Wild day, no deal (Politico)
We're still really confused by what's going on. They keep saying the deal is dead (fair enough), but it's the Republican reps who are recalcitrant, but the Democrats have enough votes to pass it on their own, right? So why don't the Dems -- if they believe in it -- just pass the damn thing. You know, man up. Anyway, apparently Treas. Sec. Hank Paulson actually got down on one knee in front of Speaker Pelosi. How odd.
Asian markets drop amid reports of U.S. bailout plan stalling (CBC)
Yeah, nobody in any market is going to be happy for awhile until they just go ahead and do something. Asian markets fell last night, as it became obvious that they're farther away from a deal now than they have been yet. It's a good thing McCain suspended his campaign, so politics wouldn't interfere. That sounds sarcastic, though actually, we're happy that they haven't ramrodded some nonsense through all the name of bipartisanship, and the need to wreck the rule of law in times of crisis.
Sarkozy Stresses Global Financial Overhaul (NYT)
The Europeans are LOVING all of our problems, which is fine, since we've been known to laugh at them from time to time. Like, did you know that in Germany, because of socialized medicine, some dentists office have equipment from the 70s? HAHAHA. Anyway, Sarkozy says the age of global unregulated markets was over. Good for him. Also in Germany, a Minister said the age of "Anglo-Saxon banking" with its "fixation on returns" is over.
Money-Market Rates Rise Globally as U.S. Talks on Bailout Stall (Bloomberg)
Of course, they're having their own problems over there, in the land of the Third Way. Interbank lending rates in Europe have spiked to their highest rate since the Euro was formed. One analyst called it a total breakdown of interbank lending. It's like Warren Buffett said on CNBC the other day: The economy is like a bathtup: Can't have warm water in the back and cold up front.
Survivor: theoretical physics (Information Processing)
Wall St. has long been a home to physicists that are more interested in dollars than reconciling quantum and astro physics. So with Wall St. jobs growing scarce, will we suddenly get some breakthroughs in the realm of the theoretical physics? It seems tough. Positions are still hella scarce -- particularly the cushy tenure track ones at prestigious universities. A hedge fund still seems like a more promising career choice, after reading this.
Beavers ride Rodgers' 186 yards to stunner over No. 1 Trojans (ESPN)
One word: Awesome. One other word: Hook 'em.
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 7:31AM
Morgan Stanley is going DOWN
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fc0e74be-8b43-11dd-b634-0000779fd18c.html
Either that, or the FT is now publishing 70% rumors instead of 25%.
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 7:35AM
Steve Bartman:Chicago Cubs :: Dickie Fuld:Lehman Brothers
Posted by AJ , Sep 26, 2008 7:39AM
Is it unfair for me to blame the bailout failing on McCain? It seems like they had a tentative agreement before he showed up and inspired House Republicans to balk.
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 7:41AM
When McCain looks directly into the camera lens he looks like the Antichrist. That can't be good for the economy.
I'm sure the History Channel is already tying McCain, the Fin implosion, numerology and Rasputin to McCain in a documentary to run along with their Mysteries of the Bible series.
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 7:45AM
"So why don't the Dems -- if they believe in it -- just pass the damn thing."
Because everybody knows that the American public is 90% against the Paulson plan.
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 8:01AM
The American public has been brainwashed by this populist bullshit. I can't believe it, but I agree with Cramer on this. Just pass the fucking thing, or we're in big trouble. The market is broken, it needs to be fixed ASAP.
Oh, and echoes of Japan... the t-bill yield went negative this morning.
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 8:06AM
THIS IS AMERICA DAMMIT! WE GOT OUR RIGHTS! (turns to spit on floor)
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 8:07AM
Screw you joe for ripping on the trojans...
FIGHT ON!!!
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 8:09AM
Democrats aren't in lockstep on this one any more than the Republicans are. The press only interviews the banking committee members, who are behind the plan for the most part and the leadership of which is Democratic, and that makes it appear all Dems are for it. It would be just the opposite if the 2006 elections hadn't happened. Why are we having to explain this to you?
