9:39AM

Investorclueless even if you do not have a bloomberg, have you turned on cnbc or read the wsj or even looked at yahoo finance in the past month they all could have told you the consensus is for 25bps

Post Your Comment