Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 12:42PM

DealBreaker - increasingly becoming the most worthless blog.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 12:43PM

DealBreaker - increasingly becoming the most worthless blog.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 12:44PM

Burn down burn down Hot Topic, don't let it take your soul.

And by Hot Topic, I mean Citi. And by burn down, I mean break up.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 12:45PM

lolfed > dealbreaker

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 12:49PM

i'm glad everyone thinks it's cute the short are killing citi; the longs are afraid nobody in dc has their backs; and joe six pack is caught in the middle.

bloggers busy turning assh0le phrasery as wall street founders.

it will be nice when the grownups take over again and some of the assholes are led away in cuffs.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 12:57PM

Wow, Sorkin sucks.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 1:07PM

TGFD bought 2500 shares of Citi at 3.65 yesterday afternoon at 3:57 pm. Citi is not going to fail. Closed at 3.77 with the final trade, a buy at 4:01 for 12.8 million shares. After hours closed above 4.00.

I recall one Monday morning in March when Bear opened at 2.00; a week later it was at 10.00.

Citi is not going to fail; it is far bigger, more important, and more intertwined with the economy than Bear or LEH ever were.

Gov't will make a 'special case' and directly buy some of Citi's troubled assets with TARP money. Vik shouldn't be replaced either. WTF would that accomplish? Vik's efforts are right on plan. He'll stay.

The Guy from Delaware

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 1:14PM

I said over a year ago that Citi needed to spin off it's Mort and CC Divs - Their retail banking reach and wealth management make them undervalued - if you can afford to go long on them.

Pandit wrote down some of the of-books vehicles, but they have at least another $50B floating out there, plus the losses on AltA, Prime, and Helo/Heloc c*** they have on the books.

Pandit was holding out for a big bailout - and still is - but Paulson yanked the rug out from undr him last week with his TARP administrative whims - they also put the naked short sale back in action as they want to drive Citi to it's knees - like a Mafia hit on a weak 'family' - JPM Dimon and the GS Cabal are taking everyone out:

http://yourmortgageoryourlife.wordpress.com/2008/10/06/did-jpmorgan-almost-fail-jekyll-island-investment-still-paying-dividend/

Citi is in their sites now, Lewis and B of A are next. Watch Wells scramble to get big enough to fight back - but buying WaMu c*** is not going to do it - they need to merge up with US Bank to survive - if they don’t scare each other off with the toxic mortgages they have portfolioed.

2009 will suck. 2012 will be bottom. Dow will break 3000. We will all be bankrupt.

Happy Holidays!

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 1:18PM

Don't worry, Obabma will save us! After all, didn't he pick Tim Geithner, the guy who, um, is already pretty much in charge of the mess? It was his idea to let Lehman go without preparing in any particular way for the consequences...Genius!

Oh but wait, Obama is going to spend all our taxpayer money on infrastructure! Bridges and roads to nowhere! cool, that will create lots o jobs. Also I heard he is about to unveil a plan to dig holes and fill them up again...That will create 3.2 million jobs. He went to Harvard, so that's where he must of got these great ideas.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 1:18PM

Don't worry, Obabma will save us! After all, didn't he pick Tim Geithner, the guy who, um, is already pretty much in charge of the mess? It was his idea to let Lehman go without preparing in any particular way for the consequences...Genius!

Oh but wait, Obama is going to spend all our taxpayer money on infrastructure! Bridges and roads to nowhere! cool, that will create lots o jobs. Also I heard he is about to unveil a plan to dig holes and fill them up again...That will create 3.2 million jobs. He went to Harvard, so that's where he must of got these great ideas.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 1:32PM

After all I've done for you Uncle Vik this is how you treat me. Not taking my calls and avoiding me will only make it worse. After I finish with your P&L I'm cuming for you. So put your hands in the lord because your assets belong to me.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gLN3QoN-q8

Your lover,
SFAS 142

SPODE

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 1:44PM

@11 - RIGHT..These Fed pig-rigs know a sure thing when they see it.High Commission somehow knows what the buyout price will be, cum Bear.

How Treasury money winds its way through various short and long trades over the near-term and back into their coffers is for them to know, us to find out.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 2:09PM

14@1:18pm

Before sharing your worthless wisdom, since your ire should be directed at the people who brought us to this state (Bush), learn to spell Obama so we know you are not a one year old who just stumbled over here accidentally by hitting a laptop key while breast feeding.

I have a conservative friend, conservative like me, but he is willing to support Republicans regardless. He credits any good economic event during Clinton's years to Bush senior, and any negative event during Bush junior's years to Clinton. It's the type of baffling contortions people go through to maintain ideology over good judgement.

