Warren Buffett has an editorial in today's New York Times called "Buy American. I Am." I imagine it is intended to reassure people in ways that the never ending press conferences held by Bald, Beard and Bushie cannot. It didn't. I'm not saying Warren Buffett doesn't believe in America, and buying American, but, to paraphrase the Oracle of Omaha, "be fearful when investors who rarely if ever give an interview or write annual letters without referencing sticky fifties as they relate to buxom prosties, and be greedy when...actually just that first part." Honestly, this is not a good sign. I read (skimmed) the whole thing twice (once) and there was nary a whisper of aberrant sex fetish-cum-folksy business wisdom. I even alt-E-F'd 'women,' 'sex,' 'breast,' 'whorehouse,' 'harem,' 'tire iron,' 'knockers,' 'jugs,' 'whipped cream,' 'Oreo Blizzard,' and 'We gotta be like Peter North out there.' Nothing.
The tone was extremely eerie and came off as though a hostage was reading from a script and following order to "smile for the camera!" Except I did not get the impression Buffs was doing it out of his own will, and I would bet you my hundred shares of Lehman that no safe word was agreed upon. Buffett doesn't want us to be fearful. I wasn't before. I am now. There's only one way this snuff film can be salvaged and here what is is: I read this thing online. I'll get the print edition later and for the sake of the economy, I pray that there's a Jackie Treehorn-esque pencil rub on the page. Otherwise, I'll take it as tacit acknowledgement that O Cubed thinks we're fucked.
Buy American. I Am. [NYT]
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:17AM
http://www.collegehumor.com/video:1884457
Great CNBC clip from the Merc!
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:17AM
Will someone please tell Mark Haines to shut up!
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:18AM
marc haynes blows can't watch that old pervert salivating over that lil' piece of Irirsh ass Burnett. Put a mask and muzzle on that ol' fruitcake.
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:18AM
give us a picture - PLEASE! what a naughty girl
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:19AM
spell his name right, half wit.
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:19AM
crtl-F is faster.
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:20AM
Bess, you sure mix one hell of a caucasian.
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:20AM
at #1 please don't play that ol' clip. It brings back bad memories of hanging out with marc Haynes and Eric Bolling Ty.
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:21AM
give us a picture - PLEASE! what a naughty girl
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:21AM
Why is everyone so obsessed with Bess? She probably has chocolate dripping off off her thighs. If you are that hard up over some chick who blogs on a website than you havent gotten any in a loooong time.
Warren Buffett is my homeboy
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:22AM
i could go for a white russian
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:23AM
i could go for a white russian
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:23AM
Im with 6, why not just Ctrl F
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:24AM
can the dipshits hating on Haines at least spell his name right? just once?
Posted by Lowly Assistant , Oct 17, 2008 9:24AM
I could go for an oreo blizzard, cut with the finest Cambodian breast milk this side of the Mason-Dixon. O^3 had me at "hello."
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:24AM
alt+E+F are you ctrl-F-ing kidding me? get with the program.
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:25AM
@16- you need to get out more.
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:27AM
Fuck me.
And we got a Democrat coming into office next year.
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:27AM
getting upset over someone not knowing about ctrl-F = the excel monkey is about to crack.
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:27AM
Consult Bald, Beard, Bush, Buffet B4 you buy your stocks.
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:28AM
no register link:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html?em
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:30AM
maybe buffett's really saying "buy american. i did. (and the bottom's not in. and i need you to be a sucker and bail my butt on my too-early "buy american" portion of my portfolio.)
darkcloud
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:31AM
Why is Buffet doing this BS ?
I know he is too old but has he gone bonkers by anychance ? No female nearby ?
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:31AM
maybe buffett's really saying "buy american. i did. (and the bottom's not in. and i need you to be a sucker and bail my butt on my too-early "buy american" portion of my portfolio.)
darkcloud
Posted by Seaman Bodine , Oct 17, 2008 9:34AM
he did this right after 9-11, saying "nobody every profits from betting against america" and then he proceeded to short the dollar for 5 years
talking the book baby
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:34AM
@17 I'm still waiting for those TPS reports.
- @16
Posted by diablo , Oct 17, 2008 9:34AM
Bess is a genius, what else can be said?
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:35AM
maybe buffett's really saying "buy american. i did. (and the bottom's not in. and i need you to be a sucker and bail my butt on my too-early "buy american" portion of my portfolio.)
darkcloud
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:35AM
maybe buffett's really saying "buy american. i did. (and the bottom's not in. and i need you to be a sucker and bail my butt on my too-early "buy american" portion of my portfolio.)
darkcloud
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:35AM
maybe buffett's really saying "buy american. i did. (and the bottom's not in. and i need you to be a sucker and bail my butt on my too-early "buy american" portion of my portfolio.)
darkcloud
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:36AM
maybe buffett's really saying "buy american. i did. (and the bottom's not in. and i need you to be a sucker and bail my butt on my too-early "buy american" portion of my portfolio.)
darkcloud
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:38AM
Buffett has a HUGE need to be admired and lauded. He wants to be seen as a hero, a savior.... yet wants 10% plus in-the-money warrants to do so, so he ain't Albert Schweitzer.
