[Warning: This is the second half of a two-part series and it's just as long as the first part. Again, if you're not into reading, this isn't for you].
In the first part of this forum, I asked three regional experts -- Alex Grigore'ev-Roinishvili, Julie Roginsky, and Daria Vaisman -- their opinions on what caused the current conflict between Russia and Georgia in South Ossetia. Next, I asked them what the world will do about it, if anything at all.
6. How far will Russia go with this invasion? How much heat are they willing to take from the international community? Will the international community give them any heat?
Alex Grigor'ev-Rionishvili: "This is the key question which has no answer. As of now Russia is keen on destroying Georgia's military capability and infrastructure. The question is of course what can and what would the international community do?"
Julie Roginsky: "If the Russians want regime change in Tbilisi - and judging by what their ambassador to the U.N. said recently, that is a likely possibility -- they may go as far as they need to in order to get Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili deposed. The international community has rhetorically been giving the Russian lots of heat but there is practically very little the West can do, as evidenced by the fact that the Russians chose to invade on the same night as Putin and Bush were photographed sitting together at the opening games of the Olympics in Beijing. Economic and geopolitical realities make Russia too important for the West to intervene."
Daria Vaisman: "Russia looks like it will continue until it achieves its end goal, which is, depending on whom you ask, either gaining control of the conflict zones or destabilizing the country completely. The thing is, Russia is good at muddying the waters by throwing the language of the West back at the West. As of today, Putin is claiming that Georgians committed genocide against the Ossetians. As badly as the Georgians may have acted, this was not a literal definition of genocide. But this way, Russia can point to the NATO bombings in Belgrade over their treatment of Kosovo as a precedent for Russia's actions now. And the international community realizes that it would, sadly, be nuts to get directly involved. I think the most we'll see is what we have now, which are harsh words from Bush to Russia, and a variety of international diplomats trying to broker a ceasefire."
7. Is Georgia a NATO country? Will NATO send troops there to fight the Russians?
AGR: "Georgia is not a NATO member. If it were, Article 5 of the NATO Treaty would have automatically brought the rest of the Alliance in. More or less along the lines how it happened when another Alliance was attacked in August 1914 -- very quickly and according to agreements forged --Archduke Franz Ferdinand assassinated in Sarajevo, Austria-Hungary attacks Serbia, Russia supports Serbia, Germany supports Russia, France supports Russia... It is a crucial foreign policy question -- how does the West deal with Russia now. A mistake would be to treat it as the former Soviet Union. No summer break for folks in DC or Brussels, that's for sure."
JR: "No, Georgia is not yet a NATO country and that is the partial reason for the timing. Putin is banking that instability in Georgia will lead NATO not to accept Georgia as a member state in the near future. Though the U.S. has been training the Georgian army and the Georgians have more troops in Iraq than anyone aside from the U.S. and Britain, they are not part of NATO and it is doubtful NATO will send troops there."
DV: "Georgia is not a NATO country. In fact, this April Georgia was denied a Membership Action Plan, the next phase towards full NATO, along with Ukraine. So NATO is under no obligation to send troops."
8. What's Russia's ultimate goal? Do they want to take over Georgia completely? Do they want to annex South Ossetia? Are they looking just to force Georgia to change governments? How likely is any of this to happen?
AGR: "The Russians would most likely be fine with a strengthened status quo in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, strengthening those places "interdependence", weakening Georgia militarily, and producing chaos in Georgia's internal politics."
JR: "It's hard to say. If the tanks continue to roll into Georgia proper throughout the week and if they end up in Tbilisi, the goal will almost certainly be regime change. They will not want to annex Georgia but will want to set up a pro-Russian government that will not want to join NATO and will cooperate with the Russians, rather than the West, on oil production and export mechanisms in the Caspian sea. Again, this is likely to happen because there is no one to stop the Russians and, as of this morning, they have refused to agree to a Georgian-requested cease fire."
DV: "See above, but briefly: they want Georgia back in their sphere of influence. They want to have more control over the breakaway states, and they want to prevent Georgia and their other former states from joining NATO or moving too closely to the West. To understand Russia's thinking, remember how the US felt about Cuba's relationship with the Soviet Union starting in the 1960s. And Russia has already called for Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili to step down. What's amazing is that after years of playing dirty tricks behind the scenes, they've chosen to exert themselves in such a straightforward way. "
9. What's the West doing to stop this? What's the UN doing?
AGR: "Nothing besides the US helping Georgia to airlift its 2,000 troops from Iraq to Georgia."
