$$$ Morgan Stanley Hints At Future Common Offering [Barron's via Clusterstock]
$$$ “On The Floor” With Nicole Petallides [WSF]
$$$ John McCain is sending pre-paid FedEx envelopes to Goldman Sachs’ employees — the few who are left, anyway — requesting $5,000 checks. [Wonkette]
$$$ Wachovia lends GOP $8 billion [FS]
$$$ This is an imperfect visual. Wall Street’s balls are not blue, they are stuck in a deep fryer. [Gothamist, it's completely SFW]
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$8 Billion? I think $8 million is more like it but we get the picture.
I jerked off in my FedEx envelope.
Ever since I was a lad I would watch the evening news, but tonight I can’t. I just can’t take this business anymore. I just spent the last 30 minutes in the tub taking a BATH and drinking a 24 oz. Miller Lite. Afterwards I smeared some Preparation H on my ass because I have a stress-related hemorrhoid problem. Beats acne because I still look great at work, but it hurts when I poop and that’s a scary negative. Financial services was the worst choice I ever made, and I intend to correct it, as long as it takes.
Bad Choices: The Street
Good choices: Miller Lite and Preparation H
Here’s to positive PnL to you all :)
Barrons Via Clusterstock? Bess you crawling back to Carney like a cripple to her overturned wheelchair
Jesus @3. I have to kill myself now. You could have just summed it up with JO&C.
@5 What is JO&C
Re #5 HAAA!!!!!!!
@4- carney has linked to db in actual posts (and not write offs one offs) this week:
http://www.clusterstock.com/2008/10/is-bank-of-america-s-equity-offering-in-trouble-
http://www.clusterstock.com/2008/10/live-the-wachovia-wells-fargo-merger-call
http://www.clusterstock.com/2008/10/drink-to-forget-the-dow-
perhaps she’s just being kind.
Bess won’t quit until she brings MS down.
@7 we know you are #5, poor form
Good chance the Wachovia/NRCC story is bogus, it’s not circulating in the financial media.
However, in 2006, Wachovia did loan $8 million (not billion) to the NRCC, and there was some scandal surrounding how that money was obtained. There’s a Washington Post report here:
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitol-briefing/2008/03/nrcc_suspects_several_hundred.html
“The NRCC borrowed $8 million in 2006 from Wachovia Bank in order to fund that year’s Congressional races, and the committee was required to give the bank detailed financial information in order to secure the loan.”
@3
You should have the doctor cut it off and then you could sell it on ebay.
Make a buck or two. But don’t overcharge for shipping that pisses people off and they might try to fuck you in the ass.
SPODE
Re 10. No, I’m not number #5. I don’t even know who #7 is.
http://www.upzero.com
Incredible market commentary — hysterical.
And Barack Obama is sending out several emails a day with as many as four pre filled out links for contributions of a hundred bucks or more.
WS seems to have problems differentiating between million and billion?
McCain isn’t sending those JUST to Goldman Sachs employees…
“Goldman Sachs’ employees — the few who are left, anyway”
Instead of going to the buyside, they’re going to the Treasury now.
Kinda the same thing these days it seems like
ComfortablySmug
O’Reilly showing Cramer on NBC Today.
on his “reality check segment”. O’Reilly said “too late sir”.
O’Reilly says: “Realize that the media financial advice you hear is mostly wrong and so are those stupid newsletter”
Don’t forget to un-mute CNBC tomorrow at 10:25 AM for a speech by the Generalísimo about why the stock market is having a break, or something like that. It will make you feel warm and fuzzy and forget that by the end of the day you or your buddy next to you may not have a job. He thought about giving his little speech in prime time but didn’t want to miss SpongeBob.
who even reads barrons anymore
Will MS survive the weekend? Anyone have ideas? Are PB clients pulling their assets? How big is their exposure to Lehman CDS’s?
Given the ~10% selloff in Tokyo, I think the SPX could see 800 tomorrow and MS could be in the single digits. Can Mitsubishi really go through with the deal at that point?
What a disaster. I’m a life-long Republican but after witnessing the pathetic response of this Treasury Department I can’t possibly vote for McCain…or any Republican Congressional candidates for that matter.
SNL political program on this evening.
I really don’t understand what Bush plans to say tomorrow – at 10:25 – that will make a bit of a difference. If he thinks he’s going to use moral suasion to stem the bleeding he is nuts. I can tell you exactly what’s going to happen: the market is going to sell off 4% between 9:30 and 10:25. Then it’s going to pause for a few seconds while he tells us that “his administration” is doing all of the right things, that “this economy is sound” and that Americans “just need to be patient” and let the policy actions take hold. He’ll also tell us that he has the utmost confidence in Secretary Paulson and Chairman Bernanke and their teams. And then, at 10:27, the market is going to resume the selloff, with a little acceleration as punishment for the distraction. At 2 o’clock, the margin clerks will decide that no one has adequate capital and start a two-hour long unwind that will induce panic selling culminating in $8 billion of market-on-close orders sending the Dow to a close of 7600 for the bloodiest day in US financial history and securing Bush’s claim to Worst. President. Ever.
