Yeah, I thought it was redundant too, but you people in the comments are asking for it. Fine. But this time there are going to be some serious rules. M’kay?
1. Closest guess to the Dow closing number, without going under wins.
2. Guessing will be cut off when we post the “no more bets” comment in this post. That will be right around 3 pm Eastern.
Ready? Go.
Update: 8379. That makes this:
Posted by guest, Oct 24, 2008 12:59PM
8380 up up down up down
Our winner.
8250
8000
8115
8050
9fbf8be2bf07ed66658e299f190c0d44
8147
8675.309
8179
8173
8558
7996
9100
1 dollar Bob.
8499
1 Billion
7750
8020
Dave
7800
8432
7902.23
8217
7902.23
Can someone email this in as a tip? Can’t email DBreaker from work email…
See below – from the Bond Buyer:
CHICAGO – Merrill Lynch & Co. – which is being acquired by Bank of America Corp. – fired more than a dozen public finance bankers and as many as 10 sales and trading professionals this week as the brokerage firm trims its ranks amid a grim economic outlook, several sources said yesterday.
The cuts come just a few months after Merrill added about 30 bankers from the shuttered public finance group of UBS Financial Services Inc. to its existing team of about 120 bankers. The cuts affect the sales, trading, underwriting, and banking groups, sources said. The sources, however, differed on the number of layoffs. As part of the cuts, the firm closed its Pittsburgh office, leaving its one banker there at the vice president level without a job, according to sources.
One source described the cuts as more than a dozen but well below 20 and affecting mostly junior positions. But other sources said that figure included only bankers and that another 10 or so muni salespeople and traders were cut. That source also named at least one banker at the managing director level that was fired.
8020
Dave
8179
Dow 36,000 due to Fed cutting the fed funds rates 800bps to negative 5.50.
Can someone email this in as a tip? Can’t email DBreaker from work email…
See below – from the Bond Buyer:
CHICAGO – Merrill Lynch & Co. – which is being acquired by Bank of America Corp. – fired more than a dozen public finance bankers and as many as 10 sales and trading professionals this week as the brokerage firm trims its ranks amid a grim economic outlook, several sources said yesterday.
The cuts come just a few months after Merrill added about 30 bankers from the shuttered public finance group of UBS Financial Services Inc. to its existing team of about 120 bankers. The cuts affect the sales, trading, underwriting, and banking groups, sources said. The sources, however, differed on the number of layoffs. As part of the cuts, the firm closed its Pittsburgh office, leaving its one banker there at the vice president level without a job, according to sources.
One source described the cuts as more than a dozen but well below 20 and affecting mostly junior positions. But other sources said that figure included only bankers and that another 10 or so muni salespeople and traders were cut. That source also named at least one banker at the managing director level that was fired.
8293
8850
22.50…oh wait, I thought you were talking about Dow Chemical.
DJIA 7750.
8133
8217
8776
FI Nagler
Close at 9025. Bottom at about 2:30 under 8000
0Toro.
8424
8141
8227
0Toro.
8274
8,385 and holding
0Toro.
8603.3
8453
Credit
7950
8124
8176
7935.69
8390
8388.07
8818.95
7666. Still think the Anti Christ is walking out of there in handcuffs today….
i-c-d
8140
I am writing DB-Dow protection notes current market is 8 @ 12 EURS for an 8250 strike. You get 16% yield and you pay Lib + 500 and take the 30% – 60% capital structure.
Any hedge funds interested in making a side market based on the 3/2 root of my projected cash flows divided by the aggregate sales of red paint and toenail clippers in Utah?
I see nothing wrong with this…
7987.81
8152
7100
8269 -Dan
7239
8169
Posted by guest, Oct 24, 2008 9:48AM
Yo wait – it be stoppin – I call 8050 by eob
-Moneygrip Wisdom
========================================
That was comment 22 on earlier thread- I still be holdin to 8050 @ EOB n39ro3s!
-Moneygrip Wisdom
8199
8088
8620
7887 if we see another sell-off at trading session end or stabilizing at 8620 if no more sellers are left……
10000
8000.5
negative infinity?
8713.57
8380 up up down up down
up up down down left right left right
8888.7
B A Select Start!
8443
@74, 75, 77. Thank you.
7907.17
9200
8287
Things must be bad…Michell Caruso Cabrera is starting to look doable.
NO MORE BETS
jk. 8185
7957
why do influental people not manipulate a little bit positively economic numbers or encourage to publish the news flow more positive which the markets follows closely, people then think about stop selling and reinvesting and confidence comes back to investors and the consumers, market expectations become positive and things would then turn into positive territory. and months later the numbers will be revised, but people are not focused on it anymore because things are better. so USA think about it and markets will close today at 8289.
7957
8431 -Jlo
reversal bitches:
8840.00
8212
ppd
Dow 20,000!
