Is Argentina's government deliberately trying to fuck its consumers? Off the DJ wire:
Very few bonds had traded yet, but the dollar-denominated Boden 2012 was down sharply to the peso equivalent ARS136 from its open at ARS149.90.On Tuesday, President Cristina Fernandez signed a bill that, if approved by the legislature, will end the country's 14-year-old private pension fund system.
The private pension funds are set to receive very limited compensation under the proposed bill, according to a draft of the law which has been sent to Congress for debate.
The companies will "in no case (receive more than) the equivalent of the shareholder capital of the liquidated Administrators," according to the bill.
In addition, compensation will be paid with government bonds, not cash.
According to Dow Jones, Argentina's stock market fell 10% in the first 20 minutes of morning trading.
Granted -- Argentina is an extreme example, but this is the first of many to come in the emerging market space. How anyone can think that emerging markets are more sheltered from the credit freeze than the giant, federally/huge central bank-backed European and American economies just because they weren't as leveraged is beyond comprehension.
It doesn't matter that emerging markets were not leveraged on credit. If the countries whose funds that were propping up their bond markets, equity markets, and growth in general (by buying their products/services) are suffering, they will too. Claiming - as some have - that emerging markets are somehow "decoupled" from America is like saying the Merrill plant-waterer is somehow decoupled from Merrill Lynch's troubles. If the bottom falls out, the plants go too.
With spiraling oil prices and less and less liquidity around, emerging markets are going to feel pain similar to '97 in the not-too-distant future. The fact that a lot of them are running current account surpluses and have enormous sovereign wealth funds won't matter one iota either, because the point is, there will be no more income to make those surpluses sustainable any longer.
And the sovereign wealth funds that remained tied up in oil cash without diversifying into U.S. equities on the cheap will live to regret it.
Article (No Link): Argentina Stocks Down 10% After First 20 Minutes Of Trading (Dow Jones)
Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 11:46AM
First Bitches!
#5 eats my ass.
SPODE
Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 11:52AM
@SPODE
suck my balls.
Send pussies to spode@dealbreaker.com
Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 11:56AM
What about their rice markets?????
Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 11:57AM
@2 are they chocolate salty balls?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tM9rnqdAx00
SPODE
Posted by Headless Horseman , Oct 22, 2008 12:11PM
And in other breaking news...the quality of the comment threads on Dealbreaker set a new low today as the above exchange between SPODE and the ever-popular guest user feature creates a black hole of stupidity so dense it absorbs 15 minutes of time from otherwise productive employees that happen upon it (as they sit an re-read the postings in awe of the vapid douchebaggery presented before them).
@ 1-4 (yeah..this is gonna be a multi-spanking) Almost hard to beleive the market is so fucked up with thoughtful and insightful folks such as yourselves on the job.
Posted by Anal_yst , Oct 22, 2008 12:13PM
wtf is spode?
Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 12:14PM
This comment is self fulfilling, because the very ignorance on the existence of enourmous differences between emerging markets will cause everything to drop in tandem.
Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 12:17PM
@5 you are a freakin poet...You so eloquently put into words what has been crossing my mind for weeks now...
Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 12:19PM
Speaking of thoughtful and insightful folks, from the front page of Yahoo Finance:
10 Steps to Retire a Millionaire
For many, having a million-dollar portfolio in retirement isn't just a dream -- it's a necessity. Follow these 10 steps to hit that six-figure mark.
Six figures? No wonder this country is in so much trouble.
Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 12:22PM
FYI for you #5, I had the MOAB -Mother of All Burritos- for lunch today. You can stop by my office in about 20 minutes I need to finish up a couple things first.
SPODE
Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 12:22PM
@Headless Horseman- instead of bitching about it, why don't you create 5-10 log-ins and generate meaningful dialogues among yourself?
Posted by Anal_yst , Oct 22, 2008 12:33PM
@ 9
Bingo
Posted by Headless Horseman , Oct 22, 2008 12:35PM
@11 In an attempt to parrot the same approach you presumably take with sexy time? While I can assure you that as a old-school republican I appreciate the many virtues of self-reliance, on occasion I find that I prefer external stimuli.
You seem agitated. Perhaps if swith it up a bit by giving it a whirl with your left hand you'll be more sucessful in convincing yourself that someone else is in the bathroom stall with you? Best of luck with that.
Posted by Headless Horseman , Oct 22, 2008 12:39PM
*if you switched it up*
Didn't want you to get even more frustrated by the typo in my suggestion.
Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 12:39PM
@ headless- not agitated at all. just find your comment to be a pointless waste of time unless it includes suggestions for a solution to what you believe to be a problem.
