U.S. stock futures blasted after Asia plunge (Marketwatch)
U.S. futures are getting smashed up this morning after a nightmare trading session in the Asian markets (see next article). Dow futures are off 546 points, while Nasdaq futures are falling 82.5 points; S&P futures are down 60 points, at 855.20. There's a lot of technical analysis that says the S&P has to hit 800 before we see a decent rebound; more and more, that's looking the right analysis. That said, with the extent of this selloff, and the huge volatility, the potential for short squeezing has never looked so ominous or looming. Opec cut production by a whopping 1.5million barrels a day, not that that's likely to have a huge effect: once a commodity market enters freefall, there's little stopping it.
Tokyo, Seoul Head Asian Market Train Wreck (CNBC.com)
The overnight dealer notes from Hong Kong were all broadly disbelieving of the last-minute rally in the Dow yesterday ... and those sentiments couldn't have been proved more right. The Nikkei plummeted 9.6%, to 7649.08, more than a five-year low. The yen hit a 13-year high vs. the dollar, at around 91 yen. South Korea's Kospi was off more than 10%, while everything else in Asia pretty much went belly-up too. Although it looks like a U.S.-led thing, much of the Asian mauling is really more to do with the yen than anything else.
Greenspan Concedes Error on Regulation (NYT)
In a dramatic and humbling mea culpa yesterday, the former fed chairman admitted he was "shocked" by the mess we now find ourselves in, and that he may have got it wrong a little bit with regard to regulation. It's refreshing to see someone being honest right now, rather than blaming the market, the short speculators, the regulators, the homeowners, or whoever else is possibly in the firing line. It makes you think, actually, that he's the only guy round who stands a chance of fixing the problem ... given that half of it seems to have been in saying "we have a problem" in the first place.
German banks overexposed in Iceland (Daily Telegraph)
It turns out that the counter-parties hardest hit by Iceland's recent banking turmoil are German banks, which are owed $21 billion. That's around a third of Iceland's $75 billion debt. German banks are having a hard time; it was also a major lender to both Spain and Ireland, which have been pretty badly beaten up in the credit crunch. These announcements could not have come on a worse day, either.
Sony Blames Profit Warning on Yen, Weak Demand (Business Week)
A lot of the Asian market selloff was down to a surprise announcement by Sony that its earnings would fall 58% on the year, to $2.04 billion, by March 2009. The article explains that Sony sees the higher yen harming sales. It's not really the harm in sales that's the issue here however, but more the margin on exports, which is just wiped away when the yen's sitting up in the 90's.
Microsoft earnings beat the Street (NYT)
Microsoft is turning out to be a bit of a contrary indicator. When times are rolling, the software giant is lagging ... but now that things are in somewhat of a death spiral, earnings are up. Still, only just, a 48 cents a share vs. 47 cents a share. That's the advantage of a monopoly: it's almost recession-proof by default. After all, everyone still needs MS Word, if only to polish their resumes while they look for a new employer.
Posted by guest , Oct 24, 2008 8:03AM
gonna repost the rumor about -40% ytd now?
Posted by guest , Oct 24, 2008 8:03AM
gonna repost the rumor about -40% ytd now?
Posted by guest , Oct 24, 2008 8:04AM
gonna repost the rumor about -40% ytd now?
Posted by guest , Oct 24, 2008 8:04AM
Ladies and gentleman we HAVE a crash.
Posted by guest , Oct 24, 2008 8:11AM
Short squeeze? Those are a thing of the past. No one has ever been prosecuted for naked shorting...
Posted by guest , Oct 24, 2008 8:17AM
short squeeze, eh? Danny, you show a complete lack of understanding of the deleveraging and forced selling that is taking place. It will stop when it stops (hopefully soon), but in the meantime, there is no bottom to the market.
Posted by guest , Oct 24, 2008 8:18AM
Daniel, where is that bottom again? Are we there yet?
Posted by guest , Oct 24, 2008 8:26AM
We are going to drop 10% today, and we will have market and bank holidays next week all over the world. Global markets won't open til Wednesday next week.
I want my mommy...
Posted by guest , Oct 24, 2008 8:28AM
If your Mommy has a nice sets of jugs, I want her too.
Posted by guest , Oct 24, 2008 8:34AM
@9, way things are going and if you have money to pay, make your bid...
Posted by guest , Oct 24, 2008 8:38AM
Ground control to Major Kong:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcW_Ygs6hm0
Posted by guest , Oct 24, 2008 8:40AM
The market won't hit bottom until Maria Slutaroma simultaneously pukes and wets herself lavishly on live TV.
At that point, all "Financial TV" will become obsolete, and we can all go back to watching silly game shows
Posted by guest , Oct 24, 2008 8:44AM
@11 Spot on, except the mushroom cloud will be a lot bigger.
Can't wait till all of those Hedgies finish blowing up so I can pick me some good bargains here in NYC and the Hamptons. I bet that by March we will see the supply of Park Ave apartmens go up considerably.
Posted by guest , Oct 24, 2008 8:49AM
Louis Bacon will be selling that fucking island in Peconic Bay, given all the Nat Gas and Lehman he went long on... totes psyched!!
Posted by guest , Oct 24, 2008 8:50AM
Trade of the Year: long cole hamels, short james shields
-R. Balboa
Its Always Sunny Partners LLC
Posted by guest , Oct 24, 2008 8:56AM
15, Big game James straightened the fillies out. Rays in 6
Posted by guest , Oct 24, 2008 9:13AM
We'll be up by the end of the day.
Get this crap cleared out by noon and then up from there.
Posted by guest , Oct 24, 2008 9:26AM
Daniel, can you stop analyzing the news, and just write a summary. i didnt realize you were getting paid based on your stellar insight.
Posted by guest , Oct 24, 2008 9:29AM
"24.10.08"?
What sort of bizarro world am i living in?
Posted by Daniel Harrison , Oct 24, 2008 9:46AM
@18 nope - i'll continue to offer all the views on the broker notes rather than just re-write bloomie
@19 well spotted! sorry my english dating system getting the better of me this am!
Posted by guest , Oct 24, 2008 10:02AM
Oh daniel daniel. Where are thou your magnificent market bottom call at 8500?
Posted by guest , Oct 24, 2008 10:09AM
@17....You are the winner! The coolaid is strong
Posted by guest , Oct 24, 2008 10:20AM
Let's get real here - there is no bottom to this until all of the losses are booked.
Mark to market will kill everyone, Mark to maturity will put us in a Japan-style decades-long recession.
Until this crap is dealtyh with:
http://tinyurl.com/558bbd
there is no bottom in site.
My advice - stay out of the market until 2011, unless you are making trades off the volatility and wild swings.