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB120615098415256845.html?mod=b_hps_9_0001_b_this_weeks_magazine_home_right
8484
icelandic boi APPROVES!!
why do influental people not manipulate a little bit positively economic numbers or encourage to publish the news flow more positive which the markets follows closely, people then think about stop selling and reinvesting and confidence comes back to investors and the consumers, market expectations become positive and things would then turn into positive territory. and months later the numbers will be revised, but people are not focused on it anymore because things are better. so USA think about it and markets will close today at 8289.
October 24th, 1929. check it out.
@ 84 – is there any way i can short you?
8373.21
I am the CEO of a hedge fund. What is “the Dow”?
8191
8373.21
I am the CEO of a hedge fund. Where are my diapers?
DOW 8542
8055 by eob
as far as long-term, i wish it goes to hell
EP, what do we win?
8750 DWH
8118
L2classic@yahoo.com
Greed is good.
http://www.entertonement.com/clips/13548/Wall-Street/Michael-Douglas/Gordon-Gecko/Greed-is-Good
8222.30
8173.91
8415
7887
~Bad Leg Quezada
84,91 They’ve been doing that all the way down and no one buys their BS. Hedonic adjustments to CPI, birth/death adjustments to NFP, etc.
8023
-Smokey
8173.91
8076
8750 DWH
8642
007-373-5963
8212
cy
8000
Same as my IQ.
Sticking with 8320, as in previous thread — jw
7995
8722
8330
7550
Trex
8056
BDB
8357.21 J-E-T-S! Jets! Jets! Jets!
7969
7550
Trex
hey ep – much as I loathe agreeing with prgy, what’s the booty from this contest for one fortunate prognosticator?
8400
-DK
7893
nb
8311.27
8376
-S&P Ratings
8410.1
8105
http://paul.kedrosky.com/WindowsLiveWriter/Dow36000.Or3600.OrSomething_731C/dow-30000_2.png
Would you all mind waiting until my Elliot Wave guy calls me back? He thinks we could be in a Supercycle 1 after an a-b-c coming out of an extended 5 wave with supplemetal waves indicating an inter 3 of a 5 count before the “a” gets confirmed by the “B” retracement on the intraday “c” we are in now.
I’d really appreciate it as he gets migraines all the time and can be grouchy.
8111
7999
8500.01
8234.95
8234.95
stw in nyc
8234.95
stw in nyc
8011.95
Russ
8287.5
8280
8280
LEHbark!
8280
LEHbark!
8076
EK in NYC
8234.95
stw in nyc
8164.32
8302
8008
@84 and 91 – Simple. Manipulating economic figures in the US assumes that the US is the only market trading in the world. So for example, if US shows imports from Japan rising 10%, then the Japanese data has to show exports to USA fulfilling that rise. re: encouraging positive newsflow, well, policymakers do do that the whole time. Many told us the economy was “fundamentally sound” only weeks ago. It only ends up hurting people.
8400.21
Just caught them discussing the stock market on Rush Limbaugh.
Never listen to the radio but the television is on the fritz. Nice to have a break from CNBC. But wow, lot of angry people on the radio.
8160
8176
8888
8580
8580 -Ryan
8281
8170
8401.75
bcad
8725
God
7932.35
8314
8050
8234.95
stw in nyc
Did Rush happen to mention what Oxycontin is going for these days?
~BO
“….But it was the lawyer’s suggestion that Mr. O’Byrne suffered from late-filing syndrome that raised the most eyebrows on Wednesday.
Late-filing syndrome, sometimes known as nonfiling syndrome or failure-to-file syndrome, is not listed in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders. A spokeswoman for the American Psychiatric Association said that the group does not recognize it as a psychiatric condition.
But legal experts said that it is not uncommon for tax evaders to claim they suffer from such a syndrome, because it can shield them from criminal penalties.
“If the I.R.S. is going to pursue more serious sanctions, they’re going to have to demonstrate a voluntary and intentional decision not to file,” said Gerald Kafka, a lawyer with Latham & Watkins in Washington, who specializes in tax law. “The burden is on the I.R.S. to demonstrate it was intentional.”
http://betsyspage.blogspot.com/
Lately I’ve been having symptoms, do you think I’m catching “late filing syndrome”?
8301.30 b*tches
8301.30 b*tches
8545
8040
8743
FI Nagler
7999
8433.40…yup thats where it will close today and I’m calling it!
7823.
Down 10%. Shutdown in the last 30 minutes of trading.
8279
8315.98
16:00
8577
8174.9
8016
8171
8171
jchicago
8016
8016…preston
8040
80085
Vegas here I come!
so, the winner gets to take ep to lunch at the place of her choice?
Hey @ 127. FUNdamental, I don’t need you on my side. Don’t ever agree with me again ass clown.
8040
Can we get a thread on Brennan’s pearl necklace?
betsyspage – DIAF
8691.25 + today’s change
7997 – we’re going down
8433.40
8111
4235
4235
7894 at close
LUNAR CYCLES!