Tim Geithner is not "in charge" of this mess, and to some extent, in an ongoing complex "difficult to solve" crisis, you want people with intimate knowledge of what is going on. It's a sensible pick by Obama, who, according to Republican campaign theology, would have picked some Islamic nut in order to bring America down. Noticed all that talk of "What will he do?" and "What strange people will he bring in?" has kind of died down. Idiots.

The "mess" is worldwide, with relatively smart people all over trying to figure out what might work. Further, those running things now (Paulson, Bernanke) are hampered by what the current administration is willing to allow.

Let's not reduce everything down to the level of how McStupid ran his campaign.

Give us a reason why Tim is a bad choice, and who you might like to see in his place. That would be a valuable contribution.

Finnegan

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 2:19PM

Keep an eye on the short interest reports and the cost of borrowing Citi shares. It's not the mythical short-sellers who are killing C - come on, most of the hedge funds are closed for winter.

It's the longs bailing out and there are no shorts looking to take profits or cover.

Implementing the uptick rule or banning short sales isn't going to solve anything. Maybe Pandit should try having long sales banned too?

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 2:24PM

What are they going to do about Citi? They'd better have Geithner come out and say something because every time Paulson opens his mouth he says something stupid and extends the panic. Can America really afford another 8 weeks of Henry Paulson? I'm not so sure.

Citi needs to mollify the critics about the balance sheet. They need the government to look at their books and make a strong, supportive statement, they need ready cash from the government like another pref infusion, the TARP should buy a few of their assets, and they should start divesting some of these non-core units.

This isn't hard, we're just seeing Citi's Pandit-led management show the same hubris we've gotten out of Dick Fuld and Hank. Sometimes a little self-effacing paranoia is good for a firm.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 2:52PM

Mark my words, Citi will be part of US government tomorrow!!

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 2:54PM

@11-

In every other instance of direct govt. bailouts of large financial institutions so far (excepting the direct capital injections of solvent banks under TARP), common equity was either diluted 5:1 or wiped out completely. Citi may not fail as you say, but what makes you think the common will be left owning anything of note?

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 2:57PM

@20 - I think your right, but the majority of people either pulling out or shorting the stock are going off of what was said on TV or papers. People claiming this is some short of non-transparency issue with the company are crazy. People mentioning CDS spreads and don't even know what they are. Claiming some mysterious derivatives are killing the company. But for the most part they have no clue what a derivative is or how it affects the company.

This started after Paulson came with the news of the TARP not being so much TARP but an evolving game plan. Then Charlie Gasparino came on air Thursday and suddenly kicked C in the back claiming there was in fighting within C, coincidentally I don't buy. If anyone has noticed the volume in the market has been extremely low lately with no news to move the markets. Its been day trader heaven. Traders are using this to move the markets with a play on C the volume has sky rocketed.

The balance is as good as its competitors or maybe better than the rest of its competitors. Fundamentals have played no part in the lunacy that happened this week. Rumor becomes possibility then a possibility becomes a concern. Then the markets pretend as if its rational.

My biggest concern is if Citi with a balance sheet is as good as its competitors, maybe better, is taking this beating in the market then what institution is safe? That means all the financials should be trading with a market cap around 20bil? Its insane.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 3:03PM

@23 - AIG is not a good example but not completely. CITI can borrow from the FED window using potentially any assets it wants. AIG is an insurance company with no such privelages.

C raised 75bil of capital this year alone, along with 25 bil of cash from the TARP. Its strange to see people pretending as if the street prices everything correctly.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 3:13PM

@11 "The Guy from Delaware" is a laid off executive admin. He also wisely bought LEH when it was trading at 8 because the price was too low.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 3:19PM

Right on, @17. Whiny wingnuts: you cannot start blaming the Obama administration for present ills until Obama actually takes office. Which is in mid-January. Get it?
Just a reminder, the present administration is called the Bush administration. Anything you do or don't like about Treasury's moves up until now is on them.
Republicans also controlled both houses of Congress 2000-2006, and were handed budget surpluses and a paying down of the national debt by the outgoing Clinton administration.
No one's got this situation all figured out, but let's try competence for a change.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 3:19PM

This argument that C is similar to Leh or Bear is ridiculous. For one C has 2 tril worth of assets and the playing field has changed. If C is continously run into the ground then all the rest of the big financials are gonna come with. Thats why most of them lost over 50% of their value this week.

If C a large institution can't weather the storm how does GS, MS survive? Don't won't make it to the new year. Obama won't even have a chance to inact policy.

I think a vote of confidence from the government is necessary. Capital infusion no, but someone coming in and confirming the stability of the bank will.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 3:34PM

Hankie Pankie learned his lesson when he let LEH fail...never will happen with C.

Sorkin eats penis.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 3:38PM

Fire Vik? For what? He wound down their "legacy assets", deleveraged, and raised capital. How exactly is doing something wrong?