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 8:15AM
Just goes to show that a Trojan is no match for a motivated Beaver.
Posted by cheesedog , Sep 26, 2008 8:21AM
Wachovia CDS trading pts upfront. Unbelievable. Morgan Stanley trading pts upfront. This is getting crazy. That merger may happen in court.
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 8:23AM
Too long, didn't read.
Posted by cheesedog , Sep 26, 2008 8:24AM
That Too long, didnt read shit gets funnier every time. Seriously. Keep doing it. Do you do the Wave at sporting events?
Posted by chernevik , Sep 26, 2008 8:25AM
If the Democrats take responsibility for a risky and wildly unpopular Wall Street bailout, they open up a lot of scenarios for losing Congress. Never mind Paulson and Bush, they're gone in three months, and getting away from Bush on domestic policy is hardly a political loser anyway.
Without the House GOP, the political risks to the Democrats are huge, and politicians hate risk. I don't think there's a deal without the House minority.
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 8:33AM
Texas sucks
Posted by RamblinWreck , Sep 26, 2008 8:35AM
@10, for the win.
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 8:35AM
Wow. Santelli just went ballistic.
--CS
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 8:36AM
I don't know if the Democrats actually have enough votes to pass this thing - whatever it is - over full Republican opposition. Lots of flaming libs don't like this, for the same reasons conservatives don't, just in different terminology.
I personally believe that this historical determinism is bullshit. It's already too late for this to make a difference. Who says that this is actually in time?
Main Street simply has no idea how much this is going to hurt.
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 8:37AM
Does anyone really care what the public thinks about this plan? I doubt very many people have more than a superficial understanding of the situation, the plan, and its ramifications. No one who votes for this is going to lose a house seat if they spin it like the Iraq war: this is a very serious threat, the plan will pay for itself, and we will be welcomed by the credit markets with open arms, flowers and dates.
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 8:37AM
"The American public has been brainwashed by this populist bullshit."
Well, their money is being used.
Trust me, the folks who got sub prime loans do not pay a dime in federal taxes (I was one of them in 2005)
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 8:39AM
Who said today was "bank failure friday"?
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 8:40AM
Wow. Santelli just walked off.
--CS
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 8:40AM
Wow, Santelli walked out.
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 8:44AM
What is happening ? Who is santelli ? CNBC guy ?
WTF if he walks out ?
Posted by KevinB , Sep 26, 2008 8:49AM
The 3rd guy (the trader) in the threesome on CNBC just wouldn't shut up; I don't blame Santelli for taking a hike.
@10 - Beautiful! Now I know what I've been searching for - a motivated beaver!
Posted by diablo , Sep 26, 2008 8:51AM
Santelli walked out? How, why?
Anyway, there is opposition in principle about the bailout from both sides, liberals and conservatives. The public also has an instinct on when they are getting ripped off, don't each one of you have that also? So public opposition is getting louder and clearer and it makes the House run around in circles scared about the elections. It's true that the Congresscritters have been getting a lot of negative feedback about the plan, just check with your local Congresscritter.
The irony of this for the House Republicans is that even if they survive this year, by sinking the plan they are going to face very organized primary challenges from their money men in 2010. They are pissing off the lobbyists big time and they are going to pay for it.
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 8:53AM
did any of you assclowns talking trash about "populist bullshit" stop to think that if this BS plan passes we're going to crater the friggin dollar? Not to mention that by "opening up clogged credit lines" we're just going to enable more of the same fucked up borrowing that went on before?
Face it -- there's just too friggin much debt out there. The last thing we need is to get joe sixpack further in hock.
The system, as is, is fuxored.
