Posted by guest , Oct 21, 2008 6:02PM

Everyone's guidance has been so hammered down, I wouldn't take much away from them beating estimates

Posted by guest , Oct 21, 2008 6:06PM

E*Trade = scared people gambling to make a buck? I have seen this a lot. Sadly.

Apple has a lot of obsessed consumers as well as young people saving up to buy one of their trinkets. Again its sad to watch people do that.

Posted by guest , Oct 21, 2008 6:17PM

Yawn. Let's see how Apple does in the new age of frugality. Nobody is going to be buying a $1300 laptop when a $800 one will do.

Yahoo is doomed. Jerry Yang is going to destroy more shareholder value than Dick Fuld.

Posted by guest , Oct 21, 2008 6:20PM

Understood that> Don't get why Alex Thisthlthwaite still blows Stefan Judisch (no, he's Catholic(

Posted by guest , Oct 21, 2008 6:25PM

Thistlethwaite? Agree, pretty fucked-up name. Like the boy.

Posted by guest , Oct 21, 2008 6:28PM

Not only does AAPL usually give low guidance you must remember that as more of their income transitions to the iPhone, those numbers are being spread out over 8 quarters. So this quarter they only booked 1/8 of all of their iPhone sales. Assuming they knock it out of the park next quarter on holiday iPhone sales, they will only be booking 1/8th of those sales as GAAP revenue, hence the especially low guidance.

Posted by guest , Oct 21, 2008 6:36PM

iphone sales or subscription services?

Posted by guest , Oct 21, 2008 6:40PM

E*Trade will live. Yahoo won't.

And lawlz @ no official recession. The government lies and everyone knows it. We're not sacking this many people in any "expansion."

Posted by guest , Oct 21, 2008 7:23PM

I was reading a "regular person" blog today and these "regular people" were asking where the bad recession is? They were deliberately shopping to show their support of the country. They were reporting that the malls were jammed and people were buying.

I was in the mall this weekend. It was packed, people were buying. Either there is a huge disconnect between main street and wall street and the beltway or something else is brewing here.

Posted by guest , Oct 21, 2008 7:31PM

@ 10 -- where the hell do you live?

Posted by guest , Oct 21, 2008 7:34PM

#11, you sound like the people who kept saying the apple stores were empty, yet, every time I was in one it was jammed.

Go look at your mall. Go see if people are carrying bags.

Posted by guest , Oct 21, 2008 8:10PM

10/12 = moron.

Retailer numbers were dreadful before the credit freeze and market crash. The lack of cash for the average American isn't much of a secret - at least 1/6th of them are literally insolvent when you factor in the underwater house.

Between statistics and anecdotes, I'm going with the statistics every time.

Posted by guest , Oct 21, 2008 8:26PM

Re: Malls, sales & dumb-asses (opps, I mean, patriots) shopping.

I also see little drop in mall/shopping traffic. However, there is a drop in sales. But, the peasants still think that credit-card money will never have to be paid back, so they are using credit and paying the minimums - as you'd expect of dumb-ass peasants that can't think further than the next TV commercial.

The adjustment process for the peasantry will be painful. And the “new frugality” nonsense appearing on the more liberal financial sites is just that: nonsense. “Frugality” implies the ability to think. The American peasants will do what their TV tells them too. And the voices in the TV are still telling them to buy, buy, buy. They’ll start selling their kids to support their habit.

It’ll take years for the peasantry to exhaust all their available credit.

Posted by guest , Oct 21, 2008 8:50PM

Some reverse class angst from some elite (I guess!) in #14.

You must be one of those chablis and swiss cheese type liberals, to so effortlessly equate patriotism with being a dumb-ass. You are also one of those people planning to move to Canada if things dont turn out your way here, right?

Also, I like how you divide the world simply into 2 parts = clever thinking rich treasonous liberals and dumb-ass poor patriotic conservatives. Let me guess - you are voting for Obama?

