• 05 Dec 2008 at 8:15 AM

Opening Bell: 12.05.08

Picture 296.pngHarvard To Issue $600MM In Bonds (DJNewsPlus)
Reeling from the not-so-gentle donkey punch of YTD, Harvard is issuing $600MM in Bonds to redeem some of their outstanding debt and terminate some SWAP agreements. J.P. Morgan is leading the underwriters, and UBS (queen of the Swiss tax evasion underworld) is leading the retail sales of the obligations.
Merrill Deal Goes To Vote (WSJ)
Shareholders from both sides are set to vote today in one of the most ass backwards acquisitions of the century; this ranks top three with Bear’s sale to J.P. Morgan, and the FED sponsored collapse of Lehman.
If I had a vote in this (I don’t) I would vote against it, if for no other reason than the preservation of some part of our banking system from a historical view. Given the recent packages handed down, Merrill is more than capable of surviving.
Also, in re: “Merrill brokers have teasingly mocked the “spirit points’ that Bank of America managers dole out as an employee rewards. The points can be redeemed for golf clubs, televisions and such. BofA declines to comment” — I promise they’re not “teasing”, because that’s just sad: cram your spirit points.
Morgan Stanley Widens Goldman Sachs Gap (Reuters)
Joining the dog pile, Morgan analyst Patrick Pinschmidt “now expects Goldman to report a loss of $4.45 a share for the quarter, compared with his prior view of a loss of $1.09.”
$5 seems to be the consensus across analysts, which means that the losses will either be in the $9 range, or the $1 range, with a +/- 1 point swing potential if a dead hooker is found anywhere near Broad between now and report.


Retail Numbers In Toilet (NYTimes)
Economically it matters that things aren’t selling, but only because prices are bloated. Let’s use scooters as an example: given the recent increase in oil prices, let’s say that the price of scooters jumps through the roof – but the cost increase isn’t materials driven, it’s S/D driven. Companies adjust their production capabilities/costs in the long run to reflect the new cost of the product, leading to higher operating expenses. Everything goes great for 2/3 years, and all of the sudden a recession hits, and the price of gas goes to nothing; the scooter company is screwed. Not only is its product overpriced for the market (and thus not selling) the operating model that they’ve adopted in the interim is inefficient given the new circumstances.
This is what retailers are going to be facing going forward: prices have been on the rise for so long that it was a reasonable assumption to forecast continued inflationary pressures. Thus, operating models are inefficient given the recent downturn in pricing structures due to the velocity of money waning.
Bear/J.P. Morgan Deal Lawsuits Dismissed (WSJ)
Shareholders consolidated lawsuits brought in reaction to the $1B price tag associated with the company have been dropped, citing corporate veil.
Waiting To Hear About Jobs (Reuters)
The article is calling for the sharpest drop in Jobs numbers in 26 years, which shouldn’t have any affect on the market (but it probably will). Jobs numbers should already be priced in their individual sectors (and they are priced in their individual sectors) – so any moves on this data are fear oriented.
Jobs numbers report at 8:30 (ET) and Credit numbers report at 3:00 (ET).
Update: “Nonfarm payrolls plunged a larger-than-expected 533,000 in November, the U.S. Labor Department said Friday. The unemployment rate, which is calculated using a separate survey of households, rose 0.2 percentage point to 6.7%, the highest since October 1993.” (WSJ)

–William Richards

Comments (50)

  1. Posted by AJ | December 5, 2008 at 8:35 AM

    Ewww jobs (I’m very insightful at 8:30 in the morning)

  2. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 8:41 AM

    That picture gave me a massive erection. Time for another night in Harvard…

  3. Posted by bittergreen | December 5, 2008 at 8:41 AM

    Also reedamable for golf-clubs: cash. Also good for lap dances and narcotics. Not so much with spirit points.

