Opening Bell: 5.13.08

Posted by Joe Weisenthal, May 13, 2008, 7:20am

walmartalways.jpgWal-Mart Reports Record First Quarter Sales and Earnings Hey! Look at that. People still buy stuff. Even those who aren't in the Whole Foods Prius set. Wal-Mart reported a record first quarter and said sales were up 10 percent year-over-year. And it'd been awhile since we'd closely watched WMT's share price, but there it is, knocking on its 52-week high. Perhaps the pool of those who would deign to step into a Wal-Mart has been growing, though we're loathe to call anything defensive, or anti-recessionary.


Losses at XM and Sirius as They Pursue a Merger (Reuters)
XM and Sirius really need to stop competing with each other. Approval from the FCC and a subsequent merger wouldn't eliminate competition -- after all there's regular radio, HD, radio and iPods. But they're still killing each other on the off chance that they may not be allowed to get married. Both continued the tradition of heavy losses yesterday, although Sirius is obviously the strong one, having posted much higher growth and lower costs. But again, still not even close to profitability.

Société Générale’s First-Quarter Profit Drops 23.4% (NYT)
It's been rough at Soc-Gen but it could be worse. At least analysts had been looking for something a bit worse than what the battered bank reported. At least they made a profit, for one thing, which can't be said for all of its peers. And at this point, the Kerveil thing seems to be ancient history. Good for them. Too bad for us.

Are Polar Bears Really an Endangered Species? (American)
Apparently it's not a trivial question. President Bush has to decide by Friday whether or not to put them on 'the list', and if he does then it could prompt all kinds of debate about whether global warming is leading to their extension (like if a glacier melts do they fall into the ocean?) and then that leads to some energy policy issues. Somehow we can't imagine it'll really be that big of a deal either way. No doubt there are plenty of school children whose teachers have made them write letters to Bush urging him to put polar bears on the endangered species list. But doubtful that his decision will have much of an effect on the course of history.

Retailers dropping like flies (Oligopoly Watch)
Wal-Mart might be doing okay, but here's some counterpoint. This has been a bad year for several retail chains, which have been joining the ranks of the bankrupt that might make the airlines blush. Ok, not that bad, but still. Some ones to have declared: The Sharper Image, Fortunoff, Bombay and Company, Wickes Furniture, Lilian Vernon and Linens 'n' Things. And then there are several others teetering on the brink. One issue according to Oligopoly Watch: "As has often been pointed out, there is an obscene excess of retail space in the US, and while Americans like to shop till they drop, they are now dropping." Another reason: "Do and did anyone ever buy anything from The Bombay Company? Just asking." Right on.

Lowest NYSE Volume of the Year (Big Picture)
Killjoy Barry Ritholtz points out how weak volume has been on this latest rallying, arguing it's a sure sign of a bear market. Some other bears agree and are getting ready to reload up on shorts (like, oh sure, they haven't been short during this whole runup).

Guess What Stock Market Is at a New High? (CrossingWallStreet)
Yep, it's our neighbors to the great white north. Toronto, the nexus of energy, intelligence, a strong Loonie and tech. But there's more to the rally than just Americans trading in their dollars to Canadian ones in order to prospect for oil in Alberta. There's also that thing called the Blackberry, which is showing no signs whatsoever of getting dislodged. It's the country's largest company by market cap, and is becoming like Nokia to Finland, or Skype to Estonia.

Does the high oil price reflect a bubble? (Marginal Revolution)
Lots of debate on this question, duh, cause oil is damned expensive. Krugman says no. Cowen... eh, to be honest, we're not sure where he stands, but he's thought provoking nonetheless. Our friend Paul Kedrosky will be on CNBC during the 8 o'clock hour debating this question, and he'll certainly have something interesting to say on it. Our view: no bubble, doesn't mean it can't come down sharply. Hope that's not too middling for you.

