What If They Held A Recession And Nobody Showed Up?

Posted by John Carney, May 14, 2008, 9:14am

Wachovia now puts the odds of recession at 45%, down from 90% in April, according to the Wall Street Journal. Anti-recession mania scores a victory!
Recession? Not So Fast, Say Some [Wall Street Journal]

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Comments

Posted by guest, May 14, 2008 10:03AM

Perhaps,

On the other hand, where did these mortgages sit in their CDO's:

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN0952458820080511?pageNumber=3&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true

Hint: Note his skin colour and his wife's hair colour...

Posted by guest, May 14, 2008 10:06AM

no inflation either

Posted by guest, May 14, 2008 10:07AM

Forget the "recession" the real story is stagflation! Commodities prices are up, wages are down, asset values are down, debt borrowed against those assets remains unchanged. When you live pay check to pay check you can't afford this shit, people in this country are levered to hilt and priced for perfection. Now the whole house of cards is coming down.

Posted by Investorcluzo, May 14, 2008 10:15AM

this is just typical. the press, et al, talks everyone into a tizzy which ultimately becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. time after time they called for the prez to say the "r" word. yet he relented. and guess what, now the economists are recanting...not sure how you go from 90% to 45% in such a short period of time, but then again I'm no economist or editorial board so I don’t need to sell a newsletter or paper subscription.

Posted by guest, May 14, 2008 10:26AM

great title

Posted by diablo, May 14, 2008 10:32AM

Ask Wachovia whether housing has hit bottom already...

Posted by guest, May 14, 2008 10:33AM

If you'll only hire analysts with one hand, you won't have all that "on ther other hand..." crap to deal with.

Posted by guest, May 14, 2008 11:15AM

All your bases are belong to us now! Ahaha!

Posted by Anal_yst, May 14, 2008 11:57AM

Kinda hard to predict the liklihood of something you can't even define, no?

Posted by redpandot, May 14, 2008 12:08PM

@anal_yst - BINGO!

Posted by Anal_yst, May 14, 2008 12:52PM

@ redpandot

haha i love how everyone talks about it with such authority though!
Equity markets are so mispriced right now (to the high side), especially alot of consumer-dependent stocks, I bet Chanos is loving it.

Posted by counterclockwise, May 14, 2008 12:58PM

I think the problem is that the current economic problems we are experiencing don't easily fit into categories understood by the press or the public. Who can deny the economic pain caused by the burst in the bubble of real estate values or the ongoing banking and credit crisis?

However, these unusual events seem to dim in the neon light of the tiniest increase in the gross domestic product.

Rising gasoline prices, rising food prices, falling real estate values, stagnant wages, and the inability to obtain credit are going to have a very real effect on the consumer, who is probably indifferent to the GDP.

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