Oh yeah they lost over 80% of the stock price. Oh thats right, so DID EVERY OTHER CEO ON WALL STREET.

Haven't heard anyone talking about firing Lloyd Blankfein, or John Mack on the news. How about Jamie Dimon? Everyone loves him, but his stock is down the almost 80% as well.

Who's done a good job?

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 3:45PM

Bess obviously is incapable of coming up with her own opinion on any important matter and merely says whatever someone else is saying as if she's an expert. She does not comprehend what a given situation entails (hence adopting someone else's opinion) and seems to be interested only for dramatic purposes. this shows a clear lack of journalistic integrity and while this is all fine and good, it is important to realize the utter ridiculousness of her writing for a site such as dealbreaker - equity private is good, but bess? c'mon

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 3:47PM

How to save Citi and the U.S. economy:

Step 1. Fire Pandit right now, before the markets open, and bring in John Thain. (stock pops up $9)

Step 2. Get $30 Billion debt infusion from U.S. Govt to buy time. (stock pops up to $15)

Step 3. Sell Smith Barney immediately. (stock pops up to $20)

Step 4. Break up the firm and sell everything else over the course of 3 months. (U.S. economy saved.)

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 3:50PM

@11

Explain to us why C poses a grater risk then LEH?

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 3:52PM

@32

1. John Thain ran MER into the GROUND.

Not sure how much confidence that brings.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 3:57PM

@33- C collapsing means that:

A.) ALL financial institutions are now UNSAFE.

B.) The credit spreads will blow out to levels as yet unseen.

If Leh was a nuclear bomb. C failing would be a black hole. Something I believe( I HOPE ) the officials in Washington get.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 3:59PM

@34

Thain saved MER long enough to get it acquired after O'Neal fucked it to hell. That is an amazing accomplishment. Plus, he's still trusted by the public, something Vik seems to have lost completely.

Thain is not the complete solution, but he can by C stock additional time as the company is broken up in an orderly fashion.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 3:59PM

@34, A little unfair considering he inherited the last guys problem, but hey he's a bit tarnished.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 4:08PM

@36 - People seem to not understand why calls to break up C go unheard. Even in 2006-7 the bank grew and grew its business despite calls from analysts to break up the bank to make it more profitable. Its fine being a dividend paying giant.

Citigroup is integral part of the structure for the new global economy. This why former presidents and heads of state are members of the board.

C is not going to be broken up unless all other options have been exhausted. Even if it does the business model will be duplicated with another institution.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 4:09PM

All this pontification. Who cares. Either your long into Monday or not. If you had the balls to own C over the weekend your going to have some fun on Monday. Reminds me of BSC. 2 to 10. One week. If you didnt buy it..please continue your mental masturbation or buy some UYG and grow a sack.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 4:13PM

Might add-

7) Rename corporation to Shittibank and go about business as normal.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 4:21PM

TGFD does not claim to be a financial genius. If I had bigger balls I would have bought 5k or 10k shares of Citi yesterday. 2.5k shares was all my skittishness would permit.

The comments on DB yesterday convinced me to buy, and I did so. Originally, I was going to do only 1k, but I decided on 2.5k at the last minute.

We'll see what happens, but the guy who bought 12.8 million shares at the close and TGFD both think Citi is a good bet.

The Guy from Delaware

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 4:35PM

@ 31 Eat shit and die, motherfucker. If I had to take a guess, I'd say...Felix Salmon?

--Not Bess

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 4:40PM

The stock is falling because there are more sellers than buyers. Really quite simple. Why buy C when there are literally hundreds if not thousands of better-run companies with more comprehensible balance sheets selling at a discount?

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 4:42PM

2500 shares of a $3 stock? Wow, you're a high roller Delaware guy!

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 4:45PM

C is not a single company, but at least 4. it has been put together like merging gm, harley, boeing, and caterpillar! all those things move around but don't mean anything to each other as businesses!!! that's how citi operated. i used to work there and not one division worked with the other. smith barney never worked with private banking. investment banking didn't help alternative investments. retail banking didn't do a thing for solomon brothers sales and trading business. international banking didn't mean anything to the us credit card business. etc.etc. and on top of all that, it was run by a lawyer who didn't know how to run a single business, let alone a worldwide, risk seeking mess like citi! vp inherited a garbage truck on fire heading for the derivatives cliff.

now that the balance sheet has totally imploded under the weight of toxic cdos and multiple other exposures to mortgages, you can't split it up without gov.t intervention.

by the end of the weekend, i predict, you will see goldman and morgan stanley owning the deposits. jpm will own smith barney. the remaining bank with toxic assets, credit cards, international comercial and investment banking will be stand alone and bid out to wells fargo, bac or a foreign bank like credit suisse, ubs or DB.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 4:45PM

@35

You didn't answer the question.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 4:55PM

12.5million shares isnt that big. over 1 billion traded on Friday.

i like the pref better then the common. decent chance if there is a deal that it would be a "take under" for less than the common's trading at now a la Nat City.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 4:58PM

@45 writes: "vp inherited a garbage truck on fire heading for the derivatives cliff"

Fair enough, but he also spent the past 11 months trying to "assess the situation". Absolutely no balls to make any real decisions, other than continuing Chuck Prince's failed strategy, but with the additional slogan of "getting lean" to "be well positioned for the upturn".

