Let's contemplate the worst case scenario for Lehman Brothers: what happens if we all pull into our desks on Monday morning to discover that there is no deal for Lehman. We've heard that the reluctance of Hank Paulson's Treasury Department to provide a backstop for the deal and the burden of due diligence pose a serious risk to a deal being executed. Could Lehman survive next week with out a deal in place? Could it survive Monday?
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Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 12:16PM
I would advise turning off your comment section for the weekend. Precisely for the reasons raised.
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 12:17PM
It will become increasingly insignificant...
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 12:19PM
Mayo, Shamwow & Co.
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 12:20PM
it depends on the impact of a ratings downgrade i suppose. They can probably meet their short-term liabilities, but i can imagine their borrowing costs will skyrocket even more.
certainly won't look pretty.
Posted by beentheredonethat , Sep 12, 2008 12:24PM
No, they would not survive Monday. Who would trade with them? Who would continue to hold the stock? Who employed there wouldn't take the first offer elsewhere? If there is no deal Sunday afternoon, even the specialist on the floor is calling in sick on Monday.....Why put yourself through that?
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 12:25PM
Until a white knight - or two steps in.
Listen, haters, Lehman will survive and grow. It's not going anywhere. LB is undervalued due to shorts and just continuing bad news. Is it over? No fucking way.
This is merely a reflection of the reorganization of the industry.
Deal with it.
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 12:25PM
Mayo, Shamwow & Co.
Posted by cheesedog , Sep 12, 2008 12:28PM
With access to the fed window, they will not go under. Someone will own this on Monday. Most likely BAC. If not, they live. Increasingly irrelevant. But they live. The circle-jerk over LEHs corpse is more disgusting every hour.
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 12:28PM
@6, when talking, please remove fuld's flacid penis from your mouth. i can't understand you!
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 12:28PM
Mayo, Shamwow & Co.
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 12:28PM
LEH yes. AIG...maybe.
Posted by RAW DOG , Sep 12, 2008 12:28PM
If the past 150 years is of any consequence, LEH will survive for many years to come. That being said, it won't survive Monday without a deal in place.
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 12:29PM
What does Sham-wow mean? Seriously.
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 12:31PM
@6 don't worry you'll find another backoffice job
Posted by cheesedog , Sep 12, 2008 12:32PM
By the way, who do you think would take a bigger beating on the LEH trading floor today.....Fuld or Ackman?
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 12:32PM
BSC, LEH and MRL are on the same platform. All of them are very similar to each other. As a chain reaction if one is going down another 2 are down as well. The only difference is what time it will take....
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 12:36PM
Sham-WoW is what Bess says when she releases her inner self to the crab claws.
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 12:40PM
Maybe Fuld should send his resume to Erin C.
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 12:42PM
@15 -- you mean Fuld or Einhorn? Ackman's been pretty quiet on LEH (apart from recently buying outs as a sort of macro hedge).
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 12:43PM
@14 You're such an Big Man, aren't you? You denigrate people who do a necessary job. Ask any trader, they need a good ops behind them.
and no, I'm not @6
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 12:43PM
sorry -- puts -- forgive the typo
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 12:44PM
Let's restart the xenophobia again:
I'm not sure I want the Chinese gov't clearing my trades. Especially since they are very long USD, t-bills, etc.
In other words, might China B-J Bros. fail even with a deal in place?
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 12:46PM
What are associate stub #'s at Lehman Brothers?
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 12:46PM
Sham Wow is a Made in Germany pussy that absorbs all the nearby cum around it 10 times its own weight. Talk about a major shamgasm.
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 12:47PM
18,
I don't get it.
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 12:48PM
Bess, post # 17 are ok with you too, right? Nothing about mayo or a shamwow, so it's cool right?
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 12:49PM
@20 Respect.
@12 Agreed. No deal throughout this weekend makes LEH just crap.
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 12:49PM
do you think Lehman will be conducting interviewing at HBS this year?
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 12:50PM
@26-- there've been other mayo and sham wow posts today, and she hasn't said anything, seems she's given up on trying to get you losers to stfu. i'd agree, it's a lost cause.
