Lehman Brothers Getting Ugly

At the end of last week we saw something of a bear run at Lehman Brothers, with traders pushing the stock down 6.2% on Friday. Options traders bought heavily in out of the money puts, including some heavy buying in some really far out of the money options that bet the stock will drop at least another ten dollars.

This morning both Bank of America and Sanford Berstein slashed their earnings estimates for Lehman. Many investors now expect Lehman to post a loss for the quarter. The price of default protection on Lehman debt blew out to 246 basis points.

Some are now saying that Lehman will have to engage in another round of capital raising to shore up its balance sheet and reassure investors that it won't face a liquidity crisis. At the more extreme end of the bearish outlook, some are saying that Lehman might already be talking to the Federal Reserve about emergency measures.

"With the sinking dollar, my bet is that these guys are already talking to the Fed in a similar bailout that was fashioned for Bear Stearns," an anonymous market watcher tells Christopher Cruden, the founder of Swiss hedge fund Insch Capital Management.

That's some pretty wild speculation coming from a totally unknown source. But these are wild times, and unknown sources have made some pretty spectacular and spectacularly right calls in recent months. We just thought we'd pass it along.

Update:
A spokesman for Lehman categorically denied the wild speculation.

Comments

1

Posted by Investorcluzo , May 27, 2008 8:59AM

I hate to start the day discussing barron's, but the latest issue repeated einhorn's comments from last week's conference about his disbelief in leh's numbers. and he's made no secret of his short position in the stock.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/governmentFilingsNews/idUKN2250537920080522

the question is: will this be another allied capital for david or will fuld fold?

2

Posted by guest , May 27, 2008 9:03AM

Haaaaarrrrrvvveyyyyy!

3

Posted by guest , May 27, 2008 10:26AM

There seems to be a noticable odor of fear in the air at the the Lehman 7th Aveneue bldg today. Similar to the odor at 383 Madison just a few months ago.

4

Posted by guest , May 27, 2008 11:11AM

In the words of Kevin Keegan, "I would love it if it happens"

5

Posted by guest , May 27, 2008 1:02PM


Unfortunately, LEH's stock is not believing the hype today, by stubbornly staying to the plus side for most of the day.

Thanks for playing.
Please insert another quarter.

6

Posted by StupidEquityGuy , May 27, 2008 1:41PM

@1:02,

Thats a correct description... I increased my position today... quickest way to give back some of the monster month in process...

Oh well... make the money in the oil pits... hand back over to the equity traders...

~SEG

Who is still silly green even if he doesn't deserve to be...

7

Posted by guest , May 27, 2008 1:55PM

hey dopey equity douche--why dont you post trades BEFORE the market moves, not make believe ones AFTER the mkt has moved?

8

Posted by guest , May 27, 2008 4:10PM

funny my understanding was prev that the vaunted $6.5 bn CDO that einhorn does not like the marks on is not even resi but mostly highly rates other ABS,

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