• 16 Sep 2008 at 2:24 PM

We Are Totally Screwed

It took a little work, but I can see now that we are totally, utterly screwed. I’m buying S&P 500 puts as I type this. The last time this happened the market was dead for years.
Graphic explanation after the jump.


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Just imagine what will happen if they make the series.

Comments (34)

  1. Posted by guest | September 16, 2008 at 2:28 PM

    Amazing analysis!

  2. Posted by guest | September 16, 2008 at 2:30 PM

    Ohh haha – I get it – a joke. I like those!

  3. Posted by guest | September 16, 2008 at 2:33 PM

    GS is going to Zero. The cubies on the other hand are under valued.

  4. Posted by Rex Bannister | September 16, 2008 at 2:35 PM

    hey chicago, what do you say, go cubs go!

  5. Posted by guest | September 16, 2008 at 2:36 PM

    I’m a hedge fund manager and I’d like to know what an “S&P 500 put” is.

  6. Posted by Rex Bannister | September 16, 2008 at 2:36 PM

    oh yeah, and fuck this white sox. eat shit ozzie.

  7. Posted by Dan Daoust | September 16, 2008 at 2:36 PM

    When the Bills win, the economy tanks. It’s science.

  8. Posted by finance_baller | September 16, 2008 at 2:37 PM

    long ep, short cubs

  9. Posted by Debter | September 16, 2008 at 2:38 PM

    14:29 *JPMORGAN ADVANCED MORE THAN $87 BILLION TO LEHMAN THIS
    WEEK
    14:30 *JPMORGAN ADVANCES WERE MADE TO AVOID MARKET `DISRUPTION’
    14:29 *JPMORGAN ADVANCES WERE MADE AFTER LEHMAN’S SEPT. 15
    BANKRUPTCY
    14:29 *JPMORGAN ADVANCED $87 BILLION AND A `COMPARABLE AMOUNT’
    14:29 *JPMORGAN’S ADVANCES SECURED BY LEHMAN COLLATERAL
    14:29 *JPMORGAN CHASE WAS REPAID BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF
    N.Y.

  10. Posted by guest | September 16, 2008 at 2:38 PM

    Oh why do you hate America so?

  11. Posted by guest | September 16, 2008 at 2:39 PM

    I feel bad that Houston got destroyed by a hurricane, and then got 1 hit in two days versus the Cubs. Does it get any worse?

  12. Posted by guest | September 16, 2008 at 2:39 PM

    Run for the hills!!!

  13. Posted by Debter | September 16, 2008 at 2:40 PM

    *FED RECONSIDERS STANCE ON HELPING AIG, PERSON SAYS
    I don’t know who “person” is, just a BB headline

  14. Posted by ep | September 16, 2008 at 2:42 PM

    Here ya go, “hedge fund manager”:
    Product Specifications
    S&P 500 ® Index Options
    Symbol:
    SPX
    Underlying:
    The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks from a broad range of industries. The component stocks are weighted according to the total market value of their outstanding shares. The impact of a component’s price change is proportional to the issue’s total market value, which is the share price times the number of shares outstanding. These are summed for all 500 stocks and divided by a predetermined base value. The base value for the S&P 500 Index is adjusted to reflect changes in capitalization resulting from mergers, acquisitions, stock rights, substitutions, etc.
    Index Components
    Multiplier:
    $100.
    Premium Quote:
    Stated in decimals. One point equals $100. Minimum tick for options trading below 3.00 is 0.05 ($5.00) and for all other series, 0.10 ($10.00).
    Strike Prices:
    In-,at- and out-of-the-money strike prices are initially listed. New series are generally added when the underlying trades through the highest or lowest strike price available.
    Strike Price Intervals:
    Five points. 25-point intervals for far months.
    Expiration Months:
    Three near-term months followed by three additional months from the March quarterly cycle (March, June, September and December).
    Expiration Date:
    Saturday following the third Friday of the expiration month.
    Exercise Style:
    European – SPX options generally may be exercised only on the last business day before expiration.
    Last Trading Day:
    Trading in SPX options will ordinarily cease on the business day (usually a Thursday) preceding the day on which the exercise-settlement value is calculated.
    Settlement of Option Exercise:
    The exercise-settlement value, SET, is calculated using the opening (first) reported sales price in the primary market of each component stock on the last business day (usually a Friday) before the expiration date. If a stock in the index does not open on the day on which the exercise & settlement value is determined, the last reported sales price in the primary market will be used in calculating the exercise-settlement value. The exercise-settlement amount is equal to the difference between the exercise- settlement value, SET, and the exercise price of the option, multiplied by $100. Exercise will result in delivery of cash on the business day following expiration.
    Position and Exercise Limits:
    No position and exercise limits are in effect. Each member (other than a market-maker) or member organization that maintains an end of day position in excess of 100,000 contracts in SPX (10 SPX LEAPS equals 1 SPX full value contract) for its proprietary account or for the account of a customer, shall report certain information to the Department of Market Regulation. The member must report information as to whether such position is hedged and, if so, a description of the hedge employed. A report must be filed when an account initially meets the aforementioned applicable threshold. Thereafter, a report must be filed for each incremental increase of 25,000 contracts. Reductions in an options position do not need to be reported. However, any significant change to the hedge must be reported.
    Margin:
    Purchases of puts or calls with 9 months or less until expiration must be paid for in full. Writers of uncovered puts or calls must deposit / maintain 100% of the option proceeds* plus 15% of the aggregate contract value (current index level x $100) minus the amount by which the option is out-of-the-money, if any, subject to a minimum for calls of option proceeds* plus 10% of the aggregate contract value and a minimum for puts of option proceeds* plus 10% of the aggregate exercise price amount. (*For calculating maintenance margin, use option current market value instead of option proceeds.) Additional margin may be required pursuant to Exchange Rule 12.10.
    Cusip Number:
    648815
    Trading Hours:
    8:30 a.m. – 3:15 p.m. Central Time (Chicago time).
    Position and Exercise limits are subject to change.

