Your elected representatives are due to announce something terrifying during an "Auto loan compromise press conference" at 2:30 eastern time.
Is this:
1. A fed loan to the big three? (If so, under what terms?)
2. A program to preserve existing auto loans and encourage the tightwads in auto finance to loosen up? (If so under what terms?)
3. A large hole in the ground on the outskirts of Detroit which will be filled with fresh $100 bills. (This is the cost savings option Republicans fought tooth and nail for).
Winner gets a Ford Expedition.*
I have a side bet running with Bess on how accurate our readers are with this sort of thing, so pick well.
Four senators reach bipartisan auto aid deal [Reuters]
* Non-employees of Goldman Sachs or Goldman Sachs Employees are not eligible.
UPDATE: PSYCHE! Leadership now says: No Deal, Howie! The Big 3 will get another shot in December (if they last that long).
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:17PM
THIRD BITCHES
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:18PM
I bet they will get immediate access to the $25 billion which had been set aside for them earlier
-Jobless Dealbreaker
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:18PM
Thank god I qualify for the car!
4) Equity infusion favorable to existing shareholders.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:19PM
#1 or closest. Free Money train leaves for Detroit tonight. Kash'n Kari personally delivering the pouch. All 3 go on crack bender and burn through the money in 48 hours, then cry to Obama in January for more of this Blue Magic
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:20PM
must find wideclops. it can see into the future approximately 2 hours.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:21PM
Guessing that Gov't will bail out Big Three but Toyota will manage Ford, Honda will manage GM and Yugo will manage Chrysler.
Everybody wins.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:21PM
Does anyone think it would be cheaper to shut down GM & Chrysler and just pay their employees to be retrained to do something different? They could be the skilled & unskilled labor on the new infrastructure spending I'm sure is coming down the pike next.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:21PM
It isn't a loan when you have no prospects of having it repaid back. That is called a gift.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:22PM
1.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:22PM
Fed loan to big TWO
GM gets the jeep and the minivan
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:23PM
@7 here - I forgot to vote... I vote for #3.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:23PM
They will try to give themm immediate access to the $25 billion already set aside but my guess is it will hit too many roadblocks and congress will break without passing anything.
Posted by Anal_yst , Nov 20, 2008 1:24PM
@ 5
It was all I could do to not snarf when I read that, you outrageous bastard
Oh, and I'll take choice z) preserve equity (dumb), infuse capital (likely "debt" with preferential/loose terms), make zero stipulations about management changes or restructuring of labor or benefits contracts/obligations.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:24PM
I heard they will announce Wideclops as the AUTARP representative ( and use about $2m off the top to get her cosmetic surgery + new wardrobe )
Posted by Investorcluzo , Nov 20, 2008 1:24PM
different subject, sorry not time for doom and gloom: where's the best burger in the city? dive or otherwise? I'm hearing differing views...please discuss.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:25PM
My prediction:
Whatever they do, it will have unintended consequences that will backfire in a manner similar to all government intrusions on the free market.
signed,
Milton Friedman
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:26PM
Why can't the gov't just say the following:
If you buy a car that gets X MPG we will give you a tax credit
If X > 35 $2.5k
If X > 40 $3k
If X > 45 $3.5k
Just incentivize the sht out of buying high MPG cars. It gets consumers properly aligned with the ultimate goal of weening the US off foreign oil and it gives the automakers reason to produce high MPG cars.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:26PM
forget this, trade sport stocks on oneseason.com
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:27PM
it's # 1 - and welfare for the U.A.W. that's all
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:28PM
One dollar. I'm guessin' we're playing Price is Right rules right?!?!?
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:29PM
@ Cluzo
Burger joint at Parker Meridien...hands down..
Also if these SH^&BRICKS in congress give a penny to the AS&HATS in Detroit I'm voting for National Socialists in the next election.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:29PM
Cluzo:
Burger Joint
118 W 57th St , New York , NY , 10019
Posted by NAS Keflavik boi , Nov 20, 2008 1:33PM
repoman is ALWAYS intense
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:35PM
http://www.freep.com/article/20081120/BUSINESS01/81120050
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:35PM
@cluzo
actually, if downtown, check out "Charly's"
wideclops recommends. and from her perch in midtown, she has a clear view and says "go now, no line."