Jindalmania (Megan McArdle)
Sorry, it's political. But Megan usually writes with an econ slant, so it's okay to link to her. Anyway, she liked what she heard from LA gov Bobby Jindal, and from what little we've heard of the guy, he sounds cool to us.

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Comments

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 8:45AM

Bombay was hard to figure. They paid themselves like they had a "royal" business and hardly ever advertised. Thus, Ka-Boom.

I followed Bombay through many changes at the C level and I cam to the conclusion they kne how to talk the talk but....well....you know the rest.

Posted by girl, May 13, 2008 9:31AM

That Tracy Lander is a looker @ big r, well done.

Also, short Klondike. Those polar bears are fucked 10 ways from Wednesday.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 9:34AM

that's pretty mean girl. At least we know what she looks like. Odds are that you could be even worse.

Posted by Anal_yst, May 13, 2008 9:49AM

9:34, for what its worth, girl is quite the looker

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 10:04AM

Anal_yst? you saw girl? In person not in cybersex dungeon? What'd she look like. Pictures? Details?

Posted by girl, May 13, 2008 10:08AM

damnit Anal_yst I was going to make 9:34 put money on his "odds" first. Serves him right for sprouting a conscience. when are drinks round II?

Posted by Bugs Meany, May 13, 2008 10:13AM

What are the odds that Bobby Jindal, an Indian who won in the Deep South, gets the sort of fame that Obama did in 2004? Very little, since minority politicians only warrant attention and praise when they run on racial guilt or identity politics, not principles. Your average liberal has no use for non-white pols who don't sign on to the multi-culti PC agenda.

Posted by big r, May 13, 2008 10:15AM

anal_yst & girl had a rendezvous at mcfaddens one thursday night. i only know this bc i was also there w some friends asking complete strangers if they knew ron blarney.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 10:18AM

did he get a hj at the bar?

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 10:22AM

Bugs Meany: Obama's not running on racial guilt or identity politics, dipshit, he's trying to get as far away as possible from that game. Maybe if you'd paid attention to the campaign for more than about 10 minutes, or watched anything other than Fox News, you'd realize that. Now go back to masturbating to the National Review and stop spewing your idiocy here.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 10:22AM

wait what define rendezvous? is girl like the town bike now?

Posted by girl, May 13, 2008 10:25AM

@ 10:18 keep cracking those SAT books and get off DB before mom catches you

Posted by ab, May 13, 2008 10:26AM

@bugs

no problem with you criticizing obama, and jindal does deserve more praise than he gets. but where are you seeing obama playing up identity politics and racial guilt? i think it's pretty clear that he's tried to stay away from that (and done a fairly good job) throughout the campaign.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 10:28AM

@10.25--I'll take that as a 'yes'!!

Go anal_yst!!

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 10:30AM

@ girl:

You didn't even give him an handy J? Jesus, analyst really has got the worst Jersey-game since Paulie Wallnuts

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 10:32AM

To be fair to Bugs Meany, all negroes look the same to him, so he's probably confusing Obama with Sharpton or Jackson.

Posted by girl, May 13, 2008 10:33AM

for fucks sake it was a happy hour that i dropped by for with a coworker. I call a 5 min break so you dispshits can go jackoff and stop bothering me

Posted by Anal_yst, May 13, 2008 10:34AM

This is funny, I'd feed the fire but I don't wanna subject girl to the colourful commentary from the peanut gallery

oh, and @ 10:30

My game is tight, son.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 10:46AM

It took a freakin natural disaster for Jindal to get elected in Louisiana. Though obviously the guy is a stud, at least on paper. However, that medicare prescription plan he came up with was complete shit. We'll see if his McKinsey & Co skills of drawing boxes and arrows will translate into any actual improvement in post-katrina New Orleans. Still compared to Obama Jindal is a senior statesman (though this may reflect a difference in priorities)


@girl:

Wait, what, but you know who analyst is in real life and he knows you and you've broken the fourth wall and now your cyber life is one with your real life?

Also how did you know about the jacking off? Analyst has been, spilling state secrets now too?

