We've been writing a lot about the financial crisis here and yet I can't help but feeling as though some of you still don't believe me when I say this shit has gotten heavy. So I would like you to, on Saturday or Sunday this weekend, find yourselves a children's soccer game and poll the parents on the sidelines. I betcha you're going to hear some fear. Maybe then you'll get it.
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Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 9:36PM
she's so adorable i'm almost under her spell
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 9:41PM
she's the worst.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 9:43PM
Palin: "I'm not one to attribute every activity of man to changes in the climate"
ummm....
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 9:45PM
She could be the next biggest thing in embarrassing American leaders.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 9:45PM
"i may not answer the question the way you OR THE MODERATOR want me to"
WTF????
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 9:48PM
She is so fucking dumb but she is so fucking hot.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 9:49PM
Joe just proposed "principal only" monthly mortgage payments. Works for me, but might be a problem for my bank(JPM),...well Jamie Dimon is on board, this will win them the election, as many will save on interest payments, unless they still want the Schedule A tax write off, let the public figure it out. Flat Tax Anyone?
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 9:52PM
"man made global warming"... what a complete douchebag.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 9:52PM
I would love a flat tax. Where do I sign up?
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 9:52PM
Well...it's better than the Couric interview...so far.
Why why why didn't McCain pick up Romney? What a poor lapse of judgement.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 9:53PM
At this point Romney would be the Secretary of the Treasury. But it looks like it will be whoever the other guy wants, according to the polls.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 9:54PM
@9- at Fraunces Tavern
Posted by StupidEquityGuy , Oct 02, 2008 9:56PM
A couple of real world examples of fear in the system, as of today... I heard about a High Net Worth investor, who pulled 3 Million Cash out of his checking account and deposited it into his safety deposit box at the same bank. They had to count out the 3 Large and then he put it into the box...
Second example, a CEO of a public company with no debt, but 25% of the company market cap in cash, called me at home last night and asked how I was handling my funds cash horde... when I explained to him the process, he asked me to set his firm up with a sub account so I could manage his company cash horde, he had it parked in a FDIC account as a single horde. I just doubled my firms AUM.
Third example, I was on a CC today with an adviser firm in London, they asked what my AUM was and when I told them the new larger size, they suggested they would double it and scale that up another 500% based on performance, if I am interested in their "rules" of market engagement.
Right now, professionals, money managers and high net worth investors are in panic mode. I wonder what happens when Main Street joins the circus.
What you the gentle reader makes of these examples is up to you...
~SEG
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 9:56PM
Nucular! why is it so hard to say NUCLEAR?!?!?!
@7- Biden didn't propose principal only mortgages - he proposed ADJUSTABLE princiapl mortgages! even worse!
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 9:57PM
she can't pronounce "nukular".
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 9:57PM
Is Palin really this dumb?
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 9:59PM
SEG - that first story about the high net worth investor pulling $3MM out of an account and placing it in a safe deposit box in the same bank sounds like bs to me - I had to sign a form when I opened my Citi box 9 months ago that said I wouldn't hold currency in the box...
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 9:59PM
Kind of like a female Ronald Reagan but without good advisors
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:00PM
I'm a senior in college, and today my dad called me and asked for my SSN and driver's license number...
I asked him why:
"So I can add you to the bank account and get another 100k of FDIC insurance..."
I'd say Americans are getting worried...
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:01PM
SEG - that first story about the high net worth investor pulling $3MM out of an account and placing it in a safe deposit box in the same bank sounds like bs to me - I had to sign a form when I opened my Citi box 9 months ago that said I wouldn't hold currency in the box...
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:02PM
@19 you are an idiot.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:03PM
Ok SNL, I want a Will Ferrel as Biden, Tina Fey as Palin, and Tracy Morgan as the moderator. You have 49.5 hours, make it happen!
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:06PM
@21, why?
Posted by StupidEquityGuy , Oct 02, 2008 10:06PM
@18, the HNW is a friend of the CEO of the public company, and the bank in question is a private bank for the O&G sector. They treat large net worth investors differently then Citi.
I am only relaying to you what I heard on my phone today... from people with 8 digit plus personal net worth's. There is real actual "Oh Shit" fear on the street now. It might not have reach Joe Six Pack with his imported (snicker) Budweiser but its reaching the Rich side of main street.
I am cracking open the good wine tonight.. why wait...
Best to all,
~SEG
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:08PM
@ 10. Because America is stupid. Much rather have hot moron than another rich white guy.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:09PM
@14 -either way, is that just another Bidenism, or is he floating that out for Barack...he must know that that would have to apply to every mortgage, and would seriously affect all lenders regardless of merit.....