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:35PM
$20 says a Senator rides in on an elephant wearing a cowboy hat shouting come on down and get a good deal at Federal Auto Mart*
*no credit needed just sign here. No cooling off period.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:37PM
EMOCRATIC LEADERS TO CONSIDER AUTO AID IN DECEMBER
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:38PM
http://www.freep.com/article/20081120/BUSINESS01/81120050
Posted by EricM , Nov 20, 2008 1:39PM
They will announce a stunningly unimpressive program that in their puny minds is large enough to solve every single problem in the auto industry and deliver rainbows and lollipops to all that will only make the situation incrementally worse. The details of which are completely irrelevant.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:40PM
I work at goldman sachs
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:47PM
A temporary fed loan to all 3, subject to:
1) execs required to use bicycles for all travel;
2) all employees and US factories remain intact and thus running at 5% capacity;
3) rock, paper, scissor betweeen CEOs, loser dresses up like a witch and burned alive in front of the house;
4) "Injured" workers currently on sweeping duty have wages drastically slashed to $40 per hour;
5) auto bailout will be an amendment to the "Exemption from Excise Tax for Wooden Dollhouses, GI Joe Figurines and Cabbage Patch Kids Bill";
6) LIBOR floor of 100bps.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:47PM
too detroity didn't read
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:52PM
Pay Per View Steel Cage Match between an Auto CEO and a Congressman/woman, if the CEO wins they get the money. All proceeds go to the congressional christmas party, that's right bitches they are still partying.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:52PM
Big Vik removed the C ticker from the monitors in Citi's elevators. That should build confidence in your transparency viki!
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:52PM
my vote: cohen walks into GM and sends everyone home for the rest of the year, firing the SUV crowd all together.
Ford bans access to dealbreaker.com hoping no one will notice.
wideclops sits atop the Chrysler Building and shoots pedestrians with lasers from her eyes.
--phobos.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:54PM
Big Vik removed the C ticker from the monitors in Citi's elevators. That should build confidence in your transparency viki!
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 1:55PM
too socialisty.....still read, though
Posted by NotNasser , Nov 20, 2008 1:59PM
A version of 2: The "research" money will be directed to basic solvency, GMAC will magically become a "bank," and the feds will make it clear that the recently bailed-out banks better darn tootin' if they know what's good for them be nice to their auto making debtors.
Anything more dramatic will be left to January 20th or thereafter on the assumption that the above will allow at least two of the companies involved to make it that far.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:03PM
This going to be broadcast online anywhere?
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:04PM
@Cluzo-
Highly underrated but delicious burgers to be had (without the insane lines that occur at Shake Shack, Burger Joint, etc) at Molly's at 22nd and 3rd. Actual sawdust on the floor Irish pub. Delicious.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:05PM
The Detroit 3 are getting a giant bridge loan to nowhere.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:05PM
4. Give every current employee of GM and Chrysler $1 million and tell them they don't have to show up for work anymore. This is far cheaper than keeping either company afloat.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:06PM
too socialisty.....still read, though
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:09PM
I'm too Somali Piratey, can't read.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:10PM
I second 40 re Molly's
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:12PM
Since GMAC is going to be a bank holding company, can't they just give them the money and tell GMAC to loan to the the auto companies.
Posted by Investorcluzo , Nov 20, 2008 2:17PM
burger joint is good for lunchtime excursions, but I was thinking something for pre-thurs night activities...any votes for corner bistro?
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:18PM
I can't believe you guys are still referencing the wideclops...DB is like a day care program where everyone has Aspergers
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:21PM
Spotted Pig has a great burger, nice crowd.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:22PM
Cluzo - Dumont Burger in Williamsburg or Stoned Crow on 6th Ave and Washington St.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:25PM
I have Aspergers.
-phobos.