This is just one more "see how important and influential I am - I can write an op-ed and people will listen and the markets will turn around and I will be the reason why!"
I used to really like Buffett a lot. Last few years, though - the folksy, weirdly-sexual thing is beginning to grate, and for all his aw-shucks he does seem to get his proverbial pound of flesh out of his investments, while the taxpayers get out-of-the-money warrants (that aren't even priced yet!).
Be a hero, Warren - take the same deal as the government, or HELP the government get the same deal as you. Stop telling everyone to follow along with you.
He's like L. Ron Hubbard with a spreadsheet and a back office.
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:39AM
WOW! Just after 9am and we've already got a Peter North reference.
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:39AM
darkcloud go back to fucking up you back office job
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:43AM
#5 i'll kick your fucking arse his name is being spelt in the old anglican style just to get a rise out of you TOOLS FUCK OFF.
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:43AM
Seriously dark cloud, shouldnt you be fixing my trade breaks from yesterday? Be good and ill send you home a little early today so you can hit the bars in Canarsie with your other guido friends, talking about how you work on "the street". Toolbox
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:43AM
Bottom not in. Go long at your own peril. Trade if you have balls and experience, otherwise get small and cash.
Posted by Seaman Bodine , Oct 17, 2008 9:47AM
@37
grow a sack
for the average 401k nimrod to not be long some low cost way to cover the MSCI World Index is insane...you really think we're going to 6000? that's gayer than two men having sex
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:47AM
I laughed at the Oreo Blizzard reference, but then I realized that I have no fucking idea what that means.
Still funny.
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:49AM
@39 -- uh, it's a Dairy Queen dessert? Visualize.
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:50AM
Nothing to worry about, Donny. These men are nihilists.
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:50AM
@39- berkshire hathaway owns dairy queen, the purveyor of the blizzard:
http://dealbreaker.com/2007/09/reward-one-oreo-blizzard.php
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:50AM
You're out of your element, Donny
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:50AM
I'm eagerly waiting to see if my $13 investment in GS stocks and $13 in JPM stocks breaks $26 today!
And yes, I bought before Buffet said "Buy American."
If I do well in the stock market, I'm buying lace curtains for my cardboard box!
-- Out in Front of the Curve
Posted by Seaman Bodine , Oct 17, 2008 9:52AM
that wasn't her toe dude
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 9:57AM
@44...you lace curtain irish motherfucker!
Bess, fantastic post. O cubed and a freeze frame of Jackie Treehorn's sketch. You still bring it strong everyday. Thanks.
STAY THE HELL OUT OF MALIBU LEBOWSKY!!!
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 10:08AM
@ 32 - Hallelujah
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 10:16AM
Erin Burnett, is trying to steal mark's show and I want mark to have his shwo back and let her go on cramer's show and leave mark alone!
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 10:19AM
do as i say not as i do - goof ball old man
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 10:22AM
I will be the next tresury secretary under Obama. buy american since the hedge funds will annilate all stocks. Getting ready to trash the hedge funds with my new rules - goof ball old man
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 10:22AM
38, recession value of the S&P models at 800. That's using the last "normal" recession. This recession will be worse than that. You might argue that earnings will be better than last recession, but if/when this recession is worse...
There's no reason to buy now. If you trade intelligently, you can raise some capital, but unhedged long...bad idea.
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 10:26AM
I have my stocks for twenty years. Haven't done that well. Will be working forever.
Need to make money as we just realized we are totally screwed and our friends have realized the same. There is no retiring for the boomers, just continue to work, work, work,
Posted by prgy , Oct 17, 2008 10:29AM
@ 48 you are a total moron. First, learn to spell, second, get a life and third you must be very lonely.
Posted by Seaman Bodine , Oct 17, 2008 10:30AM
@51 - oh really, that's where it "models"...boy, you must have it all figured out
funny, you probably went to cash in 2002 too, as the S&P probably "modelled" to 500
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 10:37AM
"We gotta be like Peter North out there.", solid
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 10:41AM
at 55 you're a fluffer fuck off homo.
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 10:44AM
I'm a hedge fund manager. who's warren buffett?
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 10:46AM
So Costa just said "I'm an american".
Has Buffet made it unpatriotic to say anything but "buy"?
