• 22 Oct 2008 at 5:25 PM

Write-Offs: 10.22.08

$$$ Ken Griffin: Another U.S. stimulus package needed [Reuters]
$$$ Merrill’s brokerage unit head may not survive [Crain's NY]
$$$ A (Slight) Pall Descends on Gala for Women Bankers [Dealbook]
$$$ Another Bald Guy Gets Top Bailout Bailiwick [Clusterstock]
$$$ Payment on Lehman CDS only around $5.2 [Reuters]

Comments (96)

  1. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 5:34 PM

    Is $5.2 billion more or less than the total amount of LEH debt being protected against?
    If less, can someone explain why this is so? No matter how “large players in the market, such as dealers and some hedge funds, had both bought and sold protection, subsequently taking both gains and losses on Lehman’s default that offset each other”, there must be some players who take the ultimate loss for the LEH debt protection.

  2. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 5:35 PM

    Ai, karamba!
    Dealbreaker is removing pro-McCain comments.
    The last bastion of capitalism is falling.
    Please save us from the crazis (sp intended)! Vote McCain/Palin!!!

  3. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 5:36 PM

    2 I noticed that too. Except the comment that was removed was not exactly pro McCain. More anti Obama. Try and write a pro McCain. If possible.

  4. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 5:37 PM

    douche bag, they’re not removing mccain comments, they shut off ALL comments on the bonuses thread because all comments (from both sides of the aisle) were fucking nuts.

  5. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 5:38 PM

    @2-4 Suck my balls
    SPODE

  6. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 5:39 PM

    actually, #12, which was some anti obama rant, was removed from the Highland thread.

  7. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 5:43 PM

    My package needs a stimulus too.

  8. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 5:44 PM

    let’s see geniuses- perhaps db is sick of the threads devolving into idiots shouting at each other no matter if they’re pro-obama/anti-mccain or pro-mccain/anti-obama?

  9. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 5:46 PM

    The reason most bald guys have holes in their pants pockets is so they can once again run their fingers through their hair.

  10. Posted by whatelseisgoingon | October 22, 2008 at 5:47 PM

    The lehman posts just goes to show you how much people not involved in the CDS market have no friggin clue about what they are talking about. these are the same people that want to regulate that market. What a bunch of idiots. Measuring a derivative market by notional is probably the dumbest thing I have ever heard. Management does it all of the time. If I pay and receive on a swap 100mm times each, all of a sudden I have 200mm in swap exposure?! It makes no sense. However, I have seen it happen where I work… people who have no idea what derivatives are have no business getting their panties in a bunch over it.

  11. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 5:47 PM

    8 Why would they care? I thought its all about page views. Quantity, more than quality. That said, I guess if the quality degenerates significantly its all over.

  12. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 5:49 PM

    8 It also might simply be a tech issue: the thread got full before IT could allocate more space.

  13. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 5:51 PM

    #10…No, the dumbest thing you ever heard was “great wealth comes from real estate”.

  14. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 5:52 PM

    It sounds like Ken Griffin and Citadel need a stimulus package.

  15. Posted by whatelseisgoingon | October 22, 2008 at 5:52 PM

    @13
    I stand corrected.

  16. Posted by whatelseisgoingon | October 22, 2008 at 5:53 PM

    @13
    I stand corrected.

  17. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 5:56 PM

    5.2BB isn’t a lot of money until your hedge fund has to cough up a few hundred million as the losing side of one of these. Sure, this stuff is all zero-sum. Unless on the hedgies on the other side can’t pay and goes under. This is still a possibility.

  18. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 6:00 PM

    Re: Political Rants…DB should have a political section in which the various nuts can go crazy in that forum. Plus, more page views. You can thank me later.
    I used to belong to a website run by a female exhibitionist named “August” in the Atlanta area. It was called “Augustlive.com”. The neo-cons started ruining general discussion threads (neo-cons like titties too I guess) so the moderator created a section of the forum for them. That kept the politics away from the informational/educational discussions as much as they were.
    I think “August” got a bad illness and I don’t know if she is still with us now or not. She was a pioneer. Me? Just an equity trader.

