European Markets All Out Of That Special European Flair, May Turn To Snorting Zoloft. (Reuters)
Markets across Europe were down overnight on continued credit worries and fear that the incoming administration may not be able to move quickly enough. In an attempt to allay panic it looks as though the EU CB is going to posture for rate cuts; we should be looking for a 50bps announcement sometime in the near future.
The FTSE was down 2.8% (at print), primarily on Commodities and Banks. As Oil prices have fallen, so goes those who sell – we saw BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Cairn Energy and Tullow Oil all fall back between 1% and 3%. Also of note, the mining sector saw a pull back overnight as metal prices fell in response to Vedanta Resources posting a 24.7% drop in first-half profit.
Bank of England Makes Rate Cut. (WSJ)
BOE cut their rate to 3% overnight; conservative numbers had it at 4%, liberal 3.5%.
Cerberus May Be Separating GMAC, Looking At Bank Formation (Bloomberg)
The idea is to spin off control of GMAC to investors, and allow it to blossom into a bank so as to take advantage of Government money. The move would keep Cerberus falling under Banking Regs, and possibly save GMAC. GM would have to give up its 49% stake in the company to avoid regulations, but one wonders if there’s not a super-secret master plan there.
Barclays To Buy Italian Mortgage Lender. (AP)
“The purchase increases the value of Barclays mortgage book by 1.1 billion euros ($1.4 billion) — or nearly 10 percent. Before this deal, Barclays mortgage book was worth roughly 12 billion euros ($15 billion).”
IEA Projecting $100 Barrels. (FT)
“The developed world’s energy watchdog has doubled its long-term price expectation from last year’s $108 a barrel for 2030 and assumes oil prices will rebound from today’s $60-$70 a barrel to trade, in real terms adjusted by inflation, at an average of more than $100 a barrel from 2008 to 2015.”
This is still optimistic, $200 barrels in 2030? The way things are going a bottle of Aspirin is going to cost $200 in 2030.
If all it takes to call energy prices 20 years from now is a flair for the ridiculous, I’m well qualified make calls on Economic Policy in 2030: I have it on good authority that in the near future we’re going to learn how to clone hotdogs. They’re going to be so abundant they’re going to become our currency: 20 hotdogs would equal roughly a Nickel, depending on the strength of the Yen. A barrel of Oil will cost between 60,000HD and 80,000HD.
Nikkei slides 6.5 pct as Toyota, Isuzu hammered. (Reuters)
I’m not upset that Japan failed miserably at picking itself up off the floor, I’m pissed that they made everyone watch. It’s one thing to admit you suck, take Emo kids for example: you know better than to look at them, you certainly don’t talk to them, and you couldn’t give a shit about their Grandmother. I feel like we’ve been made to care about Japan’s Grandmother, and we should all be pissed.
That being said, the Nikkei closed down 6.5% as Japanese automakers announce people aren’t buying their shit. Also of note in the story: they too are looking to the new US administration to quell economic fears.
Table of Projected Bonus Cuts. (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg has put together a table of bonus cuts they see coming down the road after talking with a consulting compensation firm. I want to emphasize here that this came from a consulting firm, which we all know is in the sales business.
It looks like anyone ever mentioned in a proxy statement is going to take it the hardest (60 – 70% reduction) with PE and IB following suit (at 30 – 45%).
As we love to compile our own data, anyone with concrete/rumored numbers for their firm are encouraged to email them to tips (AT) dealbreaker (DOT) com or text them to 973-495-0177.
–William Richards
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Too change, didn’t read. Rawr.
Nice Will Ferrell as Haray Caray reference in the FT article commentary
PE 25-35% less?! If that is true this world is as unjust as my handicapped unemployed friend always say it is…
YES HE CAN!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081106/wl_nm/us_russia_medvedev_putin
-General M. Bison
yeah bison but can you?
hate to quote the competition, but Carney has a story that AQR will be cutting half its staff by end of the month; already did IT and backoffice layoffs this week, supposedly AUM are down 80%.
why is everyone so concerned with AQR? Kabiller & Asness? had a chance to work for them few years ago… did I miss the boat? ;)
oh no more unemployed backoffice folks. it will be busy on db’s message board today…
” If all it takes to call energy prices 20 years from now is a flair for the ridiculous, I’m well qualified …”
STFU !!!!! Now everyone will know what it takes to be an oil analyst. Jayzus!!
uk rates cut by 150bps
What tipped you off, 10? the wsj piece billy dicks linked to above? nice catch.
who will win the world series?