  4. Posted by bittergreen | December 5, 2008 at 8:42 AM

    Also reedamable for golf-clubs: cash. Also good for lap dances and narcotics. Not so much with Spirit Points.

  5. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 8:44 AM

    After forcing out Larry Summers I’d be surprised if Harvard managed another positive return in the next 86 years. That was the dumbest move out of Boston since the Red Sox traded Ruth. And we know how that worked out.
    -Curse of the Summino

  6. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 8:46 AM

    533000 wow. Some anonymous 100 of the are from Carlyle…

  7. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 8:49 AM

    who’s in the picture?

  8. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 8:52 AM

    i’d give her a not so gentle donkeypunch, after some dutch rodeo and a lot of stuffing..

  9. Posted by VOL IS KING | December 5, 2008 at 8:56 AM

    yawn, we’re cracking 10% unemployment before this is over. Wait till the morons in congress let GM fail, it’ll be lehman all over x100..

  10. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 8:59 AM

    @7 Rashida Jones.

  11. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 9:00 AM

    Rashida Jones (on the Office for a bit) and daughter of mogul Quincy Jones

  12. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 9:07 AM

    We are all so fucking fucked.

  13. Posted by William Richards | December 5, 2008 at 9:12 AM

    @12 Chill. Actual numbers have only only met or exceeded Consensus on the positive side three times in the past year: months 05, 06, 08.
    The consensus numbers are pure Academic BS, traders/analysts should have actual numbers marked into prices.

  14. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 9:14 AM

    @13
    I hope 12 read that before he jumped out of the window.

  15. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 9:15 AM

    @7 she was in the office last season.

  16. Posted by Anal_yst | December 5, 2008 at 9:15 AM

    I find it very hard to believe a wealthy, well-connected, daughter of a famous entertainment mogul found her way into Harvard. Really, I’m shocked, shocked I tell you.

  17. Posted by NAS Keflavik boi | December 5, 2008 at 9:18 AM

    @ 11 ==
    So that’s Peggy Lipton’s kid?? I lusted after her in a very prepubescent way whilst watching MOD SQUAD back in the day…

  18. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 9:20 AM

    Is it odd but I picture that cover girl as how Bess looks…

  19. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 9:23 AM

    why do all of you guys think Bess is hot? She might be, but as far as i know there are no pictures of her so she might as well be a wideclops. A lot of the myth comes from this one online picture thats actually kate bosworth..
    I heard EP is really hot though.

  20. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 9:25 AM

    @19- actually, some of us have met bess, so we know.

  21. Posted by NAS Keflavik boi | December 5, 2008 at 9:26 AM

    @ 19 — stop dissing the wideclops! I’d rather have a wideclops than a “beady eye” ANY DAY

  22. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 9:29 AM

    @17- yes, PL’s daughter. they also have another one http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/06Zj22ngE8an3/340x.jpg

  23. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 9:30 AM

    @20 you sound like that chump from the x-files. It’s a girl, not extraterrestrial intelligence. You seem pretty impressed though, so apparently she is out of your league…

  24. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 9:31 AM

    @19- “i heard ep is really hot.”
    yes, i’m sure your pseudononymous internet girlfriend is extremely attractive.

  25. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 9:36 AM

    @24 no no, a friend of mine once tried to pick up a pretty hot and snarky asian girl in a bar in soho. She said she worked in PE and wrote a blog about it, declined to be more specific. He failed picking her up – he doesnt have the 12″ magic stick I’m swinging – but he talked about her for weeks. Then, a while back he got all excited when he found goingprivate. He swears it must be her..

  26. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 9:38 AM

    @25- he’s obviously an idiot because ep is not asian.

  27. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 9:44 AM

    @26 wow you seem to know everyone here, and you sound a lot like a guy that used to post under er666 untill he got butchered on the message board a couple of days back after being creepy…

  28. Posted by Anal_yst | December 5, 2008 at 9:45 AM

    @ 25
    fail

  29. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 9:47 AM

    ep is not american, but she is decidedly not asian. try again.

