[Warning: This is the first of a two-part series and they're both REALLY long. If you have little patience, intelligence, interest in what's going on in the Russian/Georgian conflict, or think that Russia took over Atlanta, this isn't for you. If, however, you've been paying attention to this, are trading energy futures and/or are loaded up on BRIC countries -- and Russia is the 'R' in BRIC -- you're going to want to read this.]
If you’ve been following the news this past weekend, the real story wasn’t Michael Phelps or even jillion-dollar extravaganza opening ceremonies in Beijing. Rather, it was the flare-up between Russia and Georgia. If you haven’t heard, there’s a lot of oil and natural gas in that area and the Russians bombed (though missed) a major pipeline. Nonetheless, oil prices continued to drop today, but the question is: What’s going on there? Are the markets overreacting or under-reacting?
To get a handle on it, I asked three experts on the region for their input in a Q&A format. Each has a different approach to the situation but, surprisingly, they have similar conclusions. This broken up into two parts: first, ‘Who Started It?’ and, second, ‘What’s The World Going to Do About It?’.
After the jump, the forum begins.
Our experts are:
Alex Grigor’ev-Roinishvili is the Executive Director of the Princeton-based Project on Ethnic Relations, an international organization involved in resolution of ethnic conflict and post-conflict management. He holds degrees in history and international affairs from leading US and European Universities and is a recognized authority on the Balkans and especially the countries of former Yugoslavia. Experienced dealing with ministers and organizations of several countries in the region, he is fluent in Russian, Georgian, Serbo-Croatian, Hungarian, Albanian, and English among other languages.
Julie Roginsky received a master’s degree in political science, with an emphasis on post-Soviet economics, in 1995 in order to make her Russian parents happy. Since it has taken 13 years for someone to actually ask her opinion on something related to post-Soviet economics, she had to find real employment in the meantime and works as a Democratic political consultant and is frequently seen on CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News.
Daria Vaisman is a journalist who lived in Georgia for several years, where she was also an analyst and worked briefly in the Georgian Government. She is currently writing a book on US foreign policy in the former Soviet Union.
1.Who started it?
Alex Grigor’ev-Roinishvili: “In every ethnic conflict each side is right (and that is about the Georgian-South Ossetia conflict, I am not talking about Russia yet). It is hopeless to go into ancient history or even into the Soviet times. Georgia’s abolishment of South Ossetia’s autonomy under then President of Georgia Gamsakhurdia was a major turning point in angering the Ossetians and for launching their latest separatist movement. Russia’s role from the very beginning was not the one of a peacemaker but an active defender and supporter of the Tskhinvali criminal war-lord regime. In fact, a number of people who are in charge in the self-proclaimed state stem from Russia’s security structures. In the last decade the Russians have issued Russian passports to the majority of South Ossetia residents (same is true for Abkhazia). It was very easy for the Russians to justify the attack — its citizens have been attacked. Never mind Russia’s official recognition of Georgia’s borders. The level of Russia’s preparedness for the action last week suggests that Russia was getting ready for such a scenario and the question was not if but when. Georgia, on the other hand, has never seriously acted on negotiating a settlement with South Ossetians. There has never been a genuine offer to negotiate or a plan. The military was preparing as early as 2006 when the then Georgian Defense Minister Okruashvili promised that he would celebrate Christmas in Tskhinvali [South Ossetia's capital].”
Julie Roginsky: “De jure, the Georgians. De facto, the Russians.”
Daria Vaisman: “A good question. To use a political science term, the proximate — the immediate — cause of the conflict was Georgia taking control of South Ossetia, which was bound to make the Russians crazy. But the distal cause — the real reason this happened — is that Russia has been waiting for just this kind of opportunity to weaken Georgia for ages. ”
2. No, really — Who started it? Who can we blame when we’re talking about it at a cocktail party trying to impress people with how much we know?
AGR: “You would really impress your party friends if you can produce a solution to this problem and not just talk about it.”