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 10:54AM

re Obama's identity politics: are you serious? Its entirely that and no more. No interesting positions, no command of the issues, no substance. The identity thing though is done in a subversive way so that raising it causes one to be branded a racist. Just perfect. But winning black votes in red states plus a few latte sippers here and there is not gonna get the guy elected.

Posted by girl, May 13, 2008 10:58AM

haha @ 10:46, my cyber life was always one with my real life. I have nothing to hide and know a few people on this board rather well.

Also, its not difficult to deduce that the majority of commenter agression derives from being reduced to jacking off in the handicap stall...chalk it up to female intuition.

Posted by big r, May 13, 2008 11:01AM

back to the original issue at hand, when is round II?

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 11:03AM

I don't think that's identity politics man. Do you remember what bush was like 2000? Obama is a veritable policy wonk compared to Bush 2000. His like a definable positions is clearly a strategy to not alienate specific groups by sticking to theme of "hope and change". The same way Bush didn't say "I'm a christian nut who thinks god chose me to be President" when he ran, he just said "Jesus touched my heart" and those were code words to the other christian nuts.

Well Obama's message of "hope and change" are code words to us liberals, we know what he means but can't say. He means loading up the supreme court with other liberals and wresting control of the government from the backward trogaladitic elements of society, but he can't say that. So he just says "change".

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 11:04AM

girl: re cyber being one with real life. We've never got even the slightest inkling of what kind of work you do. Tell us why you've been so tight with that one.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 11:08AM

@10:54 - it is not possible that you have been paying attention to this race. If you had, you would understand that Obama is the only candidate to have any serious desire to turn around US foreign policy from its disastrous overextension of recent years. That alone is reason enough to vote for him, in my opinion.

Dismissing him and his voters in the way that you do is extremely condescending, and I wouldn't be surprised if some saw a racist subtext in your refusal to take him seriously. But go ahead, keep doing that, the more that people under-estimate him now, the easier it will be for him to win in November, and the sweeter the taste of your salty tears.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 11:09AM

@11:03 But here's my problem. Is Hillary gonna load the supreme with any less liberal candidates? Yet she's a policy wonk extraordinaire so therefore a better choice. Why buy into O on the basis of the theme of hope and change? How's he gonna do it? He wasnt a uniter in the senate. His supporters seem to view him as a prophet that dropped down among us and we should show reverence.

I know, I know. Nothing new here, just venting. I just can't shake this idea that he's a big fraud. And if he didn't attract all those black votes would be nowhere.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 11:11AM

Take a look at the gas tax issue. If you think candidates (Hillary and McCain) who endorse the gas tax holiday have a serious grasp of the issue, you are utterly deluded/misinformed. At least by opposing this stupid bit of pandering, Obama has shown that he understands Econ 101 better than his opponents, which I think is a desirable trait in a President.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 11:12AM

@11:09 - do you generally have problems trusting black men, or dealing with the fact that we now count black votes as being equal to whit evotes?

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 11:14AM

@ girl:

OK good, analyst hasn't said too much. Anyone knows a handicap stall will not provide the needed privacy. You need to go your firms "meeting floor" where you meet with clients in house. The bathrooms on that floor will be like Superman's fortress of solitude, cause the last thing IBD management wants is for someone to pop in for a quick hand washing and catch an eye (read camera phone) full of (through slats in the stall) the CEO of Proctor & Gamble dropping a duce.

So you see if you're going shake hands with herman the one eyed german. you do so in the privacy of a "meeting floor" bathroom

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 11:15AM

@11:09 - Hillary's gas tax holiday proposal and her promise to obliterate Iran sounds more like the work of a panderer and a substance-free hack than a "policy wonk"

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 11:15AM

@11:08 I've been paying lots of attention and totally disagree with your observation re his ability to turn around foreign policy. His positions are pure idealism, based on a flawed view of how the world works. Which is understandable, cause he's lacking in experience and those positions are basically forged from experts culled form academia. See the papers posted on his web site. About him winning: given the electoral math, it simply comes down to taking two of three out of PA, OH, FL and theres no way.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 11:16AM

herman the one eyed german... he must be a cousin of sammy the one eyed trouser snake

Posted by girl, May 13, 2008 11:17AM

@ big r- soon! somewhere downtown.