Btw, you think that the adjustment process will only be painful for the peasantry? Lets say the peasant stopped shopping, realized that spending money on $100 sneakers, movies, needless laptops etc is incorrect. So tomorrow - all of the sellers to these peasants - tech companies, auto companies, hardware companies - basically everyone has revenues down 60%.

Now once that happens, where will the elites financiers, tech guys. lawyers, movie stars, TV personalities, bloggers make their money from? Once the masses stop buying - where is the need for people to design, sell and finance stuff for them? And last I checked - there is precious little the 'elites' are capable of outside of that.

So, you still think the peasants will be the only ones hurt? And do you still suffer from the misconception that you have 'frugality' or the 'ability to think'?

Posted by guest , Oct 21, 2008 9:23PM

I don't believe that in us and them. I believe that the majority of US buy things we don't need with money we don't have.

Currently consumption is 70% of GDP - the USA doesn't make things it buys things. In the last 5 years the average consumer/usa citizen has been spending about 110-120% of their income.

Some of the worst offenders have been the very well off who have used their stock (LEH) as the asset which the lever off of. That is why the COO of LEH is currently trying to sell most of the stuff he bought using the credit of his LEH stock.

Now with layoffs and lack off access to credit - that consumption is coming to halt. If you think you are doing anything for your country by continuing to spend you are WRONG.

A true patriot will realizewe are all in this together. A true patriot will also quit spending and try and figure out a life plan based on production and sustainability. Because that is the only thing that is going to get us through this horrible mess.

Spending money you don't have because you don't think you are ever going to have to actually pay for your purchase means that the company you buy from is going to LOSE money. Meaning that they will have to LAY OFF more people meaning less people will have any money to spend, meaning less revenue for the company, meaning more lay offs. All of this = DEATH SPIRAL.

The defination of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome.

To go back to my orginal point - we have all been spending money we don't have on things we don't need. That is what got us into this situation. Do you really think it is going to get us out of this situation?

We are all in for a world of hurt. This is not and us and them scenerio - this is a WE scenerio.

Since last October the WORLD has LOST HALF OF ITS EQUITY WEALTH - $29 TRILLION. The negative wealth effect will be devasting.

We have just begun to see the strain of tighter credit on consumer spending. So how about all the smart people on this blog get ahead of the curve and quit buying anything on credit. In fact quit buying anything you don't need.

Liberal/conservative - who gives a fuck? Quit getting controlled by the label of US and THEM. And start thinking WE.

Posted by guest , Oct 21, 2008 9:47PM

#16 said "A true patriot will also quit spending and try and figure out a life plan based on production and sustainability."

Really? Where do they teach you all this stuff? Still, lets analyze. As a true patriot (let us wildly asume) - what is your understanding of 'production and sustainability'?

Is the tape->CD->iPod gen1,2,3->nano->iphone sequence sustainable? Is spending so much that a company that simply displays ads on searches makes billions of dollars sustainable? Is making healthcare free for high-school dropout when high-school dropouts in most of the world semi-starving and living in shacks sustainable? Is having 100 sports teams, 1000's of 'artists' who lead lavish lifestyles sustainable? Is this blog sustainable without the consumerism driven ad model that supports it?

Let us say the answer to all of the above is no. So now what does the 70% of the population - involved in all the above (services sector broadly) do when we get to that answer? Go back to working in plants? But then what will the lower 50% do? Where will they get welfare/healthcare from and what will keep them from regressing to the level that their simsilarly skilled brethren in the rest of the world survive at?

"Spending money ..... = DEATH SPIRAL"

But if noone spends money and decides to grow vegetables in the backyard and hunt from food, then also no one else will have jobs that do anything else. Also a 'death spiral.' So?

" WORLD has LOST HALF OF ITS EQUITY WEALTH - $29 TRILLION..."

Ever wondered how much of that is paper wealth. If I had stocks worth 10k in 2003 and then became 25k in 2007 and are now down to 12k, adjusting for inflation is that a 13k loss for me?

"quit buying anything on credit.."

While you are at it, why not also suggest that banks move away from fractional reserves or at least be forced to duration match their assets and liabilities perfectly so that there is never a run on a bank. I am guessing that you have never heard of the leverage effect of credit. Maybe we should outlaw debt and go to a cash only economy?

