Opening Bell: 4.28.08

marsbarlogo.jpgMars, Buffett Team Up in Wrigley Bid (WSJ) Next weekend's Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting is gonna be sweet (rimshot)! Word is that the company is going to team up with Mars to buy out Wrigley, really putting a strangleholde on the candy industry. The value for the deal is pegged at $22 billion. Exact terms are unclear. BRK may provided Mars with the financing to do the deal and then become a major Mars shareholder. But, given all the talk about how the chocolate makers may or may not have an oligopoly, probably smart for some other end sellers to find strength in numbers.


Continental Airlines Chooses Not to Merge
Forget what ya heard. Continental does not plan to merge with another airline. Some reports over the weekend suggested the carrier was in talks -- mergers are the hot thing now, after 5 or 6 airlines have gone bankrupt, and while others have agreed to tie up. But Continental specifically sent out a press release saying it all wasn't true. From a letter sent to employees (and now to shareholders): "We have significant cultural, operational and financial strengths compared to the rest of the industry, and we want to protect and enhance those strengths -- which we believe would be placed at risk in a merger with another carrier in today's environment."

Eos Airlines Crashes (PE Hub)
Oh right, speaking of bankruptcies, Eos is the latest. The company isn't doing some in-bankruptcy operation. Nope, just shutting down completely. Yesterday was its final day of flying between New York and London (Stansted). What we need is about 10 more of these, including some huge ones, and the remaining ones might actually be able to perform better. BTW, it looks as though the Eos website is down too. Who wants to pay for hosting? Nobody.

Oil Rises to Record on U.K. Pipeline Shutdown, Nigerian Attack (Bloomberg)
You might be able to make the argument that this is the most common headline of the last four years. Like really. Anyway, oil is near $120 now, so that's probably a foregone conclusion. And that means $125 is too. Even without Nigerian attacks, the trend seems to be solidly up.

Dental Clinics, Meeting a Need With No Dentist (NYT)
Maybe we're just drinking the Kool-Aid too much, but we're pretty bullish on the idea that technicians could replace the work of a number of full-on pros in several professions. The latest area, according to the NYT, dental technicians, serving "underserved" communities with basic dental care. Sounds good. But you know: once the NYT picks up on it, the trend is totally over.

AMD launches 1st computer brand, for businesses (Reuters)
Sure, this is totally logical. The struggling chipmaker AMD plans to move into a lower-margin, more competitive industry with lower barriers to entry. Yep, it plans to go vertical, not just making the chips, but selling its own brand of computers (for business). For now, the company says it will eschew the retail model, but c'mon. Will they resist the lure of having their own AMD stor in Soho, ala Apple. We thinks not.

Huzza for Commerce! (Reason)
As the Opening Bell is currently on the road, staying in hotels, this article seemed worth passing along: "Hotels, then and now, are a material manifestation of a world that prizes free mobility and peaceful exchange. “The built environment expresses the values of the people that created it,” writes Sandoval-Strausz. In a time when America is spending billions to build a wall along its southern border, this brilliant history is a reminder that the fear of the traveling stranger is something we have overcome before."

Microsoft faces critical decision over Yahoo (FT)
Well, the deadline for Yahoo came and went this weekend (with nothing happening). And there was some expectation that Microsoft might announce its reaction this morning (so far, nothing). FT suggests that the question of what to do next: raise, go hostile, walk, is still being debated in Redmond, and that a decision may be pushed back to "mid-week" (so probably Wednesday).

Comments

Posted by guest, Apr 28, 2008 7:32AM

My Molly Syrus downfall future are through the roof this morning, thanks anal_yst!

Now if those swiss-francs can get a good sized black hole up and running I can retire on my end-of-the-future' futures profits.

Posted by guest, Apr 28, 2008 7:44AM

Joe

you're wrong AMD is not struggling. I remember when I was in 9th grade and built a computer with an AMD K6 processor. Back them I was an AMD shareholder and never dreamed AMD would ever be sold in HP, dell and other computers. Now a brutal price war has kept tremendous market share gains from flowing to free cash flow and that's going to be the nature of the industry indefinitely. But to say AMD is struggling is to show little knowledge of history. Its like saying apple is struggling because the stock price is down from 200 in January.

Posted by guest, Apr 28, 2008 7:53AM

why what happened to miley now?

Posted by guest, Apr 28, 2008 9:21AM


The mainstream crypto-porn merchants can't wait to get their hands on little Miley Cyrus. Nice.

Posted by guest, Apr 28, 2008 9:43AM

what i want to know -- nay, *demand* to know -- is what's the latest intel on rice futures? now that passover's done i'm all up in that shit.

Posted by guest, Apr 28, 2008 9:45AM

Miley Cyrus futures are locked limit down.

Posted by guest, Apr 28, 2008 9:46AM

UBS to fire 8,000 and RBS to fire 7,000. Damn swiss always have to one up people!

