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Emboldened by Merrill's courting of public embarrassment, Citi is likely to post third-quarter write-downs of about $8 billion from its exposure to collateralized debt obligations, according to Deutsche Bank analyst Mike Mayo.
Analyst sees $8 billion Citi writeoff after Merrill move [Reuters]
Posted by guest, Jul 29, 2008 10:53AM
DB analysts Mike Mayo and Adam Siemenski need to chill out with their faulty prognostications. Seriously, stop estimating bank writedowns and WTI price, respectively. Over (at least) the past year, you've got it all wrong. Can't remember a time you guys were even in the ballpark.
Posted by guest, Jul 29, 2008 11:13AM
you guys rail on this gasparino guy, but he speaks the truth.
even if it's with a funny accent.
Posted by guest, Jul 29, 2008 11:15AM
why the fuck are these criminals like thain and the indian from citigroup allowed to openly lie to the press and suffer no consequences?
oh yeah, they have "immunity".
Posted by guest, Jul 29, 2008 11:15AM
See even Bess is writing about Mayo. So all you cry babies that want the mayo comments banned, STFU!
Posted by guest, Jul 29, 2008 11:21AM
BL is with these mayo people, but she is not one of these mayo people.
Posted by guest, Jul 29, 2008 11:22AM
Guest7, are you suggesting that the SEC is complicit to the lies and deceit of Wall Street?
You are one wise guy/gal
Posted by guest, Jul 29, 2008 11:41AM
Stop for a moment and think what it is going to be like in the coming years working for one of the big firms that got its ass kicked over the past year. Citi, Merrill, Wachovia, etc are going to be just horrible places to work as they are afraid to take risk, watching costs and unwilling (or unable) to pay what it costs to hire decent talent.
The next 5 years or so are going to suck for a lot of people while smaller shops fill in the voids left by the big shops and, once some of the smaller shops builds a track record of being able to navigate the new structure of the industry, the big guys will buy out the small shop, instill management of the small shop to run the firm and the cycle will start over.
That essentially means its going to be 10 years until Merrill, Citi and the like are back in the game to any degree.
Posted by guest, Jul 29, 2008 11:53AM
I don't know who Messrs Glass et Steagall were. But they had wisdom that transcended time.
Guest@11, I don't know if the Wall Street analysts know what they are talking about. None of them have factored in what you mentioned. The diminished capital base, much reduced risk appetite, and talent migration to hedge funds and the like will definitely have a significant negative impact on the earnings of all banks and brokerages that depended heavily on trading or leverage.
Posted by guest, Jul 29, 2008 11:59AM
hi #10,
the SEC is a joke. they only go after the little guys anyway.
i'm talking justice.
the white house has given these guys immunity to straighten their shit out.
the bear stearns fiasco revealed all.
Posted by guest, Jul 29, 2008 12:00PM
#11 is correct.
the big house are scared money and damaged goods for at least 5 - 7 years.
Posted by guest, Jul 29, 2008 12:04PM
#14 -
i'd agree with your sentiment that "talent" will move to hedge funds but hedge funds are about to suffer some serious regulation.
add in an obama presidency and no more partnership distributions as "captial gains" rather than income and i hedge funds are pretty fucked.
they've operated in a vacuum. no more.
this much i guarantee.
Posted by FUNdamental, Jul 29, 2008 12:32PM
Joey mustard also noted corzine was planning to announce dramatic write downs of guido in NJ, due in large part to the honda civic market seizing up and belmar insulting SI.
Posted by guest, Jul 29, 2008 12:45PM
hi #18,
honda civics?
huh?
most guidos from staten island appear to drive s classes and above.
Posted by Anal_yst, Jul 29, 2008 12:55PM
...challenge. Dude very very few guidos drive hot rides like that, and they're often the ones whos parents have done well and spoil them rotten with zero oversight to make up for parenting deficiencies, but thats another story...
Posted by guest, Jul 29, 2008 1:00PM
Pull up a daily bar chart for the 8 years of the Clinton administration. The first two years, the market lazily moved slightly higher. It was the Wednesday after the 1994 election (when Newt and the Repubs took over the House and Senate) that started the rally that sent the Dow from 3600 over 10,000.
If Obama wins, we will see volatility in the market that reflects the jump in vol that occurred in Nov 1994. Add into that equation the silly season at the end of this year when companies pay people to stay or pay them to leave and we have an interesting scenario on Wall Street. Even if McCain wins in Nov, we are probably going to have one hell of an interesting time in the business.
Come next year, the new president is going to start executing plans that will have an effect on the balance sheets of a lot of companies. Balance sheets are going to have to be restructured, capital is going to need to find new opportunities.
The next four months in the business is going to suck because there isn't any reason for anyone to do anything until the election is settled. After that, its going to be an INSANE time to be in the business for anyone willing to take some career risks. Established firms are going to pay for shit so opportunity costs for career moves are going to be the lowest we will probably ever see, the economy is going through a number of changes, tax policy is going to be in play, and volatility is back into the markets.
Maybe Carney will set up a happy hour and invite some guys interested in providing seed capital as well as a couple of guys with the logistical know to set up some boutique firms. My guess is that there are a number of guys with niche investment ideas that only need to find one or two key people to become those types who print money, not make money.
Posted by blndebnker, Jul 29, 2008 2:22PM
I can concur with FUN and Analyst. Anyone who has even ridden past D'Jais has seen the string on window-tinted, pseudo-pimped out Civics in various stages of repair, lining the streets. The S Classes and Beamers are not quite as populous.
Posted by guest, Jul 29, 2008 2:32PM
Merrill needs to move their headquarters to Guatemala in order to survive.
Posted by Johnny, Jul 29, 2008 2:35PM
FUN, Analyst, Blnde.... correct!!
Guidos in Mercedes? They exist, but are FAAARRRRR outnumbered by pimped out Civics. It's not too late in the season to hit up the Neptunes parking lot and take a count....!!
Posted by blndebnker, Jul 29, 2008 2:43PM
D'Jais is the guido mecca in Belmar NJ. Go there for unlimited fist-pumping and sightings of bromance.
Posted by blndebnker, Jul 29, 2008 2:52PM
D'Jais is the guido mecca in Belmar NJ. Go there for unlimited fist-pumping and sightings of bromance.
Posted by guest, Jul 29, 2008 3:05PM
I've taken some hottie drunk blondes back home from D'Jais...I believe a couple of them were bankers.
Posted by blndebnker, Jul 29, 2008 3:18PM
#32 - Nice to hear my brethren is still hanging around there.
Posted by guest, Jul 29, 2008 3:44PM
JPM is structurally very, very long super senior. Let's see how Jamie ducks (covers up) this one...
Posted by guest, Jul 29, 2008 3:57PM
More guido stuff. It's the popular prep insult this year. Get over it, people, and let people live their lives in peace.
Posted by Anal_yst, Jul 29, 2008 4:08PM
Definitely correct, D'jais (to a lesser extent Bar A and Highliner I guess) are guido mecca. The pimp rides exist, but are more often import (or worse, crappy domestics) with exhausts and bad window tint.
"Normal" people are more apt to be seen in sea girt @ the Parker House or similar locales, at least down the Shore.
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Posted by guest, Jul 29, 2008 10:50AM
MAYO!