Vik needs to be fired today. A monkey on crack could have ran the company for the past 11 months with better results.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 4:59PM

TGFD - C is as good a bet as LEH was on the friday before it died, WM, the friday before it died, FMN & FRE on the friday before they died and AIG on the teusday before it died.

Sorry.

Government already essentially owns C - gave them $25 injection 3 weeks ago. Market cap is currentl $20B.

Short interest in C is currentl less than 3% of its outstanding float. Short interest is actually down about 40% from the highs of July 15, 2008.

In fact short interest in all financial stocks is at the lowest level of the last 18 ms. The fact that the SEC would even entertain a discussion on short selling being a problem, at this point, is indictive of how useless Chris Cox actually is. He should be fired for wasting time and energy on this useles endevour. And for full disclosure i currently have NO short postions in any financial stocks.

The governemnt will not use TARP money to buy one toxic asset from any bank. There is not enough money to buy these toxic assets.

The whole merger between WB and C was a back door resecue operation by the fed for C. WB had $312B of assets. The FDIC said that C could only lose $42B on these assets and the FDIC would guarantee the rest.The significance is as follows: Once Citi owns $312 billion in assets on which they can only lose $42 billion the remaining pool must be worth $270 billion. That $270 billion is guaranteed by the US Government – as the FDIC is a full faith and credit organisation. Citigroup can put that $270 billion (plus the $42 billion in non-guaranteed assets) in a pool and repo it – and as Treasuries yield very little they will wind up paying well under a percent of interest. The Sheila Bair decision was equivalent to a cash injection into Citigroup of 270 billion because the repo-market will turn government guaranteed loans into cash.

That cash injection would have been almost 40 percent of TARP.

Tomorrow/monday C will be broken up. GS will get the deposit base(essentially bailing out GS). The government will own the rest until asset sales can be arranged.

This will not save the U.S. economy it will only save GS (for another 6 months).

There is not ONE bank that is currently solvent. Repeat this to yourself - NOT ONE.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 5:12PM

http://www.theonion.com/content/news/fraternity_in_danger_of_losing

"The moment we got the bad news, we knew there was only one thing we could do," said Theta president Peter "Cool Pete" Barrow. "Sneak into the Federal Reserve Bank with two cans of Barbasol and a giant fishing net in order to adjust the overnight lending rate while no one is looking."

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 5:22PM

@49 great analysis.
@48 i agree. should have put that in my post too that vp should be fired. don't forget nobody else wanted the job though. by @45

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 5:23PM

Please keep all comments under 3 lines.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 5:56PM

@#49...

Thanks for your insight on Citi. Maybe you are correct; maybe not. Recent history appears to be on your side, and the next several days will tell.

@#44...

TGFD never claimed to be a high roller, just like I never claimed to be a financial genius.

@#47...

12.8 million shares in one buy certainly is a big trade. That was $47.5 million. WTF is the matter with you?

The Guy from Delaware

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 6:02PM

@ 35

You may be right, but you clearly don't have any idea why.

The world doesn't need more "sound bite" clerks trying to sound like they understand what is going on.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 6:08PM

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27859019

Gasbag now weighing in. Says nothing is moving forward.

If a tree falls in the forest and Gasbag doesn't hear it, then it didn't happen.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 6:10PM

mrp@#55...

Thanks for the fixed-income explanation. $47.5 million seems like a lot of money to bet all at once. He must have thought about it before he pushed the button.

The 'C' specialist probably ate extra when he went home last nite.

The Guy from Delaware

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 6:12PM

TGFD, come back here and fuck my ass

The Gal from Delaware

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 6:18PM

Unlike AIG, Citigroup's balance sheet is relatively healthy, with relatively strong levels of capital particularly compared to most of its competitors.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 6:23PM

@#59...

No. Thanks.