@7: because of the arrogance of K&A, how they’re brilliant & their models so complex – yet somehow when the quants fell, they blamed it on too many people with the SAME model. Guy could not talk more highly about his brilliance, etc. and how he had figured out a way to be market-neutral, blah blah.
Jim Simons seems to be the only guy who really does have it figured out (at least in his own fund, not RIEF) and he keeps his mouth shut. Except for the cigarettes.
Nice idea about the hotdogs Willy but i think our new pres is more into chicken wings…
muhahaha.
Speaking of RenTech, how are they doing? Haven’t heard diddly.
#8 is a d-bag, what do you do genius? Whats so special about you that you look down your nose at others? You were probably the kid in high school that got stued in the locker, then became the guy in college that could never get laid. I believe in karma, hopefully you will get canned and you will see what it is like asshat.
Signed,
Employed trader looking to survive 09 like everyone else
@6 carney’s aqr post is retarded. it’s about some a few back office employees and then he quotes a number that a “source” supposedly told him but doesn’t know if its with regard to ONE of AQR’ funds or the whole firm.
AQR for the most part has a very different strategy than Rentec. AQR is supposed to be more fundamental focused with a longer holding time, while Rentec (for the most part) mostly looks at technical factors on intra day basis (essentially scalping or electronic market making).
I would expect Rentec to be ok (Medallion) while AQR to bleed.
#16 believes in karma, i believe in the power of american natives…
16, 8 here, Hi, I’m in PE, and sorry, not likely to get canned since PE firms hardly ever fire people.
As for you, don’t worry, you sound like the type to get fired but, hey, there will probably be another clown that will hire you, and you’ll have some new people’s money to lose.
Best of luck and take it easy on the cafeine.
@12: thanks. I might just give Kabiller a call (still have his contact info.) as of course I’m a “unique candidate” (whoa, almost threw-up there… ;) )
Any rumors on citadel’s ytd a/o oct m/e?
Rentec was up 16% in Oct and over 100% YTD. vol is good to those guys.
PE people never get laid off 19? I’m sure there are some people in PE that are less than confident these days, but whatever. I am actually up this year, I dont trade garbage mortgage backed sht that i dont understand like the people that put us in this mess, but thanks for asking.
@15
How is it karma if someone got beat up his whole life then gets fired?
Back in the cage please.
Layoff Watch: AQR Swings The Axe*
John Carney | Nov 6, 08 8:19 AM
*Update: AQR says this post is wrong in every respect.
The once high flying AQR Capital began its first round of layoffs yesterday, according to a Clusterstock source. The first round of cuts has mainly seen job losses in backoffice and IT, with about half of those departments cut, sources say. Front office staff are expecting cuts soon.
Technically, we already know how to clone hotdogs, since hotdogs are just ground-up pigs, cows, and chickens. It’s not even that hard.
24: Payback for something bad in their last lives, maybe? Dunno.
#24,
Etymologically “karma” just means “action,” with connotations of “cause.”
Karma in its philosophical sense refers acordingly to the critical fact that what we do has consequences — and #15′s invocation thereof seems apt.
Thx 27, appreciate it. Long story short, the guy is a douche. In a weird way, maybe the positive thing about this crisis is that we can rid ourselves of all of these elitlist jerkoffs who read you their resume everytime you meet them. When your job is your whole identity, well I wish you good luck.
what’s the deal with global alpha?
medallion really up 100% this year?
@28
You whiner. Now you say i’m a douche but if we would meet in a bar you’d probably like me and want to become friends.
Than, i would fingerbang your girlfriend while you were at the loo and slap you on the shoulder with the same hand.
why care about AQR backoffice layoff at all? i want to know what gs severance was.
now it says “AQR declined to comment on the record for this story.”
What does AQR stand for? Asness,… who are Q and R?
2030 – Oil = $28/bbl
–The Guy with the Time Machine
@34
Hope your timemachine is not from Delaware cause everything from there sucks ass.
@ 34
So Tata figured out that Magic Carpet thing after all, huh?
@33: it’s not his name, it’s an acronym for Applied Quant Research or something.
My father was in Medallion, starting in early 1990s. They booted him out to RIEF a few years ago, and since then it’s Medallion +, RIEF “so sorry to report another down quarter”. better not count on that inheritance.
does anyone know what GS’s severance was?
@38: I heard 6 months’ salary & full benefits
@39 – that’s it? no bonus for 2008?
37- If your dad was really in Medallion for 10+ years and then had all his money put in RIEF, he is still WAAAAAY ahead of the game so I’m not gonna feel too bad for him.
40 is really funny! i believe one gets fired for sucking, the antithesis of deserving a bonus (they’re cutting their bottom performers)