  19. Posted by Phobos | October 22, 2008 at 6:01 PM
  20. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 6:01 PM

    #3
    I am sorry, are you saying am I supposed to keep my comments positive? On Dealbreaker?
    Or is Obama is this untouchable deity that cannot be critisized? Are we entering not only socialism but totalitarianism/autocracy? WTF?
    Obama is a lucky young black man who benefited from a generous affirmative action. He has never held a job. He has associated with terrorists. He is married to a white-hating woman who directs his policies. He threatens to enact socialist policies. Here. In the United States of America.
    No, Obama is a nobody. And besides a natural speaking ability, he has nothing going for him.
    Vote against Obama. Save this great country.

  21. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 6:07 PM

    Oh, and Obama is a closeted anti-semite. But I bet you’ve sensed this all along.

  22. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 6:09 PM

    @20- you are a fucking idiot. no one said you had to make positive comments, just stay away from the political bs ones (no matter which candidate you support) that RUIN the threads.

  23. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 6:10 PM

    Look at this chart for ALT-A, POA and ARM resets:
    http://tinyurl.com/558bbd
    We are not even close to being half way through this crap.

  24. Posted by Phobos | October 22, 2008 at 6:14 PM

    @23
    I hate you; it’s my hope that herpes complications soon render your fingers useless.

  25. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 6:14 PM

    #20/21, I bet you fall for the scam emails saying they’ll transfer you money if you just provide your account information, too.

  26. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 6:16 PM

    @ 20 – pls don’t ever return from that intellectual safari you’re on, son
    YOU BETCHA!

  27. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 6:17 PM

    Phobos = Back office IT geek.

  28. Posted by JorgeCad | October 22, 2008 at 6:18 PM

    My thoughts – watch out for the CAD banks. They are just waiting to swoop in like vultures.
    Through blind luck (or risk management), they are the only banks in the world capable of doing this.
    Just wondering, would it not be hilarious that TD Bank picks up Citi for a song?

  29. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 6:18 PM

    Re the scary Credit Suisse reset chart from nine months ago. I think that a ton of pay option arms have already hit their maximum negative amortization ceilings (110% or 125% of original loan balance, just look at the balance sheet of FED or DSL) and have recast into fully amortizing loans. In general, many of those recast loans have already gone into various stages of delinquency. So I think the reset peak from Alt A is going to be smaller then shown on that chart because many of the mortgages have already recast.

  30. Posted by Phobos | October 22, 2008 at 6:20 PM

    @27
    Nope.

  31. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 6:21 PM

    @25
    I bet you fall for empty promises of aid to Israel despite blatant indications to the contrary (e.g., terrorists or muslim upbringing. Oh, sure, there really do exist muslims who would support Israel financially. haha)
    Really, the only good thing that may come out of Obama’s presidency is that Bloomberg gets elected. And barring the circumstance under which he decides to change presidential term limits to infinity, we may as well have very prosperous 8 years post-Obama.
    Note, however, that Bloomberg will have to run as Republican. Or independent at worst.

  32. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 6:23 PM

    @28
    Seen USD/CAD lately?
    CAD banks money value just became on par with pesos.

  33. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 6:26 PM

    @20 You are the reason people around the world hate americans i.e ignorance.
    This site is about finance, not hate speech go back to your mobile home and leave us alone.

  34. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 6:28 PM

    @33
    Move back to your igloo. You’ll be alone there.

  35. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 6:32 PM

    @28
    What CAD bank is going to expand their balance sheets to take on bloated American ones in this environment? Perhaps if a large bank is ever allowed to go into FDIC protection they’ll pick one up there. NCC can forget all about BNS being interested.

  36. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 6:41 PM

    @20- bess has been deleting pro-obama AND pro-mccain comments this afternoon b/c they’re fucking insane and ruin the threads.

  37. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 6:44 PM

    @36
    Oh, I am sorry your dumb comments (as well as other pro-Obama and anti-McCain comments) are allowed to stay.
    Just rename the site “Socialists Unite!” then.