JR: "Both the West and the U.N. are condemning Russia's actions but practically, there is not much we can do. The Europeans are too dependent on Russian natural gas and the United States is too dependent on them on the issue of Iranian proliferation. Also, our military is obviously otherwise engaged at the moment and no one is looking to start Word War III with the Russians."
DV: "(see above)"
10. Should anyone try to stop Russia? If so, how? If not, why not?
AGR: "This is the crucial question of what the West can do and how. Whether one wants it or not Russia is using the Kosovo example to legitimize its actions. There is even talk in Moscow on establishing an international crimes tribunal against Georgia."
JR: "Obviously, this is the kind of Russian muscle flexing not seen since the end of the cold war. The fact that the United States cannot really come to the aid of a democratic ally like Georgia, which even went so far as to send troops to Iraq to help us, says quite a bit about our capabilities at the moment, both militarily and diplomatically.
The Russian market dropped significantly after the invasion of South Ossetia and it remains to be seen whether economic considerations may have more of an effect on Russian behavior than military or diplomatic threats.
From a practical standpoint, it is possible that the U.S. will use its displeasure with Russia on this issue to persuade it to play ball more closely with the West on the issue of Iranian nuclear proliferation -- which means that we will have essentially sacrificed our ally Georgia in exchange for closer cooperation on Iran, a more pressing issue for us these days."
DV: "(see above)"
11. How will this affect someone's investments in Russia? In Georgia?
AGR: "Would you invest in Georgia now?"
JR: "The Georgians have been very aggressive about personally reassuring Western investors since this crisis began but it is difficult to invest in a regime that may no longer exist after this crisis is over. If you are going to invest in Russia, make sure you have your good friend Vladimir Putin on speed dial, lest he decide to one day nationalize your company and seize your assets."
DV: "I don't think it will affect investments in Russia too badly. Businesspeople I know working in Russia expect the country to be a loose cannon politically and a relatively solid and dependable presence economically. I think Russia has shown that to be increasingly the case for the duration of Putin's tenure. For Georgia things will be much worse. Georgia, which is a gorgeous country, had built up its economy largely based on real estate and other forms of FDI [foreign direct investment]; since it doesn't have the natural resources of many of its neighbors, it had worked extra-hard to reform its business sector, rout out corruption, overhaul the tax system, and otherwise show what a safe and lawful place the country was for business. But even the most risk-taking investors will probably think twice before buying real estate in Georgia now."
12. What's a bigger deal: South Ossetia or Abkhazia? Who has more oil and gas? Are there any other ethnic groups in Georgia we should be aware of that are trying to break away?
AGR: "None have either oil or gaz. Abkhazia is important for transport reasons. There are no other ethnic groups in Georgia striving for independence but there are significant half a million each communities of Armenians and Azeris in Georgia. A consistent democratic minority policy is yet to be developed in Georgia."
JR: "They are both big deals. Abkhazia is the bigger region and fighting has already spread there. The real issue is the pretext they both serve for the re-establishment of Russian hegemony in the former Soviet Republics."
DV: "Abkhazia has always been the bigger deal, because it is geographically more distinct from Georgia than is South Ossetia, has access to the sea, and can more or less survive economically on its own. Neither place has oil or gas as far as I have ever heard. And there are lots of other ethnic groups in Georgia, but they are well-integrated into the country. The thing about Abkhazia and South Ossetia is that the conflicts have now become primarily about ethnicity, but there were many Georgians and children of mixed-parents living in regions before. Really, they are independence movement that have became conflated with ethnicity."
13. Since Americans of all political stripes like to think of themselves as the center of the world, is this something Bush caused?
JR: "Well, Bush did famously look into Putin's eyes and 'saw his soul', so at the very least let's accuse him of being a not-so-great judge of character (and judging by the soul comment probably not too good with the pick up lines at the bar in his single days)."
DV: "Amazingly, it isn't. How nice to be able to blame Stalin instead of Bush for once!"
Posted by guest , Aug 11, 2008 4:13PM
Interesting...more articles like this, please.
Posted by guest , Aug 11, 2008 4:18PM
Can someone please explain to me why Georgia didn't take out the Roki Tunnel and also deploy large numbers of SAMs, given their vulnerability to Russian air power.
