UBS analyst Glenn Schorr laid out today what he thinks are Lehman's only options for survival. According to Glenn, LEH must (choose one): Offload a "sizable slug" of its risk assets to a distressed buyer, sell Neuberger Berman, sell the firm outright, go private, enter a strategic partnership with a "credible partner," or buy back its shares. Unfortunately, due to time constraints and room on the page, Schorr left out a few other ideas he has in mind for the firm, which we'll include now so that we (us and LEH) can make the most informed decision possible. Our vote is for choice B, but you decide what you think is best, let us know, and we'll forward the tally, plus notes, on to Dick:
a. Invite David Einhorn to join the board, handcuff him to his chair, and gloat that he is "now going down with this ship" (in this scenario, Fuld and his Eyebrow play the obvious villain, getting up into Einhorny's face, menacingly hovering and whispering, "You had to keep digging, didn't you, didn't you, you meddling little bastard.")
b. Short Lehman in the prime brokerage accounts of certain hedge funds, collect the winnings and then blame said evil short sellers for the inevitable fall to zero.
c. Keep your feet on the ground and reach for the stars and know in your heart that Lehman is going to make this thing work.*
d. Your Brilliant Plan.
Lehman Has Options, Albeit Costly Ones [UBS]
*Obviously a joke, so please just choose among A, B, and D.
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 1:53PM
The question is which mayo tastes better, Kraft or Hellmann's?
Posted by Anal_yst , Jul 23, 2008 1:54PM
thought this will help fuel the current mini/bs rally:
NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) July 23, 2008--Delinquencies among U.S. subprime
residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) transactions originally rated in
2005, 2006, and 2007 have continued to increase, according to a recent report
published by Standard & Poor's Ratings Services. As of the June 2008
distribution date, total delinquencies were 37.44%, 40.28%, and 29.28% of the
current aggregate pool balances for the 2005, 2006, and 2007 vintages,
respectively. This is an increase of approximately 1% for the 2005 vintage, 3%
for 2006, and 5% for 2007 when compared with the May 2008 distribution date.
Serious delinquencies (90-plus days, foreclosures, and real estate owned
{REO}) have also risen since the last distribution date. As of the most recent
reporting period, serious delinquencies for the 2005, 2006, and 2007 vintages
were approximately 27.50%, 29.48%, and 20.25% of the current aggregate pool
balances, respectively. When compared with the prior distribution date,
serious delinquencies have increased by approximately 1% for the 2005 vintage,
8% for 2006, and 7% for 2007.
The 2007 issuance year continues to be the worst-performing vintage in
terms of cumulative losses. After 12 months of seasoning, cumulative losses
for transactions issued in 2007 represent 0.47% of the original aggregate pool
balance, which is 62% higher than the 0.29% recorded for the 2006 vintage at
the same level of seasoning.
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 1:55PM
B
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 1:55PM
B
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 1:56PM
A
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 1:57PM
I will take Things that will not work for $1000 Alex
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 2:06PM
Steve's 3 Step Plan to Save LEH
1. Buy WaMu by using shares of WB.
2. Change your name to Wachovia.
3. Sue the other Wachovia for misappropriating your name.
4. Hire a ton of lawyers, and fight like hell in court accusing everyone of being crazy and out to get you.
This will divert all attention from your insolvency until the housing market recovers.
Brilliant, no?
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 2:08PM
@7-- steve who?
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 2:10PM
@Analyst
You said earlier you were short the market.
The government is coming to save the day. Deal with it.
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 2:16PM
@ 3, 4, &5
the correct answer is up, up, down, down, left, right, left, right, b, a, b,a, start.
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 2:23PM
Anal_yst @#2...
Thank you for that post. BS Rally?
Let me ask you this: Where's all the naked shorts? Off to the sidelines you say, waiting for the 29th. Then they'll resume their shorting activities and take the equities to new lows.
Here's another News Flash: Count on an extension of and an expansion of the SEC directive on or before the 29th. SEC is formulating their policy as we speak. They will not let the fucking shorts take over again.
As I've said before, laugh at me all you want because I'm not on Wall St and because I don't know about finance.
I think I know Main Street, though.
The Guy from Delaware.
