Opening Bell: 10.06.08

Editor's Note: My name is Daniel Harrison, and I'm the new Opening Bell writer here at Dealbreaker. Those of you who are readers of the TheStreet.com may remember my daily Asia markets column over there; others may have stopped by my personal blog, which is on the blogroll here. Either way, if you have anything you want to rant/ask/talk/tip about, you can e-mail me now on daniel (AT) dealbreaker (DOT) com.

Global Stocks, U.S. Index Futures Fall as Credit Crisis Widens (Bloomberg)
It looks like it's going to be an ugly morning. S&P futures are off 34 points, at 1073.90, while the Dow and the Nasdaq are both off around 1.5% in futures trading. Mainly it's that payroll report that came out Friday, which pointed to 159,000 jobs vanishing in September. Overseas investors also took a beating in Europe and Asia (see next article). If you're feeling bad about what's going on here however, take heart: European countries from Germany to Greece couldn't even agree on a mutual bailout package and are now going solo with plans to prop up their individual economies (which sort of defeats the point of a European Union, but anyway). That's put the euro at a 13-month low vs. the greenback. ... and you can expect that record to be broken again soon.

Asian stocks plumb depths on a wave of selling (Marketwatch)
Japan's Nikkei had its lowest close since February 2004, while in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng lost 5% and slumped to a 2-year low. In Shanghai, the composite index fell 5.2%. Chinese officials are turning yet more tricks to try and stimulate mainland markets, which are in somewhat of a death spiral, by allowing local companies to issue notes allowing them to buy back their own much-reduced shares. As always in Asia, the scenario is much more severe than it is stateside, but not without its quirks. While Hong Kong-listed shares of Chinese insurance giant Ping An dropped 8%, in Shanghai the shares rose 1%. Oh, and China's regulators seemed to think today made an opportune moment to announce that they will soon allow short-selling.


Bank of America to alter mortgages in $8.4 bln plan (Marketwatch)

From Tel Aviv, Marketwatch reports that BoA has reached an $8.4 billion agreement with an undisclosed number of U.S. states which will allow 400,000 former Countrywide clients to keep their homes. BoA's settlement covers anyone who took out a Countrywide mortgage before December 31, 2007, which seems fair enough. Today's stock futures aside, does this mean we've reached a bottom in the housing crisis? That's going to be the story peddled today, and actually for once, it's not such a bad story to write. BoA's actions will force others to reach the same kind of agreements, which in turn, should raise everyone's spirits over last week's bailout.

data-1.jpegFuld May Blame Confidence Crisis for Lehman's Demise (Bloomberg)
In all the market mayhem, we nearly forgot that it's time for Lehman's top man Dick Fuld's testimony to the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform today. Bloomberg reports that Fuld is likely to blame a "confidence crisis" in financial shares for Lehman's demise. True or not, that type of testimony is a bit late, and doesn't really help matters. Really, Fuld ought to say that, like everyone, he mistimed the market and that as a consequence, his firm went under. Still, his comments will be notable if it's a volatile day on Wall Street.

Oil falls below $90 as financial turmoil spreads (AP)
Black gold has hit an 8-month low, at around $90 a barrel. So much for the supposedly fireproof predictions of the genius analysts at Goldman Sachs, who said earlier this year that oil would hit $150 a barrel, despite weakening economic conditions. Any explanations?

Cramer: Preventing Great Depression II (TheStreet.com)
Over at TheStreet.com, Jim Cramer is predicting that the Dow may fall as low as 5,000 points, while the U.S. economy falls into a Great Depression. He has some advice for policy officials, which you can find out by reading the article. This "worst crisis since the Great Depression" talk is odd: it's as if everyone has skipped over the late 1970's-early 1980's in their economic history books. Double digit inflation? Rising interest rates? 11% unemployment? That was the worst crisis since the 1930's ... and we're still a long way away.

Has Steve Jobs built a secret MacBook factory? (CNN Money)
On Friday, you may remember, Apple lost more than 5% after an alleged "citizen journalist" posted a rumor on CNN's iReport stating that Steve Jobs had had a heart attack. You would have thought that with with an SEC investigation on its heels for peddling false market information, and after much embarrassment, CNN doesn't want any more to do with Apple rumors for a long time. Well ... apparently not! Here's a report on CNN Money about how Steve Jobs may have built a secret MacBook factory -- without the knowledge of Apple's many millions of shareholders -- in order to produce a new line of MacBook Pro's to be released later this month.

Google Deal With Yahoo Draws More Opposition (New York Times)
Not that this is most people's priority news this morning, but it's all too easy to overlook the small nuggets of news amidst a market crisis. Advertisers are apparently worried about price hikes in the event of a Google/Yahoo synergy. I've been hearing increasing talk among web owners about the failure of Google's adwords and other programs to provide valuable earnings. You can't help but see this latest Yahoo tie-up as more of a defensive one on Google's part than anything else.