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:09PM
I'd hit it
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:09PM
If we do it, will you PROMISE to stop bitching and whining about the short-selling ban everyday? Seriously, we get it, you don't like it. But to be completely honest, I don't give a fuck if you like it.
Those of us actually in this industry are desperate for anything that might help the irrational actions on bank stocks.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:11PM
Irrational actions on bank stocks? You mean like accurately valuing insolvent organizations. Work for a better company then gimp.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:12PM
@28 you are an idiot. no rational people support the short sell ban. I get it, from your comment, you like it. but to be completely honest, i don't get a fuck if you like it.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:12PM
Say it aint so Joe!
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:12PM
Palin is a manufactured candidate. Dumb as the day is long.
If America elects her and the geriatric, then you get what you deserve--2 weeks severance...
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:13PM
it's so
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:13PM
@28 is sarah palin.
Posted by AJ , Oct 02, 2008 10:14PM
Ugh she is adorable. Middle America will eat this shit up. Damn it.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:14PM
John McCain already tapped that!?
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:15PM
she is such a sarcastic arrogant dumb bitch. "doggonit"...stfu you stupid cunt.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:16PM
@ 28 - right on brotha.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:16PM
@28- what you call "whining" and "bitching" about the short sell ban is what smart, logical people call not letting the SEC get away with this exercise in retardation, that they've not mindboggilingly extended another 2 weeks.
Posted by StupidEquityGuy , Oct 02, 2008 10:17PM
@28,
The only thing irrational about bank stocks is that you can't short them, and they still go BK with out the system harvesting any of the lost loot.
You guys overleveraged them, paid insane bonuses as a basic business model and then went out of business in a flurry of takeunders and BKs, hell you put the Rupt back into Bankrupt.
That's the facts...
You have put people like myself in margin calls and been unmerciful at all times, now that the system is calling Bull Shit on your mark to myth prices, and its your sorry ass turn to be in a margin call, the fucking system has to stop and bail you out?
Dude, you blow up... suck it up...
~SEG
Disclosure: I have never been in a margin call personally or professionally. You can make money in this system with out the use of margin, you just have to be stupid enough to do it right.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:18PM
@35 she is already leading on the drudge poll
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:18PM
people who defend the short sell ban (28, 38) likely also defend sarah palin's intelligence.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:18PM
@ 39, yes how dare the SEC attempt to halt psychotic, irrational short-selling by moron Yahoo message board users like you. OMG, the humanity!!!111
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:19PM
one more thing and I'm gone, are not these people with huge resetting homes loans getting pretty decent Fed Tax Rebates come Jan 1- oh,I forgot, they have no income..and also don't forget, in FLA,CA,AZ,NV...alot were overseas buyers back in the day, who were able to just walk away, only to return again very, very, soon...once credit frees up.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:20PM
who'll be the treasurer for dem
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:20PM
you stupid fucking idiot @42- they didn't just ban "psychotic, irrational short selling" they BANNED ALL SHORT SELLING.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:22PM
bess, I talk w/ the people you're refer to all the time & I am totally seeing that. don't know about $3MM in a deposit box but certainly the concept is all over the place....the fear is pretty widespread; I'm in midwest & there is a real concern - certainly fed by media but it's in real people that are trying to grow their businesses are getting squeezed, & no matter how good their banking relationships are (were), that does not matter any more.
and once they understand it, they are definitely supporting this bill. paulson did a shitty job selling this to middle america...dumb it down, stop the stammering, promise each taxpayer a check if this thing turns a profit & they'll swallow it. so don't say fuck main street, say fuck the uneducated still saying no to this bill if it dies on Friday.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:22PM
@ 46 - they banned short selling on specific stocks you doofus. Hence, the short selling list. Go back to the Google finance boards you hideous troll.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:23PM
@SEG
Instead of converting to cash that yields no interest, why didn't he go for short term TBills instead?
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:25PM
@48-- yes, they banned ALL SHORT SELLING on specific stocks, regardless of whether or not it was rational. seriously, grow a brain cell.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:28PM
selling short is good for the soul....buying long makes you feel good! Options are for those who cannot make a decision,and we have many...JOE BIDEN(circa 2008).
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:31PM
"It's important to remember that freedom isn't free, it costs a buck-o-five. Thank you."
-Palin-
Posted by StupidEquityGuy , Oct 02, 2008 10:31PM
@49,
I sent him an email last night suggesting he do a 20% per week roll in T-Bills that expire in 30 days or less. Basically a dissolving ladder of bills held to maturity with 20% in cash insured by Golden Securitys as part of a managed account under my institutional relationship with them...
