Opening Bell: 9.17.08

slipnslide.jpgStock futures slip after U.S. government's AIG move (Marketwatch)
And this is the thanks the government gets. You hammer out a last minute deal to save the entire financial system, prevent it from melting down and guaranteeing our return to gold-based money and investors don't even appreciate it. Instead they sell off a little more. AIG is down a bit too, though not that much (per muted CNBC), a testament to how well the market seems to have priced things out in the end. Also according to muted CNBC (just going on the ticker at the bottom): Charlie Gasparino says Morgan Stanley is not in merger talks, but that there have been some discussions about whether it would be necessary (in theory). Also we just saw that General Mills, the cereal company, beat earnings. Again, that's straight from the tube to you.

Asian markets mixed after US bails out insurer AIG (AP)
Meanwhile, it's the same kind of mixed reaction in Asia.

HBOS, Lloyds TSB in Merger Talks (WSJ)
Groping for flotillas isn't limited to US financial concerns. Evidently UK mortgage giant HBOS and TSB and in pretty serious merger talks. The Journal (citing sources) says a deal could come within the hour. If it happens before we're done writing this, we'll try to make a note of it.

AIG CEO Willumstad to be replaced by ex-Allstate boss - WSJ (Marketwatch)
Getting the CEO nod weill evidently be ex-Allstate CEO Edward Liddy. Seeing as "The American Taxpayer" now owns 79.99999 percent of AIG, shouldn't the job go to some regular Joe. Perhaps they could hold a contest. But really, the guy could stand up and say stuff like "I don't know much about Wall Street, but I do know that I never spend more than I have in my account, and my only debt is my mortgage." That's just the kind of regular guy horse sense we need.

Russian Markets Halted as Emergency Funding Fails to Halt Rout (Bloomberg)
Kinda feel sorry for the Russians here... they're taking all the world news even worse than we are. Cheer up guys. Two days in a row Russian markets have been halted, following a 17 percent, then a 10 percent decline in stocks. The collapse in the energy markets is making things even worse for them. This leads us to a new theory of renewed Russian geopolitical aggression -- It's all about oil, but not in the way you think: Mainly they just want to start trouble, because commodities tend to spike during trouble. They don't care about what they own, or what's in the borders. It's just about inducing the kind of chaos that typically might lead to an oil price rise.

Samsung makes $5.85 billion bid for SanDisk (MarketWatch)
Another deal that will get absolutely zero media attention.... Samsung has made a $5.85 billion offer for Sandisk, the maker of those little memory cards you stick in cameras and certain cell phones. And though it represents a mammoth premium, Sandisk has said no. But really, it's hard to see them getting out of this, given how much they'd be walking away from. The one possibility is if they have another offer lined up (Toshiba is the big name being thrown out there), in which case they're just waiting for a bidding war to emerge. Either way, it looks like Sic Transit Sandisk fairly soon. You care so much.

The Paulson Doctrine: An Uncertain Prescriptive for Uncertain Times (Information Arbitrage)
Both Obama and McCain need to be asked their views on the Paulson Doctrine of financial bailouts. Not there's one answer or anything or that this is a phrase. But it would be a Rorschach test to see what they could come up with and to see how well they've been paying attention things, which would be a worthwhile exercise, no doubt.

Turmoil presents opening for Obama (FT)
Does it? We're not so sure. Ok, it might be able to present an opening, but whether he can crawl through it is another manner. McCain has done a great job of separating himself from Bush (he's just not Bush III). So laying all this at his feat will be tough. Still, as we've suggested elsewhere, Obama should really pound on his comments about Wall St. 'breaking the social contract between capitalism and the people' which is such a pile of untramelled gobbldygook, that it really is begging for someone to take him to the cleaners over it.

Comments

1

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 7:26AM

quickster looking tasty this morn. first.

2

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 7:31AM

Jesus Fucking Christ... Goldman is has taken over the fucking economy (again) and now Paulson is divying up the prime real estate among his cronies. Clearly the Russian economy is tanking because they now face competition in the state cleptocracy market space from the US.

Liddy is one Paulson's old Board Members from GS, no doubt Chris Cole, Chris Flowers or Ken Wilson will be pulling this monkey's strings. I'm sure they'll siphon off the good assets into Goldman subsidiaries and leave the new shareholders with the turds.

I hope the shorts take GS out before, the SEC re-implement idiot protection plan, er short selling rules.

3

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 7:34AM

$85 billion for 80% of 2.7 bn shares outstanding = $31.61 per share.
Nice.

4

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 7:38AM

Sorry. Increaing share count for 80% dilution = 13.4 bn shares outtanding * 80% and using this number to divide $85 billion = $7.90 per share. Still a homerun for tax payer.

5

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 8:01AM

#3,4 The $85 B is a loan and does not put any valuation on what shares should be worth.

6

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 8:06AM

Dont mess with Russians, pal!

7

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 8:09AM

The market is taking this poorly because the terms of the "loan" smell like de facto conservatorship.

AIG looks majorly screwed up, possibly worse than people were thinking.

8

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 8:11AM

With all the shit going down now, I bet that when congress gets their hands on old Dick Fuld, they make his mother sit in the front row, to watch them give him the business

9

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 8:21AM

Hey, take a look at the chart in this trade story, its hilarious.

http://tfpoi.com/2008/09/16/i-hate-charlie-gasporinosic-or-why-my-worst-trade-ever-turned-into-somewhere-around-my-2nd-best-day/

10

Posted by Covey01, Sep 17, 2008 8:26AM

Don't you think we are all a little bit responsible for this mess? Greed, GAAP loop-holes, products which were created to gain more wealth but which had no realistic basis (leverage and absurd ratings). I am partially to blame. I have got to review my principles and values again. Work is not as fun as it used to be!