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 12:56PM
The Sham-Wow ads on TV are interesting because they make Billy Mayes look like a bearded, loud robot. The Sham-Wow guy is like someone who would run the coffee cart in front of Lehman.
Posted by Anal_yst , Sep 12, 2008 12:56PM
Funny thing watching people try to buy up the LEH preferred this past week thinking they'll get a huge windfall when LEH gets taken out.
Good luck with that trade kids, good luck
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 12:58PM
Right on @ 30.
Vince Offer
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 1:00PM
@20 rather sexist to think that only males can be traders isn't it
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 1:00PM
beenthere has got it covered today!
nice work.
MER is the main concern, what with every millionaire in americas life savings and all that.
as a bank short, the obv risk reward in is MER @ 17, and our comrades at fed, will act aggressively to get them a $5 price, so thain can go blow up UBS or the WWE.
-retail
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 1:02PM
So @ 29 you are one of the hypocrites who are ok with the comment "David Einhorn just blew a load of warm sticky cum on Erin Callan's face" posted on the No Govt funding for Lehman article, but mayo and shamwow upset you?
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 1:02PM
hey can someone find out if the NYSE can let LEH trade in anything smaller than penny increments? The bid-ask is ruining the profitability of my trading.
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 1:07PM
@6 undervalued because of...continuing bad news. Isn't that appropriate?
Lehman is in this mess because of its (or Fuld's) denial and hubris. The market has been wondering exactly how bad it can be, and Lehman has done nothing tangible to prove otherwise.
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 1:09PM
Paulson knows there'll be a deal.
There's always a deal.
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 1:11PM
@ 37 denial and hurbis...blah blah blah.
it's getting old.
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 1:13PM
Who wants my autographed photo of Herb Lehman? http://cgi.ebay.com/Autograph-of-Herbert-Lehman-Lehman-Bros-U-S-Senate_W0QQitemZ110197487432QQcmdZViewItem
Maybe other office supplies to offset my stock price. Come on, help a Brother out!
http://shop.ebay.com/items/_W0QQ_nkwZLehmanQ20BrothersQQ_armrsZ1QQ_fromZR40QQ_mdoZ
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 1:18PM
I will be paid on Monday. If no deal, then I'll contemplate taking over the company, given its market cap should be close to 5K at that point...
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 1:30PM
leh just broke, out, i bet whatever deal they were working on fell through
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 1:30PM
@39 but it is true,,Lehman was greedy and got its hand caught in the cookie car,,now they have to be punished,,the whole firm is predicated on this,,,its not getting old,,it is the truth,,,,
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 1:31PM
@39 but it is true,,Lehman was greedy and got its hand caught in the cookie car,,now they have to be punished,,the whole firm is predicated on this,,,its not getting old,,it is the truth,,,,
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 1:31PM
WSJ reports LEH's Bonus pool of $3 Billion exceeds market cap!!!!
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 1:35PM
As a practical matter, Leh can presumably survive for sometime on the liquidity facility at NY Fed. The PDCF allows them to downplay CP facilities and repo in keeping the lights on.
that said, its operational life would be the precise opposite of what a dealer needs to be. Its only trades would be cash trades for truly narrow margin stuff like on the run TSYs and agy bullets.
no one would do anything complex with them, as far as multi-market risk layoffs, and absolutely no one would do any higher margin, derivative counterparty type trading with them.
in short, their P&L becomes that of a bucket shop, while they have a 7th avenue cost structure.
its corporate finance and advisory businesses are already collapsing and as of monday, would begin to re-contracted out to rivals.
also, they continue to lose HNW clients and IMD mandates.
I assume there is no need to note that all of their sr talent is busy with feelers and prayers?
so no, they COULD live, if you define living as a sort of desicated corporate life support. in fact, its already going on.
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 1:38PM
Someone walk us through what the LEAP premium cost would have been to protect $100K of LEH value at 3/30, 6/30, 9/30 for the Schandfrende, Repent at Leisure, Train-wrec/rubber-necks
Thx
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 1:38PM
Does any bank in America dies these days? or the Mother of All Rescues is always there?
