It took a little work, but I can see now that we are totally, utterly screwed. I'm buying S&P 500 puts as I type this. The last time this happened the market was dead for years.
Graphic explanation after the jump.


Just imagine what will happen if they make the series.






Posted by guest , Sep 16, 2008 2:28PM
Amazing analysis!
Posted by guest , Sep 16, 2008 2:30PM
Ohh haha - I get it - a joke. I like those!
Posted by guest , Sep 16, 2008 2:33PM
GS is going to Zero. The cubies on the other hand are under valued.
Posted by Rex Bannister , Sep 16, 2008 2:35PM
hey chicago, what do you say, go cubs go!
Posted by guest , Sep 16, 2008 2:36PM
I'm a hedge fund manager and I'd like to know what an "S&P 500 put" is.
Posted by Rex Bannister , Sep 16, 2008 2:36PM
oh yeah, and fuck this white sox. eat shit ozzie.
Posted by Dan Daoust , Sep 16, 2008 2:36PM
When the Bills win, the economy tanks. It's science.
Posted by finance_baller , Sep 16, 2008 2:37PM
long ep, short cubs
Posted by Debter , Sep 16, 2008 2:38PM
14:29 *JPMORGAN ADVANCED MORE THAN $87 BILLION TO LEHMAN THIS
WEEK
14:30 *JPMORGAN ADVANCES WERE MADE TO AVOID MARKET `DISRUPTION'
14:29 *JPMORGAN ADVANCES WERE MADE AFTER LEHMAN'S SEPT. 15
BANKRUPTCY
14:29 *JPMORGAN ADVANCED $87 BILLION AND A `COMPARABLE AMOUNT'
14:29 *JPMORGAN'S ADVANCES SECURED BY LEHMAN COLLATERAL
14:29 *JPMORGAN CHASE WAS REPAID BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF
N.Y.
Posted by guest , Sep 16, 2008 2:38PM
Oh why do you hate America so?
Posted by guest , Sep 16, 2008 2:39PM
I feel bad that Houston got destroyed by a hurricane, and then got 1 hit in two days versus the Cubs. Does it get any worse?
Posted by guest , Sep 16, 2008 2:39PM
Run for the hills!!!
Posted by Debter , Sep 16, 2008 2:40PM
*FED RECONSIDERS STANCE ON HELPING AIG, PERSON SAYS
I don't know who "person" is, just a BB headline
Posted by guest , Sep 16, 2008 2:41PM
@ 13, yeah, some headline. In red highlites, no less.
***
who's the genius that bot spooz puts at the top of this thread?
stick to selling umbrellas.
Posted by ep , Sep 16, 2008 2:42PM
Here ya go, "hedge fund manager":
Product Specifications
S&P 500 ® Index Options
Symbol:
SPX
Underlying:
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks from a broad range of industries. The component stocks are weighted according to the total market value of their outstanding shares. The impact of a component's price change is proportional to the issue's total market value, which is the share price times the number of shares outstanding. These are summed for all 500 stocks and divided by a predetermined base value. The base value for the S&P 500 Index is adjusted to reflect changes in capitalization resulting from mergers, acquisitions, stock rights, substitutions, etc.
Index Components
Multiplier:
$100.
Premium Quote:
Stated in decimals. One point equals $100. Minimum tick for options trading below 3.00 is 0.05 ($5.00) and for all other series, 0.10 ($10.00).
Strike Prices:
In-,at- and out-of-the-money strike prices are initially listed. New series are generally added when the underlying trades through the highest or lowest strike price available.
Strike Price Intervals:
Five points. 25-point intervals for far months.
Expiration Months:
Three near-term months followed by three additional months from the March quarterly cycle (March, June, September and December).
Expiration Date:
Saturday following the third Friday of the expiration month.
Exercise Style:
European - SPX options generally may be exercised only on the last business day before expiration.
Last Trading Day:
Trading in SPX options will ordinarily cease on the business day (usually a Thursday) preceding the day on which the exercise-settlement value is calculated.
Settlement of Option Exercise:
The exercise-settlement value, SET, is calculated using the opening (first) reported sales price in the primary market of each component stock on the last business day (usually a Friday) before the expiration date. If a stock in the index does not open on the day on which the exercise & settlement value is determined, the last reported sales price in the primary market will be used in calculating the exercise-settlement value. The exercise-settlement amount is equal to the difference between the exercise- settlement value, SET, and the exercise price of the option, multiplied by $100. Exercise will result in delivery of cash on the business day following expiration.