His company has a large positive cash flow per month which will stay at his primary disbursement bank, but I will handle his overflow cash until he needs to use it to pay for the purchase of new producing O&G field or a competitor, as a dissolving ladder of short term US T's...
It appears that there is a niche of MBA CEOs who do not have have the cash management system in place and they realize they whoops. I have a funny feeling he is the first of a few companies like his that are realizing it does not matter if you kick the markets ass, if your bank fails and your winnings are lost.
~SEG
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:32PM
Sarah has a bigger flagpin than Joe. She's clearly more patriotic.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:33PM
is palin winking at the camera?
-Oz
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:39PM
@50. Dude was right, go back to Googe. You are obviously state school pedigree.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:41PM
she is such a fucking bitch. didn't answer one question. nice folksyisms. stupid cunt.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:42PM
Never thought I'd hear the word troll on a finance site. I embrace the nerdery.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:42PM
#57. Are you that angry that she won? Even Joe Biden liked her. I don't know who I am going to vote for, still, but she did a fabulous job. I mean, Biden knew it too and he didn't viciously attack her, he liked her.
Posted by StupidEquityGuy , Oct 02, 2008 10:47PM
@49, I am stupid, you were meaning the 3 MM cash guy. He wanted to know that his cash was safe. CASH... he didn't care about yield. He didn't care about US T's. This millionaire just wanted to know that he had real actual cash available when he wanted it... So he could sleep at night.
I have some HNW clients of my own, and I am advising them to have a small slug of physical cash available. The actual green paper stuff. I remember in the 90's went a Satellite went silent, and 90% of the paypoint locations in the US went off line for a few hours. I made me realize you can not rely on just plastic.
I remember an uncle who always had a folded $100 bill in his wallet, for emergencies. Its sad to say, but with credit cards already being frozen in Europe by a bank, and home equity lines being frozen, and what not, you realistically can not rely on your debt card to always work.
Got Cash?
~SEG
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:48PM
I can't believe she gave a shout out to some 3rd graders during the debate
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:50PM
SEG - I've seen first hand similar examples of what you're talking about. Guys actually buying physical gold...having a tough time figuring out where to park cash. Total panic mode. It's scary.
(fyi, my first post under this topic)
Posted by StupidEquityGuy , Oct 02, 2008 10:56PM
@62, I have a client who told me in past tense, he had drained a top 25 city in the US of available gold. He hit 5 stores and bought the wad. No joke...
I know that physical and electronic do not trade close to each other. In the cash of silver, electronic version is around $11 per oz. The physical in your possession stuff is about $16 per oz and there is almost zero available.
Call around... the deleveraging has caused a run on physical delivery. If you call now, typical wait time is 30 days now... with them holding your cash.
~SEG
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 10:57PM
@ 57
sexist much? cat got your tongue?
continue eating liberal shit and i hope Obama's ridiculous spending and funding for unemployed lazy jackasses causes u to miss your own mortgage payments. u think it wont effect u, the 250k and under tax cut applies to joint filers, not single. so single would be 125k. im sure if ur on this site u have quite a bit of knowledge of what you do/want to do and realize you will hit this level and rather quickly. so go ahead.
fund the unemployed/lazy/wasteful spending jerks both in ur local city and in washington
cough*ACORN* cough
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:01PM
@60 -Cash is King, but this King doesn't nessicarily care about your cash- King Hank(circa Oct 2008).
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:02PM
SEG in your opinion, if they pass this bill tomorrow will it restore any confidence or are we to far gone?
Also, in your opinion, is there anything that can be done to halt this spiral into no mans land?
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:05PM
The last post on the other thread is concerning.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:13PM
@59
Are you stupid or plain stupid? That was the Democrat's plan from the start? Biden was NOT SUPPOSED to attack Palin because they would make him look like a bully and alienate the Middle America voters.
Posted by diablo , Oct 02, 2008 11:14PM
Palin said that Wall Street is full of corruption and said it more than once. Oh the humanity!
Regarding fear, I haven't seen it yet, except for some masters of the universe belt-tightening. Perhaps there's some quiet desperation around here.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:17PM
@66
The bailout plan won't help. The market has already discount it. The credit market is not lightening up. Hence, the plan for bank holidays.
Better get your cash ready bitches.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:18PM
@diablo-- hello? bess was quoting palin on the fear line.
Posted by StupidEquityGuy , Oct 02, 2008 11:19PM
@66,
Do you remember the context of an E Ticket ride? ok that dated me...
We are beyond returning to yesterday. We are going to have to face the tomorrow sooner then we expected. It will definitely be different then today is.
