Opening Bell: 12.08.08

Picture 303.pngMerrill Hesitant At Thain's Request For $10MM Bonus (Reuters)
Merrill's board is pushing back because of the climate and the fact that Thain sold the company to a retail bank (though the latter isn't explicitly or even implicitly listed). I'll give it to Thain though: it takes a sack to push for the money given all of the variables. My 2 cents: the $10MM should go to therapy for the poor Merrill souls who now have to hear the words "Spirit" and "Points."

Goldman Considers Options, Branding (FT)
"Even Mr Hintz, who predicts a change in Goldman's model, understands that the brand remains sacrosanct and so he doubts the firm will acquire a conventional bank. "If you acquire a bank, you've got Community Reinvestment Act requirements," he says, referring to US banking rules that require banks to lend in all segments of their communities. "It's hard for me to believe that Goldman executives are going to be out calling on Korean bodegas.""

Deutsche Borse, NYSE: No Deal (WSJ)
Deutsche Borse and NYSE Euronext have been kicking around the idea of a merger for a couple of months now, but there hasn't been much movement on it. The European exchange is valued at $12.67B, while the Euronext is valued at $5.67B - I see a high degree of cooperation going forward, but not a merger.

PE Firm May Have To Shore Up EMI (WSJ)
Terra Firma purchased the music giant last year just before the credit crunch for around GBP 2.4B in 2007, while the company owes Citi $4B in loans - GBP $10MM is required to keep the company from going into default.

"In a sign that the market increasingly thinks EMI could default on its loans, the price of insuring against a default by EMI is rising. It currently costs GBP 931,000 to insure GBP 10 million of EMI debt, up from GBP 868,000 a month ago, according to data provider Markit.

That said, EMI's internal forecasts are that it will generate enough cash. EMI expects to generate GBP 280 million in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization in the fiscal year ending March 30, a person familiar with the matter said. If it meets this target, Terra Firma will likely avoid having to inject more cash into the business, the person said."

Moody's Default Estimates (DJNewsPlus)
"... the default rate on junk-rated companies rising to 3.1% in November from a revised 2.9% in October. Last month's figure is more than triple the prior year's 0.9%. Measured by dollar volume, the default rate rose to 2.5% in November from 2.4% in October and 0.6% a year earlier.

... U.S. and European junk-rated issuers, hitting 4.6% in the U.S. by year-end -- below last month's forecast of 4.9% -- and reaching 11% a year from now. European rates are expected to rise to 2.6% this month and soar to 13% a year from now...

Moody's speculative-grade corporate distress index ... grew to 51.8% in November from 48.5% in October and 8% a year earlier. November's level was again the highest since Moody's launched the index in 1996."


--William Richards

Comments

1

Posted by VOL IS KING , Dec 08, 2008 8:02AM

"It's hard for me to believe that Goldman executives are going to be out calling on Korean bodegas."

OMG!


Can someone please short these bastards into oblivion. Those partners will be working in that bodega when GS hits zero.

2

Posted by guest , Dec 08, 2008 8:23AM

Well why bother shaking down Korean bodegas when you can shake down the Ameircan taxpayer instead via the Paulsonator

3

Posted by Mortimus , Dec 08, 2008 8:25AM

Another Tip From Wall Street:
"Leave your stock certificates in your mother's attic."

http://www.dagblog.com/humor-satire/another-tip-wall-street-300

4

Posted by guest , Dec 08, 2008 8:39AM

Thain certainly has some set!
Is this an additional discretionary bonus on top of the guarantees the board doled out to himself, Montag, and now departed Krauss?

So far $25mm to Krauss, $90mm to Montag both of whom did squat for Merrill.

5

Posted by VOL IS KING , Dec 08, 2008 8:44AM

@ ZIP IT UP #4 that's the government's money anyway. Merrill flushed all its money down the CDO toilet so i don't even see why these board members get to pass judgment on anyone.

6

Posted by Goldman Sachs Neophyte , Dec 08, 2008 8:50AM

@1 and 2, stop belittling Goldman just because you don't work there.

- that guy from Goldman Sachs (a.k.a.: TGFGS)

7

Posted by guest , Dec 08, 2008 8:51AM

@1 yeah, keep shorting them so it costs them even less to take themselves private, idiot

8

Posted by guest , Dec 08, 2008 8:59AM

DOW Chemical to close 20 plants cut 5000 jobs.. Ford to cut 4616 Volvo jobs.. Citadel closes Tokyo office & cuts HK & Japan jobs.. Neovasc to cut 10% jobs.. Vail resorts cuts 50 jobs & suspends raises.. ArcelorMittal cutting jobs in Europe..

9

Posted by guest , Dec 08, 2008 9:14AM

#5, Zip it up? Hasn't the market seen enough crime perptrated by Merrill MDs since the days of Kim, Semerci, Mallach and Latanzio?
Since you are the VOL KING, what's the delta on Thain's chances of pulling off another heist?

10

Posted by VOL IS KING , Dec 08, 2008 9:23AM

sorry don't use black-scholes, can you translate this "delta" into realized vol points for me?


11

Posted by guest , Dec 08, 2008 9:33AM

Goldman already has to deal with the Community Reinvestment Act due to its ILC charter in Utah... and maybe NJ also? not big deal, they are already tainted

12

Posted by VOL IS KING , Dec 08, 2008 9:40AM

@9:

P.S. I'm pretty sure Thain is the only CEO on Wall Street who actually realized how fucked he was. If they hadn't merged, they'd be in the fail, with LEH and BSC.

13

Posted by guest , Dec 08, 2008 9:44AM

those bodegas probably pull in a mil after taxes, depending on location. more than what you fools make

14

Posted by guest , Dec 08, 2008 9:48AM

When I heard the Thain news this morning, any respect I had for him disappeared. How many people are you going to lay off with 3 months' severance? And $10 million would mean 100 $100K/year guys could keep their jobs while you muddled along with the triple-digit millions you already have? Crap, even *I* am getting disgusted by Wall St. and it's me-me-me focus and I work there.

15

Posted by guest , Dec 08, 2008 10:21AM

I can't find the tips button, so I'll just put it here.
Okay, here's the latest scoop:
In the U.S. and the U.K. at least, the companies will maintain separate broker-dealers for the time being. However, starting on December 31, 2008, ML & BofA equity research will be combined and branded “BAS-ML,” use the ML rating system and publish in the ML format using its publishing platform.
And...there will be no duplication of Equity Research coverage.

16

Posted by guest , Dec 08, 2008 10:24AM

"BAS-ML" = "Buy And Sell Money-Losers"?

17

Posted by guest , Dec 08, 2008 10:31AM

the Community Reinvestment stuff is not difficult at all. Think of all the unlikely instituitions that are already in compliance: Brown Bros Harriman, Bessemer Trust, US Trust (pre BOA), the old Morgan Guaranty Trust Co.

18

Posted by guest , Dec 08, 2008 10:40AM

#15 Thanks. This is just for equities? What about other areas of the firm such as Fixed Income Commodities, or Currencies?

19

Posted by guest , Dec 08, 2008 10:59AM

@16 - Big Assed Sado-Masochistic Losers

20

Posted by guest , Dec 08, 2008 11:07AM

@19: Bring A Suitcase - Major Layoffs

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