Opening Bell: 8.19.08

Posted by Joe Weisenthal, Aug 19, 2008, 7:15am

portofpotimap.jpgRussian Troops Seize Georgian Port (WSJ)
Well sure, Russia is on its way out of Georgia. But you know how you sometimes grab a piece of mind from the candy bowl next to the door at the Chinese Restaurant? Yeah, it's like that. Except its a port not a mint. And apparently it's an "economically vital" port, even though we haven't heard of it (suspicious). The port of Poti? Ring a bell? Another twist: apparently the port is being occupied by Russian "peacekeeping" forces.

Obama appears ready to announce running mate (IHT)
Check your inbound texts. You did sign up for the alert, right? You know, the Obama text alert where he's going to announce his running mate. Assuming The Politico doesn't break it first, you can have it before anyone else? But who will it be? Evan Bayh? Jim Webb? John Kerry? Hillary!?! Over at Intrade the top choice is Bayh, who's trading at .20 on the dollar. Next is Tim Kaine at .13.

Olympic Star Is Sidelined. Will His Ads Be, as Well? (NYT)
When it comes to each event, we're kind of on the ABC (Anyone But China) bandwagon, mainly because we're obsessed with the medal count -- not that we have anything against the Chinese or the Chinese athletes. Which is why we were sort of sad to see that Chinese hurdlist who had to pull out of his event due to injury. Apparently he's the 2nd biggest athlete in the country after Yao Ming. And of course, he's got endorsements out the wazoo. Anyway, interesting NYT article on what happens to all of those now that his games ended as a dud.

Lehman examines Neuberger Berman sell-off (FT)
Multiple reports this mornings that Lehman is talking to various prospective buyers about selling Neuberger Berman, the company's "lucrative" (always lucrative) asset management business. One analyst pegged the value of the unit at $10 billion, which is not bad, considering the company paid $2.3 billion for it in 2003 (but what about those taxes?). The report notes that unlike Merrill, which had the Bloomberg stake, Lehman doesn't have any non-core assets at his disposal that are natural sale opportunities.

`Busharraf' Fall May Boost Pakistani Support for War on Taliban (Bloomberg)
"Busharraf"? Oh that is a good one.

Oil drops below $112 as storm threat eases (AP)
Ah yes, it must be the easing of a storm threat that caused oil to fall again. Surely it's that and nothing to do with the broader economy or slowing demand. Not that we're complaining. Next time we have to rent a car this will save as a few bucks.

Sure, It's a Depression. Could Be Worse. (Infectious Greed)
Good news: even if the economy really tanks, you know, like really really tanks, we probably won't die an emaciated peoples. While a cataclysmic depression would suck, even in the worst of time, people can usually manage to maintain their bodyweight, according to an economics paper. Paul Kedrosky points to this paper, whose abstract includes this: "Nutritional status is very resilient to short-term variation in household resources. Gross energy intake, adult weight and child stature change very little as expenditure deviates from its long-run average. Longer-run resources have a substantively large, positive and significant effect on energy intake, diet quality, adult weight and child stature. The evidence indicates that individuals and households are able to weather short-term fluctuations in economic resources, at least in terms of maintaining body mass and energy intake."

Why is lobster getting cheaper? (Marginal Revolution)
Any ideas folks?

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Posted in: Opening Bell

Comments

1

Posted by guest, Aug 19, 2008 8:10AM

Is seizing the "Port-o-Poti" kind of like tipping over the "Schmidt House"?

2

Posted by guest, Aug 19, 2008 8:53AM

I really dont see what the Russians are doing wrong... neutralising threats is standard practice...even the US should know that.

Georgians pah...

its like being called Peterians or Craigians what kind of country is that anyhow

3

Posted by guest, Aug 19, 2008 9:05AM

You guys probably covered this and I missed it but saw your Russia-Georgia guide made the highbrow-brilliant section of NYM's approval matrix - NICE!

4

Posted by guest, Aug 19, 2008 9:08AM

@2: Americans can't exactly talk, being named after Amerigo Vespucci (yes, I know this is disputed) and being partly made up of Louisianans, Marylanders, Carolinians (North and South), Virginians (West and vanilla) and, er, Georgians.

But you aren't alone. Your pain is shared by the Franks, or as they're called now, the French.

Incidentally, when was the last time a country referred to its invading army as a warmongering force?

5

Posted by AJ, Aug 19, 2008 9:10AM

@3 wow, top corner too

6

Posted by guest, Aug 19, 2008 9:24AM

I know!! Made my train ride worthwhile this morning!

7

Posted by guest, Aug 19, 2008 9:35AM

Maybe lobster's getting cheaper because people are realizing that it's not some sort of fabulous beast worthy of being a delicacy, but a vile bottom feeder that lives on muck and fish shit.