  15. Posted by guest | September 16, 2008 at 2:43 PM

    Sandwich boards for all

  16. Posted by guest | September 16, 2008 at 2:44 PM

    # 7 Bills were 3-13 in 01, so theyre not good every recession

  17. Posted by guest | September 16, 2008 at 2:44 PM

    ep, you can stop reading my blog now.

  18. Posted by guest | September 16, 2008 at 2:45 PM

    Milt Pappas threw the last no-hitter for the Cubs 9/2/72.

  19. Posted by guest | September 16, 2008 at 2:50 PM

    EP has been killing it this week.

  20. Posted by guest | September 16, 2008 at 2:52 PM

    you go EP well said

  21. Posted by ep | September 16, 2008 at 2:53 PM

    “Milt Pappas threw the last no-hitter for the Cubs 9/2/72.”
    The two no-hitters in short succession explains the long secular bear.

  22. Posted by blndebnker | September 16, 2008 at 2:54 PM

    @9 – Ha that’s awesome. Oh Jamie…what can’t you do?

  23. Posted by guest | September 16, 2008 at 3:10 PM

    EP,
    Suggest you sell those puts. S&P 500 is up 1% right now. Markets like no rate cut and no bailout.

  24. Posted by ep | September 16, 2008 at 3:11 PM

    “EP,
    Suggest you sell those puts. S&P 500 is up 1% right now. Markets like no rate cut and no bailout.”
    Clearly, you haven’t been looking at the no-hitter technicals.

  25. Posted by guest | September 16, 2008 at 3:18 PM

    Is there any word on what Bonuses are going to look like next year?

  26. Posted by guest | September 16, 2008 at 3:19 PM

    Is there any word on what Bonuses are going to look like next year?

  27. Posted by onetwo | September 16, 2008 at 3:45 PM

    F(America)=1/Cubbies

  28. Posted by guest | September 16, 2008 at 4:53 PM

    i just don’t want the cubbies to win because their fans are degenerate drunks.

  29. Posted by guest | September 16, 2008 at 4:53 PM

    i just don’t want the cubbies to win because their fans are degenerate drunks.

  30. Posted by guest | September 16, 2008 at 4:53 PM

    i just don’t want the cubbies to win because their fans are degenerate drunks.

  31. Posted by guest | September 16, 2008 at 5:30 PM

    uhhhhhhhhhh burt hooten didn’t even throw the last cubs no-hitter. pappas threw one later in the same season, and uhhhhhhhhhhhh according to your graph the market shot up around the time he did it. are you, uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, retarded?

  32. Posted by ep | September 17, 2008 at 12:04 AM

    “according to your graph the market shot up around the time he did it.”
    Oh yeah. “Shot up.” From 975 to 1000. Whoo!
    You should know that it was Hooten who started the beginning of the end. Real Cubs fans don’t like to talk about Pappas’s perfect game that was ruined by bad officiating causing a bullshit walk for the 27th batter he faced.

  33. Posted by guest | September 19, 2008 at 2:05 AM

    The Cubs no hitter in ’72 was pitched by Milt Pappas not Burt Hooton.

  34. Posted by guest | September 19, 2008 at 6:11 PM

    Reminds me of the Mountain Goats song ‘Cubs in Five’:
    They’re gonna find intelligent life up there on the moon.
    And the Canterbury Tales will shoot up to the top of the best seller list
    And stay there for 27 weeks.
    And the Chicago Cubs will beat every team in the league,
    And the Tampa Bay Bucs will make it the way to January,
    And i will love you again.
    I will love you, like i used to.
    I will love you again.
    I will love you, like i used to.
    Then again, everything reminds me of a Mountain Goats song.

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