It seems like with those two little steps their position would have been defensible over the short to intermediate term. And they mainly would have had to concentrate on preventing a landing via the Black Sea and blocking the Darial Gorge (which seem a good place to setup an ambush to me). At least that's what a misspent you watching the history and or military channel tell me.
Is Mikheil Saakashvili just retarded? Even if were going to provide troops we wouldn't have been able to get heavy equipment there (without secure staging area) this fast. I don't think you can put a Carrier group in the Blacksea so we'd have to secure over fly routes even to provide air support.
It seems like the guy got pot committed with a low pair.
Posted by guest , Aug 11, 2008 4:21PM
Bunch of horseshit from so-called experts
Posted by Joseph di Jersey City , Aug 11, 2008 4:30PM
AGR: I'm pretty sure that Germany supported Austria-Hungary and not Russia in WWI.
Not getting basic facts correct makes it hard to be taken seriously as an expert.
Posted by Bulging Bracket , Aug 11, 2008 4:41PM
I was really expecting them to blow the tunnel. First thing they should have done, actually, given Russia's likely (and actual) reaction.
You can put some serious hardware into the Black Sea. Russia has its Black Sea Fleet as a threat to the Med. The danger is getting between the Med and the Black. Long, narrow passage that's a choice target in a crisis.
US doesn't need to put a CVN in the Black Sea as it's just a short trip across Turkey to get to Georgia from the Med. US also has serious bases in Turkey for the purpose of keeping the Russians out and they're assured to be willing to grant access. Could also base out of Turkmenistan, Iraq, Uzbekistan or Afghanistan. All short trips for planes, though the major issue is keeping the tankers over Turkey. Would also keep the Iranians on their toes with all the flights around their airspace.
I really can't believe that the poli sci kids screwed up WWI history. Usual crap about accepting whatever our enemies do though. Freaking hippies.
Posted by guest , Aug 11, 2008 4:52PM
I'm all for WW III personally. As long as I get to watch from the sidelines.
Posted by guest , Aug 11, 2008 4:54PM
#5 that's because you don't want to see the reality. they didn't blow the tunnel because they wanted russians in.
saakashvili is cheney's puppet. do you think he gives a fuck about a few thousands peasants getting killed? do you think they don't know they don't stand a chance to the russians? even if they blew the tunnel.
i'd be long oil cuz by now it looks like iran is going to happen prettay prettay soon.
putinismydawg
Posted by trojan , Aug 11, 2008 4:55PM
i know nobody here likes reading, but in one of my college IR courses we read Modern Hatreds which gives a perfect breakdown of the georgian/ossetian/abkahzian tinderbox and how fears of the ethnic majority can spur minority action. though the current conflict seems a direct escaltion by russia, the earlier '90s wars were driven by popular Georgian chauvanism... check out the book.
Posted by guest , Aug 11, 2008 5:04PM
BB
Yeah I was reffering to the bosporus and hellespont, with regard to putting a CVN in the Blacksea and also the significant threat from Russian subs if you actually were in there. I don't think you could get a Carrier in and out without losing it.
Also I was thinking that Turkey would not grant us overflight access for the sake of helping Geogia as it would likely cause as many problems with the Russians for Turkey as it solves.
Posted by guest , Aug 11, 2008 5:05PM
I think that Russia is going to come pretty close to Tsibilis and then just stop there. They might continue to shell / bomb the capital region for some time to come but they will not directly take over that part.
Nonetheless, all this discussion is moot. In the very near future - if the current poll predictions come true, the US will not have to waste any time pontificating over these issues. As per prohpet Barak Obama's philosophy, the US should never attack / invade anyone unless they directly attack us. So the Russian and Chinese (and Iranians?) can go on attacking and taking over everything upto Canada and Mexico and we will not attack. That would be a simple world with easy decisions.
Posted by guest , Aug 11, 2008 5:05PM
"Saakashvili was torn away by bodyguards and pushed to the ground. They piled extra flak jackets on top of him. Fearing an air raid, onlookers fled, looking skyward and screaming. No jets were seen or heard."
is dustin hoffman directing this? is deniro in? and lastly how are mccain futures moving at intrade?
putinismydawg
Posted by guest , Aug 11, 2008 5:06PM
Did anyone else see Saakashvili live via satellite on Wolf Blitzer's show on Sunday? My sympathies are with the Georgians, but Saakashvili, who speaks passable English, was not an effective advocate for his country. He didn't answer direct questions and often went into rambling answers off-point.