JR: “It depends on the length of the cocktail party and how hard you are trying to impress your date. If the person you are trying to impress is of strong-to-medium-attractiveness and stronger-to-medium attention span, try this on:
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has spent the past decade vowing to restore what he considers Russia’s rightful place on the world stage. The Russian felt humiliated by the West’s actions with respect to Serbia in the 1990s and more recently by the fact that its former satellites Georgia and Ukraine were actually applying to be members of NATO. Clearly, having NATO nations on its borders is unacceptable to the Russians, who insist on hegemony among the former Soviet Republics.
In the meantime, ethnic minorities in South Ossetia and Abkhazia have been chafing under Georgian rule and have asked for Russian help. After periodic fighting between South Ossetia and Abkhazia and Georgia, Russians sent in peace keepers. The Russians also used the West’s recognition of Kosovo as an excuse to say that the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia should get the same treatment as the Kosavars, who declared independence from Serbia, Russia’s Balkan ally.
Arguably at Russian instigation, South Ossetian separatists provoked the Georgian army into invading them. This gave Russia the excuse to send its military and Black Sea fleet into first South Ossetia and then directly into Georgia and to declare war on Georgia. ”
DV: “The Georgians are to blame for being hotheaded and for not thinking out their game-plan; the Russians are to blame for taking the retaliation to a level so disproportionate that it seems more shocking by the hour.”
3. What’s the real reason Russia is sending troops into South Ossetia?
AGR: “To shrink the pro-Western and especially pro-American advance in its neighborhood.”
JR: “The real reason is threefold:
a) To teach the Georgians and other former Republics like Ukraine a lesson in who’s in charge in the region and the consequences of ignoring that fact.
b) To teach the West, including the European Union and the United States, a lesson to the limits of Western power.
c) To effectuate a regime change, if possible, in Georgia, since its president is a young, western educated, pro-U.S. democrat who has had a notoriously poor relationship with Putin.”
DV: “Russia has a long history of weakening its former colonies that have West-leaning ambitions by tampering with their ethnic minority populations. It started way back with Stalin, in fact. Russia sees South Ossetia as part of its sphere of influence, and the Ossetians themselves felt much closer to Russia than they did the Georgians, whom they feared since Georgia became independent from the Soviet Union in the early 1990s.”
4. Is Russia trying to prove they’re a superpower here or are they just really annoyed with Georgia?
AGR: “Both. Plus secure its interests geopolitically and economically, especially with regards to energy.”
JR: “Both. They are, in fact, an economic superpower in ways few others are. The country is awash in petrodollars. From an economic standpoint, one-third of Europe’s natural gas comes from Russia. The Russians have come close to bombing — though have not yet destroyed — the only oil pipeline in the Caucuses that bypasses Russia altogether and which provides oil to Western Europe. Russia is fully aware that Western friendship towards Georgia exists in large part to break Russian dominance and control over Caspian Sea oil and gas exports, since Georgia is a major transit hub of oil to Western markets. As a petrostate, Russia naturally finds this unacceptable. From a political standpoint, Russia fully knows the West needs Russia too much on issues such as Iran to come to Georgia’s aid in any way other than rhetorically.”
DV: “Both. What better way to flex your superpowers than to exhibit such unmediated annoyance? A geek may be just as angry as a bully in a schoolyard fight, but only one of them gets to show it.”
5. It has been posited that Russia’s interest is really to knock off Georgia’s oil and gas pipelines, thereby getting rid of a major competitor for Caucasian energy. What do you think? Is that plausible?
AGR: “Geopolitics is much more important here.”
JR: “Yes, this is absolutely plausible. The goal is either to knock out the pipelines or to show that it could knock them out at any moment in order to get the West to respect Russia’s regional dominance. As it is, oil prices rose over the weekend in part because shipments of oil from two Georgian ports have been suspended since Saturday due to fighting in South Ossetia.”