Posted by guest, Apr 28, 2008 9:46AM

Never trade rice futures with a broker named "Paddy".

Posted by guest, Apr 28, 2008 9:53AM

MMMMMMMMMMM....I want Buffet's creamy nugget filling. Those old balls and loose skin get me so hot.

Posted by guest, Apr 28, 2008 10:14AM

Just think....all you little Wall Streeters would be on your way to Buffett-like personal legend status, too, if you hadn't fucked up subprime by nearly a trillion red dollars. Now you have to go back and start over. Just compund 50% for a few dozen years and then report back, please. (Re: Buffett.....All the sucker MDs call him "Sire!")

Posted by guest, Apr 28, 2008 10:35AM

Before I got sucked into finance, I did an interview to work as an analyst for EOS Airlines. The interview went great, but I never got a call back. Thank god I dodged that bullet.

Posted by Anal_yst, Apr 28, 2008 10:43AM

I just want to say a big Thank You to Vanity Fair, for "taking advantage" of Miley and her wholesome father, Billy Ray, for that supposed "artistic" photo shoot. Its only a matter of time...

Posted by guest, Apr 28, 2008 11:18AM

Eos..could have seen that one coming. Got a free ticket when they first launched so i took it. Then it was delayed on our way back from London so they gave everyone another free ticket. too bad they went under before I could use that one.

Posted by guest, Apr 28, 2008 11:20AM

To the various NY mini-ballers I came across at the Acme Oyster House and other establishments in New Orleans late last week:

I hope your game improved over the weekend and that no one had the following incident...

http://youtube.com/watch?v=5vFEn0R0u10

--Calgary Schmooze

Posted by guest, Apr 28, 2008 11:38AM

EOS was by far the best service between London and NY for the price. 1/2 the price of Virgin or BA upper class and service that was equally as good plus you did not have to pile onto a plane with 300 people in steerage or deal with customs at Heathrow. It is a shame that they didn't make it. They are leaving behind a huge gap in the airline business. Silverjet is just a glorified premium economy carrier, they will certinly fold as did MaxJet. EOS was truely civilized, 48 people on a plane built for 220, flat beds, quality food and service, etc. I am dreading my next trip to London on the other carriers!

Posted by StupidEquityGuy, Apr 28, 2008 11:44AM

Today should be interesting...

My 3 year old has gone on Day Care Strike... She has decided its time for her to skip her education and hang out with Dad and make sure there is a female around to supervise my action's.

Its going to be interesting having a back seat driver in the little red rocket today... legally she can fit in the back, (I think)... but I think she maybe sitting up front with me. Those seat belts are a joke in back... maybe a bag of grocery's could fit.

I feel sorry for my staff, everyone knows who the real Boss is, and its not me. My trading desk is going to bouncing around changing DVD's of cartoons...

I sent a pre notice to my trading team and they told me I was fired today and to stay home... No joke...

Flockers...

Time to deploy a terrible 3 year old on their quiet trading pit.

~SEG

Posted by guest, Apr 28, 2008 11:44AM

@11:38 - You're 'dreading' BA or Virgin business class travel? There are people in Haiti eating dirt, you fucking ninny.

Posted by Investorcluzo, Apr 28, 2008 11:48AM

the joke's on the big fat mouse! miley and her redneck dad are looking for the next big thing. if they stayed with big walt, she would never grow up...the downfall will be short lived. let's just hope she's more like x-tina and not brit in her next life! wish I would have bought some of those futures (seems just like the bear's fall)...

Posted by guest, Apr 28, 2008 11:51AM

SEG: glad I'm not you. One of the few good things about work is that there are no children here.

Posted by guest, Apr 28, 2008 11:52AM

I have a couple serious questions for you all.
1. Is the "credit crisis" over?
2. If in fact it is what should the financial names be trading at? Where are thier future earings/profits coming from?
Thanks all.

Posted by guest, Apr 28, 2008 12:00PM

@11:52 - the answer is 8. All financial names should be trading at 8:

http://longorshortcapital.com/what-are-investment-banks-and-financial-companies-worth.htm

Posted by Investorcluzo, Apr 28, 2008 12:11PM

@11:52 - over? what is "over"? better yet, what is your definition of "crisis". banks still aren't lending. I don't work on the desk, but I have to believe that the securitization market is still tight with the purse strings. that said, deals are still getting done by the deep pocketed ones (ie. let's call buffett and get him to lend us money to complete our acquisition)...as for trading value, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. book should be a floor, but what is book? i-banks with 20-25% roe's used to get 2x+, so there is plenty of upside if you believe this is part of a cycle...

