Opening Bell: 4.17.08

merlynchlogo.jpgMerrill Lynch posts steep first-quarter loss on write-downs (AP) At first blush, Merrill's earnings don't look so good, though who knows how these things play out during the day. The company posted another wide loss -- $2.14 billion -- which was deeper than analysts estimated. Revenue also came in below expectations, which may be the real story here. Here's the actual release. While the headline gives the basic numbers, the subheadline trumpets: "Record Quarterly Net Revenues in Global Wealth Management." Well that's something. Another something: 4,000 jobs are expected to be cut, says the company in the report.


U.S. Proposes Auctioning Runway Slots to Curb Delays at La Guardia (NYT)
This is interesting: The US Department of Transportation, in hopes of finding some way to ease flight delays, is looking to trial a system of auctioning runway slots at La Guardia. We're not sure how well it would work, and it's just a modicum of the regulatory reform we'd like to see, but we like it. Why not go for it. If you can find some way to determine a market price for something that's not being priced on a market, then we're all for it. Of course, the response to the proposal has been laughably predictable. Governor Paterson called the proposal "woefully misguided", while saying it would end up costing consumers more (as we say, better to pay in money than in time). While the president of an industry group said: "It is truly mystifying, with the airline industry in a financial meltdown due to overwhelming fuel prices, that D.O.T. decides now is the time for a costly economics experiment at La Guardia.” Dumb.

SLM Has Loss as Student Loan Business Looks `Broken' (Bloomberg)
Another horrendous quarter from Sallie Mae, which remains unable to sell its portfolio of student loans. How come though. Do they really think the bright eyed college kids of America will one day turn out to be deadbeats. Well, they're probably right. At least everyone we know is.

Yahoo-Google Deal Advances (WSJ)
A week later, and Yahoo's search ad test with Google is going well... so well that the two are closer to signing a real deal, whereby Yahoo would outsource search ads to Google on some ongoing basis. It's not exactly clear how that would work, nor would such an agreement necessarily thwart Microsoft. Nor would this necessarily pass anti-trust muster. But the trial is due to an end in a week, but there'll probably be movement before then.

Unionized Atlantic City casino dealers still lack contracts (AP)
Unionization will only offer you so much. That's what dealers an AC have found out. They're united, but united sans contracts, which sort of makes the whole point of a union a little moot. Said one dealer at Caesers: "We played by the rules, won an election, and wanted to deal fairly and squarely... But the company still doesn't get it. That's why we are stepping up this fight." The whole thing reminds us of a time we were playing poker at Binion's in Vegas and the dealer kept apologizing for the slow pace of cocktail delivery: "they're unionized."

Dozens Involved In Wild Brawl In Nyack (WCBSTV.com)
Ok, not technically finance or business related, but sometimes we like to throw in a regional story of interest. Check out this major brawl in Nyack that involved such weapons as knives, bats, claw hammers and an ax.

Rio Tinto soars on raised bid talk (FT Alphaville)
It's our regret that we haven't more closely covered the BHP Billiton-Rio Tinto dramatics in closer detail. Apparently there's renewed chatter of a higher hostile between from the world's #1 base metal miner. Nothing's certain, and a spike in Rio Tinto shares yesterday may have just been the result of a positive outlook.

Shareholder Democracy and the Myth of the Mom and Pop Investor (Conglomerate)
An interesting discussion about the significance of the "mom and pop" investor, and how their (non?)-existence affects debates over shareholder democracy. Our gut says that the mom and pop investors really care the least about shareholder democracy stuff. Seriously, when was the last time you heard some random guy grousing about a dual class structure or independent board members. Usually those things are brought up by activists, and even then, it's not a matter of philosophy, but just a desire to get their noms on the board.

Comments

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 8:08AM

anyone on the merrill call? Thain definitely reads dealbreaker.

Whatup Thain!!!

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 8:10AM

sincerely, s75.

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 8:18AM

What? really, what evidence was there that he reads deal breaker?