11

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 8:35AM

@10

Don't be a bitch. if you're too stupid to realize that the more complicated an instrument is the less people know what its worth and the easier it is to dupe people into buying it, then no amount of soul searching is going to compensate for your missing faculties.

Just hang it up get a job teaching, 3rd, public school. We're not savin the freakin' manatees here pal.

12

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 8:39AM

Fortune magazine, for all you financial decision making needs:

"Wall Street analysts have constructed fancy models to try to figure out how much of a premium AIG shares should fetch in the post-Greenberg era, if any. But their numbers are at best educated guesses. What's clear is that the stock is cheap, trading for 12 times estimated 2007 earnings, close to its historical low. And growth prospects are attractive, with profits projected to increase 13 percent annually for the next few years."

http://money.cnn.com/popups/2006/fortune/invguide_stocks/index.html

SPODE.

13

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 8:41AM

Manatee don't need saving anyway... they're quite tasty I hear.

14

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 8:46AM

Don't knock the manatee. Models in bikinis like playing with cute animals.

-

You idiots from the Yahoo board need to go back to typing SHORT THIS OVERPRICED PIIIIIG!!!! This is not the sort of transaction you can model on the back of your hand while drooling on the keyboard. The government made a few new rules here that I guarantee you haven't see before, and you have no idea how they will play out.

AIG downgraded to WTF.

15

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 8:47AM

@#10...

Good post. If you're not joking, I believe you're on the right track.

@#11 = ShitStain.

The Guy from Delaware

16

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 8:48AM

"When the market for risky mortgages collapsed earlier this year, credit in general got squeezed, and SIVs have suffered badly. Still, Peter Crane, president of Crane Data, which tracks money-market mutual funds, says he doesn't think this will hurt the average money-market client. The banks that use SIVs are big institutions with too much at stake to let this extremely popular type of investment go sour. Money-market funds now total about $3 trillion."

"It's extremely unlikely that investors would be impacted," Crane said.

Really?

17

Posted by whatelseisgoingon, Sep 17, 2008 8:48AM

@9

Worst blog post ever

18

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 8:50AM

Great Pair trade...

short manatees

Long dugongs

19

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 8:51AM

Where is Carney's daily diatribe about how freemarket capitalism is dead. Now it's germane.

20

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 8:51AM

@9, Listen, Jay Zalowitz, no one gives a fuck about you or your painfully unfunny blog, with your third-grade writing skills and your fourth-tier trading ability. I enjoy Tim Sykes' blog more than yours, and that's saying something, because I throw up in my mouth every time I see his smug, smirking face. Why don't you crawl into a hole and die already? Do us all a favor and don't blog about it if you do.

21

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 8:56AM

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/morgan-mulls-whether-remain-independent/story.aspx?guid=%7B79E9BC02%2DD70C%2D4E6B%2D992A%2D696599C5A9E5%7D&dist=hplatest

As Bess would say, holy fucking hell - MS going away too!

Joe how the fuck did you miss this in the opening bell shit above? For shame.

22

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 8:57AM

Option ARMs Reset Special Olympics 2010. Catch the spirit!

23

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 8:58AM

Joe, good to see you back.
Hope you had a good break.

24

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 9:12AM

Any bets on MS...

25

Posted by Covey01, Sep 17, 2008 9:14AM

@10 I was once like a boy like you......

@15 Absolutely straight up! We have got a whole lot of work ahead of us to repair the crap we created over the last 25 years.

26

Posted by Joe Weisenthal, Sep 17, 2008 9:15AM

@21

First of all, look at the timestamp on the article you mention. Second of all, i DID mention it, citing Gasparino talking on CNBC. But obviously, cause that's, you know TV and all, I couldn't link. But it's right there in the opening 'graph.

27

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 9:15AM

August housing numbers atrocious, only good to the extent that we do not need more houses. Bad to the extent that most of that market isn't interested in buying foreclosed properties.

Situation not improving.

28

Posted by bittergreen, Sep 17, 2008 9:17AM

I like the average joe idea.

I think the new CEO of AIG should be the winner of a reality television show. A panel of judges should include no less than: Mark Swartz, Jeff Skilling, John Merriwether, Henry Blodget, Jim Cramer and Eliot Spitzer. Tasks should include: Structuring investment vehicles, CNBC talking head appearances regarding soundness of collateral, bridge playing tournaments, and making crab sandwiches.

29

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 9:18AM

Touche Joe. I don't read stuff when I see Gasbagarino.

30

Posted by bittergreen, Sep 17, 2008 9:21AM

I like the average joe idea.

I think the new CEO of AIG should be the winner of a reality television show. A panel of judges should include no less than: Mark Swartz, Jeff Skilling, John Merriwether, Henry Blodget, Jim Cramer and Eliot Spitzer. Tasks should include: Structuring investment vehicles, CNBC talking head appearances regarding soundness of collateral, bridge playing tournaments, and making crab sandwiches.

31

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 9:24AM

Anyone seen MS CDS....?

32

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 9:42AM

#9-

As a professional trader, I have some advice for you. I applaud the fact that your participating in the noblest prefession on earth (prop trading), but I think you approach may be fundementally flawed. Looking at the chart, it seems like you put this on with a profit target of about a dollar, but it's not clear where you'd stop yourself out if this trade didn't work out. It is clear that whatever this level was, it is larger than your profit target. This will prove diasterous in the long run. I'd recommend you go into each trade knowing exactly where you'll get out whether the trade goes for you or against you, and make sure you're making more money on your wins than you lose on your losses. I hope this helps. Keep fighting the good fight.

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