  38. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 6:48 PM

    @37- are you retarded? seriously, are you? BOTH dem and repub comments have been deleted because they are universally asinine and HAVE NO PLACE ON THIS FINANCE SITE. GO AWAY.

  39. Posted by JohnCarney | October 22, 2008 at 6:51 PM

    Good to see that nothing’s changed in the comments section around here.

  40. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 7:02 PM

    @39
    OHHH! the big guy is BACK

  41. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 7:02 PM

    @38
    Listen. If anyone is retarded here (besides all the Obama supporters, of course), it’s you. And here’s why:
    The election outcome has a direct effect on business. On all the business.
    Whether the business is finance, construction or media (yes, publishing), everyone employed or running a business will be affected by whomever gets into the office. While all the ***chronically*** unemployed people (read, welfare) will clearly benefit only from Obama at the expense of businesses and employed people.
    If you live in NYC, are married and your spouse also works so you can barely afford to send your only child to a better school so that he can too work and not end up on welfare, then you know that a combined income of $250,000 is the bare minimum for that.
    But Obama wants to tax you more. So that your only child (also the only one you can afford without plunging into massive debts) goes to a local school with inner-city kids who get bussed-in from welfare and drug-inflicted areas. So that your child, too, can be just like them.
    And under the weight of the mandatory health coverage, your employer will think twice about the headcount, and potentially sack your job to pay for the health benefits of your colleague.
    Oh, and many businesses will just go out of business.
    And if this is not business-related, I am not sure what is.

  42. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 7:04 PM

    carney, it’s not the same without you.

  43. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 7:06 PM

    @41
    That’s easy. Can’t afford NYC? Then move to Delaware. NYC is only for trustafarians.

  44. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 7:06 PM

    @43
    That’s just mean.
    You should be ashamed of yourself.
    Vote McCain, however.

  45. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 7:07 PM

    “carney, it’s not the same without you.”
    is there something on your computer preventing you from typing http://www.clusterstock.com?

  46. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 7:09 PM

    @43
    I can afford NYC. For now at least.
    And I want to keep being able to afford NYC.
    That’s why I vote for McCain/Palin.

  47. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 7:10 PM

    @44
    “mean”? that’s so suburban

  48. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 7:11 PM

    @47
    Go fuck yourself, you racist with a tiny wiener (or none whatsoever).

  49. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 7:13 PM

    @46
    If you have to mention “for now”, then you’re clearly not NYC material (mccain or not)

  50. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 7:17 PM

    @49
    I just can’t wait till Obama taxes your little sorry ass to bankruptcy.
    What a loser!
    If you knew anything about trust funds, you’ll know that the income you receive from those is equally taxable. And $250,000 is still the bare survival minimum in the city. You may as well just donate your trust fund to the Obama campaign (so he can squander it on 100% ineffective ads).
    Oh, but you don’t have a trust fund.
    I see.

  51. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 7:24 PM

    I love sucking cock
    SPODE

  52. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 7:25 PM

    @50
    whining is what suburban people like you are good at. be my guest.

  53. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 7:27 PM

    @43 – Leave me and my homies outta your rant, asswipe.
    The Other Guy from Delaware

  54. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 7:32 PM

    @52
    Hey there. Hold your horses.
    I live and work in NYC proper (Manhattan).
    And I am not whining. And am not asking for government assistance.
    I am just asking you to help me save the country and vote McCain.
    Thank you.
    #50

  55. Posted by diablo | October 22, 2008 at 7:45 PM

    Yahoos! Go back!