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 2:27PM
A
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 2:27PM
A
Posted by asg , Jul 23, 2008 2:28PM
Once a good friend took about a dozen dudes out all night and we proceeded to gamble, booze, and buy lap dances until the next afternoon. Then he promptly filed for bankruptcy.
I'm just sayin'...
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 2:29PM
a
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 2:29PM
b
Posted by Anal_yst , Jul 23, 2008 2:39PM
@ TGFD
I think you should read this, then we'll talk
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aOTrpoxJipZA
I'll play fair and give you a chance to educate yourself before I layeth the smack down.
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 2:43PM
E, who gives a crap?? Place is a bucket shop, I say good riddance. Bunch of arrogant pricks, at least the people Ive dealt with anyway. Thought they were smarter than everyone else, guess not
Posted by Investorcluzo , Jul 23, 2008 2:43PM
@anal_yst - this is all you got after going to "the beach" (although, I know it was really "the shore" or "shoawa") for a week? the real question is: what's the second derivative of those numbers? is the rate of delinquencies increasing or decreasing? the current rally is based on the expectation that we are reaching (have reached) the bottom and it's time to begin rehabilitating (or sobering up, if you like)...
separate note, when's the next gathering? it was just girl and I last week? can't do thurs, so may need to try for next week.
Posted by beentheredonethat , Jul 23, 2008 2:45PM
Notable Asset Exposures
5/31/2008
Value ($ bil)
Senior Commercial Real Estate Loans $19.5
Mezzanine Commercial Real Estate Loan $5.9
Commercial Real Estate Equity $7.2
Archstone Equity $1.8
Archstone Debt $2.5
SunCal $1.6
Alt-A $10.2
UK Residential Mortgage $9.3
Other ABS $6.5
Leveraged Loans $11.5
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 2:49PM
@ 2:28 - one lovely winter morning my aunt bought a $25,000 mink coat (this is circa 1991), 6 bottles of $250 @ bottle wine and a cartoon of cigarettes, that afternoon they declared bankruptcy.
Posted by beentheredonethat , Jul 23, 2008 2:50PM
Okay, refer to post 20. Values as of 5/31, valued by LEH themselves, right? Take the Alt-A and the UK residential lines and you've got $20 billion. What percentage have they declined over the last two months? Now give some thought to the leveraged loans of 11.5 billion. Who thinks the balance sheet is eroding quicker than a Mississippi levee?
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 3:02PM
Obama!
Posted by Anal_yst , Jul 23, 2008 3:13PM
@ cluzo
Don't have the data (and too lazy to get it), but I'd imagine d2x is also increasing (albeing 3rd derivitive may, MAY be decreasing, but come on now, lets not be ridiculous)...
I'll be around friday if you wanna do somethin somethin
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 3:14PM
No. 21: Who drew the cartoon of cigarettes?
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 3:16PM
Anal_yst, i think what TGFD does not realize and what most have not figured out is this bailout is designed to screw the little guy (taxpayer) and save the financial sector without providing them any incentive to actually change their business practices.
At the end of the day this is not screwing wall street. All this governemnt regulation is designed to save wall street, in its current form.
TGFD even you must realize that the guy on Main Street is the loser in this scenerio. Come on BAC wrote the Home Bailout Plan, do you think they did that for main street or wall street?
Seriously TGFD you are exactly the problem with main street. You smile and can't bend over far enough all the while not realizing that you are the "stickee"!!!!!
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 3:19PM
@ #10
Thirty extra lives coming your way.
And 'A'.
Posted by Anal_yst , Jul 23, 2008 3:20PM
and before some doosh calls me out, yes i know i spelled derivative wrong
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 3:24PM
it's dousche baby
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 3:27PM
I finally get to be an a-hole on db....#10, you left out in your code from Contra
Posted by Anal_yst , Jul 23, 2008 3:28PM
@ 29, there's no s, its d0uche, was trying to avoid drawing undue attention from the various big brother programs operating on the firm's network
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 3:29PM
how bout this one, #10
007 363 5963
who beat him?
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 3:29PM
Retard #29
Its DOUCHE. There is no "S" in there. Get back to work and process those orders. Chop chop.
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 3:33PM
Figures that "Chop Chop" would know how to spell DOUCHE!