The HNW client is a great example of damaging the system from the inside. He most likely had it in a MMF at the bank to start with, so by parking physical cash, the system is drained of CP working capital, its drained of working banking reserves, and instead of the system having lubricate, it is bone dry and screeching to a halt on us.
Libor, TED, ECTA they all point to a liquidity trap event. It appears its happening around the world in different ways. Europe is pushing cash back into the ECB bank over night faster then it can shovel back into the system.
The crisis is now causing banks to act like popcorn and pop up on the newswire hourly now. Just look around, everyone is bailing out a bank someplace.
The world has decided that it has an economic hang over... and right now, it wants a freaking lossage from the US Congress to sooth it... will it make it better, probably not... will it help joe citizen? not directly... but it might make it possible for him to get a salary check November 1st, while the reality is that he might not at the rate we are going...
~SEG
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:20PM
#59 is me.
@68 I think you have it all wrong. Clearly Palin was superior on the various topics or else she would not have won.
America wants change and I think even you recognize Palin is THE choice for change.
SPODE
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:21PM
@60
That is weird. Because if the banking system collapse, the US dollar would be.... crushed? So his 3m dollar bills would be.... worth a lot less?
Might as well take the safe route and buy gold/silver.
Posted by Mr Jones , Oct 02, 2008 11:23PM
@73 very, VERY funny. President Palin!!
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:26PM
I watched the first hour of the debate from a bar, where I spent more time focusing on the ladies next to me than the debate. However, as an Obama supporter, I must admit that Palin just saved McCain's candidacy. She won this debate outright (regardless of any stupid things she said). The polls will show this starting tonight. I knew the democrats would manage to fuck this one up like they always do...
Regarding cash on hand. SEG speaks some scary tales. There is a good chance that I'm headed to my bank tomorrow to withdraw some cash (but then again I'm currently not 100% sober). I am sorry for contributing to this mess...
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:27PM
Palin is a stupid, arrogant smug cunt! (don't chya kno)
Her stupidity is so apparent that it hurts. Higher education? Her daugter been sucking much dick to tax herself with the rigors of higher education.
Fuck. It's almost insulting. Her stupidity and rehearsed non answers are insulting. And for fucks sakes, she's a goddamn moose hunter from bumblefuck AK with a redneck husband who races a snowmobile.... WAKE THE FUCK UP PEOPLE!
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:27PM
74 you have it all wrong. The banking system must collapse in order for the U.S. to get out of this mess.
Banking system collapses leading to a crushed dollar leading to oil dropping significantly in price -oil priced in dollars- allowing countries to get back on the fast track of economic growth because oil is inexpensive.
Proof: Look at the price of oil in 1994 and economic growth from 1994-2000.
No, no, no?
YES!
SPODE
Posted by StupidEquityGuy , Oct 02, 2008 11:27PM
@74, its become a race to no where.. people are trying to figure out what the meaning cash really is...
interesting mental exercise... For the investors of the oldest MMF fund in the world, the Reserve Fund... Cash means 97 cents on the dollar or less...
The 97 cents is an unknown as no one has followed up lately to find out what the real rate is. The cracking of the buck though has killed the CP markets. People dont trust them now.
So, how are we going to inject cash liquidity into the system to replace the multi trillion dollar CP market? Become it appears if you have the letter C in your initals... your screwed...
CDO, CDS and now CP...
~SEG
Posted by diablo , Oct 02, 2008 11:28PM
SEG @72
Aye for the liquidity trap event and draining the CP working capital.
But if Paulson gets his billions and then floods the market with short-term treasuries to pay for the crap Goldman Sachs assets it's going to get worse. That's not working capital sitting on treasuries, it's taken away from the CP money markets as treasury money markets yields will go up.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:35PM
Sarah Palin sure is a maverick... she has definitely frontiered into a whole new area of stupidity... god bless those hard working middle class Alaskans.
oh and if she was going to say "wall-street" one more time, i would have kicked the 60" TV in rage. dumb c#nt is clueless about the financial markets in america. we dont trade fishbones and triskets in the lower 48.
yall betcha!
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:35PM
@ SPODE
Seriously. Go find the tallest building and jump down from it if you think Palin's VP material.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:37PM
@77
Palin will makes an excellint president on the united states but its people like you whoes are not in touch with the American people and thats whats truely insulting you TYPING ALL IN CAPITAL LETTERS NOT IN TOUCH WITH THE AMERICAN PEOPLE and you have poor grammer.
Lets me sea you race a snowmobile in the snow its hard because you are in the snow and that how you learn alot about the american people especailly those that live in the or near the see.