The Guy from Delaware

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 6:34PM

CITBANK N.A GONE OUT OF BUSINESS SINCE 2005

WHATS LEFT = 141 BILLION DOLLARS

Total: $141,571,360,435

REPORTING UNDER THE FOLLOWING
Acciones y Valores Banamex, S.A. de C.V., Casa de Bolsa, Integrante del Grupo Financiero Banamex
Citi Overseas Investments Bahamas Inc.
Citibank (Switzerland)
Citibank Canada
Citibank Investments Limited
Citibank Overseas Investment Corporation
Citibank, N.A.
Citicorp (Mexico) Holdings LLC
Citicorp Banking Corporation
Citicorp Deutschland GmbH
Citicorp Holdings Inc.
Citicorp Trust South Dakota
Citicorp Trust, National Association
Citigroup Alternative Investments LLC
Citigroup Derivatives Markets Inc.
Citigroup Financial Products Inc.
Citigroup Global Markets (International) Finance AG
Citigroup Global Markets Deutschland AG & Co. KGaA
Citigroup Global Markets Europe Limited
Citigroup Global Markets Finance Citigroup Global Markets Finance LLC
Citigroup Global Markets Financial Products LLC
Citigroup Global Markets Holdings GmbH
Citigroup Global Markets Holdings Inc.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
Citigroup Global Markets International LLC
Citigroup Global Markets Limited
Citigroup Global Markets Management AG
Citigroup Global Markets U.K. Equity Limited
Citigroup Institutional Trust Company
Citigroup Investments Inc.
Citigroup Trust - Delaware, National Association
Citigroup Venture Capital Equity L.P.
Citigroup Venture Capital GP Holdings

THEIR REMAINING HOLDINGS ARE LISTED AT SEC:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831001/000083100108001220/hr_citigroup09302008a.txt

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 6:42PM

@TGFD
you're gay too? why are there so many gays here on db?
no wonder Bess likes you so much.
@Gal Frm Del?
can i have a shot?

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 6:55PM

Fire Vik sounds good, but then who becomes CEO? Sir Winn Bischoff again? Yea, the market will love that.
Citi must be explicitly saved by the gov't, for the same reason Leh & WB should have been explicitly saved by the gov't. Because when they are not, and the merge or go bk, then everyone says "great, who is next?"
If Citi isn't saved this wknd, it will be interesting to see which of the 5 left (WB/WFC, BAC/MER, JPM, GS, MS)sees the most pressure on Monday.
CDS says MS, GS then BAC. I wonder when everyone says "hey maybe we need to do something bc we are all fucked if the next one fails."

Cheers B1tches,
Tanned Banker

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 6:59PM

@#63 = @#59 = clown imposter

A real Gal from Delaware wouldn't have asked for an assfuck so quickly the way they do on Wall St.

The Guy from Delaware

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 7:00PM

all the big banks (wfc, bac, jpm, gs, ms) will be majority owned by the govt. within a year.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 7:11PM

cluzo@#64...

TGFD got rid of SDS after a loss. Tried my hand with SRS last week several times and escaped with a small gain. I think I'll either stop trading ETFs altogether, or I'll hold onto them a bit longer than 15 minutes. I may try some SSO next week... I don't know. Thanks for asking.

The Guy from Delaware

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 7:22PM

some stupid things i saw at citi
unsecured lending to private equity general parnters who leveraged their equity portfolios and invested in other PE funds!
leveraged municipal bond fund that went to 35x due to mis management eventually blowing up and losing billions.
pushing unsecured lending on every tootless, idiot broker and their clients.
vik doing nothing with any urgency at all. a year ago he knew how massive this debacle was but stuck to weil/prince "master plan." should have split it up when he could have. or maybe they were just hiding massive balance sheet holes as long as possible?
$400M to name shea stadium citi field. what a bust.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 7:22PM

Thanks cluzo - always like to hear your opinion.

Perhaps i was to dramatic in saying all banks are insolvent but certainly the likes of MER,BAC,GS,MS,C,WFT and perhaps even JPM are IMHO currently insolvent.

I believe the @45 may have had a better take on the split up of than i. But i absolutely believe that C's deposit base will go either to GS alone and/or split with MS. Thus creating a back door bailout of both institutions.

Thank you for the link to the WSJ story.

I don't agree with "to big to fail". I 100% disagree with what the Fed has done with AIG. I think a much more creative solution could have been effected with respect to AIG's CDS counterparties (of course this would have adversely affected GS).

However, at this point their is no confidence in this system. Letting another big name financial instituion go the way of LEH would lead to
DJ 5000.

Playing devils advocate, i am also not saying that saving C (and by saving i mean not an AIG bailout, but saving as in breaking it up in the manner that #45 suggests) will prevent us from going to DJ 5000. It just means we won't get there by Wednesday.

@ 49

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 7:30PM

Why is it good to be selling off assets at fire sale prices in a distressed market when the assets are now effectively owned by us (assuming you are a taxpayer). It would seem to me that it would be best to retain the assets and sell into a recovered environment. Do you see a lot of the "smart money" PE guys selling companies right now?

