Government Takes Over Fannie And Freddie!
DealBreaker Weekend Edition

The Federal Housing Finance Authority will take over as conservator Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government announced as part of its breathtaking rescue of the two housing giants. Under the plan, the current common stocks shareholders will be nearly wiped out and preferred holders will take a hit, the US government will take up to a $100 billion senior-preferred stock position in each company as needed to maintain a positive net worth, purchase mortgage back securities from the two firms, and lend money to the companies through a special facility run through the Federal Reserve.

Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson was very critical of the structure of the companies as quasi-private institutions, which allowed the shareholders and executives to benefit from profits without bearing the economic risks involved. That situation is thought to have encouraged financial recklessness.

"Market discipline is best served when shareholders bear both the risk and the reward of their investment. While conservatorship does not eliminate the common stock, it does place common shareholders last in terms of claims on the assets of the enterprise," he said.

Our first reaction:
It's pretty odd that the common shares will remain outstanding and continue to trade on the exchanges. How do you value a company run by the government? Paulson's statement that the common shareholders will be last is not very helpful. Common shareholders are always the last claimants on the residual value of a company.

We'll update as more details become available. Feel free to add links and your own evaluations below.


Updates:


The AP on who's running Fannie and Freddie
: "Officials announced that the executives of both institutions had been replaced. Herb Allison, a former vice chairman of Merrill Lynch, was selected to head Fannie Mae, and David Moffett, a former vice chairman of US Bancorp, was picked to head Freddie Mac."

Liz Moyer says Morgan Stanley, which was hired by the Treasury Department to help formulate a rescue plan, uncovered the accounting problems
: "Reports Sunday say Morgan Stanley uncovered accounting methods that, while legal, made it look like Freddie, and to a lesser extent, Fannie, had more capital than they would have using different accounting. That discovery is believed to be the catalyst for the Treasury's actions this weekend."

Barry Ritholz
is working his way through the plan, and has a helpful 10-point summary. He says it looks like holders of common stock get an 80% haircut.

A left-wing web forum wonders why we shouldn't just describe this as the "nationalization of a major financial sector?" And over at the uber-free market website of the Mises Institute, they totally agree.

The legal authority for Treasury to undertake this takeover was established by Congress on July 30.
Over at the Conglomerate David Zaring notes that "it is strange that the government's authority to bail out business is quite so underspecified, or given at the last minute, given that it has been forced to act this way time and again. If bailouts are going to be a fact of the life of financial crises, Congress really ought to specify the precise authority that government agencies have to engage in them." On first blush, we think that's probably wrong: sometimes it's better to proceed in an ah-hoc, unpredictable way. Creating a structural of predictable bailouts would increase systemic risk and moral hazard.

More updates here and here.

Comments

1

Posted by guest, Sep 07, 2008 12:50PM

Paulson looked horrible when he made the announcement. He clearly has not slept in 72 hours. Perhaps the look under the hood of freddie and fannie finally shock his confidence "that this crisis can be contained".

Big question for all what do the markets do tomorrow. Anyone care to guess?

2

Posted by guest, Sep 07, 2008 1:01PM

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

is the best summary so far.

Go figure !

3

Posted by guest, Sep 07, 2008 1:02PM

Wonder where Freddie and Fannie stock are headed?

According to this article, Fannie and Freddie stock remains untouched by conservatorship, and will trade as they always. This comes directly from Treasury, so I'm quite confident the stocks will trade as normal:

http://www.ehow.com/how_4503604_mac-fre-stock-during-conservatorship.html
How to Trade Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) Stock During Conservatorship

Whether they trade higher or lower remains to be seen!

4

Posted by guest, Sep 07, 2008 1:03PM

Stocks are completely gone, Mr.!

5

Posted by guest, Sep 07, 2008 1:08PM

I think that the stunner of what Paulson said this morning was not about the equity haircuts, but that they didn't explicitly guarantee the GSE debt. This suggest that the fear of a flight from Treasuries and a consequent dollar run is real.

Moreover, it says that these fears are so significant that they trumped the very serious concerns about foreign CBs pulling out of GSE debt. In other words, VERY scary in terms of macro stability.

6

Posted by guest, Sep 07, 2008 1:35PM

My two cents: markets down, big time...Just like here when UK Govt took over Northern Rock.