Palin for President!
SPODE
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:38PM
@69 then you are not looking in the right places.
I have clients who i have been advising to stay on the sidelines for the last 2 months. We took profits on most of our positions. Those that want to trade i have advised to trade from the short side, mostly S&P 500.
In the past 3 days i have recieved more calls of thanks than I have in the last 10 years.
You can make somone a million dollars and they are happy. Make sure they don't lose $10,000 and they will thank you.
Preservation of capital is the name of the game.
Today, one of my friends at another investment firm told me that they cancelled the breeders cup trip that they were taking clients (CEO's) on because all the clients had pulled out.
The old guys that have been in the industry since the 1970's, who previously thought that this was just "another cycle" started getting scared 2 weeks ago and now for the first time in their lives admit to panic and true fear.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:39PM
@ SPODE
Palin is the choice for a hearty yank in front of the tube. I'm not tugging to Obama, Biden or John....Condie, mayyyyyyybe, fluid at the moment.
I'm surprised that an individual such as yourself with clearly at least a working knowledge of the markets is falling for this shit.
She was downright insulting in her stupidity. Rehearsed stupidity!
I didn't know if to bust a nut on the LCD or put my right shoulder down and tackle the set....
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:40PM
Nucular, nucular, nucular.
Hahaha
Although I gotta tell you she has one hot little tight body. I wouldn't mind getting nucular with her.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:42PM
82 palin is more than vp material she is president material.
jump down from the tallest building? how about, jump off the tallest building?
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:44PM
Palin only has one type of audience, one which is uneducated, lower middle class, and without cable tv. WHY> because because if they were educated, they would clearly be smarter than her. lower middle class has 'darn' clue about wallstreet. and if they had cable, they would watch something else. lol
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:45PM
SEG,
Comments like yours have given us faith that the DB comment section hasn't permanently turned into the yahoo message board it has been for the past few weeks. Please stick around.
-DB readers prior to Sept '08
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:45PM
Palin only has one type of audience, one which is uneducated, lower middle class, and without cable tv. WHY> because if they were educated, they would clearly be smarter than her. lower middle class has no 'darn' clue about wallstreet. and if they had cable, they would watch something else. lol
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:45PM
87 and spode....
Are you guys retarded? from Boston?
Is it the lack of sleep?
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:45PM
everyone here saying she's hot, she got my vote. if you're voting strictly because you'd fuck her, why not get someone actually hot, and not just mid-40s politician hot. why don't you see if mccain will swap her for the hottest, dumbest bitch you meet this weekend at brother jimmy's? cause if this is really all about would i fuck her or not, I think we should raise the bar.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:46PM
87 and spode....
Are you guys retarded? from Boston?
Is it the lack of sleep?
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:47PM
Screw Palin and Biden. Palin is a porn star and Biden's a six-pack. Can we get back to bank run discussion please?
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:47PM
She did great - for the idiots. They are looking at the winking and the folksy-ness. They are going to vote for her in droves.
We're screwed.
The American public does not understand or care about the issues. They just vote for the most charming person who is pro-life and anti-gay.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:47PM
As ususal, the insight is always appreciated SEG.
Posted by RamblinWreck , Oct 02, 2008 11:48PM
From Bloomberg:
The one-month Libor OIS spread, viewed as an indirect measure of funds availability in the money market, was 19 basis points today [1/24/08], after narrowing to 12 basis points on Jan. 16. The spread peaked last year at 110 basis points on Dec. 4, and averaged 52 basis points for the final five months of 2007. It averaged 6 basis points for the two years prior.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=angq2PsOg5Io&refer=bond
Today it finished at ~2.7%...any thoughts on further implications? Does it keep widening?
Posted by diablo , Oct 02, 2008 11:50PM
@84
I hear you. What are they doing with the cash from selling their positions?
Also it would be interesting to know what those folks are thinking about the Paulson plan. Good, bad or indifferent?
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:51PM
What are the commenters looking for in the next DB writer?
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:51PM
@85 You have to go with Condi. C'mon.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:52PM
This from a friend in Seattle: “I was talking to my neighbor last night. He is in finance in the county government, King County (Seattle). He said there are some very secretive budget talks being held, very hush, hush. Apparently, the county has lost around $200 million of taxpayer money in toxic paper investments, with huge implications on the budget. He says he is not privy to the details, but he is taking a 10-day vacation starting today, because he has nothing to do since everything is in flux.”