DV: “I definitely don’t think that was Russia’s motivation. First of all, Georgia is only a transit country; the source of gas and oil is Azerbaijan, which has a relatively good relationship to Russia. That’s not to say that Russia is happy about BTC [Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline] — it fought against it bitterly in the 1990s, when the Clinton Administration first proposed building the pipeline with the intention of breaking Russia’s energy monopoly. But Russia is good at staying within an inch of international acceptability, which is to say that in their minds, going after Georgia is one thing, spooking Western investors another. In New Russia, business is business.”
Next up: Part II: “What’s The World Going to Do About It?”
dude must be brilliant to make up all this shit.
Psst, hide the photos of Bess’s tits down here. It’ll be our secret.
“A good question. To use a political science term, the proximate — the immediate”
That’s exclusively a political science term?
Who is this chick – Harry from Dumb & Dumber? “I specialize in Canines. DOGS, to the layperson”
This is very informative. However, I am reserving judgement until Aleksey Vayner is heard from.
Too long, didn’t readovich.
I appreciated the information. It also helps me win an argument with my sister.
#2, I’m willing to negotiate a compromise.
Would you be satisfied with a pic of her balls?
“”I specialize in Canines. DOGS, to the layperson”
haha
CNote, here’s another one:
“From a political standpoint, Russia fully knows the West needs Russia too much on issues such as Iran to come to Georgia’s aid in any way other than rhetorically.”
I had no idea the Israeli’s needed Russia to bomb the shit out of Iran.
VR:”Clearly, having NATO nations on its borders is unacceptable to the Russians, who insist on hegemony among the former Soviet Republics.”
I hope that no one at the cocktail party is Estonian, Latvian, Lithuanian or Polish. If so, I suspect that people won’t be impressed when they point out that all of these countries both share a border with Russia and are members of NATO.
Liked Number 5′s comment. Well played sir!
~Shecky Buffett
DB–thanks for the post, this is great. Being that there is limited freedom of press in Russia and Georgia isn’t letting any many journalists, it’s tough to get the “truth” in this situation. But here is a post from another website I’m a member of:
“I am currently in Tbilisi and bombing has not been stopped during the last 3 nights… Most parts of Georgia has been completely destroyed….the list is too long… It is a little bit quiet in Tbilisi at this point but the planes are still flying over the city. Just this morning from 4 a.m. to 6 a.m. four-five places were bombed in different places!”
Pretty frightening . . .
Anyway, the whole situation seems to involve a very tough legal issue: On one hand, we have the claim that Georgia was involved in “ethnic cleansing” in Ossetia and that Russia intervened to protect its own people, while on the other hand, we have the fact that Ossetia is in the territory of Georgia, so any involvement by Russia is technically an invasion of Georgia.
Perhaps a little more discussion about the US role in this would be appropriate. Cheney is involved directly and he rarely is unless it is consistent with his overall agenda.
This discussion barely scratches the surface. Its an old disagreement. Georgia just threw a roundhouse punch using the opening of the Olympics as cover.
Its inconceivable that Georgia undertook this action without informing the US, which is supplying military advisors and logistical support.
Really misses the whole point. Who cares who started it. The real question is why, and what is the endgame? A little personal enrichment on the way out, or something a little more profound?
Comrades Bush and Paulson made a deal with Comrades Putin and Jintao. They cut oil prices and support our falling economy, we give them Georgia in return.
yes #12 this is a tough legal issue. are you fuckin daft?
dealbreaker=simple minded amateurs citing ‘experts’ who can speak russian. bfd
cheney thinks he’s smart pushing putin’s hand in the wake of iranian strike. he’s in it for a big surprise let me tell ya this much.
the big question is this: what’s levin’s whoreness level? would she show her tits here to pump up the dwindling uniques?
putinismydawg
Right now it looks like Russia has smashed Georgia and is advancing on the capital. Will my homeboys in the Whitehouse do anything, or will Bush let Putin do what he wants after looking into his soul?