Position and Exercise Limits:
No position and exercise limits are in effect. Each member (other than a market-maker) or member organization that maintains an end of day position in excess of 100,000 contracts in SPX (10 SPX LEAPS equals 1 SPX full value contract) for its proprietary account or for the account of a customer, shall report certain information to the Department of Market Regulation. The member must report information as to whether such position is hedged and, if so, a description of the hedge employed. A report must be filed when an account initially meets the aforementioned applicable threshold. Thereafter, a report must be filed for each incremental increase of 25,000 contracts. Reductions in an options position do not need to be reported. However, any significant change to the hedge must be reported.
Margin:
Purchases of puts or calls with 9 months or less until expiration must be paid for in full. Writers of uncovered puts or calls must deposit / maintain 100% of the option proceeds* plus 15% of the aggregate contract value (current index level x $100) minus the amount by which the option is out-of-the-money, if any, subject to a minimum for calls of option proceeds* plus 10% of the aggregate contract value and a minimum for puts of option proceeds* plus 10% of the aggregate exercise price amount. (*For calculating maintenance margin, use option current market value instead of option proceeds.) Additional margin may be required pursuant to Exchange Rule 12.10.
Cusip Number:
648815
Trading Hours:
8:30 a.m. - 3:15 p.m. Central Time (Chicago time).
Position and Exercise limits are subject to change.
Posted by guest , Sep 16, 2008 2:43PM
Sandwich boards for all
Posted by guest , Sep 16, 2008 2:44PM
# 7 Bills were 3-13 in 01, so theyre not good every recession
Posted by guest , Sep 16, 2008 2:44PM
ep, you can stop reading my blog now.
Posted by guest , Sep 16, 2008 2:45PM
Milt Pappas threw the last no-hitter for the Cubs 9/2/72.
Posted by guest , Sep 16, 2008 2:50PM
EP has been killing it this week.
Posted by guest , Sep 16, 2008 2:52PM
you go EP well said
Posted by ep , Sep 16, 2008 2:53PM
"Milt Pappas threw the last no-hitter for the Cubs 9/2/72."
The two no-hitters in short succession explains the long secular bear.
Posted by blndebnker , Sep 16, 2008 2:54PM
@9 - Ha that's awesome. Oh Jamie...what can't you do?
Posted by guest , Sep 16, 2008 3:10PM
EP,
Suggest you sell those puts. S&P 500 is up 1% right now. Markets like no rate cut and no bailout.
Posted by ep , Sep 16, 2008 3:11PM
"EP,
Suggest you sell those puts. S&P 500 is up 1% right now. Markets like no rate cut and no bailout."
Clearly, you haven't been looking at the no-hitter technicals.
Posted by guest , Sep 16, 2008 3:18PM
Is there any word on what Bonuses are going to look like next year?
Posted by guest , Sep 16, 2008 3:19PM
Is there any word on what Bonuses are going to look like next year?
Posted by onetwo , Sep 16, 2008 3:45PM
F(America)=1/Cubbies
Posted by guest , Sep 16, 2008 4:53PM
i just don't want the cubbies to win because their fans are degenerate drunks.
Posted by guest , Sep 16, 2008 4:53PM
i just don't want the cubbies to win because their fans are degenerate drunks.
Posted by guest , Sep 16, 2008 4:53PM
i just don't want the cubbies to win because their fans are degenerate drunks.
Posted by guest , Sep 16, 2008 5:30PM
uhhhhhhhhhh burt hooten didn't even throw the last cubs no-hitter. pappas threw one later in the same season, and uhhhhhhhhhhhh according to your graph the market shot up around the time he did it. are you, uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, retarded?
Posted by ep , Sep 17, 2008 12:04AM
"according to your graph the market shot up around the time he did it."
Oh yeah. "Shot up." From 975 to 1000. Whoo!
You should know that it was Hooten who started the beginning of the end. Real Cubs fans don't like to talk about Pappas's perfect game that was ruined by bad officiating causing a bullshit walk for the 27th batter he faced.
Posted by guest , Sep 19, 2008 2:05AM
The Cubs no hitter in '72 was pitched by Milt Pappas not Burt Hooton.
Posted by guest , Sep 19, 2008 6:11PM
Reminds me of the Mountain Goats song 'Cubs in Five':
They’re gonna find intelligent life up there on the moon.
And the Canterbury Tales will shoot up to the top of the best seller list
And stay there for 27 weeks.
And the Chicago Cubs will beat every team in the league,
And the Tampa Bay Bucs will make it the way to January,
And i will love you again.
I will love you, like i used to.
I will love you again.
I will love you, like i used to.
Then again, everything reminds me of a Mountain Goats song.