This from a friend in Atlanta with strong banking connections: “Reliable word that Bank of America branch managers just received a letter or memo from the USFed instructing them to perhaps be ready for a one-week universal shut-down of the banking system, including access to checking accounts, savings accounts and credit cards. Reliable word has it that BofA bank branches received a shipment of signs last week, reading “WE'RE SORRY, BUT DUE TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL, WE CANNOT BE OPEN AT THIS TIME.”
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:52PM
@85
paling is everyones choice and she was just nervous but she still shined like a bright shiney star in the sky that you can see at night if your not in the city or in the back seat of a car having your brains fucked out by your highschool boyfrind whoe races a snowmobeal as you fumble and stumble in and out of communities colleges getting a jerkoff degree.
we need strong leader ships and planes and we need it now and STOP TYPING IN ALL CAPITAL LEETERS YOU LETTER TYPING OUT OF TOUCH NON SMOWMOBILE DRIVING WHOES NOT WELCOMED ON THE BRIDGE TO NOWHERE.
SPODE
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:54PM
TO SPODE AND OTHER POLITICAL COMMENTATORS, GET THE FUCK OFF THIS THREAD.
please keep this discussion to bank runs, market collapse ok?
Posted by RamblinWreck , Oct 02, 2008 11:54PM
@101, paragraph 2: False. That is all.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:55PM
102 for pres.
I'm our the night.
Posted by guest , Oct 02, 2008 11:58PM
@101 - please - the signage wording alone tells you this is fake. A Bank Holiday sign would never be worded that way.
Lame internet rumor.
On the other hand - I have some Nigerian currency that needs trading, maybe you can help me with your friends and their "strong banking relationships"
idiots everywhere
Posted by guest , Oct 03, 2008 12:04AM
@106
I don't know about you man. But i'm going to get my cash out tomorrow.
Posted by guest , Oct 03, 2008 12:06AM
So, did you see it? Did you see it?? She totally winked at me -- several times!!! She totally wants me to fuck her.
Posted by RamblinWreck , Oct 03, 2008 12:10AM
@106 There have been major gas shortages in Atlanta for the past few weeks because of idiots like you. If the banking system collapses and people can't withdraw cash, then I really don't think the cash that is out there will be worth much. It'll be all about the barter.
Posted by RamblinWreck , Oct 03, 2008 12:12AM
Ooops, meant @107
Posted by StupidEquityGuy , Oct 03, 2008 12:13AM
I think we should have a questionnaire you answer, in order to post. If you vote for McCain or Obama, you get redirected to their website. If you click on the math formula your post gets posted...
Just saying...
Posted by RamblinWreck , Oct 03, 2008 12:15AM
"Which of the following eqns. represents a Gaussian copula?"
Posted by guest , Oct 03, 2008 12:17AM
@Stupid Equity Guy -
You are breath of fresh air on here, keeping the discourse at the former Deal Breaker level.
I know these last few weeks have been great for Deal Breaker, lots of eyeballs for the advertisements, but the comments here have fallen in quality...it's sad if this place becomes like everywhere else....
Thanks, StupidEquityGuy for keeping it classy and interesting.
Posted by guest , Oct 03, 2008 12:19AM
@ SEG
How you do you reconcile the 3M cash in the safety box action to @109?
Posted by WindsorNot , Oct 03, 2008 12:21AM
SEG, I have to agree. I think "guest" commenting should be disabled. SPODE might singlehandedly making me dumber than "Palin's" youngest.
Posted by guest , Oct 03, 2008 12:21AM
Regardless of your political view, the polls have Biden winning, and any gain Palin made, Joe matched. So at best a draw for her, at worst Obama pulls even further ahead.
As to bank runs, seriously? Isn't this the site that ISN'T (sorry for use of all caps SPODE) a Yahoo populist stupid site. I got that email, it is the same junk as forward an email and Bill Gates will pay you money. False logic.
Posted by guest , Oct 03, 2008 12:22AM
What's the closest soccer field to 45 Broad?
Posted by guest , Oct 03, 2008 12:30AM
Biden crushed her.
She wasn't even answering the question.
Fucking folksy bullshit talk.
Posted by guest , Oct 03, 2008 12:35AM
" 2008-10-02 — ml-implode.com
... the San Francisco MSA down 24.8% year-over-year. It consists of 5 counties and 4.4 million people. Within the SF MSA you have Tiburon down 5% and Antioch down 70%.
The banks will use the 24.8% for the San Francisco MSA, or even less by using the monthly figure or statewide or Western Region figures, for their modeling and loss estimates for CA loans and securities. This is very bad because there are no subprime loans in Tiburon, they are all in Antioch. Real Estate is local. More importantly, many loan program types such as subprime are very localized."
http://tinyurl.com/4zodm8
Posted by guest , Oct 03, 2008 1:19AM
hahahah look at 103. He comes to the Internet to get all edumacated about micro topics when he doesn't even know the complete macro picture.