Wachovia may be split between Citigroup, Wells Fargo (Press Trust of India)
Given that there is pretty much only one place you can find this story, it may be worth taking it with a pinch of salt. Either way, PTI reports that execs are hashing out a deal to sell the northwestern branches of Wachovia to the snubbed Citigroup, with the brokerage and asset management arm going to Wells Fargo, as previously reported.

Comments

1

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 7:36AM

First?

And Welcome...

2

Posted by CrazyCougar, Oct 06, 2008 7:39AM

Thank you, and a warm welcome to you from a DB reader! I was going to say "Welcome aboard!", but considering ongoing events, that didn't seem like a greeting bearing good karma ...

3

Posted by michange, Oct 06, 2008 7:48AM

Totally Unfounded Explanation for recent Dark Gold volatility :

According to Brad Stetser, daBernanke & al. Have a shadow cash reserve amounting approximatively the official one.

What whould you do if you would like to bail the world's economy out in the biggest financial blackmail ever :

1°/ Have the dollar down against ither currencies.

2°/ Hedge your gigantic cash amount in petroleum.

3°/ Unwind petroleum positions at the time you need cash to take Wall Street over, sending the dollar up again.

4°/ National-socialisation of all the world's money completed.

Read it here first :

[La Crise pour les Nuls : American Reichstag on fire!]
http://lacrisepourlesnuls.blogspot.com/2008/09/lincendie-du-reichstag-amricain.html

[La Crise pour les Nuls : Oil prices : supply crisis or speculation?]
http://comprendrelacrise.blogspot.com/2008/06/prix-du-ptrole-crise-dapprovisionement.html

4

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 7:57AM

no commentary on how fuxored Darien is?


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/05/nyregion/05towns.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=Darien&st=cse&oref=slogin

5

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 8:33AM

If the bailout plan turns out not to have worked, can we have the money back?

Regards,

Taxpayer in Flyover Country....

6

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 8:37AM

Good first effort, but needs more typos.

7

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 8:42AM

@5

No, it goes straight to Obama's friends at ACORN and La Raza (oh, and to G. Soros too).

Sorry, they need it more than you do. It's for the poor and the opressed minorities.

So, why don't you just do us all a favor and practice keeping your mouth shut. Stupid redneck.

8

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 8:45AM

Terrible. He must go.


9

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 8:46AM

Eighth!

10

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 8:47AM

I miss Joe.

Please don't link to Cramer or TheStreet.com when you used to work there. It's in poor form.


-- The Great Santini

11

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 8:47AM

Dan, I assure I havent read your garbage on the street.com, and I wont be reading it here. Saying you used to work for a Jim Cramer compnay is like saying you were a mbs trader at LEH or BSC, probably not a good idea.

I don't make money, I print it.

12

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 8:48AM

Dan, can you please tell us about the interview process with Bess.

13

Posted by ab, Oct 06, 2008 8:51AM

We reach a bottom once Cramer goes off the air?

14

Posted by diablo, Oct 06, 2008 8:52AM

This is a great new Opening Bell. It even included some comedy (re: Cramer). I really appreciate it.

15

Posted by I am a Dude, Oct 06, 2008 8:53AM

wow, thestreet.com, however did you land that gig? you must be unbelievably talented. MBA in Olso? nice.

16

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 8:55AM

Did we really need to get someone hocking thestreet.com - the worst site in the history of finance.

And furthermore...There's like a max of 10 posts a day on this site, why is there 3+ editors? Someone is writing posts for 1 hour a day, talking to sources another hour, and playing beer pong for 6 more hours.

17

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 8:56AM

Hi my names Dan. Before joining DB, I worked for the biggest hack on Wall St. Prior to that, I interned for Charlie Gasparino at CNBC. I was his main Gabagole guy.

18

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 9:01AM

Jeez will you faggots shut up. He wasn't pumping the Street, he was just mentioning the fact that he used to work there.

I'm sure all of you whiny bitches popped out of your mother's womb straight onto the trading desk at GS. We've all had jobs that weren't necessarily the most glamorous from time to time.

19

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 9:01AM

Explanation for oil? Hedgies. They need cash bad and are selling everything in sight. Look at how everything that has been meteoric long in recent history (Oil, Four Horseflies, Brazil, commodities, POT) has been crushed brutally.

Tremendous liquidation for redemptions and survival (due to the nonexistent credit markets) is going to continue and drive prices well below fundamentals because the hedgies simply do not have a choice.

I wouldn't buy now unless you like buying into the world's biggest falling knife margin call. Once it's a smoking atomic crater, yeah, back up the truck.

20

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 9:02AM


Hi I'm Dan. I used to open Jim Cramer's mail at TheStreet.com. My blog picture highlights my flaxen hair and pouty lips. I never actually worked in finance. But I know people who did!