Posted by Investorcluzo , Jul 23, 2008 3:42PM
@anal_yst - friday I'm golfing with a guy from merrill (that's right, I'm calling him out)...
Posted by FUNdamental , Jul 23, 2008 3:43PM
@anal - if you happened to see the emails of roger clemens that were published, he is a big dumb jock, and routinely spelled it "dushbag" so I've been going with that...sounds funny when pronounced phoenetically and a quick jab at that asshat.
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 3:46PM
this is great:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdVAKwPAKQA&feature=related
-retail douche
Posted by Anal_yst , Jul 23, 2008 3:53PM
@ cluzo
You guys playing 36 that you're not gonna be back till after hh?
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 3:56PM
I say "A", but only if you torture him by poking your eyeball with your finger and scraping plates with knives and forks.
@ Anal_yst-
Keep on pluggin' little buddy, you still have a few more minutes before the markets close... find some more bad news.
And before you all start... I'm not your buddy, pal, friend, guy etc. etc...
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 3:56PM
@ #34
Chop chop is an expression meaning "quickly". You are more retarded than #29.
This board is populated with idiots. If you guys are managing anything its no wonder we, as a country, are in the mess we are in.
Posted by Investorcluzo , Jul 23, 2008 3:58PM
@anal_yst - his club is out in jersey, not sure what traffic will look like (and we aren't teeing it up at the a$$ crack of dawn)...it's possible I could be back around 7ish. if you and @onetwo want to get started, I could join you.
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 4:07PM
Speaking of... where has onetwo been lately? I'm missing him dazzeling me with his wit.
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 4:10PM
cluzo & analist, could you two sign up for an electronic mail account and leave the rest of us out of your weekend planning convo?
thanks in advance.
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 4:14PM
Agree with #43 @ 4:10. You're making the rest of us jealous.
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 4:17PM
@ "Chop Chop" i know what it means but thanks for the clarification. You use the "chop chop" to end one of your clever comments, whenever you post on this site.
As far as idiots and retards go - he who trolls sites managing the spelling and grammer of others while missing the subtle sarcasm and irony that we retards use, should take their "managment skills" and lose this websites address.
CHOP CHOP!
Posted by Anal_yst , Jul 23, 2008 4:18PM
@ 43
The reason we are doing it here is because others may also want to play along.
Secondly, what is this "electronic mail" of which you speak? I've never heard of it, tell me more, I'm intrigued.
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 4:23PM
Play with you pillow biters...doubtful
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 4:24PM
Anal_yst @#17...
Thank you for the article link. Sorry I didn't get back to you sooner; I was out.
The author, Mr. Weil, provided no evidence to support his assertion, "there is no evidence that supports" the damaging effects of naked shorting. All Mr. Weil did was quote SEC's Cox.
Cox's actions were much louder than his words. The ban is in place until the 29th, as I read in the directive. I believe it will be amplified and extended. I don't think Cox set this up just so his friends on Wall St can make a killing in shorts when a fool's rally would fizzle at the expiration of the SEC directive.
Believe what you want. All I know is that if I were betting, I'd bet on Uncle Sam this time around, not on Wall St.
Looks like the markets held up for another day.
"Smack" me "Down" if you want. I'm no match for you. I just told you what I think.
The Guy from Delaware
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 4:41PM
TGFD - you do realize that when you bet on Uncle Sam you are actually betting on Wall Street and against mainstreet/taxpayer. Because it is the taxpayer from Main Street through their proxy "Uncle Sam" that is actually bailing out/betting on Wall Street?
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 5:08PM
Hey, No. 45, it's "grammar," not "grammer."
Sorry.
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 5:18PM
this site is going downhill,,Dealbreaker,,you should disable comments on the posts from now on...
Posted by guest , Jul 23, 2008 5:50PM
A. Einhorn is Finkle
Posted by trojan , Jul 23, 2008 6:26PM
i kissed a man!
D. pay extra for a bailout/reacharound from paulson. everybody likes a happy ending
Posted by guest , Jul 24, 2008 9:36AM
D. Use extra pay from incoming government bailout to short its own stock, so even when LEH eventually hits 0, they will have been so successful at shorting themselves that they have enough money to start again.
That or host bake sales.