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 10:49AM
That video that CNBC is showing of the soldier seeing his little daughter, well, let's just say, if you need a good cry, watch the video, you won't be sorry.
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 10:52AM
Say what you will about the tenets of national socialism, but at least its an ethos..
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 10:52AM
the buffet editorial should be red with "I'm proud to be an American" playing in the background.
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 10:53AM
what does buffet's editorial have to do with the color red? chinese nationalism?
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 11:21AM
@48 what 'recession model' are you using? Are you looking back at the low of 2002? Why not look to the 1930's and claim the Dow is going to 41?
Buffett is speaking out because he knows tons of American suckers who have been averaging into their 401k's for the last 10 years are about to step out now in the midst of a massive deleveraging spiral.
If you are talking about long-term retirement money, selling now only makes sense if you're surely going to buy back in lower.
The people who lose are the ones who chase sentiment.
Posted by evan7257 , Oct 17, 2008 11:23AM
Its not an editorial, its an opinion column. Editorials are written by the editorial board.
...
wait...
Did WB buy the NYTIMES???
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 12:15PM
seaman is a loser
Posted by Headless Horseman , Oct 17, 2008 12:33PM
A bunch of overleveraged dub street wannabes and has-beens (for which a big night out entails a place with bottle service "crushing" Red Bulls with Grey Goose) are critiquing and second guessing a letter from arguably the most successful investor of our time? Really? Grey Goose? With Red Bull?
That’s rich. Yeah, I agree. This Buffet character certainly doesn’t seem to know his shit. Just look at his pathetic track record.
I’ve hung out with a good deal of wall streeters and they’re often worse than economists in terms of their capacity for bullshit. They talk and talk and talk. I’ve never seen such hostile and wide-ranging disagreements, yet nobody in the room is ever the least bit afflicted by a sense of doubt.
I built a model. It predicts that about 30% of the people employed on Wall Street as of Q2 were engaged in unsustainable, non-value producing activity. In vain attempts to justify the existence of their jobs they’ve continually creating investment vehicles that are so complicated that nobody has the faintest idea how to value them. How many people are employed to facilitate and cover the exchange of millions of shares of a given issue each day even though nothing in the fundamentals of the underlying company has changed to an even remotely material degree? Everyday thousands of people pour over every last piece of news justifying and rationalizing why this stock or that one moved a half-percent one way or another. The S&P closed down 12 points today on weak (never mind inaccurate) employment numbers and fears of civil unrest in South Africa? WTF? Reminds me of when BBC unknowingly reported the previous day’s close on Thanksgiving (when the NYSE wasn’t even open) and amazingly still had explanations for what drove the day’s activity!!
It appears the party’s winding down. It’s time for everyone to pull up their panties, feel around for their self respect, take a swig of mouthwash, and head for the door. I hold degrees in finance, economics, and accounting and understand that Wall Street has value in facilitating liquidity, and providing a venue through which risk may be diversified. I don’t understand the value in equity analysts with shit track records. I don’t need someone to tell me which horse to bet on five minutes after the race was run, even if they weren’t wrong 40% of the time. Retail investment is 90% sales and 10% analysis. The SEC lacks both balls and teeth. Most i-bank trading departments contribute more to the volatility of the markets than they do to the profitability of their firms. Corporate America spends as much time putting on dog and pony shows for Wall Street as they do managing their businesses. Personally, I get a boner just imagining the number of hours (weeks, years, etc.) some of you have spent window dressing the corpse!
When the number of people aboard a boat outstrips the number of paddles the boat stops moving. When additional unproductive people climb aboard the boat begins to take on water. Eventually the people with the paddles chase off the slackers and the boat proceeds along its course. Right now the water’s a little choppy and Wall Street is simply witnessing a lot of slackers and stow-a-ways leaping off the bow…‘twas ever thus. My question is this: are you holding a life vest or a paddle?
Get down,
HH
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 12:41PM
Suck it Buffet.
"No one want to buy your drugs here...Louie" - Trading Places
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 12:45PM
HH puts the smackdown. I concur.
goof ball old man?
bitch, please.
-rude morgue
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 12:47PM
What are these dumbass retail longs doing on this site? Bunch of panic buyers afraid they'll miss the bottom because they saw options expiration and a bear market rally that didn't last two total trading days.
Morons.
If the S&P is fairly valued at 12 times earnings, that's $68 a share in a recession and 800. So when anyone talks about 800 as a level, that's what they're talking about. That's your base fundamental starting point.
Some stuff is already pulverized well below fair recession value or, in some cases, liquidation value. That's the fault of hedge funds. These are safely buyable long term. That's the sort of thing Buffet is buying.