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 1:43PM
@ 46 - stopped reading at practical.
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 1:53PM
maybe lehman should go back to trading cotton
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 1:55PM
Bloomberg reporting BofA may make a joint bid for Lehman together with JC Flower and China Investment Corp.
This is total bullshit.
JC Flower should be barred from bidding for any financial institutions for the next five years given their abysmal record to date with their bombed-out bids for Sallie Mae and Bradford & Bingley in the UK.
China Investment Corp...........Has Beijing given you the approval to undertake any talks Mr Gao? Last time I checked, you are not the most well-liked person in Beijing. CIC's Blackstone shares are down 50% so far.
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 2:04PM
#12...wake up nit wit...LEH has been around since '94...
This LEH has NOTHING to do with the original firm.
The name Anthony has been around for 2000 years. BFD.
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 2:11PM
@ 51 agreed -- my first reaction when I saw that line in the third paragraph was to think, "I'll never have the 45 seconds of my life I spent reading this back..."
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 2:13PM
What is this world coming to? Dealbreaker as a legitimate news source?
2:11 (Dow Jones) Dealbreaker's John Carney ponders what would happen in a
"worst case scenario" if there was no deal in place for Lehman (LEH) by Monday
morning. "We've heard that the reluctance of Hank Paulson's Treasury
Department to provide a backstop for the deal and the burden of due diligence
pose a serious risk to a deal being executed," Carney says. "Could Lehman
survive next week without a deal in place? Could it survive Monday?" LEH down
18% at $3.46. (SMR)
(http://dealbreaker.com/2008/09/what-if-there-is-no-deal.php)
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 2:27PM
Anyone care to guess how much $ does the average MD at LEH have in LEH stock ????
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 2:28PM
55 Today or a year ago?
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 2:29PM
John Carney is the financial news equivalent of John Stewart!!
Mazel Tov JC!
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 2:30PM
@57-- except that, you know, carney isn't the least bit funny. And it's Jon, no 'h'.
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 3:00PM
@6
Mark to market their level III's then tell me their not inhaling more salt water then nawlins!
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 3:12PM
@61
Go fuck yourself
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 3:13PM
like a bulimic at prom....no one wants to dance when you're that underweight
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 3:13PM
@ 58
I know, as soon as i pressed post i realized my error. Thats what happens when i multitask .....
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 3:22PM
john stewart is as funning as whooping cough
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 3:26PM
john stewart is as funning as whooping cough
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 3:54PM
Is Bess the financial equivalent of Lisa Lampanelli or Sarah Silverman?
Inquiring minds which to know.
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 3:54PM
Is Bess the financial equivalent of Lisa Lampanelli or Sarah Silverman?
Inquiring minds wish to know.
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 3:57PM
jon stewart is hilarious
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 4:01PM
jon stewart is hilarious
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 5:56PM
so is double posting
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 7:22PM
JPMorgan should buy LEH, and merge it with Bear, then spin it off.
Symbol: BLEH
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 7:27PM
@70 - best comment on the page.
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 7:45PM
contemplating accepting summer offer at LEH or accepting full time at Wachovia, what say?
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 10:26PM
Hi,
I don't know much about I-banking or Wall Street jive so could someone please explain the frequent references to mayonnaise?
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 10:52PM
@73
It's a lubricant
An old joke that somehow became a mainstain
Posted by guest , Sep 12, 2008 11:25PM
@73
@74 is right, plus in this case it's doubly funny because Deutsche Bank's Mike Mayo covers Lehman and other brokers.
@46
You forgot to mention the index unit as having value. I've always wondered why they didn't try to monetize it like MS did with MXB (MSCIBarra).
Anyone know what the HQ building is worth?
Posted by guest , Sep 13, 2008 1:45AM
If memory serves, they bought HQ from MS for 400-some-odd million in 2001 or 2002. It's probably worth 5-600 mil now. Maybe 20% of Lehman's market cap is that pretty building.
Some of my coworkers were very upset about the sale. They were picking out furniture for their new offices when MS sold the building out from under them to Lehman. Perhaps we get it back now.