@ 11:04 In the interest of full disclosure, i'm a stripper.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 11:20AM

@11:15 - I would put him as an odds-on favorite to win PA, and a loss of both OH and FL (unlikely, imho) would be compensated for by his ability to win in the Mountain West (CO, NM, NV) and the South (VA, NC, MO, possibly even putting SC or GA into play).

We know he has the ability to compete in a broader swathe of states than Hillary, who would be pretty much dead anywhere outside of traditional Dem strongholds (she wouldn't bring any new states into the fold). He'll force McCain to fight in more states, and his ability to raise vastly more money than McCain means a possible electoral disaster for the Repubs in the fall.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 11:22AM

@11:15 am. Politics is pandering. You're forgetting one detail about the Hillary gas tax: that she, unlike McCain, tied it to an excess profits tax. You and I know better and didn't buy in, but it had potential for being a brilliant move for the masses: lower the cost of gas and have the big bad oil companies pay. That's pander plus policy wonk. Compare that with Obama's sputtering over cap gains rates. That's a relatively simple issue. What's gonna happen when the big issues come up.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 11:27AM

girl @11:17 Oh, so you're one of those people deep in the basement of 85 Broad or some similar place that actually cuts up Treasury certificates, creating zeros? I always wondered who did that. How do you get a job like that?

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 11:29AM

Well OK but that's a little silly. First of all of course he's a fraud, he's a politician. He's just employing a different tactic than Hillary. One is not better than the other per se. I don't think Obama does have some principals that he would be unwilling to compromise I don't think the same can be said for Hillary. Personally I view principals as a weakness I'd prefer some who just goes for the jugular but his strategy seems to be working for him so more power to him.

Also 11:09 if all those white people didn't vote for McCain then he'd be no where. Let me tell you a little secret no matter who the candidate, if they are viable and black, then all of the black people are going to vote him or her. But black people don't explain Obama winning iowa, and kansas and idaho and all the great plains states.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 11:30AM

for obama's chances, check here market wizards:

www.intrade.com

audacious.

-ex-retail-slinger-guy

Posted by mrpink, May 13, 2008 11:32AM

I may make an appearance at the latest DB drink fest. Pockets full of flasks! j/k

-mrp

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 11:34AM

@11:29 Newsflash: even if they were not viable and black the black voters would vote for them. See Jackson in NC, Sharpton in NY. Am I racist for pointing this out?

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 11:37AM

Wow Obama is way expensive on intrade. The day a black man in America is better than a 50-50 shop is the day I eat my hat. Obama could lose every single swing state, due to, you know, people being racist.

Long McCain.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 11:38AM

u b racisttt even when eatin' fry chickennn, whitey boy

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 11:38AM

@11:34 - Sharpton won nearly none of the primary votes when he ran for Prez in 2004, and Obama was trailing Hillary by about 30-40 points last year among black voters.

To dismiss 90+% black support as simply racial identification is stupid.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 11:41AM

@11:08 You bet I refuse to take him seriously. Please tell me where he has demonstrated this substance that you see. Certainly not in the debates.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 11:41AM

@11:37 - you better be backing up that long-McCain/short-Obama recommendation with your own money. Personally, I think 55 is a fair price, so I'm not making a trade at this point, but the Obama-Dem-Nom contract at 90 seems underpriced.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 11:44AM

@11:38 You are so naive. What portion of that 90% do you think know anything about Obama other than the fact that he's black? Oops, there I go again being a racist.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 11:44AM

Uh Shaprton is from New York so obviously he can expect to do better there, Jackson won Michigan and several other states and at least was theoretically viable until making his "Hemi town" comments. Black people make up 20+% of the vote in the democratic party Sharpton's pathetic showing in the primaries are indicative of black people considering his candidacy as much of a joke as everyone else did.