The problem would appear to be the remaining private investors desire to pay back the "loans" and then somehow convince the government that its equity kicker was excessive so as to "unlock value" for predecessor shares that is really being stolen from taxpayers. It amazes me that they are even at the table at all, given the rat infested clusterfuck AIG has been for the last five years. They should be happy they can still sell their stock on the NYSE at this point.

I call for the whole workout plan to be revisited, with time spent thinking about how best to realize on the value of all the companies assets to maximize the recovery to the US government. Perhaps it is time to take the company through a pre-packaged bankruptcy with the remaining funds under existing government lines being restructured as DIP financing and the unsecured claims reduced to reflect the lack of actual value to cover those claims. The US govn't could provide a stalking horse bid for majority control (say 60%) and retain the minority stake for itself.

I mean, we spent a couple hundred years developing a bankruptcy system that has worked well historically but everyone has now thrown this by the wayside at the behest of a few old, bald men who wield power by instilling fear to circumvent the system and represent the interests of a very small number of overly wealthy individuals.

Call me a socialist but I think we are getting fucked.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 8:01PM

@TGFD
so you think gal id really a guy? crossdresser waiting to give you a "surprise"?
oh wait, she's your sister?

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 8:18PM

FYI, new article on CNBC.com

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 8:21PM

I saw this and thought of TGFD. Didn't he say he was going to be 60 with a full head of hair and chicks of all ages hanging on him? Take a look. Hahaha

http://galleries.adult-empire.com/54/5418/269/5.jpg

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 8:45PM

@74,that's the same article @57 linked.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 9:00PM

Bove:

The following programs backstop Citigroup’s liabilities:
a) its deposits are FDIC insured;

b) the company is working out a program to insure some of its debt with the FDIC;

c) the Federal Reserve discount window is always open to the company;

d) it can sell commercial paper to the Fed;

e) it can use the primary dealer debt facility;

f) its deposits, which equal $780 billion, are primarily sourced overseas (64%) giving the bank greater diversity in capturing funds;

g) it has access to bank protection programs in multiple countries around the world;

h) it has $393 billion in long-term debt;

i) it has net free cash flows;

j) it has paid down $94 billion in long-term debt this year and $42 billion in short-term debt; and

k) it is reducing the size of its balance sheet faster than any other company in the banking industry (estimated $300 billion).

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 9:30PM

I've got it! Paulson to replace Pandit as CEO!

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 9:30PM

I've got it! Paulson to replace Pandit as CEO!

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 9:31PM

I've got it! Paulson to replace Pandit as CEO!

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 9:31PM

@49

I got kinda hard reading your post. What does that mean?

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 9:43PM

How exactly did everyone of these large financials become insolvent in a week???????

Oh thats right, FUCKING PAULSON!

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 9:58PM

Citi stock will pop Monday with no news. No govt seizure, no bankruptcy filing and the stock goes to $6. There's no JPM in this situation to freeze funds and force liquidation like Lehman. If Pandit quits, the stock goes up another $2. What exactly are they paying Rubin for?? He hasn't said a word.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 10:02PM

The revolving limit on my Premier Pass Elite card randomly went from $15,000 to $20,000.

FWIW.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 10:04PM

@85,

Thats what I was thinking. Vik doesn't seem interested in playing this game. I think he's not folding to the pressure. He believes in his numbers and trust Crittenden's ability.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 10:30PM

Even if C survives in some AIG type of agreement, I have to wonder what that means for many other financials (like HIG, MET etc.) The slush fund is getting smaller as the number of firms deemed too big to fail is increasing. Sooner or later Hank, Tim and all their friends will run out of stuff to plug an ever increasing number of holes in this dam. Happy shorting all.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 10:31PM

@ 78

Dick Bove has been wrong about finacial insitutions for the last 18ms.

Anyone listening to him would either have little or no capital left.

On March 20, 2008 (post BSC collapse) Dick Bove said:

"The actions taken by the Federal Reserve were innovative, dramatic and, in my view, brilliant because they went right to the problem," Bove wrote in a note to clients. "The actions being taken by the Federal Reserve are being mirrored by the Treasury, which now has finally grasped the scope of the problem."
Interest rate reductions and steps to inject more cash directly into the banking system will help banks generate more profit. While most market participants are still worrying about write-downs and falling home prices, investors can now buy bank stocks at their cheapest levels in almost two decades, Bove said.
"The last time an opportunity of this nature existed to buy bank stocks this cheap was in 1990," the analyst wrote. "The next time will be in 20 years. This is a once in a generation opportunity."