Posted by Investorcluzo , Nov 20, 2008 2:26PM
interesting, never been to the stoned crow...need to keep it on the isle of manhattan tonight, no offense to dumont.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:29PM
@48 wideclops has been awoken and let out of its lair.
we must reference wideclops from this day forward on DB with reverence and awe if we are to reamin in its good graces.
please, man, do not anger the wideclops.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:31PM
Hank Paulson is an asshole.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:31PM
1. $25B, as reported
2. UAW retrenchment
3. exec comp restrictions
4. debt / preferred structure
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:32PM
I am glad I have Hank on my fantasy stock market crashers team... he is always worth at least 100 down points.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:33PM
$25B will cover OE through feb/march, that's it.
such a bad plan.
-phobos.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:36PM
why the fuck did they stop CLZ8 trading? what the fuck!
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:37PM
I predict in the future greater regulations. The oversight committee will be headed by Wideclops
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:41PM
@58, last trading day Bo. It's all right though, if you went off short and need to make delivery there are a few guys in the news recently sitting on a million barrels who are probably willing you sell you some.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:43PM
I predict a new Cabinet level “Department Of Automotive Department”. They'll be tasked with level-setting the tablestakes, orchestrating the core-competencies, and leveraging the strategic partnerships in the going-forward space.
I don't want no Expedition. I want a Exhibition!
Thanks.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:44PM
#58.....um....last trading day?
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:45PM
Wideclops 2012. Bess can be her running mate.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:48PM
@54...comment of the day award!
Posted by Clown Capital , Nov 20, 2008 2:48PM
@56
Bess,
You absolutely HAVE to start doing a post/topic comment of the day. #56 stand up and take your ovation! roflmao...
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:51PM
@60-----"Bo".....!!!!!! Well played, sir/madam! Well played.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:54PM
wideclops has already entered my everyday lexicon
Posted by Investorcluzo , Nov 20, 2008 2:56PM
@40 - good call on molly's, forgot about that place, I usually hit that place for after-hours beers.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:58PM
thank goodness for S&P: they just cut Ford to CCC+ from B-
are they reprising the ol' AIG "joke"?
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:59PM
wideclops has already entered my everyday lexicon
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 2:59PM
I guess the old joke FORD = F ound O n R oad D ead really applies here.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 3:01PM
Option 4.
Start drilling oil on every square inch of US soil that has oil. Take as much from Iraq as possible right now at $35 a barrel. Gas now $1 at the pump.
Tell GM & F to stop building those little POS cars nobody wants and build as many SUV's amd PU trucks as you can sell. There will be much demand and thats where the big money is.
Stop demonizing oil. There is no energy source that gives even colse to that kind of bang for the buck. No one in this country wants to ride on a hydrogen bomb or drive a car that will run out of power 20 miles from home.
O'yea, tell the unions to F off and take a pay cut or go dig their own graves now.
Does anyone F-ing understand?
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 3:02PM
Potential new Dealbreaker swag: "Wideclops Capital, LLC" coffee cup?
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 3:09PM
Any info on MER jobs today?
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 3:11PM
@74 you're fucked
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 3:15PM
MER transaction not closing anytime soon: end of Dec
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 3:17PM
Ok so can someone explain what just happen? Did Washington just put America on pause until the 8th of December?
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 3:22PM
Ok so can someone explain what just happen? Did Washington just put America on pause until the 8th of December?
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 3:24PM
The best idea I've heard in the last few days comes from an unlikely source, the actor Ashton Kutcher on the Bill Maher show - who repeated the suggestion that the auto industry go meet with the oil industry - their partner in crime - and ask them for a bailout. At least we know ExxonMobil can afford it!
Ashton Kutcher, next Treasury Secretary!
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 3:31PM
who or what is this wideclops?
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 3:33PM
@80
Check the Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan threads from yesterday and today, respectively.
Posted by Anal_yst , Nov 20, 2008 3:34PM
@79
AK must read DB cus i've seen that mentioned here a few times (and on LoSC as well I believe)
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 3:34PM
goddamn... the effin' "Kutchie Monster" has the best idea? goodness, that's the equivalent of Joe Kennedy hearing stock tips from the shoeshine boy...
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 3:41PM
A black guy just called into CSPAN and said the government is too concerned with the management of these companies. Does it really matter what kind of shape GM, Ford and Chrysler are in if no one can afford a car (let alone get financing)?
Support the American auto worker.
Thank you.