Posted by girl, May 13, 2008 11:46AM

@ 11:14 sorry i missed that- HYSTERICAL

@ 11:27 I don't make money, i print it. Recinnize.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 11:50AM

11:44

That's not racist. You're right. well they know two things, that Obama is black and a viable candidate. The only reason black people are voting overwhelmingly for him now is because he won the incredibly white state of Iowa. Had hillary won Iowa and New Hampshire black people wouldn't have voted for him just because he's black. But anyway. What's the deal with all these white people voting for other white people to be president all the time? And how come all the president have been men? And on top of that mostly rich men? You'd think this was a racist and disequitable country or something?... oh wait.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 11:50AM

@11:14 here. Glad you got it girl. I was doubtful it would fly, cause the reference is a bit obscure: its been like 50 years since treasuries had to be physically "stripped" in order to turn them into zeros.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 11:53AM

re iowa. That was a caucus, with the attendent obscure rules. I wouldn't put a lot of stock in the outcome, other than to conclude that Obama's people there had superior organizational skills. I would hate to think that that changed the entire race.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 12:00PM

isnt someone going to point out to 11:44 that its "Hymie" not "Hemi" town? Obviously not an MOT. Could be a NASCAR dad though. Didn't Chrysler have a Hemi engine in the 60s?

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 12:02PM

Nah, it had nothing to do with organizational skills and everything to do with Obama being a good campaigner and the fact that he's from neighboring Illinois. He perfected his country farmer shtick campaigning is southern Illinois in 2004 and Iowa gave him plenty of time to ham it up.

Obama winning the Wyoming caucus was probably due to superior organization though.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 12:04PM

Chrysler has a Hemi engine right now. But yeah, i don't know how to spell.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 12:07PM

I just did the electoral vote math, and Obama can win this thing even if he loses OH, PA, and FL, if he wins one state in the south and one in the west - preferably CO and VA - assuming all the traditional Dem strongholds vote for him and NH doesn't decide to do its maverick act again - but it will be a squeaker.

PA will be the most decisive state by far.

Oh, and Obama won the majority of white people's votes in lily-white states like Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Virginia. Suck it.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 12:11PM

The white D's in Wisconsin and VA are latte sippers (think Madison). Don't know NB, but assume they're just stupid.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 12:16PM

@12:11 - he has won an absolute majority of younger (under-30) white people's votes across the country, in addition to winning more white votes than Hillary in Oregon, Washington, Vermont, Connecticut, Illinois, Utah, Nevada, and we could keep going on and on.

Pretty soon, you're going to have to dismiss more than half the country as "latte sippers". Who knew latte had become our national beverage?

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 12:19PM

Obviously, the Hillary camp would prefer if only poor white trash in West Virginia were eligible to vote for President, because then she'd win in a landslide.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 12:20PM

Virginia isn't a lilly white state. And Wisconsin has Milwake of course.

Obama should also be in the running Louisiana and there's a chance to put Mississippi, which is 40% black, in play. Also Obama has a very good show in Missouri and Iowa. Obama should definitely win Missouri if he doesn't then I doubt he can win the election. (Missouri is next to Illinois and has demographics which almost perfectly mirror the nation)

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 12:23PM

We're not disagreeing here. Latte is shorthand for what you are observing. O is capturing the fancy of the young, the black and the effete. Hilary the white working class. The contest is essentially split down the middle. Big problem for the D's. Where we disagree is on O's qualifications and ability to win in November. But I have nothing more of substance or nothing that hasn't been said before to add. So I'm gonna move on. Best to you.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 12:25PM

@12:11:

White D's in Wisconsin are also steel workers, trades men, auto workers, ect. You really have no idea what you're talking about do you?