7

Posted by guest, Sep 07, 2008 1:39PM

Watch what the Chinese and Japanese are going to do with their FRE & FNM debt holdings on monday.

They have been pressuring Bush and Paulson to give explicit guarantee on the GSE debt for a few weeks now.

8

Posted by guest, Sep 07, 2008 1:40PM

The socialist fraud continues......

9

Posted by guest, Sep 07, 2008 1:45PM

Chavez is laughing his ass off.

10

Posted by guest, Sep 07, 2008 2:15PM

Sen. McCain, the Republican nominee, said he remains open to personal accounts, also called private accounts, for younger people.....There may be a role for private investment accounts for younger workers as long as they are not a substitute for insuring the solvency of the system and does not affect the system,'' Sen. McCain said.

Sen. Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee, says he remains deeply opposed...."Privatizing Social Security was a bad idea when George Bush proposed it, and it's a bad idea today...

-----

But of course. It remains a 'bad idea' because you can always wait till the day it becomes totally insolvent and then simply raise taxes on some people to cover for it (oh, that also seems like his current plan).

But hey, Obama SUPPORTS ON DEMAND ABORTION so fuck everything else. Thats all that matters.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122074594873607453.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news

11

Posted by a dead horse, Sep 07, 2008 2:39PM

Liz Moyer says Merrill uncovered the accounting problems: "Reports Sunday say Morgan Stanley uncovered accounting methods....."

So which is it?

12

Posted by guest, Sep 07, 2008 3:19PM

Nice way to deal with the common. Let the lumpen continue to fantasize that it has some value.

13

Posted by guest, Sep 07, 2008 3:25PM

I'm sure John meant that Morgan Stanley uncovered the Freddie Mac accounting methods. The NYT article about that was scary enough. Given the historical accounting problems at Freddie Mac (and Fannie Mae) it wasn't too surprising.

Nothing in this outcome is too surprising. The only thing that is surprising is that we still seem to have a half-plan inasmuch as the common stocks are trading and there is no explicit guarantee on critical foreign debt.

I suppose it's a "good" thing that the debt ceiling was raised to $11 trillion. And that it's a "good" thing that the GSEs will keep underwriting mortgages, and risky mortgages at that.

I suppose the enormity of the collapse is too much for even weekend warrior Paulson to take in and handle at one time.

To say that the whole thing is an appalling failure of federal oversight is an understatement. The long-term consequences cannot even be fully comprehended at this point.

14

Posted by guest, Sep 07, 2008 3:31PM

No offense to our friends in the UK, but the UK taking over Northern Rock is a pimple on the butt compared to this problem. The US has created an enormous hole for its economy to fall into.

15

Posted by guest, Sep 07, 2008 3:36PM

#13, It is not a 'failure of federal oversight.'

It is a failure of the philosophy that the government should get involved in stuff it has absolutely no right to get involved in. Oversight would have prevented jackshit. When you have a 65x leverage play, implicit backing of the treasury combined no regards for losses, this IS what you get.

This is also what you get with government run retirement savings, government run 'jobs banks' and government run healthcare. Look at RomneyCare in MA - already running massive deficits and it is yet only into its 3rd year.

This is crazy. First you create an asset bubble with manipulated low interested rates. Then you feed fuel into the fire by letting the agencies run amok and thereby incentivizing the private lenders to look at riskier borrowers for profit.

Then when that whole thing comes crashing down you rescue one of them for the greater stability of the financial system (BSC). Finally you do the mother bailout worth hundreds of billions (trillions??)

The problem in this whole sequence is not 'lack of oversight.' It is involvement - of the government.

16

Posted by guest, Sep 07, 2008 3:43PM

12, that is not an entirely appropriate take.

The agencies just cut down their borrowing costs substantially. If they continue to buy mortgages (as they say they will) and simultaneously jack up their g-fee business, they will actually be churning out some really sweet profits (once all the existing writedowns are taken care of).

I would write the equity off completely. Ultimately, if the GSE's (or GE's?) can borrow at the same rates as the US Govt, then are only cementing their monopoly in the mortgage market. The market is not going to die tomorrow. And if the government is the only one making these loans - that too to the best customers, then it IS a money making business (unless they are armtwisted into some new 'affordable housing' measures and/or diversity lending.)