  56. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 7:50 PM

    SPODE/TGFD 08′

  57. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 8:18 PM
  58. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 8:22 PM

    America better wake up before they are really disappointed:
    “It’s time to face facts. In-your-face liberalism is about to make a comeback. And this time it will be on steroids.
    Next year the Democrats will control both houses of Congress, most likely with comfortable, perhaps filibuster-proof majorities. If there is a Democratic president, too, Washington will host one of the most liberal governments in American history. Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid are more than ready to make staggeringly liberal changes in the country’s economic, social, and foreign policy.
    To get a sense of the Democrats’ ambitions, listen to them discuss the deficit. They spent the last eight years bemoaning the deficit, which they blamed on the Bush tax cuts. They continually lambasted the Republicans for fiscal irresponsibility. They promised to enact “pay-as-you-go” budget rules and restore accountability.
    Thing is, now that power is within their grasp, the Democrats have chucked all that silly talk out the window. They can’t wait to raise taxes on high-earners, dividends, capital gains, corporations, oil companies, and estates. But this tax increase is not meant to balance the budget. It’s in the name of “fairness,” and “patriotism,” and whatever revenue it raises will quickly be spent.”
    http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/015/713lugxf.asp

  59. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 8:26 PM

    Well done, #56.

  60. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 8:55 PM

    Vandalay Industries?

  61. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 9:03 PM

    Long punani brown beans. Short everything else.

  62. Posted by redpandot | October 22, 2008 at 9:22 PM

    @19 I love xkcd. nice.

  63. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 9:29 PM

    @63
    Stop it. You are a racist. Your sarcasm is going nowhere.
    We here actually care for the future of the US.
    Vote McCain.

  64. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 9:29 PM

    CITIC is F.U.C.K.E.D.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ag9uxi7.UBDE&refer=home
    Wrong end of contracts worth four years of your revenue? Good job.

  65. Posted by redpandot | October 22, 2008 at 9:33 PM

    @57 you betcha…

  66. Posted by trojan | October 22, 2008 at 9:45 PM

    i’ll take the mayo and shamwow posts over david duke or trotsky rants any day. come back guys, DB misses you
    phils are slayin it tonight

  67. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 10:12 PM

    South Park all over the crisis

  68. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 10:13 PM

    @Trojan – I never thought I would say this but I miss the mayo and sham wow idiots too. No one is going to change anyone’s mind so keep the political shit on another website. I can’t wait until this election is over.

  69. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 10:18 PM

    #68. If you are getting your info from the MSM, then as cramer would say “you know nothing”. A lot of this election involves figuring out what is the truth and what is not. You need to do this before you wake up and find you are working for your taxes and not for your own money.

  70. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 10:19 PM

    Turns out that UBS did have layoffs yesterday in Capital Markets in Stamford. Don’t know if it also happened on the floor as well but if it didn’t, it will by Nov 1. At least the stock is doing well…
    The beatings will continue until morale improves.

  71. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 10:25 PM

    @69 I suggest you go to another website to find this truth you seek.
    yahoo.com.fuckyou
    No, thank you.
    SPODE

  72. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 10:29 PM

    @69 – 68 here. As a libertarian who has no real choice but to vote Republican, I already know who I’m voting for. I’m not thrilled but the choice between the two major parties is obvious (sorry Ron Paul and Rob Barr fans but I want my vote to count). I don’t need to listen to idiots like Cramer or people on this site to tell me what I already believe. Whoever wins, let’s just get it over with.

  73. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 10:31 PM

    Ken Griffin: Give me some more money!

  74. Posted by Barack Obama | October 22, 2008 at 10:38 PM

    You bet I’ll raise your taxes! The proletariat will take back the means of production from the imperialist capitalist roaders!

  75. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 10:43 PM

    @69 later dick

  76. Posted by guest | October 22, 2008 at 11:23 PM

    SEG you out there?
    What do you think. We hit 7200 on the Dow by friday? And then get a 25% off the bottom bear market rally?

  77. Posted by guest | October 23, 2008 at 12:00 AM

    #33 “You are the reason people around the world hate americans….”
    Barack, is that you? What are you doing hanging out on this thread? Aren’t you supposed to be in Hawaii with your seriously ill, typical white woman grandma?

  78. Posted by guest | October 23, 2008 at 12:07 AM

    77, post 71 applies to you too.

  79. Posted by guest | October 23, 2008 at 12:13 AM

    Phillies!!!

