-Per usual, I'm late. Erin is being introduced. She sounds slightly intimidating, like if this thing were being held in an auditorium and I was walking in late while she was speaking I'd be scared. On the subway this morning, I saw a guy who looked like a cross between the Austrian crazy who had his daughter locked in a basement for like 24 years and Nick Nolte. I think I'm going to start living beyond my means and taking cabs every day. That or I'll afford it through a cost cutting initiative wherein I stop paying into my 401k, since I think (know) I actually lost money on that p.o.s. this year.
- Apparently the Q&A will be "more limited than usual." Dick Fuld will not be answering questions about his relationship with Angelina Jolie. So don't even ask.
-Erin C: "Want to caveat: the info I'm talking about is preliminary; still subject to refinement and change"
- Estimated netloss: $2.8 billion
- Book value slightly over $34/share
- It sort of just sounds like she's reading off the press release but I haven't read it so maybe not. Carnoi?
- Finally, the pink pot smoking elephant in the room is mentioned: BSC. I wonder if J. Cay is listening in on the call.
- Archstone
- The failure of Lehman's hedge funds was an "abberation."
- LEH employs a hedging strategy of "confidence." When I open my hedge fund, Human Capital (or Ransom Capital, where we raise money by kidnapping/blackmailing hf managers), I might use this.
- Compensation expenses totaled $2.3 billion, "including severance." Awkward.
- 1900 people, mostly in the US, have been given the summer off.
- No specifics on Level 3 assets. The call was earlier than expected, so we'll issue a pass. This time.
- This little capital raise, which you may have heard something about, is not because we are in trouble, it is to take advantage of future opportunities. It will be used to mitigate losses but it's really about moving forward. Moving forward, think about referring to me as Erin Callan, CEO.
- We are awash with liquidity. We are swimming in liquidity. My lungs are filling with liquidity.
- The "fall-out events of mid-March." Burn (it's funny on multiple levels).
- We will be delivering "intellectual capital" to our clients. Same utility, re: buying shit with it, as Monopoly money, but much smarter.
Questions:
- Bill Tanoma from Goldman:
"Safe to assume level three assets will be down?"
"No Bill, it's not safe to assume."
The tone of voice she just took with him was the equivalent of rolling up a newspaper and hitting him on the nose with it. I feel good about this.
- Second question: Guy Moszkowski. "Is it fair to assume of $130 billion in asset reduction, about $25 billion is in mortgage inventory?" Erin says $20 billion.
- Leverage finance assets will be an even bigger percentage but firm numbers not available till Monday.
- The vast majority of what was sold was in the form of whole loans, not securitized products which have better pricing visibility. Largely subprime and non-performing loans.
- 3rd question, missed the guy's name but he sounds nice, if timid. Erin says: "Losses for the quarter are truly write-downs rather than reflecting actual sales at less than balance sheet estimates." Guy (not Guy M., just "guy") just apologized for "asking so many questions."
- Erin wants to "end the chatter about Lehman Brothers." And "go fuck yourself, David Einhorn." Sorry, tickle in my throat.
- Someone asks "How do we know you've taken enough writedowns in your mortgage books?" Erin: "For two reasons. 1. The aggregate number is very large. That gives me confidence. 2. We sold lots of risk assets. Our price visibility was "tremendous." Know what that gives me? Starts with a 'c' ends with a 'onfidence'."
- Tells David Trone: We've put comparisons to Bear Stearns, regarding liquidity, whether or not we'll be here in a month, and my supposed bridge addiction, to bed."
- Someone at LEH has his volume turned way up because we all just heard him receive an IM. Who was it from???
(BigDaddyCaCayne: i'm sitting in my boxers right now eating five McGriddles.
DFuld8473: not now, jim
BigDaddyCaCayne: leave it to the chick, dude. That's how I rolled.
BigDaddyCaCayne: how long do you think it'll take the gnomes who live inside the computer to advance the internet so that you can pull someone's figure out there in cyber space?)
- E to the C says there is much more opportunity in fixed income trading than there has been in "some time." Equity trading has "demonstrated a great ability to make money."
- E to the C, who's apparently got a part-time gig as The Architect in The Matrix, ends call by saying: "We're looking forward to this next step in this paradigm." Should've gone with a. "We're looking forward to unwrapping the mystery within the maze within the enigma that is Lehman" or b. "We're looking forward to discovering the next land mine up in this bitch."







Posted by guest , Jun 09, 2008 10:13AM
are we live blogging the press release?
Posted by guest , Jun 09, 2008 10:18AM
So does this Jersey thing qualify as a bridge and tunnel loan?
Posted by guest , Jun 09, 2008 10:19AM
was the plunge protection team ordered to come into the markets at 10am when the call started?
Posted by guest , Jun 09, 2008 10:21AM
larger market share of a smaller market? is that zero sum?
Posted by guest , Jun 09, 2008 10:31AM
sleeper hit of the call will be the decline in ECM business. this is one to watch.
s75
Posted by guest , Jun 09, 2008 10:32AM
yes 10:19 it was either the PPT, or maybe the huge unexpected spike in pending home sales. whatevs.
Posted by Investorcluzo , Jun 09, 2008 10:39AM
did you notice the significant hedging in erin's statement? "some of my answeres may change...numbers are preliminary". I guess she learned from einhorn's rant on cnbc about her flip flop from the last call.
Posted by guest , Jun 09, 2008 10:43AM
That was one of the longer pre=call disclosures I have heard lately
Posted by guest , Jun 09, 2008 10:44AM
Carney dude, you do not have any of the natural snark / sarcarm that Bess Levin owns. So why dont you just leave that to her and stick to more serious stuff. Provide insights, your attempts at the other stuff are really really lame.