Trip W.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 3:42PM
Well the news conference is over, and they just want to keep the ball rolling, and force the Big 3 to come up with a business plan.
Here's my guess for how the whole thing plays out: GM, Ford, or both file for Chapter 11 before February 1 (possibly before January 1). At that point, the company can renegotiate contracts. OK, nothing new there. Now the curveball: a brokered deal financed by the federal government to merge Ford and GM into one company. With the company largely free from union contracts, the merger can go through, the companies can develop a plan for solvency, and the government agrees to pay for it all. Just a thought. Merger will further enable cost-cutting. I'm not sure how bankruptcy laws work, but there may be some way to fenangle the contracts even from the non-bankrupt company in there so that they can renegotiate those as well. Overall, costs will be cut, and the deal will go down quick.
For traders: this is a difficult proposition to trade. When you throw bankruptcy in, the short the buyer, long the bought strategy doesn't exactly work, as the assumption is that the company being bought will have a stock value of zero since it will be in bankruptcy.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 3:49PM
85
Bankruptcy is NOT an option. The politicians are just grand standing... "we want to know what your plan with the 25 billion is".... that's funny.... what was aig's plan? Oh that's right... the plan was to pop bottles of cris and when the money ran out they could simply ask for more.
The big three will get their money.... we just have to put up with this bullshit dog and pony show for a few more weeks.
Support the big three!!! Don't let Detroit die!!
Trip W.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 3:49PM
#85 - yeah yeah but what would Ashton do?
Posted by Investorcluzo , Nov 20, 2008 3:53PM
@84 - how do you know it was a "black guy"? be careful...
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 4:09PM
UAW wages weren't a concern when americans only bought from the big 3. But management started putting out garbage and americans turned their back on considering big three autos. they have turned things around but it's hard to win back customers who have no issues with their asian/euro autos. but it's time for americans to wake up and realize they DO make good cars now and it's time to support your fellow americans. listen, i'm a pompous asshole and my parents make millions of dollars a year but i'm still a democrat and i still support american auto workers by buying american cars. my hybrid escalade pulls dime pieces just as well as a 6-series bimmer. stop supporting communism, start supporting american companies. that's how we get out of this mess. get back to those numbers in the 70s when 90% of americans drove a car from the big three.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 4:17PM
@88
because the caller ID said: "Uncle Tom's Cabin"
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 4:18PM
@ 89
what are pompous asshole associate #s?
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 4:21PM
@87 - WWAD ... which, coincidentally, is what they're going to blow on the three degenerate crack whores (ok, 2.1 and counting down)
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 4:36PM
@89, the plain and simple truth is that Detroit, on whole, makes a crappy product that most educated consumers don't want to buy. i'm not saying do away with the Big 3 completely, but they need some restructuring, just like the airlines did. the unions can either go along with the game and try to save a piece for itself. or they can grandstand, posture and try to call in political capital in an attempt to preserve its outdated benefits position. once the companies are in BK, the jig is up for them. federal judges, at least at the district court on up, sit for life and don't really give a shit about the political ramifications of busting up benefit contracts and putting people out of work.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 4:47PM
Bankruptcy judges do not enjoy lifetime appointments. Although 14 years is a long time.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 4:56PM
@94, you are correct. that's why I said district court level. admittedly, it is a little different for bankruptcy court judges, but its not like they run for office with the direct support of organized labor like some politicians do.
Posted by guest , Nov 20, 2008 5:12PM
@91 your characterization of me in inaccurate... I work for my dad and for the most part live a life of leisure eg. inviting 20 y/o under grad dime pieces to our vacation house in park city
There are so many bitter nerds on db lately..... sorry all of that studying, lack of vagina, and 6 figures of educational debt got you no where in life.... get your weight up not your hate up.
Posted by Novice , Nov 20, 2008 11:34PM
@89/96 I hate to interrupt your creeping but the preferred route is for your dad to buy your way into HBS and coast from there until he kicks it in flagrante. Admittedly it might be a little difficult for someone stupid enough to think that subsidizing other morons by buying chrome shit pulls women, but where there's a checkbook there's a way.
Please put me in touch with your trophy stepmom so that I can pass my advice along.