21

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 9:04AM

you guys are total douche bags. he wasn't bragging about working at the street dot com he was giving you his fucking bio. oh, and joe never worked in finance either (nor did carney).

22

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 9:06AM

You DB readers crack me up. Keep on hurling the abuse on poor Dan. It'll be a much-needed inauguration for him.

23

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 9:09AM

@19 the word for today is "deleveraging". Can everybody say that along with me? "Deleveraging".

The former investment banks (LEH, GS, MS) were the biggest players in prime brokerage, allowing hedge funds to borrow well below reg-T. Now all these guys are going commercial, gotta play by new rules now. Gonna really squeeze the hedge funds.


24

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 9:09AM

Whats the word on teh CDS closing?

25

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 9:15AM

Too long, didn't read.

26

Posted by Henry Ryecroft, Oct 06, 2008 9:18AM

Welcome, Dan, and good luck. Don't mind all the fuckwits in comments. Unemployment, or the looming prospect of it, can make people crabbit.

27

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 9:20AM

Hey @ 26 you are a fuckwit. Why don't you save your comments for your blowup doll.

28

Posted by Anal_yst, Oct 06, 2008 9:21AM

Dan, 5:45am????? Damn son! You in London and just taking your sweet time, or do you simply not sleep?

29

Posted by Seaman Bodine, Oct 06, 2008 9:21AM

art cashin and the dow 1000 hat -> funniest all time

30

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 9:26AM


I think I have a Dow 10,000 hat in my closet somewhere. Gonna be my Halloween costume. I'm going as an employed trader.

31

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 9:33AM

Welcome Dan.

32

Posted by Henry Ryecroft, Oct 06, 2008 9:35AM

QED

33

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 9:36AM

welcome. At lot of us were happy to find this site as they didn't reference people like Jim Cramer who furthers his own agenda and the agenda of his friends. We were looking for a site that was "real" as opposed to "manipulated". You were smart to "fess up" right away. It would have been worse if they found it on their own. good luck.

34

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 9:37AM

welcome. At lot of us were happy to find this site as they didn't reference people like Jim Cramer who furthers his own agenda and the agenda of his friends. We were looking for a site that was "real" as opposed to "manipulated". You were smart to "fess up" right away. It would have been worse if they found it on their own. good luck.

35

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 9:41AM

Fuckwit! I love fuckwits!!!

36

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 9:44AM

Hi, names Dan. Prior to joining DB, I was the editor in chief of Cracked, you may have heard of it. I was the head writer of the Nassau CC newsletter, as well as head adman at the Stamford Advocate.

Good luck toolbox. By the way, Im sure Bess is a total pig, enough of the questions about how she looks

37

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 9:52AM


Dan, since it's your first day we'll order Chinese food for lunch. After we've finished, we mash all the leftovers into one tray along the packets of hot sauce, duck sauce, soy sauce. We start putting 50's and hundreds in a pile next to it if you eat the whole thing without drinking any water you get the money.

Welcome to the desk.

38

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 9:58AM

@36...die.

39

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 10:06AM

enough with the questions about why 36 is a douchebag, im sure he was born a total troll and life has only gotten worse from there.

40

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 10:15AM

@39, you sound like an ex Lehman staffer. Tell ya what, if you are looking to scrape together the rent money, meet me on the corner of 79 and Park, ill let you wash the Maserati and daddy will throw you some coin

Either that or you are some back office knob, but Im going with my first guess.

41

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 10:15AM

Two things:

1) I took out a CW mortgage before 2007, but I'm not behind on my payments. Can I get a few grand knocked off my mortgage anyway, just for being a good customer? Send the bill to Hammerin' Hank. Tell him I said it was okay.

2) Her Marianess put up a chart last night of various central bank rates. I noted with some glee that the BoE is paying like 2% more than the Fed. That's no Japanese Delight, but with an interest rate cut looming large in our future, is there any re-stirring of the dollar carry trade shenanigans only on the other side of the pond? Just curious.

42

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 10:37AM

Speaking of Brazil, told you it was going to get hammered. Bovespa is limit-stopped and ADR's are heading towards crash lows from two years ago.

Someone want to stroke about the proprietary trading models of hedge funds again?

- 19

43

Posted by girl, Oct 06, 2008 11:07AM

Don't mind the others, they are just adjusting to the new "help" around here..like any children to whom no one pays attention.

welcome to db!

44

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 1:59PM

@7 you should be more grateful to those of us who bailed out your metrosexual asses.

Uppity Wall Street clowns.

45

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 2:05PM

@7 you should be more grateful to those of us who bailed out your metrosexual asses.

Uppity Wall Street clowns.

46

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 3:19PM

you guys all sound like faggots none of you are smart

47

Posted by guest, Oct 06, 2008 6:18PM

tldr.

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