Posted by guest , Jun 09, 2008 10:46AM
moZkowski .. but close! he wouldn't mind, he's a nice guy.
Posted by Investorcluzo , Jun 09, 2008 10:49AM
good news!!!! if you're still have a desk at leh in december, you will be paid "competitively"! let's just hope she's not competing with nat city or wells fargo...
Posted by guest , Jun 09, 2008 10:55AM
i dont think it would be fair to compare to nat city with its mou, but if you are in the mortgage business like almost everyone at lehman then yeah wells is totally a legit comp :)
Posted by guest , Jun 09, 2008 11:00AM
turns out, its moSZkowski. SZ. madness!
Posted by guest , Jun 09, 2008 11:22AM
damn she is horrible
Posted by Anal_yst , Jun 09, 2008 11:22AM
Not that anyone gives a rat's ass, but it seems Apple stores (online that is) are down across the globe...
Posted by onetwo , Jun 09, 2008 11:28AM
- E to the C says there is much more opportunity in fixed income trading than there has been in "some time." Equity trading has "demonstrated a great ability to make money."
Hey now, the reason equity trading is more profitably is because of the volatility. In short, the more volatile an asset class, the more likely there are dislocations from true value. The more likely the dislocations, the more opportunities to make money. The greater opportunities have proven to be a windfall for those few adept traders able to trade effectively.
But FI trading isn't very profitable (as a prop business) because the volatility is slow low. The only thing that's changed to allow for "opportunities" is the asset class's increased volatility. And, well, we saw how well they traded it so far.
I'm with Einhorn.
Posted by guest , Jun 09, 2008 11:32AM
No you're not. You are down on all FI trading businesses, you are not harping on Lehman's CDO marks.
Posted by Anal_yst , Jun 09, 2008 11:46AM
btw anyone see the rankings of b/d analysts, the moz, mayo, etc's picks, all were pretty much severely negative this year. Not a surprise, hopefully i can find the article its really funny
Posted by Anal_yst , Jun 09, 2008 11:47AM
whoops, here it is:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=a9vT3LqBYnGY&refer=home
Posted by golden girl , Jun 09, 2008 11:51AM
About 20 seconds after the LEH conference call we get this over the SS1:
NOT IMPRESSED WITH LEHMANS CALL WE WILL SELL 500
heh.
Posted by guest , Jun 09, 2008 11:51AM
I think they wrote almost the exact same article last year, just different financial stocks.
Posted by guest , Jun 09, 2008 11:53AM
"``One would expect that if there was any industry Wall Street estimates would be more precise on, it would be their own,'' said Richard Weiss, who oversees $60 billion as chief investment officer at City National Bank in Beverly Hills, California." and whose own stock is down over 50% from last year because its a freaking CALIFORNIA BANK!
Posted by guest , Jun 09, 2008 11:57AM
@gg it took your analyst a full hour to decide he is "not impressed" with LEH?
Posted by Investorcluzo , Jun 09, 2008 12:03PM
there is a reason that analysts are notoriously wrong with estimates of other wall street firms (although, typically right directionally): management is loathe to give out the "secret sauce" to competitors or show weakness...discuss.
Posted by guest , Jun 09, 2008 12:11PM
Did she mention what she is wearing at all?
Posted by guest , Jun 09, 2008 12:12PM
Human Capital..... "Human Capital Management", aka "HCM" is what GS calls HR. For realz..... Always made me feel like livestock.....
Posted by Anal_yst , Jun 09, 2008 12:14PM
I'm retarded, does Ladenberg own Punk, or did Bove jump ship recently? Also, amongst this debacle, he's (one of) the only one(s) that doesn't look like a complete jackass, yet all 'people' are talking about is that cougar (by GFD's definition, at least, not mine) Whitney
Posted by guest , Jun 09, 2008 12:18PM
Nah if she were 30 years older she would be a cougar in delaware, currently she is still categorized as "barely legal" for those guys
Posted by golden girl , Jun 09, 2008 12:25PM
Investor, please don't say Secret Sauce, it's giving me flashbacks to my abomination of a performance on my test Saturday.
Damn you Schweser! (shaking fist at sky)
Posted by guest , Jun 09, 2008 12:25PM
Meredith Whitney no longer at CIBC?
Posted by guest , Jun 09, 2008 12:25PM
The Borg refer to us as "humans".
Jean-Luc Picard
Posted by dubs , Jun 09, 2008 12:41PM
Opco bought CIBC's US Operations, Whitney is now officially OPCO. She didn't move anywhere though.
Posted by guest , Jun 09, 2008 12:43PM
at least most of them will not spend 1+ hours waiting in the shake shack line to return some burgers to the desk
Posted by guest , Jun 09, 2008 12:49PM
GG your desks lehman trade will close in the red today
Posted by guest , Jun 09, 2008 2:18PM
@Anal_yst. Ladenberg bought Punk. Like Meredith, Dick didn't move anywhere.
Posted by guest , Jun 09, 2008 2:35PM
i dont understand how buying $4bil worth of stock last week at ~$28 per and then turning around the next week and offering those same share at $28 per does anything for the firm...i dont get it at all, what part of this builds confidence?
Posted by Anal_yst , Jun 09, 2008 2:40PM
@ 2:18 - gracias, was lookin around the ladenberg site on my bb the other day but was too lazy to look into it, oops
Posted by guest , Jun 09, 2008 5:21PM
AUSTRIAN, not AUSSI (which, btw would be written with an E at the end...), you ignorant.
Posted by NSD , Jun 09, 2008 6:47PM
@2:35 - last week it prevented a Bear like run on the bank. This week it does the same. Consider the associated fees the vig it costs to keep your firm afloat.
Its not about building confidence now, its about preventing a total loss of confidence.