17

Posted by diablo, Sep 07, 2008 4:29PM

The plan establishes a Gov Sponsored Enterprise Credit Facility (GSECF). You say yes the FNMA and the FMAC need this. But hold it. The facility is also available to the Federal Home Loan Banks. Collateral for those loans will be MBS issued by fannie and freddie and advances made byt the Federal Home Loan Banks. Remember Counrywide got about $50 billion from the FHLBs. I could be wrong with that figure, but here's more info:

http://mises.org/story/2772
The Federal Home Loan Banks to the Rescue!

Daily Article by John Paul Koning | Posted on 11/19/2007

18

Posted by guest, Sep 07, 2008 5:04PM

not sure they will make that much money. the spreads will shrink all right, but it'll be because 10yr collapse.

19

Posted by Joseph di Jersey City, Sep 07, 2008 5:11PM

I find the term "conservatorship" interesting in terms of what it means for an individual to be "conserved". Typically this happens when a person loses all competence to manage their own affairs, for example as a result of Alzheimer's or traumatic brain injury.

Some have previously pointed out the moral hazard of an implied U.S. government backing of a private entity's debt. This has been to no avail due to their huge lobbying efforts. It's too bad (but predictable) that it took a crisis to have this addressed. Interestingly, the 11:00 am announcement mentioned that lobbying efforts are to cease immediately.

20

Posted by guest, Sep 07, 2008 5:15PM

@1: It goes to hell in a handbasket.....fast.

TOGFD

21

Posted by guest, Sep 07, 2008 6:28PM

Well so much for the market going to hell. DJ futures up 250 at this point and S&P futures up 35 pts.

22

Posted by bbishop, Sep 07, 2008 7:02PM

does this bailout mean that the definition of "too big to fail" has shifted, and that now a failure of a merrill or a lehman would tolerable?

23

Posted by Investorcluzo, Sep 07, 2008 7:29PM

has anyone done the math here? fnm has $21 bn of pfd - given that those securities will no longer pay a dividend, it should essentially trade as a zero coupon bond - unfortunately, (I haven't looked at all the filings) the maturity dates are well into the future - so they should now be classified as level III. that said, the amount is hardly enough to "bring down the banks". the bigger issue would have been the debt which is $800 billion as of june 30. with a government guaranty, there is a collective sigh of relief among the holders of those securities (there's a reason bill gross is smiling). for those keeping score at home fre has $14 bn of pfd with $835 bn of debt.

bottom line, there's a reason the market futures are up. if $1.6 trillion of debt (which investors ASSumed was government quality) had been been left hanging in the wind, financial armageddon would have come on monday.

@3 - the fed has warrants for 80% of the stock ("at a normal price" -whatever that is), how can the fnm/fre possibly trade as normal tomorrow. we're talking serious dilution.

24

Posted by KevinB, Sep 07, 2008 10:03PM

@13:

Congratulations, sir (or madam). You are the first person I have seen use the term "enormity" correctly in approximately a decade.

25

Posted by guest, Sep 08, 2008 2:31AM

KevinB -- @13 here. Thanks for the compliment. I'll try to keep my word usage up to the level of your standards.

26

Posted by guest, Sep 08, 2008 12:01PM

Wow I just made a boat load out of FNM & FRE's failure. We shorts are saving the markets and making it more efficient.

27

Posted by guest, Sep 08, 2008 12:02PM

I love seeing freddie and fannie trading like penny stocks. f*in' awesome

28

Posted by guest, Sep 09, 2008 2:07AM

Is David Moffett related to Craig Moffett of Bernstein/BCG fame?

29

Posted by Rod, Sep 09, 2008 10:07AM

Does anyone know why FNM was holding $192bn of their own 'Fannie Mae MBS' under 'Investments in securities' at the end of June '08 representing 22% of their assets of $886bn??

30

Posted by dorothy, Nov 12, 2008 10:55PM

hahahaha! you guys are hilarious! to see a funny spoof on fannie mae you gotta see fanny mae feelgood! the outta work ceo on http://www.iget2work.com
she doesn't have a clue ... neither does paulson. and the scariest thing was greenspan testifying in front of the senate saying that 'he doesn't understand what's happening to the stock market.' now THAT's frightening! enjoy some laughs at that site! it's funny.

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