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 8:32AM

"We are capitalized under the risk rated
asset tests. And for those of you who like to blog, we do not have any plans to raise any additional common equity. And Nelson actually agrees with that."
s75

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 8:34AM

whassaaaaap gangstas

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 8:49AM

nah, doesn't prove anything. Pretty sure if thain read this site he'd have had one of his boys from MIT hack into the server and take down his daughter's picture weeks ago.

Posted by girl, Apr 17, 2008 8:49AM

Why is it a ridiculous assumption that the added prices would be passed onto consumers re: the auctioning of runway slots? I know your 'intended audience' purportedly shits money but I personally would rather not pay an extra couple hundred to suffer the indignity that is flying coach.

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 8:52AM

True. No airline at Laguardia can give up its NYC gates.

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 8:54AM

@ girl:

You haven't sprung for a NetJets card yet?

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 9:01AM

right he must have meant some other blog that was making jokes about nelson chai

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 9:20AM

Funny thing about that news report of a brawl in Nyack. They never mention why other than gang related. Didn't know they had gangs there. I don't think it was gang related. I think it was the bitterness Obama was talking about.

Don't be bitter Nyack people!

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 9:29AM

Nyack definitely has some bad gang violence. Drugs and shit.

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 9:29AM

Welch said he'd shoot Immelt yesterday.

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 9:59AM

The reason the Lt. Gov is pissed is because if they auction slots at Laguardia the first to go will be those little regional jets that fly to Albany, Buffalo, the Cuse, etc...Of course those jets with like 70 people on them are a huge part of the problem because they cause same amount of congestion as a bigger plane with 150 ppl. I think that the impact on fares wouldn't be so dire.

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 10:10AM

Great bear coverage...

Posted by ab, Apr 17, 2008 10:15AM

@9:59

agreed. the barriers to entry in the current system let them jack up the prices right now.

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 10:15AM

Dollar for dollar tax credit for repayment of student loans. I'd write the check tomorrow if I could apply it to 2007.

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 10:25AM

@9:59 People shouln't be taking planes to Albany, Hartford, Boston. That's what a train is for. Problem is the trains are slow and generally shitty. We should take a cue from the French. High speed trains from Paris and the CDG airport rocket you around the country. Americans though love their cheep gas. Would never part with a few $ per gallon in taxes to put a system like that in place. Also, the thing is already ruined beyond repair, with the sprawling growth here, thanks to above mentioned cheep gas and too much spent on highways. So people can move far away from anyone with dark skin. European model is dense central cities surrounded by countryside.

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 10:46AM

@10:25

Move to Europe.

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 10:53AM

@10.25 -- that racist!!!

But I'd be happy to move far away from you!

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 10:55AM

fuck the french and fuck their countryside.

good wine though.

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 11:00AM

Except that wine's getting a little expensive lately. Guess you can't run triple defecits forever and expect to have a strong currency. Maybe I should move to Europe. Or maybe not, cause 1/21/09 is right around the corner. And all three of the possible alternatives are a big improvment over the useless dunce that's currently in charge.

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 11:06AM

You can move to europe but you will just be poor over there since presumably most of your wealth is $ denominated right now or you wouldnt be bitching about dollar weakness.

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 11:13AM

@11:06 Actually, I'll just be less rich.

Posted by Suits, Apr 17, 2008 11:19AM

@10:25,

Right on. You know what I see when I see traffic jams? Reminds me of people lining up for free government cheese. Driving is way too cheap in this country. Gas tax should be $3/gal. Funny that the same people arguing for market pricing of air travel are against market pricing of ground travel.

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 11:33AM

Suit: You must be one of those NY City communists that rides public transportation. Skinny like those girls on Sex in the City that my wife gets such a big kick over. I'm a true American and have the right to haul my fat ass whereever I want in my SUV, accompanied by a 32 ounce soda in the cup holder.

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 11:33AM

sounds like a dumb trade to me.

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 11:36AM

those tired hoes are not skinny.

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 11:41AM

@11:36 No? Three of em could fit into one of my wife's dresses. Four into her stretchy pants that she wears to Sam's Club.

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 11:50AM

really terrific Bear coverage.

The Sex and the City girls are skinny. Remember, the camera adds ten pounds.