Welcome to global economy kids, this isn't 1982 anymore. You had a little taste of global economy pain back in July of 97 when the Thai government decided to float the baht and overnight, markets and economies started vomiting all over each other like a high school prom. Ten years later the global economy is significantly larger, more complex, and opaque and it will be decades before we truly understand what the gas, brake, and clutch pedals are -look all the revisions in monetary thought-. It wasn't until the late 80's early 90's that economists in the U.S. started to agree that monetary policy was superior to fiscal policy when it came to directing the economy -yea right-. As a result of these last 60 days they will probably change their minds again.
But yet you want to discuss a micro picture -bank runs and market collapse- that is so specific and dependent on something that nobody understands, the global economy. What information could you possibly acquire on this blog that would lead you to believe that you as the individual controls knowledge that the markets haven’t already priced in. In terms of understanding the global economy we are not at the point where we can define shadows on the cave wall let alone fool ourselves into perceived knowledge.
Now read this bad fucking joke and stop trying to be smart because the individual is an idiot.
It’s April 1st and a woman is in the hospital giving birth. The doctor is yelling at her, “PUSH! PUSH! PUSH!” Finally the baby comes out and the doctor throws it on the ground and starts stomping on it. The woman screams hysterically “OH MY GOD! MY BABY! MY BABY!” The doctor looks and the woman and says, “April fools lady,
the baby was already dead.”
Now you will walk away from this blog with something of value 103. I have helped to create your reality. You’re welcome.
SPODE
Posted by guest , Oct 03, 2008 1:27AM
wow, deep two nights in a row.
Posted by guest , Oct 03, 2008 1:29AM
With spreads this wide, market makers could make a killing. So why aren't people making markets? No capital?
Posted by StupidEquityGuy , Oct 03, 2008 1:52AM
@114,
He is hording cash, and I agree that it is a real basic break point in the economic system. His capital is truly not being used to benefit society at any level. The removal of it from the system causes a lowering of the maximum economic production capacity at his own bank.
In the macro view, it is damaging the basic liquidity multiplier effect. I think economist call it the velocity of money, which in his case stops when its parked in a tin can.
Right now the average person needs to focus on the simple things, its about paying down debt, raising liquidity (cash/savings), and owning assets paid off. It is even more important to slow down and spend some time with your family and friend, there is more to life then worshiping money.
~SEG
Night All
Posted by guest , Oct 03, 2008 2:04AM
SEG, we need to focus on what would get these people off the blogs and back to doing what I (perhaps you) tell them to do. No offense Bess, but somebody has to give the orders and somebody has to do the work.
Posted by diablo , Oct 03, 2008 2:08AM
SPODE is part of the old Wall Street school: dead-baby jokes @ 120 - who would have thunk that, ha!
Posted by guest , Oct 03, 2008 2:33AM
This site has really gone down the tubes this month.
Posted by guest , Oct 03, 2008 2:45AM
Is this you guys?:
http://gawker.com/news/party-crash/team-party-crash-dealbreakercom-launch-party-180401.php
Posted by KevinB , Oct 03, 2008 3:08AM
@62, @63
A close friend of mine is a director of sales for the Royal Canadian Mint. I asked him about physical gold, and he told me "I can't get any - no coins, no bars, no ingots. I could sell anything I had but the cupboard is empty."
Meanwhile, the gold held by the SPDR GLD ETF has jumped by nearly 100 metric tonnes since early September. Richard Russell of the Dow Theory Letters is telling his subscribers to diversify out of gold shares and funds to physical metal.
What I can't understand is the gravity defying act of the US dollar. The US continues to flood the world with dollars, and it's clear Bernanke and Paulson will inflate as much as necessary to avoid a Japanese style decade of deflation and near-depression. How long the rest of the world is going to keep accepting these worthless notes is beyond my ability to predict.
Posted by guest , Oct 03, 2008 3:26AM
"Can a Bailout Succeed?
By PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS
University of Maryland economist Herman E. Daly points out that the current crisis is really one of the “overgrowth of financial assets relative to growth of real wealth.” Daly believes that “financial assets have grown by a large multiple of the real economy” and that “paper exchanging for paper is now 20 times greater than exchanges of paper for real commodities.” Exploding debt liens have simply outgrown the wealth.
The problem, in other words, cannot be bailed out. Historically, debt that cannot be redeemed has been repealed by inflation. The same inflation that wipes out debt will wipe out savings.