After what happened after Lehman went under, it will be foolish to let MS go the same way. I said foolish? Oh no!
I abhor amy poller. No talent.
Mitsubishi will be inclined to bid MS sayonara.
But one interesting element in the equation is CIC (China Investment Corporation). They bought 10% of MS for $5billion earlier. Word is that CIC is “reluctant” to see their $5billion disappear and might be willing to do a joint bid with MUFG for a bigger slice of MS. But much will depend on whether Beijing will allow such a deal after CIC’s dismal investments in MS and Blackstone.
Another nasty unintended consequence of Lehman’s bankruptcy is that it provided a template for other buyers looking to purchase US i-bank assets on the cheap. Potential buyers might be looking to acquire parts or all of MS in post bankruptcy filing Barclays-style.
But I still bet Paulson will come up with the goods and bail out MS. If he lets MS go under, there will be no political rationale (or excuse) to save Goldman. It will indeed be THE END OF AN ERA.
Hey ! I got one of those Fed Ex envelopes asking for 5,000 too.
– Now – I’m a registered Democrat, I don’t work at Goldman, I don’t know how in the world they got my name.
Freaky.
Hey ! I got one of those Fed Ex envelopes asking for 5,000 too.
– Now – I’m a registered Democrat, I don’t work at Goldman, I don’t know how in the world they got my name.
Freaky.
well now, everyone watching is now fully informed about the AIG spa party, and the extra 37+ billion.
Moody’s just put MS and GS on review for possible downgrade. Hate to say it, but it’s likely the end for the two firms. S&P will likely pile on by mid-morning. Their CDS’s will jump tomorrow which will induce CDS writers to sell the stocks for protection and so the deadly spiral continues.
Are any PB clients staying with MS? How ugly is that going to be to unwind? The only way GS sees Monday is if the exchange is closed tomorrow.
Unemployment 8% by February 2009.
What inning are we in again? Who’s pitching?
#32
the scary thing is, many of the jobs lost are white collar jobs and seem permanent.
shouldnt moodys and s&p be shut down
their fault we got here in the first place due to their stupidity and claiming everyone was AAAAAAA
#35 – The ratings agencies blame the investment banks for wining and dining them to give these phoney ratings.
I know it’s a weak argument. It’s like saying if there are no men, there would be no prostitutes.
Yeah, Moody’s and S&P really need to be wiped out. What a clusterfuck they are. Here’s a clue for them: no asset should be rated AAA one week and be in default the next.
The models they use are simply retarded: are they based on anything more than market velocity? Ooh, ooh, ooh, if assets prices are rising, there is no risk – but if asset prices are falling, well, hell, you might lose money.
We need to pay an independent ratings agency for that?
1. @26 Amy P is great so STFU because she is better than you.
2. Watching John McCain speak makes me feel good inside, because it reminds me that at least one American is about to have a worse month than I am.
3. We ghosts of Lehman will return one day to rule the world: Better educated. More muscled up. Tan. And putting Barack Obama over the edge for a second time in 2012.
Suck it, right wing.
@ 31 link?
#26, she has no talent. Tina Fey has way way way more talent. Amy slipped through the cracks when the program wasn’t so popular.
#31, karma bites
A federal judge issued a restraining order against the Secretary of State of Ohio (a democratic operative?) in connection with voter fraud.
Guess they will have to have a do over and just vote on election day.
Question: Does the Nikkei react to the previous day in the US, does the US react to the nikkei, or is it just one scary feedback loop?
Nikkei down 10% right now…
@43 a little of both. It usually depends on news developments that come out post US closing (but really in this market nothing is usual and everything is fear).
@43,44 – it’s a massive devaluation loop. With the Nikkei down 10%, people and funds are going to have to sell assets in Europe and the US, which will lead to further selling in Asia, and so on.
The only thing that will stop this is when someone stands up and says they are a buyer. That may not happen until the total market cap of US stocks hits $700B and Paulson can own everything.
I saw moody’s downgrade MS but NOT GS. Can anyone clarify this.
SEG are you out there?
Any wisdom right now – ANYTHING PLEASE.
@38–Too bad for you Move0n.org doesn’t pay as well as Lehman. Have fun though.
@46 headlines on Bloomberg didn’t have an actual downgrade but both MS and GS on credit watch for possible downgrade.
Still that’ll be enough to blow out the CDS’s and cause a massive selloff.
Lloyd better put a call in to Hank tonight for that capital injection or you might be able to pick up some GS below the IPO price.