Time to get the georgians some air cover, which is very close at the moment with the focus on Iraq and Afstan. If we can get Turky to support Georgia (likely since they’re not exactly old friends of Moscow), it won’t be hard to put some serious CAP up. Then give the Georgians a couple thousand Javelins and let’s see how good those Russian tanks are.
People of the world. You deceive! World mass media conduct propagation of a false information. Russia DID NOT ATTACK Georgia! 07.08.2008 at 22:00 Georgia has attacked South Ossetia. At 3:30 08.08.2008 tanks of the Georgian armies have entered into city Tskhinvali. Artillery bombardment all the day long proceeded, fights with use of tanks and heavy combat material, both against ossetic armies, and against peace inhabitants were conducted. 1400 civil people already were lost. The Russian peacemakers have arrived to South Ossetia in the evening 08.08.2008 for settlement of the conflict and prompting of the world in republic and protection of the Russian citizens living on territory of South Ossetia. Georgia has attacked South Ossetia on eve of Olympiad, it is top of cruelty and cynicism. Proofs and video-materials look on : http://www.1tvrus.com/ , http://www.1tv.ru/owa/win/ort6_main.main , http://www.rian.ru/ , http://www.vesti.ru/news , news.ntv.ru/ , http://www.ren-tv.com/ , http://www.newsru.com/ .We shall tell is not present to WAR!!!
What is the likelihood of it turning into a guerrilla war?
I don’t think that they have bombed pipelines because there are also pipelines that are operated by the russian company Transneft (Baku-Supsa Pipeline)
15–in case you haven’t been in conversations about this, there are a multitude of people who do not actually concede that Russia has invaded Georgia. Rather, they believe that S. Ossetia has been a Russian territory all along and that it was forcefully and reluctantly included as part of Georgia (plus the fact that Russia is willing to give Russian passports to S. Ossetians).
Point being, while yes, to some the statemet that this is a tough legal issue is obvious, to others it is not (thus your comment on the “daftness” of what I, and apparently you, would consider a statment of the obvious, but which others do not, is quite one-sided). Many see this simply as Georgia attacking Russians in S. Ossetia which allows Russia to enter S. Ossetia, an area they do not fully believe is/should be part of Georgia.
What do you think Aleksy Vainer thinks of all of this?
@4 and 21–I think 17 is his response.
20: It is impossible to not concede that Russia has invaded Georgia now that they have taken Gori, which is outside the disputed territories.
@ 15: Maybe you haven’t been in many discussions with people surrounding this war, but to many, this is not a tough legal issue. Many believe that S. Ossetia is not/should not be a part of Georgia and that any entry by Russia into the area is, in fact, merely movement into an Russian area that was unwillingly/forcefully annexed into Georgia. Plus, Russia has stated that those residing in S. Ossetia may have Russian passports. Therefore, an attack by Georgia on S. Ossetians is to man (and most Russians) an attack on Russia itself, meaning that Russia’s movement is not considered an invasion of a sovereign country at all, but rather an entry into a Russian area to protect fellow Russians.
Point being, a statement of what I, and you, would consider the obvious, and thus a “daft” statement, is not obvious to everyone. To state that it is a daft statement is to embrace a very one-sided view that is inconsistent with the thoughts and opinions of many. Plus you seemed to actually add something insightful in the rest of your post, which makes me wonder why you would be so petty as to make a feeble attempt at an insult on an anonymous blog.
To #19: Russian Transneft does not operate the Baku-Supsa pipeline. Baku-Supsa is operated by BP (the largest shareholder in the AIOC oil consortium that fills the Baku-Supsa and BTC pipelines). There is a Georgian Transneft that is responsible for some aspects of Baku-Supsa, but it is completely different from the Russian state pipeline company Transneft.
Also, Russia attempted to blow up Baku-Supsa, not the BTC. (http://oilandglory.com/2008/08/georgia-russia-and-rethinking-china.html)
@24:
I was under the impression that Georgia had internationally recognized borders. I mean, Mexico couldn’t invade Texas and it would “not be an invasion because it was unwillingly/forcefully annexed into the US”. That’s just retarded reasoning.