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 12:27PM

Does a white working class even exist in this country? I thought we had sent all their jobs to China by now, or hired cheap illegal immigrants in their place.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 12:27PM

And, seriously, does anyone expect that working-class whites in Michigan will prefer McCain to Obama? I think not.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 12:31PM

@12:25 Of course they are. And those are the ones that voted for H. They were outnumbered though by the students in Madison and the blacks in Milwaukee.

@12:27 Are you joking? Of course they will. A war hero? And that's even before they drag out the Wright tapes. You need to see more of America. Its not all NY.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 12:35PM

And you need to see more of America, as well. There's much more to it than rural Appalachia, which contains only about 10% of our population (I suppose everyone else, in the remaining 90%, is a latte sipper, right?)

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 12:37PM

Rural Appalachia is where IBs go when they're fired to find work more suitable to their skills.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 12:39PM

The Wright tapes have been dragged and broadcast nearly non-stop on every major media channel. There is no additional political hay to be made from Wright.

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 12:41PM

Eh, Obama will win Michigan, Detroit is lousy with Negroes, its a waste of McCain's time and lord knows he's got precious little of it left on this sweet earth. McCain is probably fucked. He will probably win most of the swing states, probably even PA. But Obama should win VA, Louisiana, Iowa, Missouri and threaten in Georgia and Missippi, tying up precious McCain campaign dollars to defend those states. McCain's best bet would be to strike out for democratic territory and try to peal off Wisco and Oregon (eastern oregon, is pretty much idaho an super conservative) to put Obama on the defensive.

One thing is for sure, it sure will be a different from the last two go rounds. Florida and Ohio will be pretty much irrelevant.

Posted by big r, May 13, 2008 1:36PM

@ girl. hpw far downtown is downtown to you?

Posted by guest, May 13, 2008 1:54PM

I feel like I just landed in the middle of an Obama fest. I had no idea the conclusion was as foregone as you all seem to think it is and am very surprised at the focus on soft issues rather than voicing of any policy concerns. Have to tell you, the people I usually hang with have a totally different view of the world. Maybe the audience here is not as analytic and more idealistic than one would imagine.

Posted by Suits, May 13, 2008 5:28PM

Did did someone seriously spell "Milwaukee" as "Milwake" and abbreviate Nebraska "NB"? Hope these aren't the same people accusing Obama of being light on foreign policy.

Posted by Bugs Meany, May 14, 2008 9:13AM

Oops, forgot to come back to this thread yesterday.

"Bugs Meany: Obama's not running on racial guilt or identity politics, dipshit, he's trying to get as far away as possible from that game. Maybe if you'd paid attention to the campaign for more than about 10 minutes, or watched anything other than Fox News, you'd realize that."

Simple contrast: Colin Powell. You think he has any time for race-hucksters like Rev. Wright? That's what "post-racial" means.

Obama has always had one foot in the academic world, where EVERYTHING is somehow all about race/gender/class/whatever. Likewise, his supporters can't imagine that there could possibly be any reason to oppose the Obamessiah other than race. So, all of a sudden Geraldine Ferraro is "David Duke in drag."

Posted by guest, May 14, 2008 9:27AM

Well said Bugs. Ask Obama's supporters why they like him and they say "he inspires me", "he's a uniter". Is that all it takes? I've seen no evidence that he had an understanding of important policy issues, plus the uniter argument gets blown to bits when you look at his senate record. Add in the fact that the association with Wright blows the argument that hes post-racial out of the water and all you have left is a well spoken guy. Which in itself would not be extraordinary except for the fact that he's black.

Posted by guest, May 14, 2008 10:17AM

@5:28 PM I confess. I'm the guilty one re the NB abbreviation for Nebraska. I guess that disqualifies me for a job in the mail room or at the post office. Jeez, you really are a nitpicker. I've heard of learning state capitals, but who memorizes the abbreviations. Alaska for example... I always get that one wrong too. Is it AS or AK? Let me know oh great abbreviator.

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