Opening Bell: 11.05.08

Posted by Dealbreaker, Nov 05, 2008, 8:09am

Obama elected president (AP)
The general trend of the next day/week/month is going to be to talk about the President Elect, because everyone has an opinion as to where he's going to take us; we're all masters of the political universe (too). While I can respect that to a certain degree, I'm not playing the role of prophet on this one: in the realm of what's possible in the next four years I'm certainly not the one that should be turned to for what's probable. Moreover, this isn't the venue for it.

So, we'll move on.


Wall Street's Extreme Sport (NYT)
Adventures in the Patently Obvious:


"The miss by Wall Street analysts shows how models can be precise out to several decimal places, and yet be totally off base."

It's good someone's keeping an eye on those tricky mathenators; God only knows what would happen if equations ran amuck.


Managed Futures Find Green Pastures (WSJ)
We've watched in horror as the Hedge Funds have been absolutely decimated this year, but in all the carnage (and for not being able to put down my popcorn) it escaped my attention that Managed Futures, the bastard child of Wall St., have been making a strong showing. WSJ has the sector at 8.9% up YTD through Oct across $234.1B, compared to the average Hedge Fund at -18.9% (the methodologies for deriving the numbers isn't sourced, however).

LIBOR Taking It's Time Coming Back Down (Bloomberg)
The LIBOR is down (at print vs. in article) to 2.51, from the high water mark at 4.82 on October 10th, which as Bloomberg points out is 151bps over the FED target rate for overnight loans, whereas the 5 year average close August 2007 was 22bps over target.


Nikkei Traders Pick Up Market, Leave Self Respect Lying On The Floor. (Reuters)
The volatility on the Japanese exchange is almost unbearable; they've turned into hyper-reactionists. That being said the article cited the Election (of course), Oil movements, and the possibility that the Banks are rebounding as reasons for the surge (4.5%) last night.


The Swiss Do Their Best To Balance Their Books (NYT)
On the heels of reporting the unexpected Q3 gain by Swiss All-Star UBS ($252MM), we find that Swiss Re has lost $258MM over the same period. What's to blame? "hurricane damage, losses at its life and health business and markdowns on assets from the global financial turmoil."


Italy And Spain To Go The Way Of Iceland? (Bloomberg)
I'm not going to lie: I watched in glee as Iceland threw its hands into the air and went screaming, laughing as England did their best to save face as the country crumbled. It's one of those events you kind of wish you were in on, elbowing the guy standing next to you and pointing at the wreck as if it say: "Holy Shit, did you see that?!"

But, let's be real: Iceland didn't have a lot to offer. Sure there were majestic fjords or whatever the hell Iceland has, but it wasn't the women depot, booze infested paradise I'm outbound to should I ever have time for a vacation. Spain and Italy are, and they need to be treated with the respect that such an accomplishment affords them.

Deutsche Bank AG made the list too, zee Germans won't let that shit fail though. Don't worry your pretty little heads.

--William Richards

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