It seems pretty obvious that the Russians are out to break the back of Georgia. The whole thing is unutterably sad.
What's this nonsense about Russia being "stable" for business? Putin and company just ran the chair of the huge BP operation in Russia out of the country, and BP is expected to have its 50% stake in the operation, which brings BP a quarter of their international revenues, confiscated. The BP official was in fear of losing his life.
Posted by guest , Aug 11, 2008 5:13PM
Man, you guys are really into this. Why do you give a s**t? People get the government they deserve.
Posted by guest , Aug 11, 2008 5:23PM
Hey great read.
@12 I agree with you on the stable business.And Georgia is going to take quite a beating too
Posted by guest , Aug 11, 2008 5:38PM
Incidentally, room rates at the Marriott Tbilisi have been plummeting in the past few days. If you guys want to get a Labor Day weekend package at bargain rates, now's the time to get in. Each room comes with continental breakfast, turndown service, and a Kalashnikov. Bullets can be found in the mini-bar, and will be billed automatically to your room.
Posted by guest , Aug 11, 2008 6:13PM
Will the assembled experts please explain how an Israeli citizen became defense minister of Georgia?
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3580136,00.html
Further, what is Israel's interest in Georgia? Does Ashkelon mean anything? And, if possible, please go into more depth on the background of the experts? For example, just how 'Russian' is Ms. Roginsky?
WTF is Patarkatksishvili?
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1192380792194&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
No mention of the Rose Revolution? Just don't call it a coup.
Posted by guest , Aug 11, 2008 6:22PM
Wow I really expect much better analysis on DB (both by the writers and the commenters). This has been pretty amateur hour for the most part.
Its all business. Its always all business. Since Georgia initiated this what were they thinking?
Did Saakashvili not expect the Russians to respond in force (due to Olympics, tension with the west, whatever...)?
If he knew they would invade whats the upside of being carpet bombed?
Posted by guest , Aug 11, 2008 6:37PM
If the Russians are in Georgia, could they do us all a favor and also put CNN out of its misery while they're there?
Posted by guest , Aug 11, 2008 6:40PM
#4--Obviously a mis-typo about Germany supporting Russia in WWI. Of course it supported the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Thanks for noticing and my apologies. As for the second part of your comment, I suggest your re-read the rest of the responses. I think I know what I am talking about. Insults from others do not deserve a reply. The bad thing is the situation is Georgia is deteriorating fast. =AGR
Posted by trojan , Aug 11, 2008 7:03PM
@10 i agree about stopping outside the capital. the goal is to get as much land as possible to have the greatest leverage at peace negotiations. the seperatist areas can be annexed as fait accompli. russia is not in georgia to conquer, but to eviscerate and leave a pliable shell. the last thing putin would want is a another chechnya style war. i would keep an eye on the transdneister/moldova conflict next
Posted by guest , Aug 11, 2008 7:27PM
The Georgians played a game of chicken with Russia just a bit too far and the Russians responded beyong their expectations.
Now the Russians seem to be taking the game of chicken against the West, nah forget it - the US (those pansy euros have never been upto much) - and it might be time to stand up to their game.
Posted by Bulging Bracket , Aug 11, 2008 7:56PM
Sorry Alex but your prescription on not treating Vla the Impaler like the USSR gets serious demerit points in my eyes, along with your focus on the technicalities of NATO involvement rather than the realities.
Not as bad as Daria saying Russia is stable for investments. Although she's right in saying that the crisis shouldn't affect investments since BP' dismemberment is sufficient to warn everyone away from dealing with the Sovs.
Perhaps some port visits to Archangel and Vladivostok by a few boomers would be apt right now, and some impromptu US Armored training with the Poles and Ukrainians. Excellent time for some dogfighting practice with the Turks and the Balts.
As to Turkey not wanting to piss off Russia - they're the next step in the "near abroad", they have rather unpleasant memories of when they were neighbors to the USSR, and have centuries of antagonism towards Moscow. Definitely not the same as convincing an Islamist government to let you invade Iraq and free the Kurds.
Posted by guest , Aug 11, 2008 8:25PM
Russia has no less right to be in Georgia than the United States has to be in Iraq.
The US is powerless here because they can't possibly claim the moral high ground.