7804.20
8042
8433
7991
7956.43
8314.36
7986.23 dbag
“The SEC took a record number of enforcement actions against market manipulation in FY 2008, including charges against a Wall Street short seller for spreading false rumors, and charging 10 insiders or promoters of publicly traded companies who made stock sales in exchange for illegal kickbacks.
Among the major fraud cases brought by the SEC in FY 2008, the SEC sued two Bear Stearns hedge fund managers for fraudulently misleading investors about the financial state of the firm’s two largest hedge funds. The agency also charged five former employees of the City of San Diego for failing to disclose to the investing public buying the city’s municipal bonds that there were funding problems with its pension and retiree health care obligations and those liabilities had placed the city in serious financial jeopardy.
The SEC brought the highest number ever of insider trading cases in FY 2008, including charging former Dow Jones Board Member David Li and three other Hong Kong residents in a $24 million insider trading enforcement action, and charging the former chairman and CEO of a division of Enron Corp. with illegally selling hundreds of thousands of shares of Enron stock based on nonpublic information.”
http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008-254.htm
8390.01
8123
7922.50
don’t lunar cycles correspond to menstrual cycles? someone on the floor ask burnett if she feels bloated.
7986.23 dbag
7987
“7890″ Without Hank…
8,500 with Hank..
7929.09
“New” moon on the 28th…..Look out below!
8275
8305
8271
7914
8305
8061.37
8211.19
Rustycut
8692…
-AH
7929
8211.19
Rustycut
8000.
8423
7922
8516
and the Phillies win the world series
8322
8081
8413.25
CJW
Rays in 6.
8272.3
8614
8294 MRG
8009
Condor
8009
Condor
8675.309
8294 MRG
8512.13
LTT
8280
LEHbark!
8213
JM in Houston
8102.4
8451
S Mansfield
8534.98
JK
8315
8401.75
bcad
8557.20
Rush is talking about the “October Surprise” in connection with the stock market?
No more beats.
8555.55
8097.5
start the helicopters ben
8001
8021
8021
Hehe…
8200.
8480
8383
SPODE
8555.55
8531
8245
No more bets.
8345
8460
8700
9000
Cramer
8401
8558
8401
8750.
8501
8501
8501
8245
7000
Cramer (that way i have both ways covered)
No more bets….
:)
8801…the sun will come out tomorrow, tomorrow.
who the hell is buying today?
8345
8345
“Bessy” could be please block cluzo.
8350
#287 i 2nd that emotion. Cluzo is a cyberbully!! He adds no value to blog.
If cluzo goes then I go two!
Thanks cluzo, I will hang on until tomorrow.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yop62wQH498
Its only a day away and I have two more cans of beans to eat.
Did you vote for the NASCAR swag cluzo?
SPODE
8414…8414…8414
@ 290. Spode I love you, but why are you defending cluzo? Next to me you are the best poster on DB.
nice spode…not a nascar fan, so I didn’t rock the vote. where’s the link?
btw, @289 are you suggesting that these comments ADD value:
http://dealbreaker.com/profile/prgy
perhaps, we should block you. given all of the comments related to me – I’m thinking about a cyber restraining order. I’m sitting in meetings and people are posting about me, talk about a stalker central.
Phils in 7
to Cluzo peeps are “stalking” you because you are a bully and annoying. Other than that I could give a rat’s ass about your pompous self.
I’ll leave you alone if you stop stalking me.
8512, Andy in mpls
@prgy
Spending x number of years full of trenbal and busting balls mercilessly didn’t get me far, now I try to get along with everyone. Life is too short.
Cluzo, here is the original post. Prgy don’t forget to vote.
http://dealbreaker.com/2008/10/oooo-tough-break.php#c19
#94…. nice work!
Winner, @94/@97 – 8373.21
#74?
Winner?
284 – look at the volume tape and the size of that last sellblock.
Someone was pumping the market for end-of-day liquidation. Most of those runs could have been sold at a gain at the end of the day – in addition to preventing a black hole when you absolutely, positively have to liquidate today.
Pretty obvious when you read tape on this crap volume, but I like it.
Read the rules -
Without going UNDER
it looks like 74 is the winner
@74
Looks like you won. But from my past experience as a “winner” here, I can tell you there’s no prize.
Well, TGFD tried his hand at an ETF trade today. I bought a few minutes too early this morning, and I sold a few minutes too early right before the close.
Result? TGFD lost $792.
The Guy from Delaware
No prize needed. -PD
Stupid plunge-protecting liquidators prevented us from hitting sell targets on our market shorts.
Ah well, we got a chunk of them. try again Monday.
TGFD
Covered call writing. There are some excellent dividend yielding stocks right now.
DAMN ! Missed it by 6 over …
Congrats to the winner.
The Prize is the honor of calling the shot for the day.
“Still”, my model hasn’t been off by more than 26 points +/- all month (except for that one day at band-camp last week when oil jumped up 7% and the Stock Market rallies — WTF? Was Greenspan speaking somewhere?)
;-p