It may be time to declare a bank holiday.
@9 GET THE FUCK OUT
@49, that is.
@46 oops…the actual language is that MS is on review for a possible downgrade and GS had its outlook cut to negative.
I guess it’s still not politic to cut Goldman.
So with MS and GS practically toast, are there going to be any American firms left, or is “Wall Street” going to be populated by JPM and a bunch of foreign banks?
Nice job, Hanky, managed to outsource Wall St in just two short years.
Why do you pick on Bess and the other writers. They have been getting no sleep to bring the drama of the financial crisis right to you on your computer, most times before anyone in the MSM even has a clue. So thanks dealbreaker you are doing a great job.
Something needs to prop MS up. Where are these rumors coming from. What will they say about GS? Buffett wont go down without a fight.
They just announced the MS and GS downgrades on Bloomberg as breaking news. (from Moody’s)
Warren would merge Goldman into Berkshire before it went bust.
that’s who holds the power right now
Lets face it if MS and GS go down – doesn’t really matter at that point – game, set, match boys and girls.
IMHO both will be nationalized into one entity this weekend.
@49 How’s Monday work for you? Thanks Columbus!
http://www.buyusa.gov/uk/en/us_bank_holidays.html
Lets face it if MS and GS go down we are all dunzo, depression, money in the mattresses time.
ok logging back in, (cue up Rolling Stones… You cant always get what you want)…I didn’t want to get involved in the shit storm that is raging through the markets and our own corner here.
So where the fuck are we?
I have been selling my puts down over the last few days. We may be near the water fall, and I might just go over it with out the horde of puts I started this stupid adventure with, but so be it. Me and Mine are green MTD & YTD. Cash is King… Embrace it how ever you can safely define it.
This has reached stupidity squared. This is a market suffering a massive deleveraging due to
1)The insurance boys having to dump their holdings to raise capital for the LEH CDS debacle dance…
2)Hedgys are washing out in mass, the smart and the semi stupid washing out in the big test…
3)Mutual funds are at max withdrawals, caused by 401k to cash or stable funds moves… Baby Boomers are rocken the phone lines asken for their retirement loot now please.
4)Mr retail dumping his exposure to save what he can for retirement. Is there a common theme here?
However, the scary part is we might have hit critical mass for the once in a Century wash outs in the equity markets. I can only say its on the table now… and that is maybe said once a decade. In this case, we are approaching historic drops which makes the case more real… unfortunately.
So, where are we in the big picture? Somewhere between fucked and head for the hills at the moment. I am advising everyone I know to have 3 months of working cash … in cash… nothing outrageous, but enough to exist if the debt or credit cards don’t work in the morning for some reason.
We have not started to hear about retirement funds blowing up yet… we still have our run on Muni’s as citys go BK… the implications of the situation are such that I expect we might need to call for a time out… a bankers vacation…
I think it should be multi week too… serious here… maybe until we have an election and we pick someone else in charge… cause this group has lost its creditability at this stage.
So, if your a gambler… buy WTFOOTM puts and calls and let the market come to you… cause most likely in the next few weeks to months it will hit both extremes…
We are building up for a real waterfall… and it has not happened yet…
Best to all, and be safe out there… even you Tim… this is not a time for hating each other…
~SEG
SEG@61
What’s your take on the Lehman CDS wind-down super sunday (21st October)?
I personally think that the following Monday (22nd October) is going to be the day of reckoning for all.
OMG
@62 (cue up Pearl Jam “Long Road”)
We also have the WaMUUU CDS Square Dance coming up, and some of this fund raising is driven by the needs to settle that one also… between the cow and the brothers… it appears they have seriously fucked up our economic structure.
I don’t care if we have a massive dead cat bounce, it wont stick. We need the CP markets to unlock and credit to flow between banks, and as long as LIBOR and the TED spread are on Viagra… We are fucked.
~SEG
@62 here
I don’t think there is going to be even a slight deadcat bounce. The rush for liquidity and the prevailing fear are too great.
There is no way for the CP market to unlock. The Treasury and the Fe are in an untenablle situation. They can’t go out to guarantee all CP’s and they don’t have the means to buy up CP’s en masse. I think we just need to let the market run its course.
I am still bewildered no one is paying attention to all the CDS settlements that are on the horizon. The only way we can sidestep this is for Bush and Paulson to declare ISDA, Markit, and Creditex are terrorist organisations and US firms are barred from dealing with them.
This is no
@65, I can not argue with your comments… At this stage, I am trying to see how things can pull out…
I have reached the stage we need to sweep the current players from the scene and get new ones… a resetting of the Chess table if you will… if only cause they won’t be as tainted as the current crop is.