  80. Posted by guest | October 23, 2008 at 12:14 AM

    #78
    Well, what a surprise — it looks like the lovely Michelle O. is here too. Right back atcha, Michelle.

  81. Posted by StupidEquityGuy | October 23, 2008 at 12:42 AM

    @76, That sounds about right… not sure of timing. I sold half of my SPY puts to soon today, the ones I put on earlier . I am rotating out of some FXE puts as I didn’t expect it to move this far this fast.
    I am heading back toward cash on this drop…
    It looks like someone in the futures market is trying to put a floor in… no clue if they can generate a bounce that we will see at open…
    ~SEG
    am currently +5,500 bps ytd over the S&P… Its about time to go to cash and coast the rest of the year…

  82. Posted by guest | October 23, 2008 at 1:01 AM

    Mahnahmahnah!

  83. Posted by guest | October 23, 2008 at 1:16 AM

    I’m not buying attempts to put a floor in. This thing is going back to its intraday lows and we’ll see if they are any good. Way too much negative newsflow with nothing really left for the government to throw up on the wall.
    I expect this to go to mid-7000′s before stopping. At which point I’ll be swapping my short positions for cash and longs.
    It may bounce first, but it is going there. I don’t think it will go much lower than that, though.

  84. Posted by ShortOil | October 23, 2008 at 1:32 AM

    800 on the S&P is the bottom

  85. Posted by ShortOil | October 23, 2008 at 1:35 AM

    and keep buying those USO puts…

  86. Posted by Anal_yst | October 23, 2008 at 1:35 AM

    this comment thread was painful to read, I can only imagine how much worse it was/would be w/out the alleged censorship, ugh, give it a freaking rest guys (or go to the ‘community’ section at least!)

  87. Posted by guest | October 23, 2008 at 4:45 AM

    @54
    NYC Proper? Go back to the burbs you freaking transplant.

  88. Posted by mrpink | October 23, 2008 at 6:54 AM

    @ SEG-
    Due to the sudden widening of the 2Y swap rates, and the sudden inversion of the 30Y swap rate, I am short ESZ8 from 905-909, avg px 907.25. I expect the 2Y swap rate, which briefly touched the 2008 mean value of 95 a couple days ago overnight to widen out to 120bps (111 or so was roughly a 1 SD move away from that 95 mean).
    Take a look at the 30Y swap, dang thing is inverted by -0.1 right now, should be around +40bps. There’s been a lot of duration reduction going on in FI, most notably a lot of hedge funds are duration sellers, opting for

  89. Posted by guest | October 23, 2008 at 7:17 AM

    It’s written PLEBS. Not PLEBES.

  90. Posted by guest | October 23, 2008 at 7:26 AM

    OK, this thread is getting boring
    Teach me some nice abbreviations like
    FUBAR = Fucked up beyond all reason
    some funny ones will be nice.

  91. Posted by guest | October 23, 2008 at 7:27 AM

    OK, this thread is getting boring
    Teach me some nice abbreviations like
    FUBAR = Fucked up beyond all reason
    some funny ones will be nice.
    Forgot to say, the top 3 weird abbreviations will be selected and rewarded in appropriate terms

  92. Posted by mrpink | October 23, 2008 at 7:31 AM

    @91 -
    my brain is fried, since i’ve been looking at the screens all night. I lose.
    -mrp

  93. Posted by guest | October 23, 2008 at 7:47 AM

    even mine.
    cmon mr.pink you can do it.

  94. Posted by guest | October 23, 2008 at 7:52 AM

    Too much political BS… Geez, let’s just compromise and move on…
    Obama sucks! Biden sucks!
    McCain sucks!
    Palin sucks (but she sucks good)!
    Vote “Gilligan 2008″!

  95. Posted by guest | October 23, 2008 at 7:58 AM

    Let’s all get along and get back to what’s really important:
    http://www.metacafe.com/watch/yt-TW3WWCXDT_0/directors_cut_of_new_gilligans_island_commercial/

  96. Posted by guest | October 23, 2008 at 4:06 PM

    @87 Spoked like a true resident of Queens

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