Opening Bell: 8.27.08

heinekensidewars.jpgHeineken first-half profit climbs 35% (MarketWatch)
Breathe... Heineken turned in a solid quarter. People are still drinking alocohol. The world's third biggest brewer said revenue was up 17 percent, though only 7 percent on a comparable basis. Two good trends for the company: Consumers are going for higher end brews (presumably because everyone is in one of those phases where they look down on cheap beers) and the company is able to pass along costs. No doubt hops prices are expensive, given the global absence hops producers we talked about yesterday.

The Hillary Moment (WSJ)
How about we just go back to the same well as yesterday and make a joke about how Hillary must've done a good job, because stock markets are up, and the markets obviously fear an Obama Presidency, because he doesn't believe in low-tax, pro-growth policies, like McCain does. Actually, it was a solid speech as long as you ignore any of the, you know, substance.

Oil rises above $117 on concerns about Gustav (AP)
You know the free fall in oil is done when you see stuff like this. Ok, maybe traders don't really care at all about hurricane Gustav -- entirely possible. But these small bumps in prices are a much different story than a few weeks ago, when not even the Russian invasion could unnerve the markets.

Macquarie: The 'great unwind' is coming (FT Alphaville)
Interesting how things have changed. Well, that's obvious. Things have changed for every one of the banks and institutions we've been covering for the past 2.5 years. But in the early days, Australia's Macquarie was definitely one of the interesting ones we followed -- it invested daringly in big infrastructure deals around the world. You know, airports and water works and public highways. And now things aren't going to well, with its stock down and various financial instruments getting out of whack. A good read of how things have fallen.

Wind Energy Bumps Into Power Grid's Limits (NYT)
Yep, those majestic wind turbines, spinning gracefully in the plains and on the mountains don't exist on an island (except those that are actually on islands...). All that power needs to be moved via ugly power lines. Speaking on the same topic, check out Deep Glamour, a new blog on glamour and aesthetics from power writer Virginia Postral, the longtime blogger, magazine editor and author. Anyway, she talks about some of the aesthetics of wind power and the hiding of the grid part. Given how bent out of shape people get about the appearance of wind, it's not a trivial issue.

Baseball to start using instant replay Thursday (AP)
Sacrilege! Baseball will introduce instant replay tomorrow for the first time ever. But it will only be used for potential homeruns. Like: Were they fair, foul... did they hit the yellow on top of the wall or did the bounce of some other part of the outfield. For some reason people always make a really big deal about this stuff. And with baseball, given all the history, it's even more so. But really, isn't it best to just have the right call. And since it's only for marginal homeruns, we doubt it will be used that much.

tuitalk: Ads-Supported VoIP Calls (BusinessWeek)
Just curious: Is there any more disgraced business model than ad-supported phone calls? Nope. And yet here it is again, being totally taken seriously by a major publication.

Comments

1

Posted by guest, Aug 27, 2008 8:16AM

alocohol. At first I thought I woke up drunk

2

Posted by guest, Aug 27, 2008 9:03AM

I have never been at this high of a short ratio in my portfolio, ever.

Even this morning the financials are all bid way up.

Everyone I talk to refuses to go long and just keeps building up shorts --- wish I knew who was on the other side.

3

Posted by guest, Aug 27, 2008 9:14AM

if things aren't going to well, where are they going too?

4

Posted by Anal_yst, Aug 27, 2008 9:14AM

one of the ratings agencies put out a report last week about how infrastructure plays (specifically airports and tollroads) aren't looking so nice now that people are driving/flying less due to higher costs, this despite the fact that Macquarie and other big players like GS's infrastructure fund keep makin moves, should be fun to watch the next house of cards collapse

5

Posted by guest, Aug 27, 2008 9:14AM

if things aren't going to well, where are they going too?

6

Posted by guest, Aug 27, 2008 9:25AM

@2 Timmay! Is that you?

- The Rumor Spreader

7

Posted by guest, Aug 27, 2008 9:42AM

I like to fuck em in the ass while Wayne beats up the pussy.

-Stunna

8

Posted by guest, Aug 27, 2008 10:04AM

Wait, so you are saying that a toll road is not the same thing as a government bond? And that an inability to continually refinance is going to kill the business model of these infrastructure funds? I'm shocked. Why is ARS writing about this today? I think the Ferrovial/BAA debacle has kind of killed the chances for any big deals in the US.

9

Posted by guest, Aug 27, 2008 10:05AM

#2,

You and me both... I am Riding the Cane but that's it on the long side...

10

Posted by Finnegan, Aug 27, 2008 10:45AM

I wonder if Bill Clinton was accused of not believing in "low-tax, pro-growth policies unlike Bush" (who I voted for mind you).

Eventually such simplistic, reductionist "analysis in a box" has little to do with reality, or determining sound economic policy.

While Bush has actually done well given uncontrollable factors (Katrina, 911, the reversal of the crap dot com job hiring under Clinton), one cannot automatically make tax cuts (on the top end) the required "POW" of an answer to every problem. It just does not get you there.

11

Posted by guest, Aug 27, 2008 10:52AM

10 Actually you can if you believe in the Grover Norquist "starve the beast" philosophy. Which I personally think is simplistic. But it does have its adherents.

12

Posted by Anal_yst, Aug 27, 2008 10:56AM

@8

ha, funny how that works eh?

13

Posted by guest, Aug 27, 2008 11:00AM

may not be a govt bond, but it certainly is a stream of revenues. The trick is to value that stream correctly.

14

Posted by diablo, Aug 27, 2008 1:40PM

With governments going bankrupt, here in the US including federal and states, I can't see why big players can't get good deals in infrastructure projects (new or existing). And of course those big players will mostly use foreign money, that's where the money comes from anyway.

15

Posted by guest, Aug 27, 2008 3:49PM

Cerebrus is Selling Viper

Can someone do a quick DCF or better yet
get the book form Lazard?

financial metrics:

-Sales: ~1500 units/yr
-Invoice Cost: $78.5K/unit
-Revenue: ~$125 Million? (break even)
-Employees: 115
-Plant/equipment: US plant ?

Any industrial group model will do

thanks

16

Posted by guest, Aug 27, 2008 4:19PM

@15 - dumb post

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