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 8:54AM
@20
Elaborate
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 8:55AM
Broadly Street Journal
Sep 26, 2008
".MPROX surprises some traders"
The once-obscure index .MPROX, which represents John McCain's physical proximity to Federal government finance negotiations, now has every trader's attention. .MPROX increases the closer John McCain gets to negotiations. Recently .MPROX has been highly correlated with short-term Treasury prices, and it's been inversely correlated with commercial paper prices. Additional research indicates .MPROX is now correlated with the TED spread as well. According to Harry Ness, chief economist at Indy Walincoln Brothers, ".MPROX's traditionally high beta relative to financials has dropped significantly, and traders I've talked to are trying to collar it. Many are fearful. I see an accumulation of short positions with expirations in November and December, but the volatility -- clearly an indication of panic in this market -- makes pricing almost impossible relative to 7- and 30-day [Treasury bills]." Treasury Sec. Paulson reportedly said the secondary market for .MPROX-based securities was the primary driver for adjustments in the yield curve; however, in testimony before the Senate Banking Committee this week, Paulson argued that .MPROX should play no meaningful role in the current crisis.
Posted by diablo , Sep 26, 2008 8:57AM
The CDS market is a gambling house and thinly traded, who knows where and how. I can't believe some give it so much credibility. So someone loses a CDS bet, does it mean that they are going to collect on that bet? Really?
On the other hand, aren't we getting closer to Sachovia?
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 8:57AM
@27
Fuck yeah. Let's just let Wall St deal with the problems themselves.
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 8:59AM
Booyah! A Goldmander get owned.
In the Roosevelt Room after the session, the Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson Jr., literally bent down on one knee as he pleaded with Nancy Pelosi, the House Speaker, not to “blow it up” by withdrawing her party’s support for the package over what Ms. Pelosi derided as a Republican betrayal.
“I didn’t know you were Catholic,” Ms. Pelosi said, a wry reference to Mr. Paulson’s kneeling, according to someone who observed the exchange. She went on: “It’s not me blowing this up, it’s the Republicans.”
Mr. Paulson sighed. “I know. I know.”
Posted by fxquant , Sep 26, 2008 9:01AM
So long as Pelosi didn't get down on both knees in front of Paulson we're alright.
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 9:02AM
Hey, what is morgan stanleys quote on the CDS market ?
Posted by diablo , Sep 26, 2008 9:03AM
@32
I'm hoping Bess has a version of that incident.
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 9:09AM
@30 - CDS is much more liquid than the cash bonds they reference. You clearly don't work in a fixed income role and if you do, please come back and say that someone on your desk played a joke on you when you left to go to the bathroom and didn't lock your computer.
Posted by Tapecracker , Sep 26, 2008 9:15AM
Last night I had a dream...I saw Howie Mendel hosting a Congressional version of 'Deal or No Deal'... Bush at the button...prominent repubs on the sidelines like 'family' members - each giving completely different advice to Bush... the Banker calling every 6 seconds.... laughed myself awake!
Great fodder for SNL if they're listening!
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 9:18AM
@36
30 here. I left to go to the bathroom and didn't lock my computer.
Posted by diablo , Sep 26, 2008 9:40AM
@36
Liquidity is a coward. This thing is exploding. Talk to the AIG guys.
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 9:46AM
@39 - I never said it was rational or brave, only more liquid.
Posted by chernevik , Sep 26, 2008 10:03AM
"The irony of this for the House Republicans is that even if they survive this year, by sinking the plan they are going to face very organized primary challenges from their money men in 2010. They are pissing off the lobbyists big time and they are going to pay for it."
Go ask Gingrich about his relationship with the Establishment when he took over the House in 1994, and the GOP's relationship when they lost it in 2006.
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 10:12AM
This pig was dead before McCain got there. I don't blame the House Republicans for balking - the deal stands to send millions to ACORN, the left-wing group with a history of registering dead people to vote.
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/09/26/the-democratic-acorn-bailout/
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 10:34AM
Why don't you convince the Republicans to do likewise. They caused this through their excess deregulation and lack of oversight. The Democrats have every reason to make sure that the Republicans own this mess.
Posted by guest , Sep 26, 2008 11:18AM
The Democrats can pass it on their own procedurally, but not politically.
They know if they pass this thing without the Republicans, McCain will have ads on TV by tomorrow saying "the evil Democrats gave YOUR money to WALL STREET!"