Totally Unfounded Rumors: Midday Ratings Summary

Posted by Equity Private, Sep 17, 2008, 12:04pm

cuomo.jpgIt is another edition of the totally unfounded rumor ratings summary. Lots of developments since the last installment, of course.

How are you the reader expected to know which rumors are ok to spread overtly and which require the use of special clandestine services tools like a hoarse whisper outside of Dick Fuld's office? Our ratings system to the rescue!

Rating / Description

- Investment Grade-
AAA / Very Reliable
AA / Reliable
A / Mostly Reliable
BBB / Might Be True

-Speculative-
BB / Sketchy
B / Countrywide Sketchy
CCC / Unlikely
CC / Really Unlikely
C / Heard it From The Iraqi Minister of Information
D / Heard it From A Lehman Conference Call

BRK AIG (Berkshire in talks to buy AIG): B (downgrade from BBB)

GS MS (Goldman in talks to buy Morgan Stanley): C (downgrade from CC)

LEH Bond Salesmen (Lehman Broker Dealer Still Operating): D (coverage terminated)

BCS LEH (Barclays in talks to buy some of Lehman): AAA (coverage terminated)

MS = 0 (Morgan Stanley Liquidating pre-merger): coverage initiated with: D

Got any we should initiate coverage on?

3Recommend this! 60Comments

Comments

1

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:06PM

are GS and MS in this bad a shape, stocks are getting SMOKED

2

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:08PM

You forgot WTF on your scale.

3

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:09PM

FWIW: Neub Bermann switched to Ridge Clearing effective today.

4

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:09PM

1-mo now at .08%

This should help the banks right!?!

5

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:10PM

Citi buys MS

6

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:11PM

If Goldman gets bought what should 2nd year analysts be expecting in terms of bonuses

7

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:12PM

If Goldman gets bought, what can 2nd year analysts expect in terms of bonuses?

8

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:15PM

If you are a 2nd year analyst at goldman what kind of stock options can you be expecting?

9

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:15PM

Great work EP. Ratings are awesome.

10

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:15PM

is #6 serious about bonuses?

11

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:16PM

4,
The japanese have been thinking like that since about '89.

12

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:18PM

Where is WM in all this? No rumors there?

13

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:19PM

GS to be sold to China for a single Yaun. Good news is the Yaun will be worth $80b.

14

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:19PM

@11

LOL

However, Japanese banks are posied to strike right now

15

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:19PM

fed taking equities as collateral = fed a margin lender on the equity markets=fed long stocks

profits (or losses) from fed flow through to the Treasury=Federal Government directly exposed to losses in the stock market

16

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:21PM

Didn't Cramer say GS was going to $330/shr in 2007?

17

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:23PM

Swiss banking authorities are considering forcing a merger of UBS with Credit Suisse

18

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:25PM

Didn't GS say oil was going to $200/b in 3Q08?

19

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:25PM

Dimon is pissed about being stuck with Bear and wants to reunite the House of Morgan.

20

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:25PM

GS might go sub-100...this is a bit drastic for a single day don't you think?

21

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:25PM

AIG did more financial damage than Hurricanes Ike and Gustav.

22

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:27PM

#6-there wont be any 2nd year analysts - want to know what your bonus is going to be- i don't know what the max weekly unemployment check is but-there's your bonus

23

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:29PM

max unemployment is something like $450/week. Taxable.

GS is a double digit stock. wow.

24

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:32PM

GS must buy itself with one of its own funds to survive

25

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:33PM

I love Cramer ! He is the best wrong way indicator we have.

JC how about we initate on cramer. We can rate his calls, bed, really bad, horrible, and WTF (for those companies that he said were screaming buys that go TU w/i a year of his call).

GS under $100. Cramer may have a stroke on this news.

26

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:34PM

WaMu and JP Morgan? Lloyds and HBOS?

27

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:35PM

Everybody remembers 87 where if you sold you lost, if stayed you did fine, and if you bought you did pretty well.

So now we have the gradual sell-off that turns into a panic, and waves of people trying to take the pain and then giving in and selling, which keeps on driving them down.

This is no 87 crash!

This is going to be like watching the Titanic sink, slow and unbelievable at first, and then fast and final.

28

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:35PM

What does Spitzer think of all this? Would he have prevented the AIG bail pkg?
Just imagine how much fun he would have had if he was still in office.

29

Posted by diablo, Sep 17, 2008 12:35PM

GS in Shotgun Wedding with WB: BB

30

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:36PM

They just installed locks on the windows in my office

31

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:36PM

How about this for a new rumor...

Pretty soon there won't be any I-Banks left for all you turds to work at.

BTW, where's that "bulgingbracket" clown? How's he doing now that GS is in a steep dive?

The Guy from Delaware

32

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:37PM

27 Final? so its never coming back? Don't think so. It always comes back.

33

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:37PM

This is the first day I haven't been horny in about 8.5 years.

This is getting serious.