Let's face it, lobsters are essentially giant oceanic cockroaches. Disgusting.

8

Posted by guest, Aug 19, 2008 9:46AM

I think "girl" who made a big deal about Obama's Chicago anti-Iraq speech (when he was a candidate trying to win a primary, hence appealing to the left wing) might do well to read this.

Just what many had been saying, Obama Iraw 'speech' was a political move, made easier because he didn't have to vote on it.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121907693136350027.html?mod=Best+of+the+Web+Today

9

Posted by Nemo, Aug 19, 2008 9:52AM

Actually, Joe Biden is the odds-on favorite at Intrade, with a bid/ask of 30/40.

https://www.intrade.com/?request_operation=trade&request_type=action&selConID=607635

10

Posted by guest, Aug 19, 2008 10:39AM


Maybe the reason that Russia isn't extricating itself from Georgia is because it's recent invasion of Georgia hasn't led to the anticipated pop in the price of oil, which is where Russia really derives much of its power these days. I mean, when you see the source of your power decline by 1/5, do you just sit around and do nothing??

11

Posted by girl, Aug 19, 2008 10:39AM

@ 9:46

Thank you for bringing such an idiotic and contradictory article to my attention. It's human nature to deliberate over difficult decisions and ultimately to embrace full force what we then choose to enforce as our own beliefs. To claim that Obama's acknowledged difficulty at making the decision to oppose is hypocritical to his ultimate opposition is ludicrous to say the least.

Give up already.

12

Posted by guest, Aug 19, 2008 10:58AM

Actually you might be the one forced to give up, whether he wins or not. Whereas he got one call right (the initial opposition) he got the next one horribly wrong (the surge vote). I am surprised that his anti-surge speech is not brought up by his supporters as often as his anti-Iraq speech!

In 2004, he repeatedly stated that 'given what he knew (which was nothing as he was a rank outsider) his call was right but had he known what others (Kerry, Pelosi, Clinton et al) knew his decision might have been different.' That is quite some 'conviction' backing a call.

So essentially he took one call about something which he hemself acknowledges he didnt know everything about and got it right (reasonable people would call that a fluke) and when he HAD access to information as a US Senator, he took got it all wrong (the surge).

And that is what makes you believe that he is the greatest? Wow.

"I cannot in good conscience support this escalation. It is a policy which has already been tried and a policy which has failed. Just this morning, I had veterans of the Iraq war visit my office to explain to me that this surge concept is, in fact, no different from what we have repeatedly tried, but with 20,000 troops, WE WILL NOT IN ANY IMAGINABLE WAY BE ABLE TO ACCOMPLISH ANY NEW PROGRESS." (emphasis mine) - Barack Obama, US Senate, 01/19/2007

Boy, was he right on that one.


13

Posted by guest, Aug 19, 2008 11:24AM


There's a Putin-put in the crude!

14

Posted by guest, Aug 19, 2008 8:17PM

Weisenthal:
For reason that's very obvious, the only people who don't like to see China playing or winning is USA.The rests of the world are (countries I know cheer for China if it competes with US).I wish you didn't mention that (ABC) because it sounds very loser and insecure.I'm embarrassed! It's a different world now.We must stop our arrogant attitude.It doesn't win us. Just knowing they don't cheer for US ( vs China) right in front of my face sends message.

15

Posted by guest, Aug 19, 2008 11:22PM

#14,

Dear America hating liberal - I hope you realize that the same countries that supposedly 'cheer' for China over the US tried everything to derail China's olympic torch rally, triggering rage in China. China is also (supposedly, I dont know?) supporting genocide in Iraq, suppressing Tibetans and killing muslims in Xinjian. Oh, and they are a communist dictatorship.

Compared with that, the worst that the US has done is invaded a country and removed a brutal dictator - and ever since been trying to install a democratic government against the wishes of a bunch of suicidal terrorists. Also, this country is so free that not only can not only can people like you diss this country without getting arrested (like in China), presidential hopefuls can go to other countries and diss this country and still be frontrunners.

And another small thing - but for this country most of 'those' countries would either have been exterminated in concentration camps or would be working in some gulags in Siberia.

Hence, the only conclusion that can be drawn is that those countries are the ultimate loser countries - the ones which have systematically lost their place in the world and are now - in fits - once pissed off at China and once at the US - the 2 countries competing for global power.

Now, what can we say about people in this country who get worked up by the actions of those countries? I know - the liberals really wish that they were rather living in europe. Guess what, you TOTALLY can. And there are millions of people who are desperate to get into this terrible country (as per you) and not into those elitist nations. We could have a nice population swap which would make everyone happy!

16

Posted by guest, Aug 19, 2008 11:22PM

That should have read genocide in Sudan.

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