Posted by guest , Aug 11, 2008 8:29PM
Well if turkey's granting over flight rights you can run the whole thing from the two carrier groups in the persian gulf and from iraq. its seems like it'd be pretty easy to blow the tunnel and force the russian ground forces to retreat through the Darial Gorge which would be 1992 all over again. Although I've always wondered what would stop russians (or whoever) from shooting down tanker planes (besides not wanting to violate Turkish airspace, which admittedly would be sufficient in this case), if I were them the tankers would be my main target.
Also what's the deal with F-22 are they only deployed in Japan or what?
Posted by guest , Aug 11, 2008 10:39PM
#16: I see Vladimir Zhirinovsky (aka, Vladimir Eidelshtein) is here to ask who's a Jew. Let's see your blood, #16. I bet there's some filthy Zionist Jew blood in you, too.
Posted by guest , Aug 11, 2008 11:23PM
Good call. How'd you guess? Takes one to know one?
If I'm Zhirinovsky does that mean you're Bela Kun? Or is he in Tbilisi?
Posted by guest , Aug 12, 2008 12:29AM
"Can someone please explain to me why Georgia didn't take out the Roki Tunnel..."
Ethnic cleansing. The tunnel was left open so that Ossetian refugees would leave Georgia. So far 30,000 have done so.
Did the Georgian people want a war? No. The Ossetians? No. The Russians? No.
Georgia's puppet regime was led to believe it could win a war. With IDF training how could they lose? The Georgian president claims they've already shot down 20 Russian aircraft and with only 60 soldiers wiped out an entire Russian division. Must be true.
Hopefully America's own foolish puppet is enjoying the Olympics.
It's weird, but maybe there's something genetic about Russians that makes them want to help people out and do the right thing. http://www.nypost.com/php/pfriendly/print.php?url=http://www.nypost.com/seven/08112008/news/regionalnews/coney_island_mob_beats_ex_marines_rescui_123919.htm
Real Russians. Real Americans. And no, Ms. Roginsky isn't either one.
Posted by guest , Aug 12, 2008 8:31AM
DB- Next time get a Russian to comment on the stuff your Georgian "expert" is letting out... Georgians were killing wounded Russian troops in contravention to international rules of war...those murderers deserve to be bombed to hell.
Russia is NOT to blame here, except showing strength and not taking any shit from idiot neighbours.
The US , UK and any other European country would do the same...albeit maybe slower since they have a history of dilly dallying about making the situation worse.
Stop Russia bashing and look inwards... the US war on terror has killed more innocents...illegal invasions go unhampered, it seems easy to blame someone else when this thing happens.
Respect for Russia for putting the lead toed boot in first...
Posted by guest , Aug 12, 2008 8:33AM
DB- Next time get a Russian to comment on the stuff your Georgian "expert" is letting out... Georgians were killing wounded Russian troops in contravention to international rules of war...those murderers deserve to be bombed to hell.
Russia is NOT to blame here, except showing strength and not taking any shit from idiot neighbours.
The US , UK and any other European country would do the same...albeit maybe slower since they have a history of dilly dallying about making the situation worse.
Stop Russia bashing and look inwards... the US war on terror has killed more innocents...illegal invasions go unhampered, it seems easy to blame someone else when this thing happens.
Respect for Russia for putting the lead toed boot in first...
Posted by guest , Aug 12, 2008 12:06PM
#6 apparently doesn't know what the first 'W' in WW3 stands for.
Personally, I wish they still had the rule that all states competing in the Olympics had to suspend any hostilities for the duration of the Games. I doubt Russia would be much bothered, but they used to take it so seriously that seeing their athletes forced to pack up and leave Beijing would provide some comic relief.
Posted by guest , Aug 12, 2008 2:57PM
Now what does Russia do when the largest US, plus allies (brits and france), naval armada (since the 1991 Gulf War) hits the Persian Gulf (later this week).
Apparently Kuwait has already activated its "Emergency War Plan".
Those that are currently short oil might want to re-think that position.
Posted by guest , Aug 13, 2008 4:30AM
@31... dont you think that this "armada" is there to give Iran the heebie jeebies?
Doubt Russia would be concerned with a Persian Gulf Armada...esp since they pump and suppy oil to most of Europe, and the range from the persian Gulf to Russia (anywhere important) is better reached via the Med or Baltic or Eastern Paciic.
Agree that maybe we should be watching Oil... trend followers with wide stops beware!