I am still trying to figure our whether you are an eight grader or one of those 'day traders' who believe in the gospel of Suze Orman, Ben Stein and Jim Kramer. But I one thing I do know is that you DO LIKE TO SCREAM SO THAT EVERYONE GETS YOUR POINT.

"Liberal/conservative - who gives a fuck?"
#14 (you I suppose) does. Seriously, you bring it up and then ask who cares?

Posted by guest , Oct 21, 2008 10:15PM

and...16 got trampled.

Posted by guest , Oct 21, 2008 10:25PM

@#17

Current consumption based on so much credit is just as unsustainable. You could look at it as growth that was supposed to happen over the next 15 to 20 years happening in the past 4 years. Now comes the contraction/unwinding. Living standards will fall and yes perhaps even out to that of poor people in other countries.

I wouldn't go as far as #16. But I just hope we don't have a lost decade like Japan had.

- Not 16

Posted by guest , Oct 21, 2008 10:40PM

Whose idea was it to go completely to a service economy anyway?

Posted by guest , Oct 21, 2008 10:43PM

You can trample me and say I am stupid but regular Jane and Joe Six Pack think it is patriotic to support the economy and they think they should be doing that by buying things. And, do you blame them? They were handed a check by our government and asked to spend that check and now hank and barney and ben and barbara boxer and miss nancy are making noise about giving them another check. So, they are assuming that they will be asked to spend this other check too so they think it is patriotic to spend.

Posted by guest , Oct 21, 2008 10:47PM

#19, #17 her.

I dont disagree. When part time masseuses start buying designer gowns from 5th ave stores for one-off parties (I was shocked when I heard that person say it) you know what a correction is overdue. However, when I see talking head walking point regurgitated VERY LOUDLY, along with retarded disdain for 'peasantry' and sanctimonious commentary on how they will feel the pain - I cannot resist comment.

A correction was long overdue and inevitable. However even post correction, lifestyles will continue to be higher than they have ever been either for this country or for the broader world.

Posted by guest , Oct 21, 2008 10:54PM

If the part time masseuse is a part of the underground economy, (you pay in cash, they take the cash, they don't pay tax) then, if they save their pennies, they can easily buy the dress.

But, since it can only be worn once, lest someone realize that you have the audacity to wear a dress twice, the smart masseuse will put the dress in a consignment shop and wait for the opportunity to buy the next fifth avenue store designer dress.

Posted by guest , Oct 21, 2008 11:01PM

There needs to be a middle ground between 16 and 17. As 19 pointed out, the last four years led to citizens spending and living off monopoly money; money never meant to have been in the market. What makes this all so complicated is the multitude of jobs created off this false cash, purchases made through this false cash, and attitude derived from this false cash. The natural procession of all this will be seen within the next few years, and (I'm going to sound like a wind-bag economist) the markets need to adjust to the faux entitlement we've all been spoon-fed over these last 10 years. Not everyone should have internet, cable television, German-engineered automobiles, etc. I'd like to hope many of these negligent individuals will be filtered via the mortgage implosion (as they're most likely the worst offenders), but the fact of this matter remains dire and directly related to individuals being held responsible for their own finances. It hurts that the economy is faltering due to errors in mainstreet analysis (within their abode), but real analysis points to the simple fact that none of us were as "rich" as we supposed. Spending is natural within the American psyche; however, discretion is something most Americans will need to learn and utilize in order to correct this. Things may be slow in the future, but that'll simply translate to us catching up to where we left off years ago.

Posted by guest , Oct 21, 2008 11:09PM

24=LA. Too lazy to sign in.