Posted by onetwo , Apr 17, 2008 11:57AM

1. OK, this is ridiculous. As Joe alluded to, time IS money. There is an opportunity cost with every second of your life. That opportunity cost is borne in one of two ways: monetarily (someone pays you more to do something than you believe it is worth relative to other pursuits) or in time where you simply forego the accounting. Money is the currency of time.

This is why at the end of the day socialized medicine (or socialized anything for that matter) is no more effective at containing costs than free-market based constructs. While the accountants may claim it "costs" less (debateable at best, but not the point), they forget to include the reduction in productivity as a cost. If you are waiting in line--whether it's for a cat scan or food--you aren't doing anything else. Sounds crazy, right? Cursed physics and the space-time continuum. Paying for a good simply rationalizes and monetizes the opportunity cost of waiting. If the opportunity cost is greater than the compensation you forego the opportunity. Hence, yes, the flights to Albany et al create negative externalities on the other flights around them. The landing slots are not proportional to the number of people on the plane, so by NOT auctioning them you are saying that each one of the 30 passengers' time on a rej jet to DC is worth 10x than the passengers' time on a 747.

Heck, I just spoke with 'girl' and asked what she thought the price increase would be with auction pricing. She didn't know. She didn't even have a guess. I don't say this to deride girl, she's great, but her automatic reflexive assumption was that airfare would increase dramatically (2x-3x). This was without any fundamental basis. I don't know how much the airfare would increase, but it would HAVE to be less than the opportunity costs of waiting--by definition.

Congress has been howling at the airlines for their poor on-time performance (as if it's an inalienable right), but lack the audacity to let a market remedy the problem internalize negative externalities. They complain that a merger would raise prices and be 'unfair' to consumers just as airlines are on the road to bankruptcy again. etc. etc. They simply want to implement their ideals by fiat. Thanks, I believe the USSR tried that. Of course we could always go back to the 'good ol days' when airfare was 5-6x it's current prices because the government got to control it. Ahhhh, the good ol days.

Done ranting.

Posted by Anal_yst, Apr 17, 2008 12:01PM

First guest is that airfare for the flights to albany, 'cuse, wilkes-barre, etc would go up dramatically, as they should, and popular route pricing could potentially go down, as it should.

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 1:01PM

What about the restraint on regional trade by only larger jets carrying more people farther outbidding routes of smaller flights?

Posted by girl, Apr 17, 2008 1:19PM

*sigh*

stop providing valid points 1-2, this is a forum for the inane exclusively!

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 1:36PM

oh, girl, it does the heart good to see you and 1-2 back sparring on db.

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 1:42PM

btw, based on the conference call comment, I agree Thain reads db. Hope he's not too pissed off about the comments about his daughter. I think biological family members of CEOs should be off-limits because they can't control circumstances of birth.

Does Jamie Dimon read db? I hope so. Yesterday I posted that he has a tin ear for public relations if he's musing aloud about taking over a regional bank while JP Morgan Chase digests and spits out the bones of Bear.

Plus I wondered if Dimon had a Napoleonic complex. Meaning he likes to conquer, but not necessarily to administer.

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 1:56PM

The WSJ blog is puffing out its chest and claiming Thain meant their blog. Not bloody likely.

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 2:04PM

deal journal is delusional if they think thain was talking about them and not db, considering the fact that a quick search shows that they didn't even mention the nelson chai quote yesterday (http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/?s=nelson&x=0&y=0), which was part of the joke that thain was referring to when he said "nelson agrees with me." idiots.

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 2:09PM

@1:42 Don't know Dimon, but I've heard he carries a holder with a stack of notecards that make it difficult for his lieutenants to escape even half baked committments. Sounds like a very effective administrator. Larry Bossidy (Allied Signal), who I do know, did the same kind of thing. You couldn't escape it. If you didn't deliver, you were toast.

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 2:25PM

its a blood bath at bear, 13000 gone

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 2:57PM

There's two posts to this effect re Bear. Can someone confirm the news?

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 3:27PM

I haven't seen anything to confirm @2:25 pm, plus this news is being challenged on another post. @2:25pm, can you direct us to your source?

Posted by guest, Apr 17, 2008 8:59PM

@2:25pm is a wicked person for spreading false rumors.

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