If you had followed Dick Bove's advice on March 20, 2008 and bought the following names GS,MS,BAC,MER,JPM,LEH,AIG,WM and WFC,
you would have lost about 85% to 90% of your money.
The S&P 500 is down 38% from March 20, 2008.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 10:47PM

@ 82 - it means you and spode should start hanging out.

@ 84 - if their is no announcement on C tomorrow/monday - C will see a $2 in change handle, by the end of the day.

@49

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 10:54PM

@89,

Bullshit.

@88

Bove was making a comment about the overall system, that is unless your talking about the some other statement you didn't quote.

Bove's new comments are just about C.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 11:10PM

I mean besides Nouribini, who saw this coming?

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 11:25PM

Sandy Weil* = Jimmy Cayne

Sandy too went from Billionaire to <$50 Million in one year....

He has charity pledges of $25M out...

*16 million shares; 3 million underwater options & bought more C @ $30/sh. in Jan '07...

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 11:25PM

@91 everyone whose head wasn't stuck up their ass saw this coming.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 11:30PM

Who the fuck is Tom Maheras...$30M Bonus?

WTF

They canned Dimon for this type of schlock

Never heard of this tool & he looks like he is 22

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 11:30PM

Just a thought...

With Citi's stock tanked in the past week, I would expect the bank regulators to be in there saying that Citi must increase their reserve amounts. I've heard none of that. WhereTF are they.? How come they haven't been hammering GS, MS and others too? Those stocks haven't exactly shined either.

I guess that Citi must be financially sound, just as #78 says. What other explanation could there be?

The Guy from Delaware

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 11:34PM

Tom Maheras who resembles an adult Harry Potter, was in charge of Citi’s capital markets’

-FT

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 11:36PM

@94, WTF are you talking about? WTF are you looking at? Clue us all in, please.

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 11:38PM

@90, It was on Jan 20th that Bove came out saying how Citi may have "excess capital" and the stock was a "solid buy".

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 11:38PM

Maheras, a Notre Dame graduate, he worked as runner on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He started at Salomon Brothers in 1984 and by the early 1990s had become a trader of junk bonds.

....impressive

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 11:42PM

the guy from DE needs to get the duck outta dodge. Whatta male wideclops!

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 11:43PM

@ 90

My point was generally Bove has been wrong on the financials ever since he turned bullish in late 2007.
The title of the report i refernece in @88 was issued on March 20, 2008 was "THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IS OVER".

Here are some more specifics.

Dick Bove has been strongly recommending C since late 2007. On 12/14/07 he said in reference to C "The dividend is not going to be cut. It is not even remotely possible that the dividend will be cut." Then he went on to say that C dividend would actually INCREASE in 2008, as a sign of the strength of the company.

On October 3, 2008 on CNBC "Fast Money" Bove said "he would want to make sure to have a HUGE position in Citigroup".
Dick, said the commercial bank problems are WAY overblown. A year from now we'll be looking back and
slapping our foreheads for not investing more...."

On August 21, 2008 - Bove slapped a strong buy on LEH saying "Lehman continues to be one of the most attractive firms in the business".

On Febuary 4, 2008 Bove upgraded BSC to market perform. On March 11, 2008 he upgraded BSC to a buy.

For the last 18ms Dick Bove has simply been wrong on C. The same was he was wrong about BSC and LEH.

You may like his analysis, you may even agree with it. I am not saying you are wrong. I am saying he is.

@88

Posted by guest , Nov 22, 2008 11:58PM

@#94,#96,#99...

That's just great. Citi's talking to Uncle Sam about salvation, and then they go and give this byclops a $30mil bonus. Real smart Vik.

That'll surely make Uncle Sam, the Congress, and Main St very happy. It'll also go a long way to restoring confidence in Citi.

As a newly prominent shareholder in Citi, TGFD must now vote for Vik's immediate dismissal, for reversal of the byclops' bonus, and for immediate termination of the byclops.

The Guy from Delaware

p.s. I was just kidding about the 'prominent' part.

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 12:02AM

#97, read the NYT article abt Citi and risk. This is why Palin hated the liberal NY media. BC they would eventually expose our banks and cause such Panic. If Palin...I mean McCain/Palin won, she would censure the liberal media and news abt Citi's balance sheet would not be on the front page on Sunday...our economy would then have been saved! If only she...I mean they won.

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 12:02AM

#97, read the NYT article abt Citi and risk. This is why Palin hated the liberal NY media. BC they would eventually expose our banks and cause such Panic. If Palin...I mean McCain/Palin won, she would censure the liberal media and news abt Citi's balance sheet would not be on the front page on Sunday...our economy would then have been saved! If only she...I mean they won.

Sleep Tight B1tches,
Tanned Banker

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 12:03AM

what bove said in the past is irrelevant, even Meredeth Whitney would cede that the statements he made about citi in #78 are facts.