Posted by guest , Oct 21, 2008 11:39PM

When people first got credit cards they would pay them off every month as assumed by american express. They also could not get a credit card unless they could prove they could afford to have one. I mean, some guy on television brought his dog onto some talk show and showed the dog's brand new credit card. We all laughed but now, with reality hitting, that was really not funny. The credit card companies make money not only on the merchants but on the non payors and they are raising their interest rates. Someone I know just paid off her card in three months, twenty grand, when they would not lower the 26% interest rate. She called her state's attorney general and was summarily informed that they could charge her any interest rate they wanted. So, if people have credit card debt, and they are being charged ridiculous interest rates for the company to make enormous money, then they may as well pay the minimum as they aren't going to be able to ever really fully pay off the bill anyway. When did we go from a society that taught that you save up for something you really want and when you have the money in the bank then you buy it to a society where you buy everything you want on credit and only think about the monthly payment. I know people who make a nice salary and decide what they can afford based on monthly payments. Not on their take home pay. Is it any wonder we are having problems?

Posted by guest , Oct 21, 2008 11:49PM

#24, " Not everyone should have internet, cable television, German-engineered automobiles, etc"

Good luck explainig that. Saying that automatically means that you are saying that the rich people deserve to have more than the poor and hence you are a greedy pig who deserves to be shot.

We are entering into a political phase were equal outcome is the overarching goal, and people are ready to be equally worse off rather than unequally better off. Have not seen how healthcare is not considered to be a 'right,' hence totally burying the fact that any physical resource or physically derived resource that is limited in supply can never be a 'right', unlike freedom or privacy.

If you honestly benchmarked the lifestyle of the so-called poor and working class here to the billions of actually poor and working class in the rest of the world, you would terminate probably 90% of all welfare and redistribution programs tomorrow. Wanna take off of that happening?

Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 12:10AM

19 here

I agree with #27 here. There is a political problem but everyone seems to be talking in terms of ideologies/financial logic. People are not going to accept a lower standard of living, at least not happily. A consensus might build up for more uniform distribution of wealth. These are new realities.

Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 12:20AM

people should stop buying iphones and make their first mortgage payment this year

http://www.weeklyta.blogspot.com

Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 12:40AM

Look, you have inveterate savers and inveterate spenders and the rest are in between. I have a friend who makes an enormous amount of money. She has an excellent education and has worked very hard to get where she is. She could easily afford to go into anydesigner showroom and have them make her dress, instead, because she did not grow up well off, she clings to her macy's 20% off coupons and trots to buy whatever they have on the reduced rack in the designer evening wear section. She goes to the event and looks every bit as good as everyone else and her little secret is that she got her dress for a fraction of the cost. There are a lot of people who make little and can make the little go a long way. There are also a lot of people, who make more than me, who never have any money, are always complaining about their bills and their lack of funds and expect me, who is making less, to pay for their lunch or dinner or drinks. They always promise to pay me back and they never do. Even when they get a raise they never seem to have money. some of us have been wondering what the hell is going on when you can't, a single person live on over 400 grand.

Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 1:18AM

31 is right.

My mommy and daddy were civil service workers and I grew up in 250 dollar rent controlled apt.

They saved everything and spent very little. 18% passbook interest in the late 70's and early 80's made them millionaires many times over.

Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 1:21AM

31 is right.

My mommy and daddy were civil service workers and I grew up in 250 dollar rent controlled apt.

They saved everything and spent very little. 18% passbook interest in the late 70's and early 80's made them millionaires many times over.

Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 1:25AM

if this great nation survived 22% mortgage interest rates in the late 70's then we'll survive a bunch of overleveraged sissies losing their fancy wall street jobs.

Love,

Fancy wall street guy

Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 1:44AM

"fancy wall street "

Add 'unnecessary' to that.

- An engineer who is also technically not needed in Wall Street to do anything.

Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 1:54AM

I keep thinking about the fact that they got an engineer to unravel the problem. Wonder if he will find problems within the electronic trading platforms that no one saw or could have predicted?

Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 9:03AM

@37 Um, minority Conservative government, cocklick. With only 37% of the popular vote. And they're a bunch of old Canadian Alliance rednecks, not fiscal conservatives. Spending like drunken fucking sailors.
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2446563520080924

I don't want any more Liberal bullshit, but call me when there's a real Tory government that's prepared to reign in spending.

Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 10:16AM

Comments too long......got tired, stopped reading.

the government will save us all. stop worrying, keep spending!!!!