@14: you are dumb.
@26–I’m not disagreeing with you. From an objective POV, Georgia does have internationally recognized boundaries that include S. Ossetia. I was simply stating that not everyone agrees with those boundaries, and those that don’t agree do not think the boundaries are legitimate (it’s a statement of subjective belief by those who justify Russia’s entry into Georgia).
Similar things can be said about Kosovo–40 something nations have recognized its independence, but others haven’t. So, depending on who you ask, the Republic of Kosovo either does or does not actually exist. While this is a much more extreme example than S. Ossetia, it just reveals how the idea of “international law” and state recognition/existence is murky as hell.
Apologies for the double post earlier, by the way.
But, 23, you’re probably right, now that Russia has entered into other parts of Georgia, it looks much more like an invasion. Though Russia will argue protective stance . . .
#20 i was not disputing the claim whether or not russia invaded georgia or was entitled to. your stating that it’s a tough legal issue was the focus of my comment because it’s hilarious. do you actually think anyone gives a hoot anymore about international laws/rights/borders? the security council is a circus. UN is a joke. who’s going to enforce the law you invoke?
wake up and smell the roses. it’s a beautiful day.
hujintaoismydawg
There is no sense to judge Russian invasion itself. It is just the right of powerful: quod principi placuit, legis habet vigorem. US once had Yugoslavia, and now Mother Russia put on a strapon and bent someone very small and very proud over.
The real question is about people deaths. Mishiko just did 14 hour cover shelling of the city full of civilians and called that a restoration of constitutional regime. That I call ethnic cleansing. Neither Georgians or Osetians are pure innocent angels in this conflicts. That is their land and they were cutting each other throats for this land since long ago. As far as Russians are concerned, their military are pursuing another goals: while securing osetian territory, destroy georgian military infrastructure, make them incapable of any kind of military response, bring them to their knees. I don’t even think they gonna overthrow the government. There’s no need after such a humiliation. Worth mentioning that Russian Ivan, either from infantry, armor division or bomber pilot has no personal or national interest there, no hatred at all. He will just follow orders, like US troops in Iraq or Afghanistan.
Civilian casualties are inevitable since it is already a full scale war. Like it happened in Gori, some dumbfuck built an ammo warehouse in the middle of the town. Would it stop US NAVY from destroying 1-2 days of enemy artillery supplies by dropping few bombs there?
Again, the politics behind the scene are obvious: some trade-off between Russia and US is going on, and no one can do anything about that. Like “we let you screw Georgia and you won’t sell those S-300 to Iran”, or something.
“do you actually think anyone gives a hoot anymore about international laws/rights/borders? the security council is a circus. UN is a joke. who’s going to enforce the law you invoke?”
That is a wise comment, and I totally agree. I’m also in the camp that true “international law” does not exist. It’s just a fabricated system that attempts to entice countries to negotiate before blowing each other up. But there’s not jurisdiction for “international law” and thus no way to enforce the “rules.” So when any country sees that its own interests are not aligned with the international community, it will do as it pleases.
I think Russia is well aware that no other country will really get involved with this war (’cause it would probably just lead to a world war and we’d all be screwed) so it attacked. Russia also has some legitimate arguements on its side, so whether it’s in the wrong is arguable.
10:38 GMT (5:38 AM CST) – Oil giant BP (British Petroleum) denies Georgian reports alleging Russian planes bombed the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.
http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/28804
#20, given that “04:54 GMT – Russian journalist confirms that Georgian soldiers killed wounded Russian peacekeepers” i doubt your local ‘ivan’ has little vested emotional interest in this conflict.
whops, i mean #30
1M people in Tbilisi, money, gas, oil vs. 1m lives in danger. Since when did abrupt violence solve problems? Since when did man’s inhumanity get justified by redrawn borders? The ugly spectre of nationalism, money and resources has cast a long shadow on this earth long enough. Listen to yourselves, these are human lives.