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 12:03AM

Also, laying of 52,000 people and then giving the byclops a $30mil bonus just won't cut it with anybody who's looking. Shame on Vik. Is he f'n stupid or what?

The Guy from Delaware

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 12:26AM

Make that byclops Maheras Citi layoff #52,001. That will help restore confidence in Citi.

The Guy from Delaware

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 3:34AM

Shitty is to be nationalized. That's the only possible outcome. Nationalized, dismantled and sold off piece by piece as time permits.

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 8:32AM

Any news yet? Is Citi the new U.S. Bank of America.

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 8:40AM

More financial shitstorm on the way:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fyzS68RYeE8

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 9:00AM

How many Wall Street CEOs know even 1/10th as much as this mortgage insider?

http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=markmti&view=videos

The actions of said CEOs over the last 5 years indicates clearly: NONE.

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 9:26AM

@112/@113

Self promoting SPAM.

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 9:30AM

capitalism is being tested guys. stay strong. we need to get back to the basics. was 1920 america that bad anyway? we need to get back to the days of knowing your customer and knowing your provider. that will happen.

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 9:33AM

and americans need to get comfortable with making less monday. that obviously is going to happen also. we need to start saving again. i just don't understand how we could lose sight of all that important stuff our grandparents taught us...

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 9:42AM

C is in denial.

Consumer biz is the only thing worth taking (even with looming cc defaults). Gov't will broker a deal with GS/MS. US Bankcorp will pull a Wells/Wachovia.

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 9:46AM

How much do you wish you started that brokerage house that advertises on CNBC? The one with "no toxic assets" and the bad voiceover.

www.sipc.org

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 9:54AM

I love a big hard cock up my ass

The Guy From Delaware

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 10:00AM

115/116 is a Smith Barney broker. Doesn't get it. What goes down, must come up, right 115? Know your customer??? This isn't as simple as selling a stock to a client.

In 1930's a dollar invested was a dollar for the most part. At the peak, a dollar invested was probably 5 or 10 cents of real money. That has to unravel, question is how far? Not back to 1 for 1 as your grandparents might have suggested.

It wasn't being dumb, it was being leveraged, and your LLC investors were leveraged, and the banks that leveraged your LLCs were leveraged. Money was so easy, prime brokerage houses were falling over themselves to give you more CHEAP money. Your investors demanded performance that was achievable only through leverage and the PB banks didn't have revenue if they didn't practically give the money away.

With 50% of trading coming from hedge funds and leveraged cheap money that has dried up...and now C going down...short short short.

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 10:10AM

@114 -- Not SPAM, click and learn. Too bad the CEO morons, and home "owners" didn't listen to this guy, who's been out there with the same message for over 3 years.

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 10:11AM

I'm the wayne gretzky of american sex.
And I kissed katie perry last night.
What yo got, beeytches?

The Guy From Delaware

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 10:25AM

@120, former Lehman CMBS, sorry. if i was smith barney i'd still have a job.

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 10:37AM

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10544684

This NZ Herald article just hit the wires a few minutes ago, has more details on what's going on. Still a lot of speculation, but much better than the useless CNBC and WSJ fluff we've been reading.

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 10:44AM

@118, yep IB ftw!

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 10:59AM

D. Bove would make a good department store Santa.

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 11:10AM

You heard it here first

MS gets the deposits
WFC gets brokerage, ibanking and capital markets
US taxpayers pays the balance

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 11:45AM

"But he noted that what caused the largest problem for some banks was that they retained dangerously big positions in certain securities — like C.D.O.’s — rather than selling them off to other investors"

Phew..some lucky "investors" dodged a major bullet there.

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 11:56AM

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/venture-capital-200811181405/

It's not all bad news, PPT Capital Partners is raising a new fund. I'm definitely on board.

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 1:34PM

Updated report from the Gasbag as of 1:03. Potential capital injection from the Feds on the way.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27873985

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 2:12PM

@#119 = @#122 = TGFD Wannabee Imposters. 122 is better than 119, though.

@#75...

Ha! Ha! Very funny indeed. You get the clown award for the day.

That guy in the photo can't be TGFD; he doesn't have any hair on top, and unlike TGFD, he has the toilet-seat look. Besides, he doesn't look like me at all. I look much younger, and I'm in much better shape.

BTW, anybody who has 5 chicks hanging on him all at once must have something going for him. Unlike you, the guy in the photo knows how to attract chicks.

The photo is amusing, though. Thanks.

The Guy from Delaware

Posted by guest , Nov 23, 2008 2:33PM

cluzo@#72...

You wrote that you're "buying way out of the money calls on the sds and sso".

I like your idea, and I've been thinking about it. Since TGFD is no financial genius, I must ask - How far out of the money, and how far out into the future?

The Guy from Delaware