Opening Bell: 4.30.08

GMLogo.jpgGM Reports Preliminary First Quarter 2008 Financial Results What, did GM become a Wall St. bank? The company lost $3.3 billion in the quarter, related to various things including GMAC stuff and a strike at American Axle. The good news: on an adjusted basis, it only lost $350 million, which is at least believable. If they'd reported an adjusted profit -- as these companies are sometimes prone to do -- we wouldn't be buying it. The automaker also reduced its units sold forecast in light of the economy.


Shortages Threaten Farmers’ Key Tool: Fertilizer (NYT)
All of the sudden, fertilizer is hot hot hot? What was it that Cramer said the other day? He said Monsanto was the new biotech stock (or something like that) and that fertilizer players were the new Pfizer or some such -- basically fixing the issue, but not curing it. Is the fertilizer shortage a big problem? We have no informed opinion other than to say that eventually this endless cycle of shortages (grain, land, water, energy etc.) will probably snap at some point in some way.

Fed expected to cut key interest rates one more time (AP)
Has anyone one made a "hit me Bernanke one more time" joke before? Surely. But anyway, the markets are expecting one more cheap hit of cheap money and Bernanke is, in all likelihood, going to deliver. Why can't he be firm and just say no? Who knows, but he just won't. If you're a hawk, the good news is: this may be the last one. Right.

Microsoft's Next Move on Yahoo is Imminent (WSJ)
The report says Microsoft's next "move" is imminent, though it really sounds like a non-move more than anything else. Rather than decide what it wants to do (go hostile or walk), Microsoft is expected to do a time-buyer, nominate a slate of its own directors, but not really bring a case to shareholders. Good: more delay.

A New Wave of Vilifying Short Sellers (NYT)
As we've said a million times, complaining about short sellers is the last refuge of a scoundrel -- no doubt. For once though, the issue isn't those shameless "naked" short sellers, but rather those rumor mongers, whose desire to make a quick buck can lead to the downfall of entire companies -- or countries! Not that these ne'er-do-wells are identified. They're more like a mythical creature that you find in the woods. But they must stop terrorizing our children tout suite.

Gore investment body closes $683m fund (FT)
Al Gore has a fund? We had no idea. Not that we're surprised. The old green definitely has a capitalist streak, even if its that "capitalism can change the world" style of west-coast capitalism (which we happen to subscribe to for the most part, just with some minor tweaks). Anyway, he's now got a big $683 million war chest to change the climate back to normal.

This Election Could Devastate The Cattle Industry (Beef Magazine)
Read up on this important issue.

Comments

Posted by american bandersnatch, Apr 30, 2008 8:00AM

I think you missed a key story which I need help interpreting.

EP's latest blog entry indicates in reference to Blockbuster "Oh, sure, you can get microwave popcorn, Raisinets and Ju-Ju Bees at the counter after the third fight with your significant other in as many minutes about which chick flick not to get because last time you watched The Break Up and the first 5 episodes of Season 2 of Sex in the City without complaining even once (she won't be impressed no matter how quiet you were, trust me), but that's about it."

Possibly this is autobiographical - EP's significant other is a she which will break many hearts but fills in a few blanks in the EP Soduku puzzle. Is that interpretation a reach? Could one of the Equity analysts that read this blog provide input?

Posted by Finnegan, Apr 30, 2008 9:30AM

Betting EP targets her writing to her audience (mostly males), so uses their point of view.

Posted by guest, Apr 30, 2008 9:44AM

Actually, I have it on good authority that EP is actually Robert Mugabe, writing in whatever spare time he can carve out of flushing his country down the toilet. The apparently autobiographical clues and hints--such as a surprisingly detailed view of Switzerland's military strategy and history during WWII and the quote you refer to--are simply a clever ruse used to confound you for EP's private amusement. The biggest red herring of the bunch is "her" references to Stanford.

Unless, of course, (s)he is actually Lloyd Blankfein. I give that even odds.

TED

Posted by onetwo , Apr 30, 2008 9:44AM

She was telling men that their Sex in the City watching wasn't going to actually get them anywhere, not that she can't get her 'girlfriends' to like her for watching 'Sex' as you imply.

Posted by ep, Apr 30, 2008 10:05AM

"Possibly this is autobiographical - EP's significant other is a she which will break many hearts but fills in a few blanks in the EP Soduku puzzle. Is that interpretation a reach? Could one of the Equity analysts that read this blog provide input?"

Totally autobiographical. I watched (and listened to) the hapless couple at issue from afar the last time I drifted into Blockbuster. The purpose of my open-letter advice to the male is simple: correct information asymmetry.

The motivations behind Stanford references are no secret at all if you bother to read Going Private carefully (or if you've ever met a decent sample of Stanford grads).

Posted by guest, Apr 30, 2008 10:07AM

Oh. I was thinking Stanford was the gay guy that's Cary's friend on Sex in the City.

Posted by Anal_yst, Apr 30, 2008 10:50AM

Rumour has it that Al Gore's "Fund" bought space in guess which soon-to-be-opened green-tastic midtown building...good thing since BofA has some extra space, but more on that later today/this week

Posted by guest, Apr 30, 2008 11:04AM

Bear full, final & comlete hangings friday.

Its offical

Posted by guest, Apr 30, 2008 12:16PM

11:04am -- I heard a different version. JP Morgan is running behind on managing the merger, and that they sent emissaries around to various Bear units that were still producing. The emissary told people their hard work was being noticed and appreciated, and the hard workers would all would get bigger bonuses or a permanent job at JP Morgan. The Bear people made appreciative sounds and went back to work, expecting nothing ...

Posted by guest, Apr 30, 2008 2:22PM

Reuters based in London said lay-offs at Bear are proceeding today. A number of London employees confirmed that they had been notified that they would stay on, or had been terminated, as the case might be. The Reuters story also said that a JP Morgan memo that surfaced Monday said all final employment decisions would be made by June 1, 2008.

Posted by guest, Apr 30, 2008 2:31PM

I hear jpm cant stop laughing that bear employees think they have jobs and thats the reason for delay......

Posted by guest, Apr 30, 2008 3:58PM

I don't know that JPM laughter at the inexplicable feelings of self-worth among remaining Bear employees caused the delay.

Bringing in Bear operations to JPM without destroying its value proved to be more time-consuming and complex than Jamie Dimon and his management team first imagined, hence the delay in lay-offs. It's hard making good decisions on lay-offs if you don't have a handle on what people are doing and whether or not their activities are profitable in the long-term.

Mr. Dimon should be glad that his prayers of acquiring a regional retail bank at the same time as the Bear merger weren't immediately answered. JPM executives would be up to their necks in nothing but operational and HR issues, and what about cutting excess costs?

Posted by guest, Apr 30, 2008 5:35PM

Several Reuters dispatches dated today said the employment decisions at JP Morgan Chase/Bear would be made by May 31, 2008.

It makes sense to me because Bear Stearns separately announced that the special shareholder vote for ratifying the sale of Bear to JP Morgan will be held May 29, 2008.

The JP Morgan strategy seems simple: complete the takeover without further enraging Bear shareholders (many of whom also happen to be employees), then, when you hold all the cards, make your lay-offs.

Posted by guest, May 01, 2008 7:20AM

I heard JPM HR wanted to have BSCers wear 6-pointed gold stars so they could tell who would be terminated.

Post Your Comment