We as a nation have been lead by “Oil & Bankers” for the last few decades… and right now, it appears that the masses are growing bored with the management. Which is us…
The layers of the blow ups is increasing… Iceland CDS settlement auction has been set now… the system is most efficient at taking itself to the grave yard it appears…
~SEG
I called my oldest brother today… he let me know he had lost 6-7 digits this last week. (I am not his adviser, but mom made me call him tonight to talk to him)… it was so weird… He is proud of his stupid ass little brother… but he never gave me the keys to the car… if that makes sense… and now we talk about his pain… when my clients are green…
Wish you were our broker, but we are small potatoes a couple of IRA’s and some stocks on the side. All just sitting there as we are shocked to our shoes and can’t envision getting out now and losing so much.
Family interactions are always so weird. You love each other to death but somehow always keep your privacy, espcially when you are the oldest, the oldest is never supposed to fail, is never allowed to do anything but lead and must always shield the others, it ain’t the best position. the baby has it best.
at any rate, found this very funny:
seriously, it is what everyone was thinking and didn’t say
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/
SEG
@65 here
Thanks for your comments again.
The Iceland CDS settlement is small fry compared to the cow, brothers, etc.
The Icelandic banks (Glitnir, Kaupthing, and Landisbanki) were sucked into this mess by the investment bankers in London around 2005. These Icelandic bankers had no idea what these CDO’s were and they were way out of their depth. They were wined and dined by all banks and for a while, I thought they were the new Japanese. They (alone with some of the German state banks) were the buyers of last resort for a lot of the toxic junk.
Kaupthing, in particular, was the most aggressive in London. They were looking at buying everyone from Close Brothers, Fox Pitt Kelton, to the small cap London brokerages.
Their downfall didn’t really surprise me.
SEG – sometimes you get what you need…
Thanks.
Every afternoon this week i cover my S&P short position. For the first time this afternoon i really started feeling sick to my stomach. I am making money for clients but it doesn’t feel good.
I am now a day trader. I try to end the day as close to flat as is possible.
We are looking a nuclear winter in the face and i have never been more scared.
I agree with you SEG. I think the G8 leaders need to come together this weekend and close the worldwide markets down for at least until Wednesday although i would prefer the did so for a whole week. Before opening them they need to announce a coordinated plan. In the USA we need to crown 3 or 4 major banks as king, and nationlize/recapitialize those banks. The others need to die.
In addition to the bank plan we need a world wide agreement on how to handle CDS. Number one, they need to be brought into an open transparent market . Number two, only those that actually own a bond/debt instrument can get insurance (buy CDS) for that bond/debt instrument. Number three, four, five… i will leave up to people much more clever than i.
Its time for everybody to put their cards on the table.
Two days ago is someone had suggested to me that we shut down the market for any length of time i would have thought that they were crazy. Now i think it could be our only hope. The ship is sinking and the only we are all going to survive is if we all (wall street, main street, uk, euroland, aussieland, swedes, swiss, asia – everyone)start to work together.
#69
How can closing the markets solve our problems? It will be like stopping short selling. The price of financial stocks went kaput while shortselling was banned in much of September. It’s the mutual funds that are selling now.
If the objective of closing the markets temporarily is to provide politicians and bureaucrats with time to come up with a cohesive plan to combat the situation, then I’m all for it. But I am personally of the view that their hands are tied. The Central Banks HAVE BEEN working together in concert and after close to three trillion dollars of funds injected into the markets by the Central Banks, things are only getting worse.
What cards do the Central Banks have left to play? Mass guarantee on all deposits and debts? A debt moratorium? Nationalisation of all deposit-taking institutions? I personally feel only a full nationalisation can facilitate an orderly wind-down of the current mess.
did you see this post/:
“Posted by guest, Oct 10, 2008 2:14AM
This is going to be the biggest mistake in wells fargo’s history,
Wachovia has 120 billion dollars worth of option arm loans on their books.”
#71
Maybe Mexico can buy back California soon.
Everyone… We need to stop in our tracks and become old school Americans.
During 1942, before we won a battle, everyone wondered if we had the ability to do what we said we would do. Those who bet against the US was wrong.
My Dad and others like him, between drunken adventures in locations we cant talk about due to extradition rules… did what was necessary… and mopped up the Pacific.
In a world wide melt down, the US is the safest place to place your bets… That is the scariest thing.
Would you bet on a nation with zero history of success or a nation that always wins… even if they have a few bloody eyes?
Say pity for our enemy, for they die in hunger in silence as we prove our Super Status… While we mock the system we need to live on…
We are hands down ahead of the rest of the world… watch the cash flows… we also have the worlds ONLY combat traded military.
If you have not done the math… do it now… we can triple our military and have a combat harden back bone in the middle even with the draft mucking up the quality.
It appears we are playing end game here.
~SEG
Wow S&P futures are horrible. The fun continues. Fuck me