A failed bailout is the worst possible outcome. The chance of failure rises if the US government tries to turn bad private debt into good public debt without regard to the expansion of the public debt."
http://tinyurl.com/2dd6n
Posted by guest , Oct 03, 2008 3:35AM
"October 2, 2008
Speaking in the Tongues of Brokers
The Bailout in Plain English
By JOE BAGEANT
Seeing the oncoming train of financial disaster, the financiers just about wet their pants, and screamed “We want it all now! And if we don’t get it the “economy” will lock its brakes and crash. Remember, we control the medium of exchange. Nobody gets a paycheck if we don’t. Remember that it’s lines of credit from us that backs every working man’s and woman’s paycheck in the country. So pay the hell up.
because we don’t know any better or understand any possible resistance to the system because we have been kept like worms in a jar and fed horse shit."
http://tinyurl.com/3pt8z6
Posted by RamblinWreck , Oct 03, 2008 6:16AM
I still don't understand the obsession with gold. Minus uses in electronics and some other industrial applications, I don't see that it has any inherent value. When will we ever get rid of that pesky lizard portion of our brain that gets us into these messes in the first place?
Posted by guest , Oct 03, 2008 8:14AM
Whay all the hating on Sarah Palin? You resent her for being from Wasilla, AK?
You NY elites have demonstarted you can't keep your own house in order. You come whining for a bailout when things get tough.
You NEED to be ruled by those of us from the Hinterlands.
Posted by guest , Oct 03, 2008 8:15AM
Whay all the hating on Sarah Palin? You resent her for being from Wasilla, AK?
You NY elites have demonstrated you can't keep your own house in order. You come whining for a bailout when things get tough.
You NEED to be ruled by those of us from the Hinterlands.
Posted by guest , Oct 03, 2008 8:26AM
What clusterfuck of comments.
-Lurker
Posted by guest , Oct 03, 2008 10:16AM
@131 When the economy is strong -- ie steadily growing GDP, low inflation, low unemployment as it was in 1998- 1999, then gold is a commodity. The gold price then was $200 an ounce. As a commodity it's value is increasing due to the massive growth in China's electronics's industry and the growth in India's demand for jewlery. Since 2003, gold has been increasingly used as a currency of last resort to protect against war, inflation and currency collapse. The benefits of gold as a currency are that it has been used from the beginning of time as a currency. It can be bought and sold anywhere in the world. There is no counterparty risk -- no margin, no risk that the company may fail destroying the value of the bond or stock. It has held it's value against inflation. It is also portable. 10 kilograms = $265,240.
The main downside risk to the price of gold is that there are tons and tons of gold that have already been mined. If the prices rises too high as it did earlier this year when it went over $1000 an ounce, then thousands of people will come out of the woodwork and sell their jewelry for scrap.
Posted by guest , Oct 03, 2008 3:37PM
@SEG:
When I read your post signing off with a handle, my initial reaction was that you were another The Guy From Delaware: arrogant, uninformed, well-spoken, but a douche.
But after reading your comments, I must commend you for rising well above the influx of idiots on this site. I dream of a DB free of "First!" and any use of the word "troll."
Posted by StupidEquityGuy , Oct 03, 2008 3:44PM
@136, thank you for the kind words... It takes all of us, to make a market. I have a great crew of guys who work for me at Stupid Equity LLC.
It makes this market a lot easier to navigate, when you trust the team you have assembled and everyone is doing what they do best.
It gives me the freedom to pick my fat pitch trades and mentally spend my time preparing for the next one. Ergo my periods of heavy posting here, and then periods of not being around.
Sometimes I have two different trading desks (two different states) busy banging away on the keyboards placing trades while I sit here and try to think of snarky things to say...
~SEG
My CFO just stated about the market that he would hate to see what they would have done if the Congress not passed the bill.
Posted by guest , Oct 03, 2008 3:48PM
135 et al This thing about physical gold, and not being able to get any in size. Can't you redeem ETF units in kind - that is, ask for the gold, just like you can ask for the actual underlying individual company shares if you redeem say an ETF S&P 500 Index ETF. I thought that that was the mechanism that insures that the value of an ETF is in sync with the value of the underlying assets. And which is what makes EFTs different from a typical closed end investment fund, which typically sells at a discount to the value of its holding. Can anyone help on this?
Posted by guest , Oct 03, 2008 5:01PM
@138 Sorry. I don't know about that. I just own the physical. Mostly London good delivery bars. I almost have my body weight in gold.
Posted by guest , Oct 05, 2008 11:56AM
@ SEG
I bet one of those trading desks is in Dallas. Have fun working retail in this environment.
@12
I want to bang the bartender at Fraunces tavern.