Brilliant, LOVED it.
I just tried to look up Georgia on Google Maps…They have no capital city or roads. I couldn’t find the pipeline either…
International law, nation boundaries are irrelevant. Corps are doing business together across national lines, outside regs and within governmental regimes and we are supposed to believe it is purely political? World needs to wake up from that old geopolitical dream…it’s all business.
This attack on innocent people occured during the Olympics, w/ Bush and Putin sitting in the bleachers – for a reason. What did Putin say to Bush? “Let’s do lunch?”
And the fact that no one in the mainstream or popular blog media is showing this map or talking about what’s really behind this latest attack on innocent human beings for the sake of oil.
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/caspian_sea_oil_gas-…
International law, nation boundaries are irrelevant. Corps are doing business together across national lines, outside regs and within governmental regimes and we are supposed to believe it is purely political? World needs to wake up from that old geopolitical dream…it’s all business.
This attack on innocent people occured during the Olympics, w/ Bush and Putin sitting in the bleachers – for a reason. What did Putin say to Bush? “Let’s do lunch?”
And the fact that no one in the mainstream or popular blog media is showing this map or talking about what’s really behind this latest attack on innocent human beings for the sake of oil.
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/caspian_sea_oil_gas-…
sorry, twice.
map is here.
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/caspian_sea_oil_gas-2001.jpg
Neither South Ossetia nor Abkhazia were originally part of Georgia. Stalin, a Georgian, gave these two areas to Georgia when he created the SSRs. The locals have chafed under Georgian control ever since and have no intention of submitting to them in the future. Why should they? As for Russia’s quarrel with the USA, let us not forget that the Bush/Cheney have been on the collective Russian ass since they seized power in the coup d’etats of 2000/2004. Talk about bloodthirsty murders!
Putin is a mere piker compared with the Bush/Cheney monster. And let’s not forget the butcher from Arkansas: the Dems deserve equal time here with the GOP. It was Clinton who dismembered Yugoslavia, bombed Serbia into the stone age, essentially seizing Kosovo and wiping his criminal ass on the Constitution of the US. Bush/Cheney aren’t the only ones guilty of that. Bush/Cheney also got in Russia’s face when they unilaterally tore up the ABM treaty and began to plan for Full Spectrum Dominance. The US, GOP and Dems alike, is itching to nuke Russia and have been preparing its Georgian puppet for this eventuality. The US and its principal puppet, Israel, have been supplying the Georgians with weapons and training for years now, most recently just before the Georgian invasion of South Ossetia. But the US uses its puppets like toilet paper. Don’t forget that the US encouraged the Hungarians to rebel against the Soviets in 1956 only to hang them out to dry just as Bush Sr. encouraged the Kurds and the Shia to rebel against Saddam after Gulf War I only to betray them and stand by while Saddam slaughtered them. They’ve just done the same thing to Georgia. Anyone who believes that the US was not 100% in control of the Georgian invasion would probably like to buy my oil shares at mid- July prices. Don’t forget what the Great Spider, Henry Kissinger, once said: To be an enemy of the US can be a dangerous thing, but to be its friend is always fatal. HaHaHa. Someday Israel will find out what it means to be a friend of the US.
Jeez #41,
Take your meds or get a girlfriend or something.
Bush Derangement Syndrome has affected your ability to reason. This is what happens from reading too much Daily Kos.
Get help.
People, people. Can’t we get back to Bess’ tits or something important like that?
Can we please stop fighting Israel’s wars. Why are we now enemies with Russia? The Jews want to re-establish some old dead Jew colony in Georgia that eastern europian jews fled from like 900 years ago. Get off our nutz already “neocons”
I have no problem with Israel, but why not do your own dirtywork. Clearly Russia isn’t going to take your b.s., don’t drag us into it.