Barron’s has an article today about how even though no one knows anything about credit-default swaps, few people can resist speculating, the analysts in Charlie Gasparino’s lower abdomen included. Around 3 pm on January 30th the CNBC on-air editor said he “felt in his gut” that Ambac or MBIA or both would be downgraded. Nothing happened, but shares of both companies plummeted on the news. That’s right people—the gastrointestinal discomforts of Charlie Gasparino, who we’re told was seen wolfing down an Italian sub with rapidity that would distress even the steeliest of bellies, are now causing turmoil in the markets. So ridiculous we wish we could take credit for making it up. Damn you, Charlie Gasparino, for subconsciously ginning things up in response to our obsessive chronicling of your every Dago-esque utterance. It’s almost as though you want to make it impossible for us to parody you. Attributing insider information to the sources in your stomach is something WE do, not you.

Anyway. We can’t be too hard on Gasparino’s prognostication skills because, truth be told, who cares about being right or wrong when you’ve got that kind of power? Though we could never hope to match his market moving ability, we have decided to perform a small experiment of our own, just to see how we match up. Here’s the rub: we had some bad Chinese last night and are starting to feel violently ill. That’s got to mean something, no? At random points throughout the day, we’re going to pin the feelings of nausea waving over us to a little piece of news that we know isn’t true, and see what happens. Starting now: We feel in the pit in our stomach that Bear Stearns is going to pre-announce record earnings on the strength of its subprime mortgage funds. Make of that what you will.

Credit-Default Swaps: Weapons of Mass Speculation [Barron's]