  30. Posted by redpandot | December 5, 2008 at 9:58 AM

    “american” what does that even mean?

  31. Posted by redpandot | December 5, 2008 at 9:59 AM

    I mean in relation to @29′s comment???

  32. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 10:00 AM

    This proves Harvard is a joke. I hope they lose another 15 bil. She is a smokeshow however
    All nepotism, HBS grads are a bunch of tards in the working world.

  33. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 10:01 AM

    Fine. The point is, i don’t care what EP or Bess looks like or not looks like. I’m here for the funny content.
    But some, even many, of you, including the commenters above here seem to have a very unhealthy obsession with / admiration for in particular Bess. It is really a bit creepy. I’m not judging, but some of you may be running into a serious inability to form a relation due to your unhealthy focus on a writer of a blog. Who is probably like princess Leila to a 13y old starwars fan: so far out of you league that if her league exploded, it would take days before you would here the sound.
    just saying…

  34. Posted by Lowly Assistant | December 5, 2008 at 10:01 AM

    Haha! I love the drawing.
    http://www.manhattanmedia.com/02138/

  35. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 10:02 AM

    31 I grew up in an Italian neighborhood. American means basically any white person who wasn’t Polish, Jewish or Irish. Sort of a person with no determinable ethnicity. When I got older I realized it meant WASP.

  36. Posted by VOL IS KING | December 5, 2008 at 10:04 AM

    uh oh, looks like Bess and EP were included in that 533,000 #. Well its been fun people.

  37. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 10:05 AM

    Did anyone hear about a 5150 on Cliff A? He was a hot mess yesterday.

  38. Posted by Investorcluzo | December 5, 2008 at 10:28 AM

    what does one do with “spirit” points after wideclops makes you #533,001? do they expire and get added back as revenue? I knew kenny boy liked to manage the numbers, but this takes it to a new (low) level…
    as noted earlier – I dutifully voted my shares against the merger (not that it will help). mer was way overpriced and those clowns who did the fairness opinion should be shot for comparing the deal to the disasterous credit suisse/dlj and ag edwards/wachovia deals.

  39. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 10:36 AM

    @35…you asshole. American is any person who is a citizen here not just fucking i-ties. Jerk off.
    Or wait did you come over on the mayflower or were you pochohontas’ father?
    Douche.

  40. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 10:48 AM

    39 Yeah, we came over on the Mayflower but I grew up in an Italian nabe. My family moved there cause they liked pizza. Read carefully: just saying that ethnics tend to think “american” means wasps. No judgement, just sayin.

  41. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 10:49 AM

    I’d wanna blow my load on her chest and watch her rub my cum into her tits like lotion

  42. Posted by onetwo | December 5, 2008 at 10:57 AM

    It’ll be 911 times a thousand…
    That’s right, 911,000.

  43. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 11:05 AM

    @41…simmer down sicko.

  44. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 11:08 AM

    oh man, here is a link to Radisha playing with her puppies.
    http://evilbeetgossip.film.com/category/rashida-jones/

  45. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 11:13 AM

    Wow….even in blog Bankers dont know how to react around a hot chick

  46. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 11:42 AM

    AG Edwards deal was only disastrous for the employees and shareholders of AG Edwards. It worked out great for Wachovia.

  47. Posted by Investorcluzo | December 5, 2008 at 11:44 AM

    @44 – two of harvard’s finest at work….

  48. Posted by guest | December 5, 2008 at 12:55 PM

    I’m going restuff that girl

  49. Posted by VOL IS KING | December 5, 2008 at 10:39 PM

    @44:
    I have a dream that starts out just like that

  50. Posted by guest | December 6, 2008 at 1:31 PM

    does anyone give a fuck what any investment bank wonk says anyways?
    $200 a barrel oil anyone?
    When will anyone learn

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