Posted by guest, Apr 28, 2008 12:21PM

Banks still aren't lending? In 1Q banks increased earnings assets in every category on a linked quarter and year-over-year basis. C&I, CRE, consumer and mortgage loans were all up What makes you think banks aren't lending? Maybe your credit just isn't good enough.
s75

Posted by guest, Apr 28, 2008 12:28PM

Buffett already owns good chocolate (See's); Mars has been on the block (greedy heirs) for a while, in earnest for at least 18 months.

Mars distribution gets See's to the East Coast. Good deal for both sides.

And Buffett's managers actually want to make the company work, not just get rich because granddad did the work.

Posted by onetwo , Apr 28, 2008 12:28PM

@11:52

I have the same question: why would anyone buy a BD or bank right now? Even if you think you can trust that book value is fairly valued (bleak) the question is where will future earnings come from?

Posted by Investorcluzo, Apr 28, 2008 12:33PM

@12:21 - not your local keycorp branch, the major players. look at all the news about revolvers getting pulled by the likes of bofa and citi. the reason banks showed an uptick is because they couldn't securitize that crap. as for me, my credit score is 790 (a$$clown), I TURN DOWN THE BANKS when they come knocking on my door. nice try...

Posted by guest, Apr 28, 2008 12:50PM

@ 11.51, that would be what my traders say/think also... I can set her up with a play office here, if I have too...

If this strike lasts much longer, I will be trading from home full time, and visiting my office @ night when Mrs Trophy Equity can watch the girls while I go to "Work" to sign doc's...

Best,

~SEG

Posted by guest, Apr 28, 2008 1:24PM

A HIGH CHOLESTEROL PORTFOLIO

Warren Buffet may be a great investor. But be careful — Some of his companies are bad for your health.

Coca Cola (KO)

Dairy Queen (private)

See’s Candy (private)

Wrigley’s/Mars

Kraft


http://talkingtechnicals.tumblr.com/

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Posted by StupidEquityGuy, Apr 28, 2008 1:49PM

Well that didn't last long... She fired everyone after getting her way around the office for less then an hour...

Decided she was ready for her escort home and as I walked out the door, my team cheered...

~SEG

At least I am green on the day... my NG contracts (long calls) are offsetting the rest of my stupidity today...

Posted by guest, Apr 28, 2008 2:52PM

@11:44

No need to bring Haiti into this just because your shim sham operation of a firm (probably Bear..lol) makes you fly cattle class!!! I know you aspire to fly Virgin or BA business class one day but for most of us on here it sucks!! EOS was the way to go.

As for your term "ninny"...good one, I think my grandmother used that once or twice!!

You must be a back office grunt!!

Posted by guest, Apr 28, 2008 2:53PM

@11:44

No need to bring Haiti into this just because your shim sham operation of a firm (probably Bear..lol) makes you fly cattle class!!! I know you aspire to fly Virgin or BA business class one day but for most of us on here it sucks!! EOS was the way to go.

As for your term "ninny"...good one, I think my grandmother used that once or twice!!

You must be a back office grunt!!

Posted by guest, Apr 28, 2008 5:04PM

@SEG--Dont be so proud dude, you're doing woman's work. Get the wife or girlfriend to take care of the kid. NOBODY thinks its cute when you bring your kid into the office, or you leave early for daddy day care. Just because you got some bitch pregnant and she had the kid, dont feel you have to sacrifice your life to run around like a sissyboy. Let women do women's work, and men do manly things. Otherwise, the world just ain't right.

Posted by guest, Apr 28, 2008 5:26PM

@ 5:04 i am going to bet that you have neither a wife or a girlfriend. Your action is limited to the palm of your hand or cyberspace. Or you are eliot spitzer.
For the record i have been a lone female trader in three different bull pens and i love it when the guys bring their kids in. Nothing like seeing a guy who makes others quiver brought to his knees by a 3 year old.

Posted by guest, Apr 28, 2008 5:54PM

@5.26--shouldnt you be making dinner at home for your husband? I get a lot of beaver, from chicks who want a nice house in Greenwich, nice clothes, cars etc.....they expect to stay home with kids, make dinner and run the house. They also expect me to make a significant income to support them in a comfortable life. We each have our gears to turn to make our lives work. Somehow, I think the only male attention YOU get involves AA batteries. Maybe if you got off your soapbox (or dildo by the gross box) and acted somewhat feminine you'd do everyone, including yourself, a favor.

Now, be a good girl and make me a drink.

Posted by StupidEquityGuy, Apr 29, 2008 12:22AM

@5:04,

Yo Cheesesteak runner... I founded the FIRM... We are a multi fund HF. Unless you write the checks, and have the marketing material wrapped around your past experience... Eat the Sandwich, STFU...


~SEG

Posted by guest, Apr 29, 2008 7:30AM

@SEG-- You fakers are so easy to spot. I've never met a successful guy who takes kids to work, when there's work to be done. Now, why dont you be a good guy and go get my dry cleaning. Oh wait, I dont trust you with cash, so, go clean the bathroom. Chop, chop.

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