34

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:42PM

Deutsche buys MS

- old europe -

35

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:42PM

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gs

36

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:42PM

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gs

37

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:43PM

#32:

Tell that to the shareholders of BSC, and buy a few shares of FNM, FRE, and AIG while you are at it.

38

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:44PM

You guys for the most part are pretty fucked. The reason half of you got onboard was for the sick compensation/bonus. It looks like the gravy train has been derailed.

IMO, it all went wrong after most of your employers, in need of warm bodies to man keyboards, lowered the bar started hiring every hot shot grad.

This of coruse, was not a failure from the bottom up. Since keyboard monkeys are just that. But, it was at that point that I knew that shyt was going down in the near future

39

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:53PM

What do we think the signficance of this is?

http://www.reservefunds.com/pdfs/Press%20Release%202008_0916.pdf?scp=2&sq=eric%20dash&st=cse

40

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 12:54PM

yeah, def WaMu and JP Morgan (obvi)

41

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 1:04PM

Bonus = $364.50/week (after tax)

42

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 1:05PM

Bonus = $364.50/week (after taxes)

43

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 1:05PM

What amazes me is that NO ONE is taking a second to think about what's really going on. Do they really think that merging all the investment banks with commercial banks would solve all the problems? Can you really see Merrill's bankers succeeding under the clusterfuck that is BofA? Citi is an universal bank and is still facing its share of problems. The primary problem is a loss of confidence and investor fear, and that is not something we can fix by simply acquiring a deposit base.

Calling it now, 5 years down the line, Merrill will either seek a spin-off or all of its banking talents would just leave for smaller shops.

44

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 1:07PM

That seems low im talking about Goldman Sachs bonuses not Wamu you idiots

45

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 1:07PM

wachovia and goldman.

46

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 1:13PM

What amazes me is that NO ONE is taking a second to think about what's really going on. Do they really think that merging all the investment banks with commercial banks would solve all the problems? Can you really see Merrill's bankers succeeding under the clusterfuck that is BofA? Citi is an universal bank and is still facing its share of problems. The primary problem is a loss of confidence and investor fear, and that is not something we can fix by simply acquiring a deposit base.

Calling it now, 5 years down the line, Merrill will either seek a spin-off or all of its banking talents would just leave for smaller shops.

47

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 1:15PM

GS going private...confirmation?

48

Posted by KevinB, Sep 17, 2008 1:16PM

@27 -

This is more like 74 - the market just keeps grinding lower and lower.

When P/E's are back in single digits, and yields are 4% or more, that'll indicate a bottom. How long that will take is anybody's guess.

49

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 1:18PM

@16 - good memory. I believe CIBC also called $200

50

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 1:19PM

Government announcement: Now that AIG is the government's insurer of choice they will be managing the Medicare program.

I would rate this a pre-invasion C.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammed_Saeed_al-Sahaf

51

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 1:20PM

@18 not @16 .... @16 - good memory. I believe CIBC also called $200

52

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 1:24PM

@43 - right on. No one seems to remember that in the past, commercial banks like Citi and Wachovia had lost 3 times the market value that Lehman and Merrill had lost. I would argue that the market reaction is not a criticism of the broker-dealer model, but rather a criticism of some very bad bets that some firms made and, of course, pure fear. Don't fold MS and GS. And to hell with the media frenzy in this "who's next" game.

53

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 1:24PM

GS going -> 0 confirmation?

54

Posted by Anal_yst, Sep 17, 2008 1:32PM

Agreed with 52

Those who ask who's next fail to understand whats going on, and very clearly don't value their own futures in finance very much

55

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 1:38PM

Not confirmation of GS going private, but someone else on the Street just mentioned that very idea.

With their, ah, attitude on a merger with a commercial bank (F U) that actually makes some sense.

Initiate coverage at B, imo.

56

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 1:42PM

47 here, this from our EMC desk around noon, didn't know if anyone else had heard anything - agree with initiating coverage

57

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 1:48PM

54- Asking "whose next" is a valid question with banks like WAMU on the brink. Everyone is asking that question because nobody really knows what is happening or what will happen next. Wall Street is in the middle of a catastrophe and we are all trying to figure out what will happen next and where do we go from here. A lot of questions, ideas and blame is being thrown. Furthermore, none of us will understand what happened until it is all over- no matter who you are.

58

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 1:58PM

54- “The fear is who is next,” said John O’Brien, senior vice president at MKM Partners LLC in Cleveland. “It almost feels like people scour the books and say who is the next likely target that we can put a short on, and that spreads continuous fear.”

59

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 2:17PM

So #54, Mr. O'Brien is acting in accordance with a "who will be attacked next" mentality.

Attacked being the operative word here?

60

Posted by guest, Sep 17, 2008 2:27PM

@57 - it's a legit question until it becomes nothing more than witch hunt on Wall St. Are people seriously sitting down and analyzing the fundamentals of these firms? I doubt it. It's currently just a spreading mess of fear disguised as "asking a valid question".

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