It looks like $5 billion of Lehman bonds priced at around $0.0975 in the fire sale auction today. That is somewhat dire for anyone who wrote credit default swaps for Lehman and now has to cover the difference, or $0.9025 on the dollar. The Street Sweety had it essentially right earlier (I know, hard to believe).
The price isn’t official until 2pm, but it is hard to imagine it will change all that much between now and then.
Bloomberg is quoting someone who thinks this means about $270 billion in payouts from CDS writers is now due. Obviously, that’s going to require some asset dumping to raise cash. Possibly, that will sink a few firms in the weeks to come.
Ouch.
Initial Results of the Lehman Brothers Auction, Friday 10th October 2008 [MarkIt]
Lehman Initial Swap Auction Indicates Larger Payout [Bloomberg]
About Those Lehman Brothers Credit Default Swaps [Dealbreaker]
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EP, are you drunk?
Since when do 0.0975 and 0.9125 add up to one?
http://brokershandsontheirfacesblog.tumblr.com/
http://brokershandsontheirfacesblog.tumblr.com/
qw094710ertetysdfanns verw39aSIDJFO OAWIURSERBVSE3890
karma is a boomerang. and joe terranova called this whole thing.
Please also fix:
“$0.9025 on the dollar”
Bloomberg’s $270b figure was based on a bond price of 20cents. So our friend Mr. Extrapolation says that figure should be revised to $305b, on $340b in Lehman CDS.
There was a commenter yesterday who estimated $400b in Lehman though.
Seriously. Where’s Mordechai Chang?
this is the nail is MS’s coffin
“Posted by guest, Oct 10, 2008 1:25PM
Since when do 0.0975 and 0.9125 add up to one?”
Yep, typo. Thanks! Fixed.
So what you are saying is that CNBC is preemptively over exuberant? That the market is going down way more and that some firms will go under?
@10
They’re done. Finished.
MS doesn’t have exposure to this.
I’m going to turn to the mindless entertainment of sports while I wait for the financial system to crash a burn.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/081010
Honest opinion here from someone who hates gov in the marketplace, the best use of that 700B is to cover the LEH CDS, if banks cant cover the 270B then a few more will fail and thier CDS will have to be covered and so on. This could just be the begining of the end if that happens.
are equities mkts going to be closed on Mon or what?
Honest opinion here from someone who hates gov in the marketplace, the best use of that 700B is to cover the LEH CDS, if banks cant cover the 270B then a few more will fail and thier CDS will have to be covered and so on. This could just be the begining of the end if that happens.
are equities mkts going to be closed on Mon or what?
Is that the domino effect several people have mentioned on their web sites? #16
CDS is a zero sum game. each contract has a buyer and a seller – so if $400 BN of LEH CDS is outstanding and recovery is 10% the people who wrote CDS will lose $360 BN and the people who purchased CDS will make $360 BN. the net loss will be on the amount of debt LEH actually had outstanding (including counterparties who were owed $$ from LEH on other derivatives). so if LEH had $150 BN of senior bonds and counterparty exposure outstanding the net loss from LEH filing BK would be $135 BN. of course this ignores the effect of LEH liquidating hedgie prime broker balances and resulting collateral effects.
@#16/18…
Wrong dude. Uncle Sam is NOT going to give gamblers who paid 27 cents per $Hundred for $400B of CDS on $100B of debt a big f’n payout. Dream on.
In the end, you will see that CDS gambling/insurance is just a bad f’n cartoon that just stops.
CDS is a fucking joke. I can’t believe that anybody is taking this whole f’n auction seriously. Unbelievable buffoonery.
The Guy from Delaware
p.s. My suggestion to banks on the hook… fuck the CDS assholes. Pay nothing. If all banks do that, they all can then just look out for themselves only, and let the CDS clowns wipe their own asses with all that CDS paper.
#21 – CDS is a zero sum game assuming the losing party has the $270 bln to pony up.
but those who sold protection… aren´t they hedged somehow? they sold protection “naked”?
any comment will be appreciated
thx
@#21…
You’re another idiot in denial. You still think that this is business as usual and that Wall St is still in charge.
Do you really believe that someone(s) is just going to be allowed to “make a $360 BN” profit and collapse the entire system just because they have a piece of f’n CDS paper? WTF is the matter with you?
The Entire CDS species as we know it will become totally Extinct vey shortly. Stay F’n Tuned.
The Guy from Delaware
@23,
that would be like assuming the Iraqis would welcome us as liberators.
@#25…
you have obviously lost a considerable amount of money and are acting irrationally. i understand your plight and don’t begrudge your crude language or personal attack on my rational (and completely accurate) representation of the CDS product and settlement procedure. i do have a question: if CDS counterparties decline to meet their obligation because its a piece of paper – what obligation would anyone bound by a contract have to honor their obligation? do you propose we all stop paying our credit card bills? do you propose the gov’t fail to pay its bond obligations because they need the money? the only way to keep the system from collapsing is to treat all situations as business as usual – otherwise we should all load up on firearms and canned goods. but be quick – if others share your opinion you won’t be able to pay in dollars for much longer.
@25 you are a moron.
@10 and 13 – if you shorted MS because you believed they had huge exposure to this, you are toast