There simply is not fundamental support for the S&P at large above those numbers and P/E's. A lengthy credit-driven recession and a permanently less-leveraged economy is not going to support premium P/E's.
If you aren't playing long term fundamentals, you are either panic buying or you are trading on gut - as the short term technicals have been supremely unreliable. Trading on psychology can work, but it's dangerous as hell, particularly when you are trading against hedge funds.
If you don't know more about the moves of the market other than "it's down" or "it's up" i.e. why it is down or up and whether that is justified or not, you shouldn't be in it to any real size at this point.
Can the panic buying.
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 1:05PM
69 - what, you think we're just out here blindly buying SPY? right, we're all just diving headlong into the index or maybe buying BAC because it looks so damn attractive. you probably are right that the index doesn't look good, because it is full of a bunch of shit stocks. no asshole, it's time to do your fucking homework and buy what actually is a value, 2-3x p/e, 2x cash flow, etc.
there are retail longs posting on db? outside of some guy that got lost here from VA, I doubt it. but there is no shortage of losers that have nothing to do but whine. its easy to be a pessimist but let's see where you stand 5 yrs from now following your strategy.
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 1:48PM
Warren once penned a similar article for either Fortune or BW back in 1979/80.It used to get reprinted often in the Journal of Portfolio Management.
Timing isn't WB's forte.
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 2:16PM
i was going to make the comment 16 made.
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 2:21PM
You want a toe? I can get you a toe, believe me. I can get you a toe by 3 oclock this afternoon, with nail polish.
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 4:46PM
Based on the behavior in the last two rallies, it looks like there is an awful lot of dumb money piling into everything on an uptick.
Markets do not bottom in five days and spike V rebound, not without people crashing planes into buildings. If you think they do, you can't read basic charts and your opinion is worthless. The S&P and Dow bounced around in a crater for NINE MONTHS in 2002. And that was after they found a bottom. If you bought the September 11 crash, you were dead for two years. If you bought March 2001, it was three years.
This downturn will be a lot worse than 2002. It hit the money machine in the balls. I seriously doubt there is any major turnaround from whatever bottom we hit within nine months of doing so.
If you just have to buy RIGHT NOW because you will MISS THE RECOVERY if you wait, you are being a hog. Hogs get slaughtered. If this is the bottom, you will be fine if you wait a few months and confirm there is no further leg down - and that there isn't some systemic horror show that we haven't stopped yet. Given the nature of the problem we have this time, that there is something else is a real probability.
I'd say its more likely than not that there's another steel toe boot to drop, but no matter how you weight it, risk-reward analysis does not justify going in hand-over-fist on anything. Even if this is only as bad as 2002 - HA - you will not lose anything by waiting.
I will add in closing that everyone who has chased upticks and bargain ideas so far in 2008 - in almost any asset class - has gotten their head blown off with a double-barrled shotgun.
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 7:48PM
This post was going well until Bess made her credibility rather questionable with alt-e-f... It really makes it hard to take someone's supposedly intelligent analysis seriously when they simultaneously tell you that they drive to work their car in a traffic jam every morning to get to work...even though they work at home.
Posted by guest , Oct 17, 2008 8:05PM
"A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful," Buffett, 78, said in an opinion piece published Friday in The New York Times. "Most certainly, fear is now widespread."
Last time I heard this "Buy America" bullshit was 9:00AM of the first day the market opened after 9/11. I think it was the New York Pension Trust something or whatever invested a significant amount that morning to show their support for America and CNBC had appointed themselves head cheerleader for the slaughter. 25 months later and the lambs were still screaming.
It was screaming, some kind of screaming like a child's voice. I was so scared to look inside but I just had to. And I saw double digit unemployment and inflation. I tried to free them with lower interest rates but they just stood there, confused. They wouldn't spend or incure more debt.
SPODE
Posted by guest , Oct 18, 2008 1:06AM
Yawn. Another money manager talking his book. What he doesn't mention to his NYT readers is that putting money in a closet index mutual fund isn't the same as his sweet preferred stock deals.
Posted by guest , Oct 18, 2008 3:33AM
The only way to get the OECD out of an inbound stagflation (the alternative being a shift to a Volker strategy) is to agitate gross investment. Romer wrote some good shit on what happens when your savings do not transpose into capital formation. Buy a copy of R&R if you have no idea what I just said.
/B/
Posted by guest , Oct 18, 2008 3:34AM
The only way to get the OECD out of an inbound stagflation (the alternative being a shift to a Volker strategy) is to agitate gross investment. Romer wrote some good shit on what happens when your savings do not transpose into capital formation. Buy a copy of R&R if you have no idea what I just said.
W.B as a talking head for bullying capital formation doesn't sound as stupid as NYT makes it out to be.
/B/