Posted by Headless Horseman , Oct 22, 2008 12:57PM
As to the original post, I concur with DH's appraisal of the situation. I'd be open to hearing what others had to say on the matter as a means of gaining a more informed, more well-rounded perspective on the matter.
My solution for the problem that prompted my post would be for commentators one through four to go run up and down the stairwell or yell out an open window if they're in need of attention/validation/etc. as opposed to posting inane things on message boards. Alternatively, the aforementioned posters could run down a stairwell and fling themselves from an open window. While they're of course free to do as they please, I simply feel the novelty of "first" comments and at-length discussions of SPODE's gastrointestinal failures have worn thin.
Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 1:03PM
Check out Headless Horseman talking about sexy time and stimuli. Rock on dude!
"...giving it a whirl with your left hand you'll be more sucessful..."
Fist of all you spelled successful wrong but who cares. Secondly your logic is flawed if you think the left hand will be convincing. What if he is already left handed? Even if he isn't left handed he would still receive sensory feelings from his hand telling him it's not someone else's hand. It may be awkward, but it wont be foreign.
Here is what you do bitches to get that stranger feeling and its not fiction. By the way, Bess hates it when I do this. Possessive and jealous that's why I love her.
Cut off the circulation to your preferred hand, if at work you can sit on it and tell people you are cold, and then beat your meat like a silly little freak. If you want to get really creative then bring your other hand into the picture and it's like a goddamn three-some until you start to get feeling back in your foreign hand and then you feel like you have been with a transsexual. So beat it quick.
SPODE
Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 1:05PM
@16
Suck my balls?
SPODE
Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 1:09PM
Harrison, you suck.
Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 1:14PM
Seriously, a full page of your half-baked opinion on where Argentina's stock market is headed? Is this what people come to DB for? Or is it what they don't go to your blog for?
Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 1:19PM
Don't cry for me Argentina...
Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 1:20PM
"...SPODE's gastrointestinal failures..."
I would like to go on the record and state that this is a categorical lie designed to discredit and defame my good name. Headless Horseman is jealous of my... of my... yea. So there!
Trust me bitches I do not have sfincter phailure.
Lady's pleaz send me all you're sexy time pictures so I May pic these weaks lucky winner.
Dealbreaker.com
c/o SPODE
262 Mott Street
Suite 102A
New York, NY 10012
Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 2:20PM
The Kirchners have more or less blown the commodity windfall of the last half decade, it appears. I actually don't think that a second Argentine default would be that big of a shock to other emerging markets because the country has been pretty much abandoned by institutional investors and hasn't really re-integrated itself with world capital markets after the default.
Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 2:23PM
DH= fired analyst, 'research-oriented' investment bank (e.g., Rutberg)... or perhaps 'gold long wave consultant'
EP= 'sharp associate' at PE/growth equity shop, maybe summitt... could get into HBS based upon, y'know. post your pic, for heaven's sake!
Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 3:02PM
possible pic of EP?
http://profile.ak.facebook.com/profile5/773/58/s623757985_7465.jpg
Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 3:15PM
Jackass, EM are down twice as much as developed. How's that fit your "plant waterer" analogy?
Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 3:15PM
Jackass, EM are down twice as much as developed. How's that fit your "plant waterer" analogy?
Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 3:16PM
Jackass, EM are down twice as much as developed. How's that fit your "plant waterer" analogy?
Posted by guest , Oct 22, 2008 6:25PM
No way out - it's Hell through 2011!
Check the reset chart:
http://tinyurl.com/558bbd
DOW 5000 or worse?
Posted by guest , Oct 23, 2008 1:25PM
Daniel - what exactly do you know about Argentina's GDP? Or India, China and Indonesia's for that matter? How much of it is reliant on consumer demand in the US and Europe?
Even for China, with its behemoth export sector, only 6-7 per cent of China's GDP depends on exports to the US. Do you know what has been the fastest growing shipping route of the last 5 years? The intra-Asia trade route.
The problem is that if you try to evaluate an economy like China sitting in New York, you'd only see to the extent of American involvement. And China is far, far beyond merely exporting to the US.
Your Merrill plant waterer analogy is distasteful and condescending. Zip it.
Posted by guest , Oct 23, 2008 1:27PM
Daniel - what exactly do you know about Argentina's GDP? Or India, China and Indonesia's for that matter? How much of it is reliant on consumer demand in the US and Europe?
Even for China, with its behemoth export sector, only 6-7 per cent of China's GDP depends on exports to the US. Do you know what has been the fastest growing shipping route of the last 5 years? The intra-Asia trade route.
The problem is that if you try to evaluate an economy like China sitting in New York, you'd only see to the extent of American involvement. And China is far, far beyond merely exporting to the US.
Your Merrill plant waterer analogy is distasteful and condescending. Zip it.