Opening Bell: 5.8.08

mastercardvisa.jpgConsumer borrowing unexpectedly surges in March (AP)
Some interesting info on the consumer front, as Americans dipped aggressively into their credit card borrowing lines in March -- at a faster rate than expected. It's a double-edged sword though. On the one hand, sure, it's a little troubling that shoppers had to put so much on high-rate plastic. But spending is spending. Better they keep shopping and run into a wall of debt than neither.


Papa John's surpasses $1 billion in online pizza sales (AP)
Why anyone would pay hard money for online pizza is beyond us. But you know kids these days: with their Facebook and its juvenile practice of gifting nonsensical items. Still, so much money in it. And Papa John's of all companies. Again, quite surprising, but if the model works, that's great.

Wave of Lawsuits Over Losses Could Hit a Wall (NYT)
This story probably hasn't gotten enough press: what will the lawsuit situation look like when this credit collapse is all over. We're still sorting out dotcom related law suits (or if we're not still dealing with them, that's a recent change), and those losses were sort of peanuts to some of the hits investors are taking here. Granted it's different -- there weren't many retail investors in risky SIVs, etc. But still, where there's a loss there's a suit.

Best Buy to Invest in U.K. Retailer (WSJ)
Best Buy and Europe's (quaintly named) Carphone Warehouse have announced a JV, whereby Carphone Warehouse will fold its stores in with Best Buys in exchange for a cash payment. The two chains will operate as one company on the continent, although the smaller footprint shops will still be branded Carphone Warehouse, while large, big-box Best Buys will still be Best Buys. We're always a little skeptical of these retail situations with multiple names and store footprints, but maybe they won't integrate them too deeply. And maybe it's time to change the name away from Carphone Warehouse. Just a thought.

Toyota's Net Income Falls 28% (WSJ)
They continue to get tripped up: A combination of a strong Yen and a rough market in the US pushed Toyota's net income down by 28 percent. Sales were up, however, a modest 3.8 percent, so the problems can't totally be pinned to seemingly top-line factors. For the coming year, Toyota says its profits will come in below expected. Toyota shares currently trade around $104, down from a high of around $140 last year.

The Dreaded R-Word (American)
Six economists around a table debating whether we're in a recession or not. This ain't a science folks, that's for sure. See also this, on CEA Chairman Edward Lazear not seeing a recession. And, while you're at it, see this from Barry, on how recessions often start off with an uptick in GDP.

ExpressJet: Probably Toast (Felix Salmon)
Another airline possibly on the brink. This one's a unique case though, cause it's getting hit from multiple angles. There's oil, but duh. There's also the auction-rate market, totally harshing the ExpressJet's liquidity mellow. And then there's a credit card holdback being imposed, whereby its credit card payment processor is only paying it 50 percent of transactions amid doubts about the company's viability. Who knew the Airline business was a trust-based business model. It is. As noted though, it still trades at $3 per share.

Oil Just Out-Bubbled the Tech Bubble (Infectious Greed)
You always gotta be a little bit careful with these charts overlaying past patterns on top of one another, but still, this one is very interesting. It's form these guys originally, and it puts a chart of the oil rise against a chart of the tech and home builder booms. Certainly a lot to chew on there.

Comments

1

Posted by guest , May 08, 2008 9:21AM

Don't forget to mention the "yen carry".......Note to readers: Is that "yen carry" phrase still the biz-speak word du jour? Or is there a new one?

2

Posted by guest , May 08, 2008 9:24AM

On the consumer spending, wouldn't that be Joe and Joy Sixpack buying stuff on the credit card and paying for it later with their tax "give back" check which will be mailed to him soon?

3

Posted by guest , May 08, 2008 9:28AM

more likely, the increase in the cost of gas and groceries is translating to higher balances.

4

Posted by mrpink , May 08, 2008 9:35AM

So *now* we know where JCay's 900 million REALLY went... He was hotboxing on the 4th floor at 383 and kept clicking BUY on papa john's website... thus why they passed 1B in online sales.... Hmmmmmmm =)

-mrp

5

Posted by guest , May 08, 2008 9:36AM

"Better they keep spending and run into a wall of debt than neither."

Wait, what? Is this the Wimpy school of economics? ("I would gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.")

6

Posted by guest , May 08, 2008 9:45AM

"But still, where there's a loss there's a suit."

Priceless! Mr. Weisenthal, you've earned my respect.

~m

7

Posted by guest , May 08, 2008 10:17AM

The reason people are adding to their credit cards is that other sources of credit have dried up. They therefore have to pay higher rates. This is not because consumers are going to save the economy....far from it.

8

Posted by Anal_yst , May 08, 2008 10:51AM

As I've pointed out, short retail, short the consumer. The Government's indirect subsidy of retailers is at best, a bandaid over a gaping wound.

As Frankie said, 'the best is yet to come...'

9

Posted by guest , May 08, 2008 12:07PM

Kudlow has deemed you all communists for speaking ill of the american consumer and the economy.

All is well. Have a coke and a smile. Execute a couple of trades while you are at it.

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