Ladenburg analyst Dick Bove released a report this weekend called "Who Is Next" (as in who is the next bank to FAIL) and it is definitely not a crib sheet for your next short ideas, he wink-winks. But...if it was...some names you should maybe think about shorting the everloving shit out of are:
Downey Financial Corp. (DSL), Corus Bankshares (CORS), Doral Financial Corporation (DRL), IndyMac (IMB), First Fed Financial (FED), Oriental Financial Group (OFG) and Bank United (BKUNA). And here are a bunch of banks supposedly "doing okay" that you could still probably make some money shorting, provided you're willing to put in a little elbow grease and can convince CNBC to start a panic: National City (NCC), Fifth Third (FITB), and Sun Trust (STI). And for the show-offs in the group-- Northern Trust (NTRS) and State Street (STT). They're seemingly sound as a pound but nothing whisper campaigns about "overly friendly" interactions between their CEOs and barn yard animals couldn't take down.
Bove Commentary [PDF]
Posted by guest , Jul 14, 2008 9:18AM
Well, I'm sure glad that Bove pointed out that IndyMac is a short - while I thought that the FDIC seizing the bank would be a major tip-off ...
Posted by a dead horse , Jul 14, 2008 9:23AM
I think it's too late to short IMB...
Posted by diablo , Jul 14, 2008 9:25AM
Just analyze the list of CD offerings at bankrate.com sorted by the highest rates to the lowest. Who needs Bove?
Posted by John Carney , Jul 14, 2008 9:40AM
Indymac!
Posted by CNote , Jul 14, 2008 9:53AM
Dick's a dick. He's late to the party on all of those - and the IndyMac one is just funny...
It looks like most of the names on there have already been kicked squah in the nuts over the past couple months.
Hey Dick, wanna give us a prediction on the Giants/Patriots game?
Posted by guest , Jul 14, 2008 9:55AM
Comeon DealBreaker, how about some investiagtive journalism on the truth or consequences of the below comment in the IndyMac thread?
"Less than 14 months ago Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley underwrote a $500 million preferred equity offering from Indy Mac.
Anyone know the legal ramifications to the brilliant due diligence from these self styled masters of the universe who shoveled shit to investors only to see it go to $0 in under 14 months?"
Is there any issue that these two brokers underwrote that deal?
Posted by guest , Jul 14, 2008 10:03AM
THANK YOU DICK
I didn't love you till now, but now I do!
I'm logging on E-Trade right now, so should everybody.
At least somebody should make a buck out of this credit mess... screw you pathetic poors who are losing their homes and or jobs and or families and or diginity --- I'm going all for short! YIPEEE
Posted by guest , Jul 14, 2008 10:03AM
So how does this work? everytime there is something bank related, Bove is on deck. It seems in the middle of the night he all of a sudden appears. he has not been right about anything all through this mess.
Posted by guest , Jul 14, 2008 10:11AM
@10:03
You're absolutely right. I'll answer your question how it works -- look at the charts of *any* of the stocks on the list, most of them are already down 90%+ over the last twelve months. This is just a list of momentum plays on the short, albeit some of them might be late having already declined 90%. You can look at charts of any financial stock that is down 80%+ and Bove will have put it on his list. He is no rocket-scientist, but I am
yours truly,
HEDGE_FUND_BALLER
Posted by Joseph di Jersey City , Jul 14, 2008 10:24AM
Is "postscient" a word? Just wondering.
Posted by guest , Jul 14, 2008 10:45AM
@9:55 - Probably not. It's because of the possibility of an IndyMac parade of horribles that banks get 10b-5 letters from their law firms with respect to the offering documents.
Posted by guest , Jul 14, 2008 10:51AM
"This grandstanding does nothing to create confidence in the American financial system" (from the PDF)
Right --- Because everyone looks to Chuck Schumer to feel confident in the banking system.
I don't care about Schumer as a Senator up or down, but people are giving him way more credit than he deserves in sinking IndyMac.
Posted by StMarc , Jul 14, 2008 10:58AM
10:45 has the right of it. Given the *calamitous* collapse of IndyMac, they can try to argue gross negligence, but absent a smoking gun the disclaimers we have to put in those letters would make the Adversary weep with envy. I just did the one for our annual VFS and the disclaimers were longer than the actual recitations of fact and opinion.
M
Posted by guest , Jul 14, 2008 11:55AM
So can we look forward to Bove doing the perp walk when the SEC investigates him for rumor-mongering the obvious?
Posted by guest , Jul 15, 2008 1:37PM
There's no news in Bove's report. The numbers are factual, not interpretive, which is good. His opinion of the banking industry over the last year has been all over the place, and any opinion other than "Borrow everything you can to short everyone" has been pretty unhelpful in retrospect. He basically tries to maintain "Everything's fine" as his dominant opinion while occasionally ripping someone to get on TV, then calling bottoms when other people take away his ripping spotlight. However, the numbers are all out of 1Q reports and so they're 3 months old and were already public information. What would be helpful would be some information about what's happened in the last 3 months, but we'll get that in 2Q reports. In the meantime you're safe muting the TV whenever Bove is on. He doesn't know anything that the rest of us don't know and there's no reason to have any faith in his analytical abilities, based on his record.
Posted by guest , Jul 22, 2008 2:11PM
Don't get sore, buy some more. - Dickie B.
Posted by guest , Jul 28, 2008 5:30PM
I like the DSL trade. You could make a buck 73 on this one...
Posted by guest , Feb 08, 2009 5:50PM
So, has Dick Bove done anymore updates on the banking industry? I loved his "Who's Next". It'd be great to see that same list, with updated info.
Posted by guest , Feb 26, 2009 3:46PM
Don't forget M&I
Those guys give out money to long-term clients
Posted by guest , Feb 26, 2009 8:11PM
Capital One Financial (COF). Glug, glug, glug.